Good news, everyone, Ilhan Omar essentially just wrote a bill to give everyone a guaranteed income. And being the policy wonk I am, I'm going to analyze it and give it a grade as per my existing metric.Without further ado, let's get into it.
Is this a real UBI?
...not quite. It's essentially a giant tax credit. It is granted to households from my understanding, and has a means tested income limit of $150k a married couple, $112.5k for a head of household, and $75k for a single filer. It also does a lot in order to facilitate income to those who are tax payers, even going so far to give it to illegal immigrants, and attempts to implement a federal banking system for those without a bank account. Still, it is a tax credit, and not a real UBI.
EDIT: according to the UBI center it applies to people with zero income. Therefore, I will raise the score slightly, but not all the way because it's still similar to an NIT.
14/20
What about the amount?
Well, first there's going to be a pilot, with an implementation of the real UBI in 2028. It will be $1200 a month, or $14,400 a year. Children are also supposed to get $600 a month. Assuming inflation will raise the poverty like by 10% in the next 7 years, this will be above the poverty line, and around what I would expect my own UBI to offer in 2028. I'll give it a pass.
20/20
Is it regressive?
Well lets be honest, tax credit for anyone under $75k-150k? Score. Beyond that income level it phases out at a rate of 5 cents for every dollar earned. Sounds very progressive.
20/20
How is it funded?
So...is it just me or does this sound too good to be true? I think I read somewhere this plan is expected to cost $3.8 trillion or so, yet there's no talk of funding, just in disbursing the money. We don't know. If it comes out of thin air that would be disastrous, and we don't know what this will look like if we modify the tax code to account for these changes.
That's the thing. You have this plan that just gives out money like crazy, and isnt regressive, and there's zero talk about how to fund it. At all. Too good to be true.
0/20
Does it guarantee the right to say no?
This is very unclear. But, given it's an NIT, with no clear discussion about whether those who do not file taxes are even eligible, we really don't know if it does or not? Let's just say even if people are allowed to claim the benefit without work, due to the structure of such a thing there's a lot of precarity involved and I doubt that feature will have staying power. i could see it being modified by a future conservative or triangulating neoliberal. Still, there's nothing saying someone in such a position can't, but whether this is intended is debatable.
EDIT: People with no income can file for it, therefore I will raise the score a bit, but not all the way as it is still vulnerable to future policy reversals.
15/20
Overall score: 69/100 - D+
Okay, seriously, discuss how to fund your plans and make them realistic, people. The biggest issue with this plan is it's too good to be true and it does not discuss funding at all. This plan would cost $3.8 trillion a year or something, and it seems overly optimistic and too good to be true. I can tell you from experience with my own UBI plans that Omar has not done the math, and that this is not a realistic policy and that is the biggest downfall leading to such a low score.
Beyond that, the other issue is that it is approaching this from a tax credit perspective, and I see that as a weak and inferior way to do UBI as it makes a weaker moral argument and is more vulnerable to policy reversals.
Still, I am happy to see UBI hit the mainstream, even if it is in such a flawed form. And maybe this can be negotiated into something workable, although I'm guessing it would end up becoming an even more flawed tax credit. Still, it's something.
EDIT: I learned a bit more about it thanks to the UBI Center, and have adjusted grading accordingly.
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