What 2028 will look like if the electorate shifts 15 points

 So....we've been noticing some trends, whether it be the Wisconsin SCOTUS seat, or that one seat here in PA in Lancaster county that shifted 15 points since the 2024 election, but Trump is going down massively in popularity. What he's doing isn't popular, and it's actually pretty disastrous. Even if the dems learn nothing from 2024, 2028 could be a lay up if we see the country shift as massively as these early elections indicate. I mean, just to give you an idea of what 2028 would look like if the country shifted this much, this is what we can expect the map to be:

Yikes, a 15 point shift is so extreme my model isn't even programmed to account for it. ALL the states I listed will shift blue, including Florida, Texas, Iowa, and Alaska. However, nothing past that shifts. The next state to my knowledge is Kansas, which went red by 16.2%, so a 15 point shift still has it going to Trump by 1.2%. Still, that's a very close pink state if it showed directly. Beyond that, we got states like South Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, and Montana which all went in the 18-20 point zone. They will be down to 3-5 points, so also visibly less than solid red here. 

Keep in mind, my model is intended to predict elections and I typically dont go beyond 12 points because that's 3 standard deviations and the probability of something going out of those bounds is around 1 in 1000. So this model isn't set up to account for shifts that big. if I see shifts that big, I would likely just rebuild another map. Still, I did want to show what this would look like if it happened.

I doubt we'll see a shift THIS big. I mean, we're gonna shift, but even in 2020, the map only shifted around 4-6 points in the polling, although Biden could have possibly done far worse, leading to a map that would have been closer to 10-15. Keep in mind Harris did damage control and Biden is predicted to possibly do around 7 points worse than this map, so maybe this:

Yikes, that's also pretty apocalyptic. So could a 15 point shift happen in one election cycle? yeah, if you F up enough, and if the country was sane, I would say that yeah, Trump should give us a shift like that, but sadly this country isn't sane and I still think 40%+ of the country will defend the guy no matter how bad he gets. Of course a 15 point shift does only mean the 2028 nominee wins the popular vote by 13 points, which is about the margins we're seeing in special elections...

Still, it's possible those special elections just represent low turnout situations and the actual results would be closer. Still, even an 8 point shift to the left would give us a strong win. We'd get the 7 swing states, but that next crop of states would still go red...

 

This is a decisive win for democrats, but not so much of a death blow that the GOP can never recover. I would say given where this election was this time, the GOP losing Florida/Texas/Iowa/Ohio would be akin to the dems losing like, New Jersey, New York, or Illinois. Pack it up, you're DONE if that happens.

If I had to guess what happens in 2028, I do think some variation of a 319-219 map is one of the most likely scenarios. Any shift between 5.5-10 points would give us that map. It's basically the democrats' equivalent of the 226-312 map Trump got this time.

Today was a very bad day

 So, yesterday, we had a ray of sunshine, which was weird given it was april fools day. I didnt have a good joke this year and wasnt particularly motivated so I didn't bother. But yeah good day. Well, today, we get the bad day.

So it's liberation day. The day where Americans will be liberated from their money as Trump decided to tariff the everloving fudge out of the entire world. It's gonna make prices go up, especially on electronics. Seriously, hope you got what you need for the next 4 years, because this is gonna be bad.

Speaking of which, the switch 2 was announced today. And the prices are eyewatering. I didnt buy the first switch because they wanted like $200-300 with $60 games that rarely go on sale and I found that kind of insane. Not to mention I have little interest in the system outside of like the 5-10 first party games I'd play and given the cost, eh, I'd rather play on PC. Quite frankly I'm a guy of relatively limited means, i cant always afford the best and the greatest, and yeah, if switch was my MAIN console, that would be one thing, but PC gaming is my main platform, so yeah. Buying switch stuff would take away from my ability to afford what i want on PC so PC is my main platform as its basically the same as Xbox/PS these days. 

