So...I'm gonna keep going for now. Kinda getting bored with this, the further back I go, the less attached I feel to the outcome, but I'll likely go to at least 2004, and maybe 2000. 2004 is the limit for the data I have. If I cant follow along with the polling, it kinda destroys half the fun for me. Although I might do 2000 because it was such a dumpster fire with the florida situation. Anyway, 2008, Obama vs McCain, let's go.
Hour 1
Like always, they go over the map, and I'll do my map here. This is pretty much the prediction I had I think, I know I got north carolina wrong, but I cant imagine getting indiana right, so I'm gonna assume I did get both wrong. At the time, I was in college, I was actually in political science taking a stats class at the time, and we were encouraged to make election predictions. I think the closest one got a prize, but I lost because someone nailed it 100% apparently. But yeah, i did go over RCP data, past voting records, and I even looked at the probabilities based on the MOE based on what I learned in class. That's how I developed the basics for my current methodology btw, I used a 3 point MOE at the time, not 4, I didnt go 4 until 2016, but yeah, that said, this was a romp. it was always gonna be a romp, and with a 3 point MOE, Obama winning was basically statistically significant. With a 4 point, it's slightly less than that, but still close. Either way, mcCain wasn't winning. It seemed obvious.
On Obama's side, we got all of the usual suspects, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Michigan is basically not even on here as it's SAFE. Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Nevada. And that brings us to 270 by itself. With a margin of 6.5%. Yeah, 95% shot at winning with my adjusted 4 point MOE. McCain was screwed. But then it goes on, we got VA and CO, which i discussed in 2012, we started seeing the suburban realignment here. Ohio and Florida are both in the Obama column as well. I got a projected 339 votes for Obama and 199 for mccain. As I said, a romp.
On McCain's side, the swing states seem so bizarre here. South Dakota? You never see that any more. Then North Dakota was only at 2.5 for the dems. Indiana was at 1.4, and that actually did go to Obama (he overperformed). North Carolina did too. Missouri was a swing state by less of a point. And what are now the sun belt states were red only by 3-4 points. And this was in 2008, crazy, absolutely crazy. This itself felt like a realigning election at the time, and I guess it was. As I said, I feel like each president in the 6th party system minus maybe Bush 1 and Biden were mini realignments, and even Biden was kind of a map realigner himself. This is why Im not sure if it's safe to say trump is a full blown realigner, or simply self contained mini alignment. It's very well possible 2028 could see a further realignment of the map as Trumpism tears itself apart and we see the democratic party in a civil war between the centrists and the DSA types.
But yeah, for McCain to win, he would need not just everything in his column, but Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and then either Nevada or pennsylvania. Long story short? Not happening. There's a reason he has a 5% shot.
Anyway, the first hour mostly talked about the map and also stuff that happened like Joe the plumber on the campaign trail, who I forgot about until this replay.Anyway, what seemed to drive people to vote for Obama? Apparently it was the economy. The great recession just happened, and it is what caused this massive blue wave. Kinda like that meteor from deep impact wiping out the east coast. BOOM. The republicans never had a shot. Honestly, even without that, I doubt that McCain could win. Republican party morale was at rock bottom, even among republicans. Bush's approval was awful, the war on Iraq backfired massively and turned into a quagmire with no end in sight. The deficit was out of control, which alienated a lot of fiscal conservatives. And Obama had this youthful energy of hope and change causing droves of young people to turn out for him. The recession just made it worse. Honestly, the Reagan coalition should've ended right there, but as we know, republicans fight for what they believe in, and democrats...don't. So they were able to claw themselves back to relevance while democrats just kinda roll over.
Hour 2
We start getting states called that actually matter, like Pennsylvania. And it's called basically as soon as the polls closed, which apparently pissed off the McCain campaign. What do you expect dude? You're down 7.3 with a 3% chance of winning. And it doesnt matter how much time he invested in PA. Maybe he needed it to win, I mean normally when youre down 7.3, I'd say youre wasting your time and you should consider another path to victory, but this actually WAS the path of least resistance for him. He was just at such a disadvantage. And yeah they talked about voters here, and again, it was the economy, they talked about how even a lot of racist white voters voted for him because they thought hed improve their lives. Makes me feel a bit better about El Sayed, although he isnt facing a crippling recession with his campaign in Michigan. Still, thinking back, the attacks on "Barack Hussein Obama" remind me of the attacks on "Abdulrahman Mohamed El Sayed." Ya know, he's a muslim, he's a communist, he's gonna destroy America, blah blah blah. We've heard it all before and Obama won. Hopefully El Sayed will too. Hell, let's go further, Abdul El Sayed is attacked for ties to Hasan Piker who is more radical than he is. Obama had ties to people like Reverend Wright and Louis Farrakan. Reverend Wright is infamous for being like "NOT GOD BLESS AMERICA, GOD DAMN AMERICA!" And yeah, you can imagine how that went over. Again, the more I think about it, the more parallels this guy has, to the point I would almost like to see him run in 2028. Abdul can be the new Obama with better healthcare.
