Discussing the 2020 primaries

I know it's a bit early to discuss the 2020 primaries as they're almost a year away and anything can happen, so take everything I'm about to say with a grain of salt. This discussion is going to be personal speculation, inspired by a recent discussion on the David Pakman show about Yang's 2020 chances in which it's discussed how he could, in theory win. I think it's relatively unlikely, but possible. However, I think that given the sheer number of candidates anything is possible and we will need to wait and see. That said, let's look at the field.

So far the following candidates have declared:

Cory Booker
Pete Buttigieg
Julian Castro
John Delaney
Tulsi Gabbard
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
John Hickenlooper
Jay Inslee
Amy Klobuchar
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Marianne Williamson
Andrew Yang

I would also expect Joe Biden, Sherrod Brown, and maybe Beto O'Rourke and Michael Bloomberg to declare. That gives us 18 candidates, and this might not be an exhaustive list. There are also a lot of lesser known candidates I may not be aware of.

Looking at the polls, while RCP's polls don't cover every candidate, they do give a good idea of what the race is looking so far, especially among the front runners. Their polling data indicates, in aggregate, these results:

Joe Biden - 29%
Bernie Sanders - 20%
Kamala Harris - 12%
Elizabeth Warren - 7%
Cory Booker - 6%
Beto O"Rourke - 6%
Amy Klobuchar - 3.3%
Michael Bloomberg - 3%
Sherrod Brown - 2%
Tulsi Gabbard - 1%
Julian Castro - <1%
Kirsten Gillibrand - <1%

That said, Joe Biden is the front runner, without having declared yet. Bernie is leading among the declared candidates, and I think Kamala Harris is also a formidable candidate I could consider to be in the top tier of contenders. These are the ones I think have the best shot at the presidency. Both approach politics differently and have a unique niche. Biden is the centrist candidate with a well known name and probably has a lot of the Clinton vote. Sanders is also well known at this point but is known as being a fiery progressive, the opposite of Biden ideologically. Harris is kind of the middle ground compromise between the two with a heavy focus on intersectionality. She appears to be pursuing the Obama coalition by striking a balance between centrism and progressivism, while also appealing to women and people of color.

That said:

Does Joe Biden stand a chance?

Primaries are weird. Especially with this many candidates. Some primaries are relatively boring with the frontrunner being known before hand and they just maintain their lead the entire race. Joe Biden is a familiar name, he was the vice president under Obama, and he has a good chance with some of the Hillary Clinton vote due to his centrism. He could theoretically coast to the presidency. However, it's also possible his support is primarily because of name recognition and that if he declares, he may find himself embroiled in a world of controversy. Biden is a very controversial figure. He has run for president multiple times before and always lost. And at this point it might be too late for a "new democrat" to win, especially with all of the ammo progressives have to sink his campaign with. At the start of his political career, a mere decade after Bernie Sanders was arrested for standing with civil rights protesters, Joe Biden was in the senate....turning people against integration and busing programs. This may have played well with his constituents at the time, but let's be honest, the dude was flat out on the wrong side of history. And while people often forget this about him now, it's been coming up in recent years given the possibility of him running again, and it might be brought up again by opponents. He also has a very abysmal record on the drug war that does not fit in the party today. This is likely going to be brought up again. Again, he could make an argument that it made sense at the time, and that he can pivot in different ways, but does America really want someone who flip flops? The more I look at him, but more I see a white male Hillary Clinton candidacy all over again.

Biden is also a "gaffe machine". You think Howard Dean's "BYAH!" was bad? Biden is infamous for saying the wrong thing at the wrong time and this ability could kill his campaign just like Howard Dean. He could start off as the front runner but say stuff that alienates voters, driving them to other candidates. Heck he's already alienated me from voting for him by downplaying millennial experiences with the economy and telling us to "give him a break." No, Joe, you give US a break. I mean between this and his vocal opposition to basic income, a policy I champion regularly on here, he has basically lost me before he's even declared. I'll vote third party again if he is the nominee, just saying.

Finally, Biden comes off to some as kind of "creepy." He is known to touch people in uncomfortable ways and while nothing to my knowledge flat out goes into sexual harassment territory, some have speculated that he is going to be "me tooed" out of the race.

