2020 Primary Update

So a few months ago I wrote a post based on data at the time suggesting that Bernie Sanders would win the nomination, Biden would implode, and Yang may have a breakout moment. Given the state of the race, I feel it would be good to revisit these predictions and update them to the current time based on what's happened since then.

The current polling averages:

Biden: 27.3%
Warren: 16.3%
Sanders: 14.8%
Harris: 14.3%
Buttigieg: 6.0%
O'Rourke: 2.5%
Yang: 1.8%
Booker: 1.8%
Gabbard: 1.5%
Klobuchar: 1.0%
Castro: 1.0%
Everyone else: <1.0%

A few things I want to comment on:

Biden is imploding, but still in the lead

Biden still maintains a decent lead but is losing support since the debate. I kind of expected this. It is unclear if he will lose frontrunner status soon as a lot of people are still supporting in despite his poor debate performance, but yikes, there are a lot of other candidates on his heels. Warren, Sanders, Harris. I suspect that if the progressives coalesce around a single candidate who gets most of the support of these three, they would wreck Biden and he will lose. However, Biden could still "Trump" it. Progressives could remain divided into camps, allowing Biden to eek out the nomination due to infighting kind of the way Trump did vs establishment conservatives in 2016. This is not to say voters should abandon their respective candidates in favor of "unity" as I believe there are significant ideological and policy differences between the second tier candidates and quite frankly it's way too early to unite. But I hope when the time comes we can at least get a progressive to beat Biden here. It would suck if Biden wins with 25% while Bernie, Harris, and Warren each have 15-20%.

I no longer feel confident in a Sanders victory

Let's face it. Sanders is not in the position he was in, in 2016. He's not an unknown. He's now very well known, and a lot of people don't like what they see. Some think he's divisive, some simply like another candidate more. And quite frankly, there's a lot to like. Yang supports basic income, Warren has been killing it with tons of detailed policies, and Harris has a lot of charisma and really let loose some zingers on Biden during the debates, attacking his record on things like busing in the 70s.

The numbers don't lie. Sanders is not doing well considering his position. He is no longer in a strong position to win. He still has a shot, but he's being overtaken by Warren and Harris is hot on his trail. I'm gonna be honest I'm surprised Sanders is doing so weakly, and Warren so strongly, but there's good reason for it. Sanders has a lot of good ideas but often does not articulate them well on debate stage, while Warren is very wonky and has been coming out with tons of detailed proposals. Warren is also attracting some mainstream democrats who are progressive but see Bernie as alienating. Harris also likes to play the part of a charismatic progressive on stage, which is attracting some support to her.

That said, Sanders has his work cut out for him. He not only needs to topple Biden, but he also needs to beat Warren who offers an alternative progressive vision to his, and Harris, who likes to say progressive things but not follow through.

Can Yang still have a breakout moment?

I'm gonna be honest, I thought when Yang got on the debate stage he would have a breakout moment, but he did very poorly at the debates. Part of this was MSNBC's fault, he claimed his microphone wasn't working and that he tried to butt in a few times, only to be unsuccessful. He got the least amount of talk time of any candidate on both nights, and when he did talk he talked fast and did not come off well. He seemed out of his depth. Regardless he will have future chances later this month, and he is on track to make the second round of debates, which puts him in the top 7 candidates. So he's not out of it. If anything despite poor coverage he still got a bump just for being there and getting people to google him.

I do have doubts he can win though. While I support the guy and he is currently my preferred candidate, I do not think his views are resonating in the party. The Bernie guys are moving toward a jobs guarantee, the Warren and Biden guys seem unwilling to consider such a radical idea without good reason, and while Harris has the "lift act", that's the closest thing to a UBI anyone has proposed who has a chance other than Yang.

It's a shame really. UBI is a good policy and most arguments against it come off as BS to me, but a lot of lefties are suddenly defending welfare and the like when Yang comes up, and he starts getting accused of being a right wing techno libertarian for his support of the idea. There's a lot of tribalism on the left right now and it's really killing the idea to some degree. The left is simply eating its own.

My own opinions on the candidates and who I want to win

As I said, I largely support Yang for his freedom dividend plan. While his implementation is flawed, I am hoping he corrects it if he wins the primary. And while he does not support the exact kinds of ideas I support on other major issues like healthcare and college, his views are still largely acceptable to me given his support for UBI.

Bernie is my second choice right now. I like his medicare for all and free college proposals, as well has his calls to abolish student debt. I'm not as big on the jobs guarantee nonsense and his outright opposition to UBI is a huge reason I've moved to Yang, but he's still clearly my second favorite choice. He's the OG progressive in recent years, the other candidates are largely attempting to copy him, and I see no reason to abandon him unless someone else supports an innovative idea  he doesn't like UBI.

Of the major candidates Warren is my third choice. She has a lot of good ideas, but she's more moderate and piecemeal with them a lot of the time. For example her student debt plan would only help people with under $50000 in debt and only if you meet certain income thresholds. She did endorse medicare for all in the debates but she previously dragged her feet with it. She just has a propensity for less radical solutions and band aids. While a huge improvement over Clinton I just think Sanders and Yang are much stronger candidates. I still like her though.

Harris is my fourth choice (ignoring weaker candidates like, say, Tulsi Gabbard). She sounds very progressive but as I said previously I dont trust her. She will say all these great things in debates but then she will change her mind or say she didn't mean it or misinterpreted the question or something. So she's mostly talk and little bite in my opinion.

Buttigieg has seriously lost favor with me since gaining popularity. He has moved a lot to the center and I just don't see the appeal of him any more. I dont dislike him like Biden or Delaney or Hickenlooper or something, but he just doesn't come off to me as a candidate I really would support over the above.

Beyond that the other choices are either polling too bad, or the candidates themselves are sufficiently lame in my opinion where I don't feel they're worth talking about. I don't like Biden, or Beto, or Booker, and don't think anyone else other than the ones above even have a shot.

Conclusion

A lot has changed in the last few months and while some previous predictions of mine, like Biden losing steam, seem to be coming true, other predictions seem off. Bernie seems to be stagnating, Yang has not had his breakout moment yet and might just fall flat given the current state of the party (although there's still hope), and Warren is overtaking Bernie in the polls with Harris just behind him. If I had to guess who would win right now, I would likely say Warren has a very good shot, or possibly Biden eeking it out simply from people failing to coalesce behind a single other candidate. Sanders is currently third or fourth in terms of likelihood to win, and is currently roughly tied with Harris. I don't know where things are going from here, but it's very competitive. I'd say 4 candidates have a very good shot at winning right now. Another 3-4 are maybes, but only if they can break out. And beyond that, I don't see much changing between now and when primaries start.