 The switch 2 though, they want fricking $450 for that with $80 games, $90 if you go physical, which there's no point in doing since physical games dont even use traditional cartridges but a weird system of cards that are linked to digital downloads which you can only play if you insert the card in your system. Why does this system exist? WHO KNOWS!? They could've just sold CD keys to their online store instead. This is stupid. heck the whole thing is stupid. Like, the more I look at the announcement and the specifics, the less I like about it.  

Even worse, to make this entire crapshow come together like cold and hot air during a tornado warning, the tariffs might make the switch 2 even MORE expensive, where the console costs $600. This is speculation, and it's also been speculated maybe those prices INCLUDE the tariffs, but yeah, this is a dumpster fire. If you feel like god is punishing you for voting for donald trump and this is the equivalent of the frogs and the hail in the 10 plagues, you're probably right. Or maybe you just F'ed around and now you're finding out. 

Either way, those of us who didnt vote for trump have to suffer this crapstorm too. I really hate this guy. Like, I never liked him, but i especially DESPISE second term him. First term, well, he sucked, we all knew he sucked, but at least he was under control. Now he's just going wild. And his policies are a disaster. And everything this guy touches is a disaster. Hopefully this is the shock therapy we need to encourage an entire generation of americans to never vote for him again. Maybe this is the second coming of herbert hoover we need to get the second coming of FDR. Who knows? Either way, the Biden economy looked great compared to this crap, yet the same people complaining about that are now cheering this guy on like a group of dumb seals.

Today was a good day

 So, two pieces of news I want to report on today. First, the liberal won the special election for the Wisconsin supreme court seat. Elon musk dumped tons of money into this and this was framed as a pivotal race that would decide the fate of western civilization, given how pivotal wisconsin is for national politics right now. Musk's candidate was defeated.

Actually three things. Musk is planning to step down from DOGE in may, citing mission accomplished after trying to cut a trillion dollars from government. Bye, don't let the door hit you on the way out! Seriously, F that guy...

In other news, the democrats actually grew a spine. Cory Booker, a democrat I'm normally somewhat critical of for his opposition to medicare for all, did a 25 hour filibuster the old fashioned way to protest Trump's medicaid cuts.  Gotta respect the big fricking balls on this guy. it used to be that you had to be on the senate floor talking for hours and hours and hours, you know, taking a principled stand, not just go "we're filibustering for 2 years" meaning you need 60 votes to pass literally ANYTHING. Well, Cory did it the old fashioned way like Strom Thurmond. And he broke Thurmond's record. So history was made today. A democrat actually stood up for something in a substantive way, and he broke the old record, which is actually a big fricking deal. 

You always hear these democrats being like "well we cant do anything, what do you expect from us?" LITERALLY THIS. So let's give this guy a round of applause for actually doing something to oppose trump. More of this, please. I dont mind if you do it the "new way" either. If Mitch McConnell did it, then we should do. But yeah, I do respect symbolic acts of protest and defiance too. 

At the bare minimum just dont be complicit with the opposition. To the likes of Chrissy Houlihan and John Fetterman, who actually do represent me personally, shame on you, do better. Be like Cory here. Or at least dont cave to the republicans. Im not gonna ask every single democrat to do a strom thurmond (or shall we say, cory booker) length filibuster. But, ya know, just....dont be complicit. If your actions can compared to vichy france, don't do what you're thinking of doing.

Discussing Francesca Fiorentini on the Leftist Mafia

 So, FF, after her uncerimonious booting from TYT, went on the Leftist Mafia with like 5 other creators, some of whom I follow. And...I know I'm beating a dead horse, but once again, I feel like I need to defend TYT here and explain why these guys are wrong.

It's the "leftist" thing. "Leftists" are some of the most obnoxious, insufferable people in the world, and no one outside of their little clique likes them. They are gatekeepy buttholes to put it bluntly. They loudly virtue signal their moral superiority and crap on everyone else, claiming TYT are "centrists" now, as if they're mainstream democrats. Quite frankly, they think they own the term "left" and are just like "well you're not REALLY a leftist!" if you're not as left wing as them. 

