So, first real 2020 election post. Some of you, or really, most of you at this point, have probably heard of Kamala Harris. She's a democrat from California running for president on the democratic ticket, and has an EXTREMELY progressive platform. She supports (supposedly) medicare for all, she has a "lift act" which is basically a tax credit that's like a watered down version of a UBI. She seems like a perfect candidate in some ways. She's young, she's charismatic, she has left wing positions, she basically sounds like a Bernie Sanders type.So what's the problem?
The problem is, she hasn't always been like this. She has a very questionable record as prosecutor filled with many questionable actions including defending convictions on innocent people and arresting people for truancy. Less than an hour after defending medicare for all in CNN's town hall, she walked it back and said she was open to more moderate plans, which really gets to the crux the issue. She's saying she's a progressive, but then she walks it back and seems more moderate behind the scenes. Speaking of CNN, why is CNN giving her a town hall when they're known to attack Sanders for supporting the same things? Why are they still treating Sanders as a nonstarter for 2020 despite him being second in the polls? Why is Time Warner, CNN's parent company, donating to her? I mean again, they were totally for Clinton in 2016 and express a blatant pro corporate pro centrist bias. Why is Harris so agreeable when Sanders isn't? Heck even Wall street seems okay with Harris but not Sanders. Harris is a centrist to them, but people like Warren and Sanders are too far left. If Harris is for the same things more or less, why does this dichotomy exist? It seems like while Harris sounds very progressive, she ISN'T very progressive. It sounds like as the democrats start to embrace medicare for all, they're starting to walk back what Medicare for all means and will likely abandon it for Obamacare 2.0.
This is scary. I should be ELATED the democrats are moving hard left. And part of me is. But keep this in mind, the only reason this is happening is because of the popularity of people like Sanders, and Warren, and AOC, and all the voters and Bernie or busters who wouldn't take Clinton's crap in 2016. We should be ecstatic that the democrats are quickly shifting hard left where even "moderate" candidates are adopting virtually the entirety of Bernie's platform. But at the same time, something seems off. The fix still seems to be in against Sanders, and they're pushing candidates who have few previously progressive platforms who are suddenly coming out and moving far left, and most of the elite class is seemingly okay with it, but they still hate Sanders. I smell a rat. I'm guessing there's a bait and switch going on where the democrats will promise to adopt Bernie's platform, but THEIR candidates are still in charge, and will adopt Bernie's platform only to walk it back in office.
This puts us in a tough spot, which brings me to the next point:
Bernie or bust 2020?
The problem with candidates like this is that while they are likely fake as heck, protest voting against them could backfire. In 2016, it seems apparent protest voting worked. We stopped Clinton from winning, and showed there's a demand for progressive policies previously ignored by the democratic party. The democrats were so brazen with their refusal to endorse progressive policies that it's quite clear it created a significant backlash forcing democrats to the left.
The problem is now they ARE left, or at least pretend to be. The party is quickly moving left, despite media outcries a few months ago about how centrism wins elections. They clearly are trying to accommodate our concerns, and failing to vote for them COULD cause them to push to the center again, especially as people like Howard Schultz are threatening to leave the party, causing the democrats to lose that way.
That said, I've identified four tiers of democrats running for 2020, and have different stances on them.
Tier 1: Bernie Sanders
Yes, Bernie gets his own tier. Im sorry, but NO candidate seems to match Bernie in platform, messaging, ideology, and consistency. He is, in my opinion, already my clear 2020 choice.
Tier 2: Flawed progressives
These are people who I deem extremely progressive, and likely mean it but might be flawed. These include people like Elizabeth Warren who is very hard on wall street, offers a lot of progressive ideas, but sometimes won't stick her neck out and endorse certain policies Sanders does. They seem honest, but they are at the same time a clear downgrade from Bernie, with obvious compromises in ideology or policy that Bernie does not have. They are not my first choice in the primary but I will definitely back them for the general.
Tier 3: Fauxgressives
These are the ones to worry about. Kamala Harris fits perfectly in this category. These candidates have progressive records, but might not be consistently progressive and seem to be "pivoting" left to win Bernie voters, without actually holding the same convictions. The problem with these candidates is while they seem very far left, they seem to have connections to elite groups and show a possible willingness, either implicitly based on past positions, or explicitly, to walk themselves back to the center. I can't rule out voting for them in the general, but I also can't rule out a third party vote depending on circumstances. It really depends on the candidate, their circumstances, and how they handle criticism. I'm not sure what I think yet of many of these candidates. I definitely won't support them in the primary though.
Tier 4: Centrists
These are the Joe Biden style candidates who are outright not progressive. They have centrist positions and do not see eye to eye with progressives. HRC was in this camp in 2016 and I do not plan on supporting these guys in either the primary or the general election. If you don't even try, you definitely won't get my vote.
Conclusion
That said I would encourage people to approach 2020 with optimistic caution. There is much to be excited about going into 2020. Most candidates are moving way to the left and endorsing Bernie's platform. This is a cause for celebration, because this is exactly what Bernie or busting in 2016 was intended to accomplish. However, one must be cautious as many candidates in 2020, like Kamala Harris, do not necessarily seem sincere or consistent in their endorsement of their policies. I really really REALLY want to like Harris and be excited for her
candidacy here, based on her on paper policies. But when I see this kind
of backpedaling and this stuff happening more behind the scenes, I'm
not quite as comfortable with her and wonder if she's bought and paid
for. I would encourage everyone to look deeply and thoroughly into the candidates' records, their statements, and their past and present policy positions IN ADDITION to their platforms. It seems like this is going to be an exciting primary in terms of on paper platforms and positions, but that said, only unique policy positions, are really going to make people stand out. The biggest thing that will likely differentiate the candidates isn't going to be policy or ideology, at least not on paper, but their character, history, and record. Choose wisely.
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