So, I decided that now I'm going to do an election prediction with
Harris running against Trump rather than Biden. Just to see whether it
would improve the democrats' numbers or make them worse. I would look at
other people, but most polls only discuss Biden and MAYBE Harris. Even
Harris might have so few polls that what conclusions can be drawn here
are limited, but I would like to go through the process of evaluating
what little evidence we do have.
First of all: Trump +8.5%
That's the national polling. Keep in mind vs Biden Trump is at +2.2% (2.6% yesterday). Or 6% with third parties. So Harris is like 6 points down even against Biden. This is why I'm so leery of swapping out Biden for someone else. Because most evidence I've seen suggests that Harris isnt uniquely bad either. While generic dems are more accepted, once a name is put out, yeah, they crater vs Biden.
So what about state level? There isn't a whole lot of data out there but of the data I know of.
Ultimate the result is the same, but with a different configuration of states: 302-236 Trump.
As for the probability level, Harris fares far worse. Trump has an 84% chance of beating Harris, Harris only has a 16% chance of beating Trump.
In all fairness, there isnt that much data, outside of the popular vote, but given Harris is 6 points down against even Biden, it doesn't look good, and I would say based on that I would say she should have next to no chance of winning against Trump. I mean, take this model I made back in September and shift it a further 7 points. We're basically talking a 348-190 landslide with Trump winning. We would be 11.4% points from breaking even, which would give Trump a 99.8% chance of beating Harris.
So would Harris do a better job against Biden? No, she probably would not. And I got news for you, you replace Biden with anyone else, I doubt they would do much better than harris. Virtually all data I've seen would suggest that any other candidate would do roughly as bad. You might see them doing a point or two better, but yeah, most would crater vs Biden. Even Sanders was 2 points down vs Trump compared to Biden at the same time (going by April 7th 2020). While the centrist electability argument might've been BS in 2016, in 2020, yeah, Biden had Bernie beat in terms of polling. We're not in 2016 any more.
So yeah. This is why I have this feeling we're stuck with Biden, and why I'm not asking him to resign or step down. A lot of people think that would help, as if the problem is uniquely Biden, but there just isn't enough data to suggest that. Sure you have that one poll the other week, but I go by averages, not individual polls, and that same poll had Harris doing better than Biden, so yeah. I don't think Biden is uniquely weak. I think the democrats are in a bad position in general, and no one can really dig them out of that.
I ain't even going into what the polls would look like if Trump were replaced. let's just say it would be a landslide for the R candidate. I'm just primarily trying to demonstrate why I'm so against replacing Biden from an electability standpoint. Would I prefer someone other than Biden like Marianne Williamson? Sure! Of course I would in terms of my actual ideas and ideology. Would I want someone else in terms of electability? Hell to the no. Biden has the incumbency advantage, he's the best we got, we all know if Biden stepped aside they'd probably just give it to harris rather than letting Williamson and Phillips duke it out.
What can I say? We're stuck with Biden and we're screwed.
