So, we many of you know, we had our first debate between Biden and Trump last night. And as many of you probably know, it was a dumpster fire. I've come to have low standards for what passes as "debates" on the national stage in this country for a while now, but this managed to reach a new low. It was a microcosm for everything wrong with America today. You have loud mouth republicans acting like uncivil bullies and browbeating subservient democrats who are desperate to prove they aren't in fact radical leftists into line. Biden sucked, Trump sucked, the entire thing was a disaster, and I'd be reluctant to call a winner in effect, but if I had to call it for one, it would be for Trump. This seems unpopular in liberal circles I frequent, with many of them seeing Trump as a bully. It also seems unpopular among undecided voters, who seemed to dislike both candidates and seem alienated from the process, but ultimately hated Trump more. But, having watched a lot of debates and observed the dynamics of many of them, I have to say that despite how grating Trump is, that he actually probably won more than Biden.
How I view debates
Part of the reason I hold this controversial view is because I have a controversial view of debates in general. Many people expect debates to be about two or more people coming together and actually having a thoughtful discussion on issues and trying to make stronger arguments than the other. That's the idealized view of how debates are supposed to work. However, political debates are a farce. Both in 2016 and 2020, debates have shown to be far less about actual issues being discussed in a fair and biased way, but as a way for various candidates to show off their political chops. Sound, dry policy is boring and never takes center stage. What seems to matter for most are the zingers, and maintaining control of the narrative. A huge reason I believe Bernie, for example, never did well in debates, is because the center of ideological gravity was to his right in them. As in, the questions and lines of discussion were framed from a perspective to his right. Candidates who don't fit the mold often find themselves on the defensive and find themselves in a poor position to make their views known, because they're never allowed to sit down and fully explain their views. They're asked often loaded questions and then given 2 minutes to respond. No, debates are about ideological control, they're about charisma. They're about guiding the discussion to go where you want it to go, and for the discussions to be had on your terms. Debates are about power. They're about saying things that stand out. I've watched many political debates in my life, and back around 2014 when I was really fine tuning my views, I watched at least one debate from every presidential election going back to the 1970s. And I find that no one really likes the boring, dry, intelligent candidates. They like the charismatic ones and the one liners. No one remembers Walter Mondale taking down Reagan's trickle down economics, but they remember Reagan saying "there you go again." So to me, who wins a debate is about who makes a stronger case for their views and who dominates the discussion. I've seen many debates where I'd say the person I disagreed with did a better job, simply because they were able to put forward better arguments on their own terms while their opponent was uncharismatic, underprepared, or caught off guard in some way. I've even seen this happen among more factual debates between atheists and Christians. I've seen Christians with terrible arguments win simply because the atheist didn't have charisma, didn't know how to debate, or was unprepared. Many atheists have a tendency to underprepare, and when a Christian uses unorthodox arguments, well, the Christian can actually win the debate. It doesn't make him right. It just means he won the discussion.
How I felt like the debate would go and what I expected from the two candidates
Here's the thing. Going into the debate, I gave Biden a massive advantage. Trump has nothing. He is literally the worst president in American history at this point, in my opinion, and really has no legitimate case for a second term. All he has are lies, misinformation, and attacks against Biden. He has no real argument. That said, I knew Trump would likely lie a lot. And his key to success is, in my opinion, lying and not being called out on it. Framing the debate from his perspective and Biden fumbling in the moment. Biden being attacked and not being able to respond properly. If Trump can do that, successfully, then Trump can win the debate. On the other hand, Biden has a much easier job in my opinion. The dude has to be a fact checking machine in tip top form. Much like he did with the final debate vs Sanders in the primary, which caught many by surprise, what Biden had to do here was to be at the top of his game and respond to Trump in real time, proving he isn't really "sleepy Joe" in cognitive decline, and hold Trump accountable for his record. Biden barely had to make a case for himself at all. All he had to do was show he was competent and that Trump was not. Hammer home how badly Trump has handled various crises and tripping him up.
So what happened?
I won't go through the entire debate play by play, but the summary was this. Trump came out of the gate very aggressively. Too aggressively. He flooded the debate with gish gallops against Biden and made so many lies that Biden couldn't realistically respond to all of them in the debate format. He spun the facts to his favor to make it to an uninformed viewer who doesn't fact check this stuff, that he was large and in charge, while Biden would not have been. He spun covid back on Biden and said if he were in office he would've done a worse job. Biden did an okay job at responding to this, but he seemed too off kilter to really take on Trump as firmly as he needed to.
I want to emphasize that. Biden, given what he had to work with, didn't do a bad job. I don't think he did particularly well, but he didn't do terrible either. But Biden seemed unprepared for this. You see, this is something democrats do often. They try too hard to play by the rules, and be civil and polite, and expect to work with republicans and expect them to also play by the rules, but they never actually do. So the right just walks all over them, and they don't really fight back as firmly as they wanted. Biden should've known Trump would try something like this, and he should've been more prepared. I've seen Biden debate before and I've seen him in a much sharper state. I won't say Biden was necessarily "sleepy Joe", but he wasn't the Joe Biden who took on Paul Ryan in 2012 either.
The worst part of it all was Trump constantly had Biden on the defense. Trump made one wild accusation after another. That he's a radical socialist. That he wants to abolish health insurance. That his green new deal would bankrupt the country. He fought Biden as if he were Bernie, forcing him to distinguish himself from Bernie. This, actually was a very smart play by Trump. Because whenever Biden would back away from Bernie's ideas, Trump would then turn around and say "you lost the left". And I have to say, as a leftie voting for Hawkins....he's not wrong. Biden was forced to take stands on controversial ideas within his platform. That he's not for medicare for all, or a green new deal. That he is the face of the democratic party and that it is, in fact, a centrist party. Trump was very smart using that form of psychological warfare on his base to demoralize them, and I think it worked. I also think, echoing sentiments of independent voters who weren't convinced Biden had solutions for the country, that it might've discouraged people from supporting Biden as well. Because let's be honest, Biden doesn't stand for anything. His big argument is being more competent than Trump. He's another third way politician who relies on triangulation to appeal both to the left and the center for votes, and when Trump accuses him of being a leftist, and Biden denies it, it costs him the votes of actual leftists who are demoralized. This is entirely a Biden and democratic party problem. They keep insisting on this strategy, and it opens them up to aggressive attacks from Trump. Biden's ideal strategy was to go on the offense and often times, he didn't. That's not to say that he didn't attack Trump at all. He had a few good moments in there. But given Trump's lies, to an uninformed viewer, it likely would come down to immature he said she said games. Trump was just that good at crafting his arguments.
Ultimately, I'm reluctant to call a winner here. Both candidates sucked. As a more informed viewer, Biden came off as very boring. Sometimes he took charge and discussed things like covid very masterfully, but other times he seemed to get caught in Trump's traps, reminding his base that he doesn't represent large portions of them. On the flip side, Trump was overbearing and while he dominated the debate, he was insufferable. There was also that moment where he refused to condemn white supremacy. Trump is going outright fascist at times this election and that should be concerning. Thankfully, he is getting a lot of negative coverage for that.
All in all, will this debate change anyone's mind? No. Probably not. Trump voters seemed to think Trump won, Biden voters seemed to think Biden won, and undecideds seem more alienated than ever. But if I had to choose a candidate who won, I would say Trump, mainly because his chosen debate style wreaked chaos, deflected from his flaws, and managed to drag Biden down too. Which is all he had to do. Trump played his hand well considering he basically didn't have a hand, and Biden could've played his better. This seems to be an unpopular take, but that's how I see it.
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