 I mean, it's kinda hard to be a sane leftie these days. TYT are a lot like me these days, walking this line between being more left wing and more populist than democrats, so DEFINITELY not a centrist, but also not THESE guys, who crap on people like us for not being as left as them. Maybe being more willing to pick our battles and compromise, especially on their precious little social issues.

When TYT compromises on issues like transgenderism and crime, here's what Cenk is thinking. "Okay, we need to meet normies where they're at." Like with Cenk's 2024 run, he looked at polling and he said, okay, I'm going to run on a platform explicitly supported by over 50% of the country. He ran, for example, on a public option, which had like 65% support, but not single payer, which has like 45% support. He didn't embrace UBI, my big purity test, which also has like 45% support. So there are flaws to this, but still, I get it, I respect it. The democrats, for all they speak of electability, are REAL centrists. And they will be like, ignoring issues with like overwhelming majority support and saying "no, we cant do that, that's not electable" when in reality, THEYRE out of sync with the country, being so far right they're not in touch with voters. And I do think the big takeaway from the 2024 election is to be more progressive and populist on economics. This doesn't mean we have unlimited latitude, and again, my biggest key issues are actually slightly under 50% approval, somewhere in the 40s, which I see as still good. Honestly, I think we can still win elections even with approval in the 40s on certain issues, and we can gain and increase support if we want to, but okay, yeah, I do understand where TYT is coming from.

But...here's where the left IS out of sync on the issues, it IS on things like crime, and trans issues, which is where TYT are triangulating. They're looking at the normies, and they're like okay, this is where these guys are at, I'm going to triangulate on these specific social issues to meet them where they are. Again, you can dislike this, there are arguments to be had both ways, but I believe that this is a respectable opinion. Ana was assaulted by a homeless person, I can see her, and normies, not wanting homeless people harassing them and contributing to crime. Sure, from the left, we can point out that this is an issue with capitalism and blah blah blah, again, I'm the UBI guy, I'm willing to have that discussion, BUT, leftists and their obsession with virtue are like HOW DARE YOU SPEAK THAT WAY ABOUT THE "UNHOUSED", as if, merely admitting that a problem exists and that peoples' feelings are invalid for thinking the way they do and they need to be CORRECTED, and yes, they do use the word "unhoused" because they think calling them "homeless" is too mean and politically incorrect. Ya know, because these are the language policers.

Which is how Ana got going on her shift to the center on trans issues. Again, "birthing persons". Normies think "what the hell?" but the left is like HOW DARE YOU NOT LIKE THAT WORD and act like it's a mortal sin to not be morally pure on trans issues. Even though, as TYT pointed out, only like 20% of people actually support trans people in sports of their preferred gender.

 I mean, again, I'm willing to fight with 45%, but 20?! Let it go, man. We ain't gonna win that one. And that's what TYT thinking. They're picking their battles. Now, I get the left wing perspective that we should try to shift that. And I do think there's an argument for that. Like, people are also opposed to minors transitioning. I think it's just basic medical science that we should let them. If anything wading into the trans people in sports thing made me more firm on that, because the sooner people can transition, the closer to their preferred gender their final outcome will be. If you make someone transition post puberty, you're dealing with an adult body that went through massive changes and not all of those changes can be fully undone. So...it makes sense to allow that, but yeah. I can see both sides here. 

 And here's the thing. TYT and Cenk and Ana arent crapping on what they call the "max left" or what I call SJWs because of a simple disagreement. Some wanna push for more rights regardless of unpopularity, believing in shifting the overton window, and some wanna play it more safe. I get it. These are real debates our side should have. BUT....for all the toxicity that the left acts like Cenk and Ana are throwing at them, the reality of the situation is that the left probably fired first. Because they almost always do. TYT is a huge channel, and being fairly active in forums surrounding these kinds  of content creators, I can tell you that the toxicity I dealt with is off the charts. The second Ana failed to pass the purity test of accepting the term "birthing persons", they probably got hundreds, if not thousands of comments dogpiling onto them. I would know, I've read these kinds of comments on forums. And if I were them I'd be pissed too. hell just interacting with this segment of weirdos online really sours my view of them. If one reads my blog and sees the tone I had toward SJWs in 2016, it was relatively cordial and charitable compared to where I am today. It used to be "we're all on the same side" and now I'm more "F these guys." I'm like that for a reason. Because I realize I'm arguing with a bunch of ideological radicals who won't compromise and who have nothing but seething hatred toward those who don't agree with them.

