So, centrist candidate for Maine's Senate race Janet Mills has finally suspended her campaign, leaving Graham Platner the presumptive nominee. And I'll be honest, she's been losing for a while. People just don't seem to want another establishment centrist dem, especially a 77 year old. I say good, times are changing. I know I've had some reservations about Platner's past myself, but I generally like him MUCH better than Mills. Honestly, it's water under the bridge.
Platner is also far more electable for the general. Mills was trailing Susan Collins by 0.2%, meaning she would have a 48% or so chance to flip her seat. The reason I've been so confident in Maine going blue is because I've been using Platner's data, which has him up 7.6%, which is why my model has Maine having a 97% shot of going democrat. Sure, some people will insist that Maine's data is inherently unreliable, but 7.6% is enough of a buffer where I'm fairly confident that Platner can power through even if he underperforms. The polls would literally need to be off by around 8 points, my entire two tailed margin of error, just to put collins over the finish line here. The point is, it's unlikely to happen.
There are apparently two other primary candidates, and we'll see if they can gain traction with the last 1.3 months left or so, but suffice to say, I think Graham's got this.
No comments:
Post a Comment