It's possible that despite all of this baggage he maintains enough popularity to win and make it to the general, but he would be going into the general mired in controversy just like Hillary Clinton did. If I had to guess, once the spotlight is on him and all of this stuff comes out, he will likely lose a lot of support, with Sanders and Harris becoming far more likely to win.

Does Bernie Sanders stand a chance?

With Biden being the tenuous front runner who may implode upon announcing his candidacy, does Bernie Sanders stand a chance? If I had to guess, yes, yes he does. He is starting out 2020 with a strong base of support, already gathering huge crowds in his first campaign rallies in Brooklyn and Chicago. His campaign also raised $6 million from small donors within 24 hours of announcing. He has tremendous energy. He has also polished up his stump speech and has far more of a focus on intersectionality than he did in 2016, so people can't realistically say he doesn't appeal to minorities (news flash, they still do, nothing will be good enough for these people unless he was a black woman himself). He went on a town hall on CNN and nailed it, despite the fact that CNN did everything in their power to make him look bad by stacking the audience full of DNC operatives and lobbyists. I mean, he's far stronger than he was in 2016 message wise, and listening to him, and looking at his energy, if I had to guess who would win this time around, I'll say this: Bernie Sanders stands the best chance of any candidate in the running. He draws in tons of small donor money, tons of crowds, and enthuses people in a way few people do. He's strengthened his platform, he's clearly learned from 2016. He's back and means business. The haters still hate him and are still trying to do dirty tricks against him, but I don't think they will work this time because he is starting out with tons of momentum and not just one percent. To me, for anyone else to become the nominee, he is THE person to beat, along with Biden, who I see as far more beatable. While I suspect Biden will lose a lot of support if he declares and the race goes on, Sanders comes off as someone with a strong following and enthusiasm, and the only way he will lose his current support is if he gets sick given his advanced age and apparent propensity to give speeches during snowstorms (hello, William Henry Harrison), or if another progressive comes up and possibly splits the vote.

Does Kamala Harris stand a chance?

This is tricky, because it's unclear whether she does. She has been pushed as the frontrunner before and when she declared her candidacy was given all kinds of special treatment it seemed which propelled her to the third place slot. However, she has not taken off since then and much like Beto O'Rourke before her, might just be a flavor of the month. Someone pushed artificially high by the media tipping the scales, but who does not have a strong base of support when the dust settles.

However, as the Fox article points out, she has a lot going for her. People in 538 and the like seem to think she stands a good chance because she can theoretically bring in people from all over the party including minority voters, young voters, progressives, and establishment figures. She's pushed as this unifying figure who triangulates all of the different factions in the party and brings them together. Despite that though, she's only third place and does not seem to have the traction, for example, Sanders has. However, say Biden does drop out of the race. Since establishment figures like Harris, it's possible Biden's supporters could flock to her, giving her a commanding lead. However, at this time her level of support doesn't seem high enough. This could change, and I still think she's a strong candidate in the running, but I'm not sure she can seal the deal. Her level of support and enthusiasm seems relatively low at the time despite getting lots of media coverage.

Candidates I think will drop out

So, moving on, and covering the front runners, I think I want to cover candidates I don't think will make it very far. Here's the thing, when you have a race this competitive, with so many different people in the race, you end up getting an oversupply of candidates who all tend to overlap with each other. By this I mean, they have no niche, and appear too similar to a candidate who has a better chance at the presidency. Here are the people I think fit this category:

Tulsi Gabbard- Gabbard is quite frankly, too similar to Sanders. Her big claim to fame is giving up her position as DNC vice chair to point out funny business in the democratic party and back Sanders. As such, the vast majority of her support comes from people who already back Sanders. Unless Sanders gets sick, I see him as a near unstoppable freight train in this sense. People like Tulsi have no base of support. The only people I have seen who like Gabbard over Sanders are people who are openly anti Semitic, and people who think Bernie fails to meet insane purity tests and think Tulsi has more guts in standing up to the establishment like. These people are a minority and I doubt her campaign will get off the ground.

