Okay, so we had two nights of presidential debates again, with the second being earlier tonight. I just wanted to give my thoughts on it.
Night 1
On night one, the dynamics were weird. I was expecting this Sanders-Warren showdown with most other candidates kinda being irrelevant, but instead we got everyone ganging up on Sanders and Warren with them largely taking similar positions and backing each other up. Some suggest CNN orchestrated this to shut down the progressive wing of the party. Have people like Delaney and Hickenlooper act as attack dogs against medicare for all. What ended up happening was the two candidates stuck together mostly and the centrists got thrashed. It was a beautiful thing to see.
It actually makes me kind of want a Sanders/Warren ticket if Yang fails to take off before the primaries start. To echo concerns from my previous article, I am genuinely concerned Sanders and Warren could split the progressive base allowing Biden to win. I would almost like to see the two campaigns join forces against the centrist candidates to lock out Biden and ensure one of them secures the nomination. I mean, I'm yang gang, but at the same time taking Yang out of the picture, a sanders/warren or warren/sanders ticket is literally my dream team at this point. Just saying. They work well together, and while I know some hardcore Sanders supporters think Warren is weak and a sell out, and Warren supporters are sometimes more moderate and see Sanders as divisive, progressives need to have each others' backs. We can criticize each other on the nuances of policy, but we ultimately need to defend each other against the onslaughts of the centrist establishment. Again, I'm Yang Gang. Andrew Yang is my preferred candidate. Hands down. But I'm perfectly willing to support Sanders or Warren if they get the nomination. I don't always agree with the nuances of their policies (the same can be said of Yang), but I'm willing to pull together for the big picture if I get most of what I want. Let's not be harsh to each other, even if we do critique each others' visions. It's better to get a progressive who may differ a bit in vision than to end up with a Hillary 2.0 like Biden.
Night 2
Tonight was a bit more like I expected on night 1. It was mostly Biden and Harris wrecking each other. Last month, Harris really slammed Biden good and hurt his polling numbers. Tonight, the opposite happened. Harris was nowhere near as charismatic. I felt she said a bunch of stuff, while saying nothing at all. She was boring, she was vapid. I think a lot of it comes down to the fact that she wasn't a real progressive and not a true believer on these issues. Biden is a centrist. He plays the pragmatist card, and he plays it well. He knows how to defend his ideas in debates. I hate Biden as a candidate but he's a good debater. Harris....last time she gave a lot of platitudes only to walk them back on medicare for all. Shortly before this debate she decided to back a specific plan intended to be more progressive than Biden's, but less so than Warren or Sanders. And everyone hated it. The progressives hate it for not being progressive enough and preserving the private industry, and Biden claims it destroys it and went after it like he would full blown medicare for all. And sadly Harris just couldn't defend it well. She's strattling ideals like FDR warned democrats about. And she just couldn't pull off a good defense like Warren or Sanders did on the night before. I expect her poll numbers to shrink.
Now, as for Yang. Yang did good. He got the last amount of time and was largely ignored again, but it's not his fault. CNN was stricter on the debate dynamics and controlled who spoke and when to a much larger degree. They gave tons of time to the spat between Harris and Biden but didn't give Yang much time. However, when he spoke, man he upped his game. He made very strong points on issues like the economy, healthcare, and immigration. His healthcare pitch was strangely pushing for progressive ideas with right wing framing, claiming that private health insurance inhibiting hiring of employees and the like. It was interesting to see. I will say he kind of had a habit of linking everything to basic income though and it kind of back fired. Like on climate change, he basically bypassed the green new deal and said basic income would help people move to higher ground. I mean...what?! Okay, I understand Yang's position here. He claims a green new deal won't do much to climate change because the US is only responsible for 15% of emissions and even if we curbed ours that doesn't mean China or India or Russia will curb theirs. Fair point. But his position came off as kind of tone deaf and made him sound like a single issue candidate. Again, I get it. As someone who strongly advocates for UBI and would consider myself an advocate for the concept, I understand how useful UBI is for society and how it helps so many people in so many situations. But he needs to be a little more dynamic and not turn everything into a UBI discussion. This coming from the guy who turns everything into a UBI discussion. Other than that though Yang was great and I expect to see a big boost. This might be his breakthrough moment.
Overall
Overall I would say the last two nights were largely a win for progressives I favor and a loss for most centrists, minus Biden. Warren, Sanders, and Yang all performed well and I expect them to gain support. Biden defended his ideas from Harris, and Harris kind of imploded last night. Harris is the big loser of the major candidates this debate and I expect her to tank.
Next debate is going to have much stricter qualifications. You'll need to poll 2% in 4 polls and get so many donors to qualify. Major candidates will achieve this no problem. Yang is kind of on the border here and likely will qualify but still is in danger of not doing so (although after last night I think he will easily). I expect there to be around 6-8 candidates next time. We will almost definitely see Biden, Harris, Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg. I also think Beto, Yang, and maybe Booker will likely qualify. Below that, who knows, I think most of the others are gonna get the axe. Most won't be missed. Except maybe Williamson and Inslee.
