Ok, I'm going to be brief, again, vacation and all, but I figured an election update is something that is relatively easy to do. I've been hearing lately about how suddenly Clinton is doomed and Trump is coming up and can win and blah blah blah, but in all honestly, from what I can tell, he's really only come up by a little bit where the election wouldn't be a total blow out. Keep in mind just how badly Trump has been doing as I've covered here. How even my Trump +3 models show Clinton still winning by a hefty margin. Trump hasn't come up by 3 points, but by 1-2, so really, not a whole lot has changed. Trump is screwed and he will continue to be screwed for some time until he makes more serious improvements. This could be the beginning of a trend but i doubt it will amount to much.
Aggregate polling - 3.9% Clinton (down from 5.4%)
So this monumental shift we've been hearing about for Trump is about 1.5%, whoopie. Not a big deal.
Aggregate polling with third party candidates - 3.2% Clinton (down from 4.0%)
So we see a "spoiler effect" of less than a point. Not a huge deal.
Electoral College
The biggest change is that
Missouri is now enough of a swing state that I feel like it's justified
in including it in my analysis.
Arizona - 2.5% Trump (up from 1.5%)
Florida - 2.7% Clinton (down from 3.6%)
Georgia - 1.6% Trump (flipped from Clinton)
Iowa - 0.8% Trump (flipped from Clinton)
Missouri - 3.0% Trump (no change)
Nevada - 2.3% Clinton (no change)
North Carolina - 0.5% Clinton (down from 1.7%)
Ohio - 3.8% Clinton (down from 4.8%)
Maine CD2 - 1% Trump (no change)
Realclearpolitics
seems to be adding Pennsylvania and Virginia back to the list of swing
states since Clinton's lead shrank back to 5-6 points, but I'm still not
going to include them here because they're not relevant to my
projections unless I wanna bring back projections that actually take
into account those shifts. Honestly, I'm more interested in states with
less than 3-4 points though because I rarely see aggregates being wrong
outside of like a point or two, at least not in 2008 or 2012. Anyway,
time to look at the scenarios.
Election Scenarios
Most likely scenario with no swing states (<=3% lead) - 290-154 Clinton
Most likely scenario with toss ups (<=1% lead) - 325-191 Clinton
Most likely scenario (best guess) - 340-198 Clinton
All toss ups Clinton (Clinton + 1) - 347-191 Clinton
Clinton + 2 - 363-175 Clinton
Clinton + 3 - 384-154 Clinton
All toss ups Trump (Trump + 1) - 325-213 Clinton
Trump + 2 - 325-213 Clinton
Trump + 3 - 290-248 Clinton
Trump + 4 - 272-266 Clinton
Trump + 5 - 272-266 Clinton
Trump + 6 - 229-309 Trump
Conclusion
All in all, we saw a mild shift since my last update. A 1.5-2 point shift in many battleground states has cost Clinton like 20-40 electoral votes, but considering how far ahead she is, this doesn't matter that much. As we can see, Clinton still firmly controls the electoral college even if she loses most the closer battleground states. It would really take the +6 scenario where she loses Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Virginia to win. Trump still faces an uphill battle, and while he has made significant gains, all scenarios of him winning are still very hypothetical at this point. The most realistic scenarios very heavily favor Clinton.
PS. I apologize but in making this, I accidentally messed up my 8/24 update. I tend to copy and paste old updates and change the info to make new ones, and in doing so I accidentally edited the old one with new info, essentially messing up the entry. Anyway, you got a new update, so you don't need it anyway =P.
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