Either Sherrod Brown or Amy Klobuchar- It's unclear which of these candidates will drop out, but these two seem too similar to each other. Both of them are relatively centrist/pragmatic candidates from the midwest whose big claim to fame is being able to win the areas of the country Trump lost. Brown has a more labor oriented message while Klobuchar comes off more like your typical Clintonite. Either way both reject big solutions to problems like free college, medicare for all, and the green new deal and prefer more centrist paths to accomplishing their goals. I just don't think the race is big enough for both of these candidates, although if their voters all rallied behind one of them, they might stand a chance. It's also if Biden drops out or doesn't run that they could pick up some of his support and be a force to be reckoned with themselves. Otherwise it's possible both will be crowded out due to Joe Biden's presence in the race.

Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker, and Julian Castro- These candidates all come off as too Harris-like. I think Harris has the whole "centrist pretending to be a progressive while appealing for the Obama vote" crowd locked down. Too many copycats of copycats at this point.

Pete Buttigieg- Combined with having many of Tulsi Gabbard's problems related to overlapping with Sanders, this guy is relatively unknown. His big selling point is that he's a millennial who has run a city before but nothing about his platform seems to stand out. He's another Bernie copycat.

Elizabeth Warren- I think Warren will make it further than most on this list. She's more progressive than most candidates while being not as progressive as Sanders. She has a niche and strong credentials that way. She's not explicitly copying Sanders but trying to carve out her own path with her own unique policies. But she is suffering severe likeability and image problems. While she appears to be trying to triangulate as being left of the Harris crowd and to the right of the Sanders crowd, offering a "capitalist" alternative to Bernie's democratic socialism, she just doesn't appear to be taking off. Many of her prospective voters likely already back other candidates and she is questioned as to whether she has the chops to take on Trump effectively after the whole "Pocahontas" thing. Better than most on this list, but a long shot.

John Delaney, John Hickenlooper, Michael Bloomberg- Despite being very vocal, these avowed centrists seem to have next to no support in the party at all. I think they will be crowded out of the race while Biden and maybe Klobuchar and Brown pick up the "centrist" vote.

Jay Inslee, Marianne Williamson-  Who has even heard of these guys?

Don't get me wrong, one or two of these guys may take off given certain circumstances, but as a whole, I just don't see these guys as gaining enough traction to win. That said, why did I leave off Andrew Yang? Well, to get into that....

Does Andrew Yang stand a chance?

Andrew Yang is so unknown most are not aware of his existence. Most mainstream news outlets don't cover him, most pollsters don't ask about him, he's relatively unknown. However, I can't help but find parallels to his campaign, and Bernie and Trump in 2016. Yang, when he is polled, tends to get around 1% from what I see. He also seems to be getting a major boost from his appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast. I mean it sold me on him too, despite still having reservations about some of his policies. When people hear him and listen to him, he seems to get a lot of people on his side and talks sense in a way few people do. Not just liberals, but conservatives as well. People in this country do want change, and I am convinced of this. It's why Trump won in 2016 and one of the reasons I think Bernie will win 2020. But it's possible Yang's vision is more popular than Bernie's. Bernie is good at stump speeches and inspiring people, but Yang has a way of systemizing the issues and explaining them in a way that most people have never heard of before, and make perfect sense. Right now his goal seems to be to make it to the debates. If he does, he could raise his profile for awareness and possibly come out of nowhere, gaining a lot of support. People who are committed to Biden or Sanders but who think they're too old might vote for him. People who think the green new deal and Bernie Sanders' "socialism" as too far gone but want a progressive alternative might vote for him. Yang ultimately is both an idealist but also somewhat of a pragmatist. He understands we can't do everything and has a clear vision insofar as what he wants. I could see him going from 1% or less right now to hitting 3-5% in the debates, and possibly creeping up into the double digits before the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. It's also possible he never takes off like so many others, but I think that if we are going to have a candidate who is not currently well known and on the radar come out of nowhere and take it, it's probably going to be Yang. He has a niche no one else does, his message is unique and makes sense. While other candidates seem like general copycats of other candidates, Yang is one candidate I think has a unique niche, and in this crowded race it's good to find something that makes you stand out that resonates. It's unclear whether basic income can be that thing, but it's possible.