Beyond that, they talked about how Obama actually was winning both among lower income people, but also higher income people. Again, this is where you start getting the suburban shift idea that Clinton tried to build on, only to end up imploding Obama's coalition. And winning both did allow Obama to win by a comfortable margin. But maybe at the same time the Obama coalition was always unsustainable. Maybe we were either gonna see white working class men or upper class suburbanites leave, since the democrats cant reliably keep both, and maybe the Obama map was doomed to fail like it did. Something to think about. Maybe the implosion of the Obama coalition was inevitable the way the implosion of the Trump coalition may very well happen in the next couple of years. Even if trump has his loyalists, I cant see him keeping independents and swing voters on his side here. There's a reason he's at like -20 approval and the map is swinging so blue. Independents are leaving him in DROVES, causing only his core coalition to back him. Again, each president seems to bring in a mini realignment with their own respective coalitions, and after 8-12 years, they implode. Sure, we got the larger 36+ year cycles, but again, just looking at Bush, Obama, and Trump being their own little self contained eras, and knowing the clinton years and Reagan/Bush 1 years were their own little self contained eras as well gives credibility to this. Maybe each new president has to chart their own path with their own coalition, building on what was done in the past, but not going nuts with replicating the past.
Hour 3
By this point, it seems obvious that McCain is losing. There's discussion of what went wrong, and it seems to come down to the economy and demographics. The republican party has a long term demographic problem. It's what's driven them to their modern bout of fascism as they're preparing for minority rule. If they cant win through democracy, break it until they can. But yeah, 2008 is where this problem started to be obvious. THe republicans were appealing to a demographic that was aging out. A lot of millennials were voting for the first time around 2008 (including me), and the republican party was out of touch with these demographics. Republicans appeal mostly to whites, and younger demographics are increasingly nonwhite (again, which is why the republican party is going fascist). It's a math problem. And while Trumpism/democratic incompetence pushed back the expiration date of the republican coalition, they still face this looming problem, and 2028 is looking to be 2008 again.
Hour 4
So, this got called pretty early again, and I aint watching beyond this. Sure, there's McCain/Obamas' speeches, but I really am more interested in how the election played out, especially relative to my predictions. When it was finally called, it seemed like they were willing to admit the obvious: McCain was never gonna win. He was DOA. It was like 2024 when Biden was still the nominee. Actually, Biden STILL had better odds than McCain did in 2008. Seriously. It was the economy, it was demographics, it was everything.
Conclusion
2008 feels like a different world. The video was grainier, there were still phone calls in the news room, it feels like the 80s and 90s do in my head. Which is weird since back then, it didnt feel THAT much different than now at the time. We lacked smart phones but thats about it.
At the same time, 2008 feels closest to the modern 2026-2028 environment. Here we are again, and the GOP once again feels DOA over the economy, unpopular wars, etc. And while Trump is unique in that he is uniquely incompetent, the root problems with the GOP are the same. They cant govern, but they win when democrats suck. But Obama was youthful, he seemed progressive, and he was himself a bit of a generational change candidate. He was the millennial candidate. And while I still consider the Obama era as part of the 6th party system, he kinda has that nixonesque charm where he could have been the template going forward (Nixon preceded Reagan in that regard).
WHich...incenses me more about 2016. I had to post this in an internet argument, but I was watching this at the time, and hey, looks like the same map just about!
Gee, if only we ran that guy in 2016. Would've had the same energy. And after 2008, it would've wrecked the GOP for a generation.
Which...brings me to 2028, I know I just talked about suburban strategies and the sun belt, but uh...the map is changing...again. Apparently PA just had a special election out in butler county, ya know, where Trump was shot and the people out there practically worship him, and the democrat won. IN BUTLER COUNTY. For the 2026 senate, we got tons of red states like Texas, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and Alaska all in play. Yeah, Ohio, which we lost to the republicans due to democratic incompetence is in play again.
And....an anecdote I heard about James Talarico I heard today reminds me of that anecdote about Obama, how all these die hard conservative white guys who are normally racist AF are gonna be going for the democrat this year. IN TEXAS.
We got Abdul El Sayed in Michigan, and he's facing the same crap Obama did in 2008. Oh, he's a muslim, oh he's a communist, oh, he has questionable connections to extreme people. And despite whatever moral outrage the centrists had over it, Obama DOMINATED. And you know what? Maybe El Sayed will too.
Hell, Im starting to think El Sayed should run for president. If we want to replicate the Obama phenomenon but with a progressive, he might be a good option. AOC doesnt have the charisma, neither does Ro Khanna. And before people say El Sayed is too young, hes too inexperienced, he wont even serve a full term in the senate, NEITHER DID OBAMA! He won his senate seat in 2004, ran in 2008, and got in. Again, Abdul El Sayed comes off to me as 2028 Obama. Mamdani also has that magic but he wasnt born here, so....yeah, El Sayed for president? I'd be behind it.
We might have a once in a generation (or at least half of a generation) opportunity to flip things in 2028 and finish what Obama started with the destruction of the GOP and the reagan coalition. But we gotta run a progressive who actually intends to enact generational change. THat's where Obama F-ed up, he had this energy, then did nothing with it, and then the centrists got back in and ran Clinton/Biden/Harris....which brought us back to the dark Gore/Kerry days of the 2000s.
Speaking of which, I plan on covering both. 2004, I have a map for that one, 2000 I don't, but I wanna reexperience the dumpster fire first hand, because that was arguably wilder than 2020 was. We didnt know who the president was for WEEKS afterward. But yeah, I'll do those next.
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