So I've been trying to figure this out lately. There's been debate. As we know, we're in a weird political time. I believe that these times can be at least somewhat explained by VO Key's party realignment theory. He had a theory that there were generational coalitions that made up the parties, and once in a generation, they implode and remake themselves to fit the politics of the time. There are arguably at least six major realignments in American politics.
First Party System: Federalists vs Anti Federalists (1796-1828)
Second Party system: Jacksonian Democrats vs Whigs (1828-1860)
Third Party System: Lincoln Republicans vs Confederate Democrats (1860-1896)
Fourth Party System: Populist republicans and democrats (1896-1932)
Fifth Party System: New Deal democrats vs Eisenhower republicans (1932-1980)
Sixth Party System: Reagan republicans vs Clinton Democrats (1980-?)
As we know, there is some debate over the current era, and what path we are on. I've posited several theories in the past, but I think I have an idea what's going to happen next. I'm going to take a page from history here.
The transition from the fifth to sixth party system
So, the theory somewhat breaks down in the modern era. The strict 32-36 year period between alignments kind of broke down here, and we didn't transition clearly from 5th to 6th like we did the others. There arguably was some messiness in other alignments too. Both the transition between the 1st and 2nd and 2nd and 3rd had an election where the coalitions seemed to implode, before being remade (1824/1856). The realignment into the 6th was supposed to happen in 1968 but didn't. Or did it?
In a way it did. In 1968, we had George Wallace's third party run fracture the south off of the democratic party over civil rights.
In 1972, Nixon engaged in the southern strategy, attempting to woo these guys to the republicans over dog whistle politics.
However, Nixon imploded and in 1976 we got Carter, who basically temporarily revived the New Deal coalition. But then he crapped the bed and we got Reagan in 1980.
Reagan was THE realigning guy. He won over almost the whole country overwhelmingly. 1980 was THE moment, and in retrospect, I dont think we can deny that, that's where everything changed. Reagan came in like a bulldozer, and remade the country in his image, similar, to FDR. His administration was so successful it led to 12 years of uninterrupted republican party role and when the democrats came back, they moderated and spoke his language. They cobbled together whatever coalition they could, and that largely defines the political map we've had since. Yes, Clinton did win part of the south, but he established the democrats as socially liberal and fiscally centrist. And those have functionally been the coalitions since.
2016 and glimpses of the future
Now, if we follow the theory, 2016 should be the next realignment. And in a way it was, but it wasn't. I'm actually going to go with the whole "it wasn't" argument. It was more the DEalignment, similar to 1968. it was the year the 6th party system broke, BUT....I don't think the true 7th party system has emerged yet. And I don't think Trump is a successful enough realigning figure to pull it off.
2016 did give us glimpses of the future though. It split the country into four factions:
Establishment Republicans- Old guard republicans like Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, etc.
Establishment Democrats- Old guard democrats like Hillary Clinton
Anti Establishment Republicans- Trump and his populist MAGA brand
Anti Establishment Democrats- Bernie Sanders and his economic populism
So there are two divides, establishment vs anti establishment, and left vs right. Four factions, with different visions. But I don't think we actually saw a real realignment yet, and here's why.
Why we are still in the 6th party system
So I've been discussing the coalitions of the parties for years now. Especially the democrats, who seem somewhat torn between their efforts to reach out to "moderates" (establishment republicans) and bring them into the party, and the democratic party base, which is where most younger people are, who was a more progressive vision for the country. In the modern era, the democrats have a problem. They can't go too far to the center or they alienate the progressives and lose elections. They also cant go too far to the left without losing moderates, arguably speaking, although I would dispute this. But generally speaking, the democrats are still operating off of the coalition they made for themselves in 1992, and the leaders are aging, and very old, and often out of touch. This causes their brand of politics to be fundamentally unpopular, making them relatively unreliable in winning elections.
However, their problems pale in comparison to the GOP's problems. Trump is...not a great realigner. He's a failed realigner, and I'm calling it now. It's been debated over the past decade what his status is in this, but after thinking like a republican strategist lately, I kinda realized something, the GOP is still Reagan's GOP. Trump did NOT fundamentally change the republican coalition. It's STILL the same coalition Nixon and Reagan built. It's just its final form, the logical end point of the most extreme members. The mask is off on the racism, the religious fundamentalism is rampant, the only thing he did was to have an economically populist veneer which saved the party from destruction.
This party has been struggling since 2008. The Reagan coalition started fracturing with Bush. Heck, I'd argue the ONLY reason it's still relevant is because the democrats are REALLY bad at their jobs. The right KNOWS they're in deep crap. Their coalition is aging out. They're poised to become a minority party, as America browns, and as younger people replace older generations. And that's why they're so authoritarian. These guys KNOW they have a problem, they KNOW they're screwed, and they're trying to prepare to govern as a minority party, throwing democracy out the window. If they can deport brown people, they can ensure whites remain the dominant demographic. if they can ensure more whites have babies, which their social conservatism encourages, they can ensure they can outnumber other demographics. If they can engage in voter disenfrenchisement, they can ensure that only they vote. A lot of these guys openly talk like this, they'll say things like "we're not a democracy, we're a republic, we don't want EVERYONE voting, that's bad for the country." We're seeing them talk about having one vote per family and crap so only the head of the household (typically the man) can vote. They're trying to undo the civil rights act. They're trying to gerrymander the districts. They might even try to declare that the votes in the 2026 midterms are invalid and try to force their outcome on the country. And that's scary. The GOP's path to success into the future is...basically to govern like a minority party.
In a way, they already are. They've been the minority for almost two decades now. Their coalition has thinned. It's mostly held together by electoral advantages like the massive rural advantages our system affords them. It's held together by gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement efforts. They can't win legitimately, they have to do this to remain relevant and to remain powerful. If they can't do that, then they lose the future.