At the same time there are a lot of good reasons to believe that Yang will NOT take off, or at least not win. The centrist camp of the democratic party hates progressives with big ticket programs. They hate medicare for all, they hate free college, they hate the green new deal, and they would hate basic income. One of the reasons I am so disillusioned with the centrists is their refusal to think big about these programs and think the status quo or some variation of it is "good enough." So instead of getting UBI the furthest left they will go is Kamala Harris' "lift act" or an expanded EITC.

Some democrats oppose UBI because they see it as a program designed to make people poorer and help the rich. They see a tech oriented rich person like Yang push this and they see it as a conservative plot to destroy welfare. I could see some on the left and center oppose UBI because they want to defend current programs. This happened before when Nixon supported a UBI style program to replace Johnson's "great society". Democrats get touchy when people try to one up their past accomplishments. We saw this recently with Hillary not wanting to replace Obamacare with single payer. It's also possible the idea is just too forward thinking and radical for people to get behind.

Much of the country who is progressive seems to be behind Sanders' message which is in favor of a jobs program. Many people really can't think of a world without work yet and would rather create more work to give people a paycheck than see people do "nothing." While I think Yang's aspirations are more realistic than Bernie's here (UBI would only cost a fraction of what the green new deal would), it is possible people just aren't ready for UBI and will vigorously fight against it. I personally was thinking originally UBI would not be introduced into the debate in a serious way for another decade or so, but Yang seems to be pushing it now. It's possible it's too early.

Finally, I think Yang is making too many of Sanders' 2016 mistakes. Yang reminds me a lot of 2016 Sanders: someone who wants to run an issue based campaign but who is naive and doesn't realize that he will be torn apart for it. Yang is one of the few people who published numbers for funding his ideas on his website and quite frankly, as I already covered, they don't work well and need an overhaul. If I can point this out, imagine how CNN treats them when he gains awareness in the country. They will do the same thing they did to Bernie in 2016. Yang also seems to be avoiding the pit of snakes that is identity politics, but as Bernie learned, you need to either adapt to them or get swallowed up. Yang, in running an issues oriented campaign, will be blasted for not pandering to people of every single identity group properly, and honestly, I really don't see the democrats as a party to unite behind common solutions to problems unless they get pandered to specifically based on identity. You can't just say "here's UBI, it will work and make your lives better", you need to explain to women how it will make their lives better, and then African Americans and latinos, and people in the LGBT+ community, and everything else. Otherwise you'll be written off as "too white" (despite Yang being asian) and too male and your supporters will be called "Yang bros". I've heard it said by someone I introduced Yang to that he's "too smart to be president" and sadly I think that's not far off the mark. Sadly, many people don't care about ideas, they care about being pandered to specifically, and while I find it sickening, it's the truth.

Yang's message seems to appeal primarily to the people who are needed to win the general. Sadly, these are not the same people who vote in the primary. They are not loyal democrats, they are independent swing voters. And while Yang is correct that if you don't offer good solutions from the left these people will succumb to xenophobia and move right, they also often don't come out and vote as a bloc on the democratic side in primaries, and many who do likely already back Bernie.

That said I can't rule Yang out and think he has a stronger chance than most candidates, going so far to say I think he might come in 4th or 5th. However, I can't see him winning. It's possible, but I cannot see how a coalition would come together to seal the deal unless he manages to "Trump" everyone. I see him as this cycle's Ross Perot, or Ron Paul, or Hermin Cain. Someone with very unique ideas that maybe should be listened to somewhat but who will likely only acquire a small  base of support not capable of winning the party's nomination in and of itself.

Conclusion

I'm just gonna call it now, if I had to guess who will win the primary right now, it will be Bernie Sanders. I say this because he is currently second in the polls, and because I don't think Biden will make it out of the primaries unscathed. I think he has the strongest, most loyal base of support this time, and there are enough candidates out there where he could win with a strong plurality vote, likely not needing a full majority to lock down the nomination. Biden has a strong chance too though, and while I don't think he will definitely win, I could see him limping into the general like Clinton did as a vastly unpopular, damaged candidate who managed to beat the competition. I could also see Harris possibly gaining support from other candidates dropping out, giving her enough of a base to win. Other than that, I think it's hard to guess. I think most other candidates will drop out as they lack unique messages that could resonate with the voter base. I do think Yang will make waves this election, but I think it's unlikely he will win. I would like to see him gain more awareness in the country though in order to inject basic income into the debate though.