Even the way FF was talking on the leftist mafia tonight kind of let on to that fact. She was like "I only called him a ##### and said he was brain damaged, it's not like I called him a racial slur or something." I mean, REALLY?! And again, shows the insularity of these people. Apparently insulting your boss to his face multiple times and being kindly asked to stop multiple times before he fires you is a huge offense and he's totally being the meany here....but at least i didn't use a racial slur? That's your defense? GTFO of here...

Here's the simple reality here. NO ONE LIKES YOU. It isn't JUST that you have extreme positions. It's that you guys are a bunch of toxic ###hats who have burnt bridges with anyone who isn't you, and most of the country HATES you for it. Like, seriously, if there's one thing that me, TYT, and even MAGA can all agree on, it's that you guys are jerks and that we all hate you for varying but similar reasons. For me and TYT, it's more a tone thing, it's more a toxicity thing, more a purity thing. MAGA, it runs deeper, they're an ideological foe, and they hate you for THAT. But either way, most people REALLY DONT LIKE YOUR BRAND OF POLITICS. 

 So when people like me, or TYT are trying to excommunicate you from our movements, it's because we understand that you're a toxic element that needs to be buried as quickly as possible before it contaminates the rest of us. I admit, there is a lot of room for America to move "left." There is a huge wide ideological swath between say, centrist democrats, and the far left, TYT is a little to my right, but still left of the dems. I'm maybe a little to the left of them, more in line with, say, Kyle Kulinski overall. I'd say he's the closest analogue to me in the left wing YT space right now. Even then, Kyle is maybe a little to my left at times. Again, it's hard to say and it varies by issue.

But then you have the "leftists", who talk weird with their politically correct speak, and get absolutely toxic toward even social democratic types for not being as far "left" as them, and go on and on about their little virtues and values and theories, and honestly, no one likes you. NO ONE LIKES YOU! And that's why your approval rating is in the 20s. 

 Again, when people say we need to move the country left, they DONT mean YOU. They actually mean TYT. Or alternatively me, although even then, again, my biggest hills to die on are just under 50% approval to my knowledge. So maybe not AS far left as me, but going in that direction. TYT errs on the positive side of 50%, I'm willing to fight for policies I strongly believe in that are in the 40s, but these guys? The "max left?", you're at 20% or worse. Seriously. And while many of us would likely be willing to have honest and civil conversations about things, and I think even TYT would probably tolerate a difference in opinion if it's respectful, as there is some truth to those unpopular stances at times, it's the toxicity, the purity testing, and the complete and utter dogpiling onto those who aren't as extreme, that really makes that brand of politics unpalatable to Americans. 

Again, America needs to move left, but that doesn't mean they like "leftists." Learn the difference. There IS a huge difference there, after all. And that difference is the difference between what TYT is doing, and what the far left is doing. I'm sorry, Cenk is right, FF and the far left are wrong here.

Explaining how Musk/Trump are sabotaging government agencies

 So....social security is a third rail of American politics. It's kinda like basic income for seniors. Not quite, it is contribution based social insurance, but it tends to serve that function past a certain age for many people. You dont wanna touch this program. The public will go after you. But...let's face it, people like Musk have long sought to dismantle it and they're giving it their best shot.

So, how do they do this...without doing this? Well, first they claim that there's all of this fraud. There's no evidence of fraud, but they start going on about 150 year olds on social security. Then, they start cutting payments to random people, which they are doing. Ya know, claiming they're committing fraud. As Lutnick once said, "well the ones who complain are the ones committing fraud", which is nonsense, but they gotta play these games with people to push their agenda. In reality anyone who needs that money, which is virtually everyone over 66, is gonna raise hell if their benefits are cut.  

