Monday, October 24, 2016

Election Update 10/24/16

Okay, 2 weeks until election day, this will either be my second or third from last update. I plan on doing one the day before election day and I may do another between now and then, I'll have to see. Anyway, let's look at what's going on. I hear Donald is losing badly.

Aggregate polling - 5.5% Clinton

Clinton seems to have gone down a bit in the two way polls.

Aggregate polling with third party candidates - 5.3% Clinton

Slightly lower in the four way too.

Electoral College

Added a few states. Unsurprisingly PA was added back to the list as it reverted to about 6% ahead for Clinton. Now the surprising one: Texas is in play. Yes, TEXAS, the biggest red state in the game. It's expected for Texas to become more liberal in the next few decades, but it's surprising to see it technically in play now, even if that does mean Trump will probably win it by 5 points.

Arizona - 1.3% Clinton

Colorado - 7.2% Clinton

Florida - 3.8% Clinton

Georgia - 4.0% Trump

Indiana - 5.0% Trump

Iowa - 3.7% Trump

Maine - 5.2% Clinton

Maine CD2 - 5.4% Trump

Minnesota - 4.3% Clinton

Missouri - 6.7% Trump

Nevada - 4.7% Clinton

New Hampshire - 8.0% Clinton

North Carolina - 2.1% Clinton

Ohio - 0.6% Trump

Pennsylvania - 6.2% Clinton

South Carolina -  7.6% Trump

Texas - 4.8% Trump

Utah -  5.5% Trump

Virginia - 8.0% Clinton

Wisconsin - 6.7% Clinton


Election Scenarios

Most likely scenario (best guess) - 333-205 Clinton 

Last week's most likely scenario - 340-198 Clinton

Most likely scenario with no swing states (<=1% lead) - 333-187 Clinton

Clinton + 1 - 351-187 Clinton

Trump + 1 - 333-205 Clinton

Most likely scenario with no swing states (<=4% lead) - 278-165 Clinton

Clinton + 4 - 373-165 Clinton

Trump + 4 - 278-260 Clinton

Most likely scenario with no swing states <=8% lead) - 203-90 (no winner)

Clinton + 8 - 448-90 Clinton

Trump + 8 - 203-335 Trump

Current statistics 

Current tipping point: Trump + 4.3% - 268-270 Trump
The state that tips it: Minnesota (+4.3% Clinton)

Standard deviations: 1.075

Current chance of Clinton winning: 85.9%

Current chance of Trump winning: 14.1%

Previous statistics

Previous tipping point: Trump + 3.6% - 268-270 Trump

The state that tipped it: New Hampshire (+3.6% Clinton)

Standard deviations: 0.9

Previous chance of Clinton winning: 81.5%

Previous chance of Trump winning: 18.5%

Discussion

At first glance, looking at the aggregate polls and the electoral college as it has changed, it would look like Clinton's lead is lessening, but when one looks at what's going on in the electoral college and looks at the chances of various states flipping, the presidency becomes further and further out of Trump's grasp. The tipping point is currently polling 4.3% in Clinton's favor rather than 3.6%, and this means that Clinton's chance of winning has increased by more than 4% from around 82% to around 86%. It doesn't look good for the Donald. On the other hand it looks very good for Clinton.

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