So, this time Mike Pence and Kamala Harris had a debate last night. I won't go on about it long, but I feel like this is a good follow up to last week. Long story short, my initial reaction was that Harris won commandingly. And here's why.
Mike Pence had similar talking points to Donald Trump but was less likely to talk over everyone else. This made him appear weaker than Trump last week, because both Trump and Pence have literally nothing to work with. Pence's strategy was to lob every wild accusation and attack at Harris, and almost none of them hit. Pence also dodged and evaded virtually every question thrown at him. While I argued Trump won last week because I feel like he controlled the narrative of the debate, Pence failed to do that. The attempted blows did not connect and made Pence seem unhinged, and he had little to offer of substance for himself.
On the other hand Kamala Harris had it together. She was very aggressive relative to Biden and had good answers to most questions. She dodged a few, such as the court packing one, but she ultimately did a very good job at defending Biden's platform. She was calm, in control, and when Pence tried to talk over her a couple times like Trump did, she handled him like an adult handles a child. She said I'm speaking and then went on with it.
That said, I feel like Harris' performance was very much improved from Biden's last week and reached the peak I expected from the ticket, while Pence performed more like I expected Trump to last week and while he didn't fall apart, he dodged, lied, and obfuscated his way through it.
Now, the real question is who the public thinks won. I was surprised to learn after watching Trump vs Biden that a lot of people didn't like Trump's performance. Honestly, this is a bias on my own part, I tend to think the American public particularly undecided voters aren't very informed, and go with "who sounds better". Biden came off as weak and uninspiring, Trump was very aggressive and dominated the discussion, and normally I would suspect most neutral parties would go for the person with a better debate form who controlled the debate. Instead people wanted their 1.5 hours back and said Biden won...if anyone. Most were just too frustrated with the whole affair.
This time, it seems a lot more...mixed. A lot of people suddenly like Pence but think Harris was overbearing or something. WHAT?! Admittedly there was a bit of a gender gap, with mostly males thinking this, and it seemed to be an instance of sexism, but I did NOT get that at all when I watched that. To me Harris was in control whereas last week Biden was not. Pence lost control and since the Trump/Pence ticket literally has nothing but shady debate tactics, I actually gave them a lot of credit. But to see the opposite reaction this week with backlash against Harris is weird to me. Almost makes me feel like the Hillbots in 2016 had a point with some voters. To be fair the polling shifted back toward Harris, but it seems to largely be along the lines of who people are voting for anyway, with people preferring the candidate they're closer to them.
But yeah, it's weird. I admit I'm more likely to be democratic party bias, but I really don't like either. As I've stated many times I voted Stein in 2016 and I'm voting Hawkins this time. I really don't like either party and while democrats are better than republicans, to me I just see "crazy republican vs moderate republican." And I generally grade debate performance based on who I think did a better job regardless of party affiliation. I've seen people I agree with flop in debates. I've seen people I can't stand win. If I felt Pence did a good job I would've said so, but I felt like Harris was just far more substantive and that Pence seemed evasive and his wild accusations didn't connect. I felt Trump pushed Biden into a corner last week and Biden didn't really respond strongly, but here I felt the roles were reversed. And it's strange, the public actually hated Trump last week and some people disliked Harris this week. I just don't get it. I mean with Harris it appears to be a legit case of actual sexism at work, but I guess that aggression doesn't work if you come off as childish like Trump does either? We'll have to see I guess.
Anyway I'm tempted to make another election forecast but I'll wait another week. Biden has gained a lot of ground in the past week between the debate and Trump getting COVID, but at the same time I don't know if this lead will be permanent or is just a fluctuation. We'll have to see. Probably will make and release it next Tuesday as that seems to be when tons of polls from the weekend and previous week come in. I don't want to make something only for it to not be relevant in 2 days.
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