But...then DOGE is cutting the phone lines. Because old people dont know how to use computers well. So they're gonna complain on the phone. But because they're getting rid of the phone line, you're gonna have to go to an office or do it online to fix it.

But wait, then the website isn't working and keeps crashing from being overloaded. 

And then they fire tons of people working for it due to budget cuts. So they cant handle the load of seniors calling to complain.

End result, benefits cut, and then seniors cant get them restored. And then the right will say "government doesnt work, look at how bad this is" while pushing to privatize stuff further. It's all part of their plan. Kyle Kulinski covered this today, and I just wanted to give my analysis on it.  

But it's not just this, it's everything. They're trying to do it with stuff like voting too. They claim there's fraud, they kick people off of the rolls for being suspicious, they struggle to get back on and oh, would you look at that, now republicans win elections in a landslide.

Again, they're breaking democracy, and breaking our institutions. If we had checks and balances in congress, perhaps we could impeach this MFer, but without the house AND the senate, it will never pass. 

So...we're screwed for now, but I did want to give people an idea of what the game plan is, and how to see through it. Dont trust ANYTHING this administration says. They lie in order to justify pushing an extremist agenda most americans wouldnt agree to otherwise. Just giving people a heads up.

Can't keep up with the sheer amount of BS that Trump has done? We got you

 So...Trump is basically gish galloping his way to doing whatever he wants, as I discussed briefly last night. The thing is, if Trump does so many bad things in a short period of time, it overwhelms the human mind and they cant react to it all. I sure as heck ain't even keeping up with everything he does, although i do cover some of it. Well, if you want a more complete picture, have I got the site for you. It's TrumpFile.org, and it basically covers the entire life of the president and every messed up thing he's EVER done. It seems well documented, and yeah. Someone has to do it and I tip my hat to this guy. Just spreading the word...

Discussing Francesca Fiorentini getting booted from TYT

 So, Cenk Uygur kicked an unruly contributor off of his network in a recent bout of left wing infighting. This contributor has been a thorn in his side for a while, and I know many left wing circles I participate in are defending FF here, but honestly, I largely take Cenk's side.

This is a fight between Cenk being a moderate on social justice issues, and FF, who is basically a MAJOR SJW. Cenk has decided to moderate on trans issues in particular post election, and try to do outreach to the right on different topics, which has caught him flak, with some saying he will sit down with right wingers, but not with the social justice left. 

 First of all, I dont agree with Cenk much on the actual issue of going on right wing programs. I've discussed this previously, but do not believe that Cenk is actually doing anything productive there, and playing paddycakes with right wingers is actually not doing the left any favors, it just makes us look weak. Unless we discuss issues on our terms, we're just letting ourselves be used by the right, and while I agree that the establishment is the problem, it's a problem because it's right wing. Even the left side of it. 

On the other hand, on trans issue...I see where Cenk is coming from. Cenk is following public polling. He understands that things like trans women in sports is a losing issue, while FF argued in the above segment in favor of some heavyweight boxer becoming trans and fighting women. 

I mean, on the whole trans people in sports thing, I admit I dont have a strong opinion because of the complexities of the issue and it requiring far more research than I'm willing to do on it, BUT...I'll say this. The science should be followed, and the science is mixed. I do not take the FF position of we should be "inclusive" regardless of how people identify. If there are actual physical differences between trans women and cis women in womens' sports, that should be addressed. I am not of the opinion we should just force "inclusivity" no matter what. Which is why i dislike SJWs on the matter and believe FF is one. SJWs have their little ideas and doctrines of forcing acceptance for the sake of inclusivity at all costs, and if you disagree with them, you're a transphobe and a bigot. My own outlook is dependent on a mix of science, and a mix of libertarian principles. 