Quite frankly, the only OTHER thing holding the republicans together is the democrats being so bad at their job. The democrats are too nice, they care about procedure and decorum too much, they are the anti charismatic party. The boring party, the crappy status quo that no one likes party. And the only thing holding the democrats back from realizing their full potential is themselves. So right now, we bounce between the parties, going from republicans to democrats, and both being equally powerful, the republicans so because their coalition is imploding and the democrats because they're not even really trying, and honestly, if anything, the modern era feels like that 1970s era where we had Nixon and then Carter, and no one likes anyone, and all the politicians suck.
And even Trump....Trump IS a failed realigner. He did temporarily save the party by bridging the aging republican coalition with swing voters via economic populism, but he has no solutions. HE HAS NO SOLUTIONS. And while he seemed to govern just well enough to be remembered fondly after his first term, in his second, he's also imploding. Heck, it really does seem like the current parties are kinda operating in that 1970s holding pattern, with Trump and Biden both being Nixon and Carter in their own ways. Trump is both nixon and carter, corrupt, but also extremely incompetent. Biden is also like carter, incompetent, but also like Nixon, kind of the guy who did build the next democratic coalition in a way. He did manage to thread the needle between moderates and progressives in his first term and while he ultimately failed to make either happy, that coalition could be used in future elections.
I used to think that the realignment was gonna break either way: on left right lines, or establishment/anti establishment lines. One future is a populist MAGA party vs an establishment uniparty (bad realignment), one is a progressive left democratic party with a center right republican party. But what if I was wrong on that?
The new theory: 2028 and the broad democratic tent
Both FDR and Ronald Reagan won the electoral college by MASSIVE numbers. They won over basically the whole country, minus a couple states. The popular vote wasn't as extreme as the electoral vote, because there always is that 30-40% of the country on the losing side, but being able to pull together a coalition of 60%+ generally is indicative of a shift in power in politics. And as we know, that dominating coalition never remains at 60%+, FDR's coalition moderated a bit after he died, with truman still keeping it together, but Eisenhower finally cracking the code and giving the republicans a return to power. Reagan and Bush enjoyed massive margins followed by the democrats clawing themselves back with Clinton. Then things kinda normalized for a while.
What if 2028 is an electoral earthquake that doesn't depend on either a centrist democratic party or a progressive one, but rather a broad tent one? The tent will itself be unstable, but if we can secure 60% of the vote for the next decade or two, that will force the republicans into the wilderness, as they implode. I could see this happening after Trump. Hell, we're already seeing it with the Senate map. The country is turning on Trump, he has his loyal base that is ride or die for him, but if he can't seal the deal behind him and keep moderates on his side, that coalition isnt stable.
Even worse, after Trump, the republican coalition might implode into irrelevance. The MAGA base is so dangerous and so extreme the country might decide "never again", rejecting the republicans again and again as the name "Donald Trump" goes down in electoral history similar to "Herbert Hoover" or "Jimmy Carter." And while very popular among his base, no future replacement (looking at you, JD Vance, Marco Rubio) can pull off the same magic, leading to the republican coalition to FINALLY destroy itself as we go into the 2030s.
This will leave the democrats as the default option that no one is quite happy with, but everyone will vote for again and again just to keep the republicans out. Over time, there will be a tug of war between the two wings of the party, the moderates and the progressives, and one side will eventually be forced out and merge with the republicans, who shift their messaging to appeal to them. This could either become a populist anti establishment party, but I suspect it will lead to a more moderate republican party who takes the establishment centrists with them, allowing the democrats to move left and the progressives to FINALLY take over the party.
What democrats need to do
Democrats need to retake the house and possibly the senate in 2026, and then, in 2028, win the presidency. They can win with just about anyone I'd argue, but only the best candidates will truly be realigning. If the democrats fail to seal the deal, MAGA can claw their way back to relevance, leading to more authoritarian backsliding. Ultimately, they need a transformational agenda to fix the country.
This isn't just economic at this point. Economics is important, yes, we do need a second new deal, either my own, or at least a middle of the road progressive version featuring raising the minimum wage, a public option version of universal healthcare, free college and student loan forgiveness, and some sort of build back better style climate program.
They also need an agenda of actual political reform. They need to guarantee and expand voting rights, they need to detrumpify the government, end gerrymandering, possibly repeal the reapportionment act of 1929 to basically uncap the house and reduce the overwhelming rural advantage. Basically, everything opposite of what the republicans have been doing. If they can do that, they can rule the future, ensuring republicans can never win office again, at least in the near future. Not because of anything authoritarian, mind you, but because they're genuinely unpopular and the stigma of being associated with MAGA and trump sinks them for the next decade or two.
From there, we can hash out our differences to our heart's content. But we need to basically have some project 2029 plan to crush the GOP the way they tried to crush us, but rather than do it for evil by taking rights away, we use it for good. Again, more voting rights, not less. More democracy, not less.
The emerging democratic supermajority won't last forever. heck, I'm not even sure it will last for long. The democratic coalition is itself somewhat unstable. Things will eventually go back to each party winning roughly 50% of the electorate, and each party winning elections roughly 50% of the time. By 2040, it's back to business again probably. The republicans will claw their way back to relevance probably, and they'll start winning again. What will they look like? I'm hoping they moderate and come back winning over those weirdo centrist types who alienate us over here in the democrats. And then the democrats will have a left coalition, and will eventually retake power, pass more progressive stuff, and things will keep going this way until around 2064 or so, 36 years after this theoretical 2028 victory. From there, the cycle continues. The democratic coalition ages out and fractures itself apart, and by 2076, we have another realignment into an 8th party system.
That's my theory at least. As for whether it will happen, idk, I'm just spitballing here.