I'm going to be frank, I think that while trans women should be legally treated as cis women as much as makes sense, as i have those libertarian principles that support allowing people to just do what they wanna do, I DO recognize that there are some significant differences between trans women and cis women in terms of biology, and that despite whatever treatment they go through, they are not necessarily going to be the same as a cis woman. And in sports, yeah, sometimes they have different bone structures, hormone levels, strength levels, speed and stamina levels, etc. They're not completely and 100% the same as cis women. People dont wanna hear that, but it's true. And I'm normally willing to tell the little white lies we tell around trans people to make them feel accepted, BUT....let's be frank here, it's just white lies we tell in the name of acceptance. But...sometimes, when that stuff doesnt make sense, we gotta push back. Like I've had people say im a transphobe if i wouldnt sleep with a trans woman. Again, we're talking someone who was born a man, and decided to become a woman later on and got hormone treatments and surgeries and blah blah blah. No, I don't wanna do that. And neither do most cis straight men. Sorry, we don't like that stuff sexually. There's nothing wrong with that, other than the fact that it goes against some extremists' stance on inclusivity. Same with sports. Sometimes, biologically, we gotta admit that trans women arent the same as cis women. We can admit, maybe in 90% of situations, yeah, we should treat them as such, because, again, we wanna be inclusive, and we wanna let people live as they want, BUT....again, push comes to shove this debate comes down to whether you get so blinded by ideology you accept the lie to the bitter end, or, do you push back in the handful of situations where pushing back makes sense? And I will push back, push comes to shove. Cenk will too. And that's why Cenk wasn't accepted by the SJW left. 

But Cenk is right in a lot of ways. And Cenk tried to be cordial about it, but FF kept going after him and calling him out and trashing him, and then FF asked to be removed, so she was kicked off the network. Idk why so many people are siding with her over Cenk. Again, Cenk is RIGHT. This is an issue that is kinda killing democrats. I mean, he showed poll numbers and we're talking an issue were on the losing side of in a 20-80 kind of way (see timestamp 3:40 or so on that). And that's the thing. That's why "wokeness" is bad. We got this weirdo minority of people who are extremists and have views well outside of the American majority opinion on the matter...and she's going all in with that 20%, while Cenk is like, no, we need to win elections, let's go with the MAJORITY. 

Also, the reason Cenk won't sit down with SJWs and continually bashes them is because, well, you CANT sit down civilly with these people. It's their way or the highway. They're extremists who will scream at anyone for not toeing their line, and push comes to shove, we gotta actually push back. This drama has been going on for MONTHS now, I remember this issue was addressed previously. I even kind of remember discussing it before. If FF wants to continue to trash her boss openly despite him constantly asking her to tone it down, well, she brought it on herself. As I see it, most SJWs aren't reasonable people. It's their way, and if you dont agree with them 100% of the time, you're bad. You can agree with them like 80-90% on these issues, but if you disagree on that last 10-20%, you're just as bad in their eyes as someone who disagrees with them 100% of the time. There isnt much you can do about these people other than to say no, and to fight them and take the narrative back from them, because let's face it, if you let them, they'll just hijack your entire movement and drive it into the dirt in the name of their moral purity. It's what I realized back in 2016 when I wanted to push for economic progressivism and they decided to turn everything into identity politics and started attacking "Bernie bros" as class reductionists and the like. It's not that there isn't room in the movement for them. It's that they wanna be the star of the show, have the entire discussion center around them, and then they destroy whatever issues the movement was originally about. They did it to occupy wall street. They did it to bernie twice, they do it. They use their issues as a cudgel and purity test, and they bash anyone who isnt on board with them...even though 80% of the country isn't. And if anything, I'm finally happy to see sane lefties push back. Enough is enough. We're past peak wokeness. The era of wokeness is over. If there's any silver lining of 2024, it's that this crap is done, it's over, and while there are holdouts who remain, the spell has been broken and maybe the left can heal, recover, and focus on the issues that ACTUALLY win elections. 

So, to FF, bye Felicia. Wouldnt even know who you were if not for you constantly picking fights with Cenk. Have fun being as irrelevant as my own blog is now. Let the adults in the room talk. And for reference, I'm not a Cenk stan either. I've criticized him a lot too over the past year in particular. There's room for it. Just not when you are demonizing him as literally as bad as an alt righter for not agreeing with you 100% of the time.