Election update 9/27/24

 So, it's my first week back at home, so let's do an actual full on election prediction. The last few have been abridged due to time constraints, but now I can really let loose what I think about this presidential race.

Presidential

So, not a lot changed in general, but a lot of shifts worth talking about around the edges. Finally got Colorado data, that's safe dem. Nebraska CD2 is now safe. Maine CD2 is now a toss up for the GOP, but to be blunt, that D+5 poll was an outlier anyway. I mean Maine as a whole was D+17 in that poll and i believe the other one which had it at D+9 was more accurate. I readded Maine to my chart despite being >12 because I don't trust that data and believe D+9 is probably more accurate. Iowa is now R+4, but I also dont really trust that. I could see it being R+7 or so based on the other states given Biden's data, but down to "lean R"? Nah, more like likely R IMO. Basically, it's red Oregon, Oregon being on here based on one D+5 poll when it's probably way safer than that. I didn't even have Oregon on my list when Biden was running, and I had NY, IL, and WA on here then. 

So that said there are a handful of states that likely are somewhat inaccurate. but data is data, error happens, and while I can make judgment calls on it, I mostly like to let it speak for itself. 

On the big 7 swing states. Lots of fluctuations. As I discussed the other day, Harris tends to get waves of polls that push the race in her favor, but then I get lots of more red leaning polls that end up clawing back those gains. We're literally in tossup territory, with Harris having a 58.9% chance and Trump a 41.1% chance. I mean, it's still anyone's game but trump can win. I did simulations too, with Harris winning 57 of them, Trump 40, and there being 3 ties. Here's the overall trend line with the overall election odds.

As for the electoral map, I currently have 276-262 in Harris's favor. 

It's still a close race. I mean, again, anything between 60-40 is effectively a tossup. And let's not forget what that means in practice. Trump can still win this, just like he did in 2016. It wouldn't take much for this outcome to happen:

But...at the same time, we could also get this, if things go in the other direction:

And we could reasonably get any combination of those 7 swing states going in any weird way. Not to mention lower probabilities of the "likely" races flipping. It can happen. Wisconsin was "likely dem" in 2016. And again, if it goes the way it did in 2016 relative to polling, well, expect the Trump win map. 

But yeah. This is anyone's game. Heck there's even talk of republicans trying to make Nebraska winner take all to steal the NE2 vote for Trump giving us 269-269 in the event of an otherwise 270-268 Harris win. This whole race could be decided by legal screwery. We could see another 2000 happen again with a handful of votes in PA or NV deciding the whole thing (a huge reason, I'm just going Harris this time). VOTE! Really, if you want your side to win, vote. Even if you dont live in the 7 swing states. We could, in theory, see Virginia, Minnesota, or New Hampshire flip on the dem side. We could see Iowa, Texas, or Florida flip in the GOP side. They're not the likely outcomes but they can happen roughly one time out of nine or so.

So yeah, that's my view on the presidential race. It's a nail biter. Anyone can win. Yes, if I had to call it, I'd call it for Harris, but I called 2016 for Clinton and look at how that turned out. Same thing here. VOTE!

Senate

With the senate, not a lot has changed. Ohio is contested somewhat on the democratic side. Beyond that, it's pretty stagnant with most races clearly leaning one way or another. Still 49-51R. Still an 86% chance the GOP wins. Still a 3% chance of a tie. Still an 11% chance that the dems win. 

Of course the simulations tell a slightly different story, with the GOP winning 83 outcomes, the dems winning 2, and there being 15 50-50 ties. 

I tend to believe the trend model of elections over the kinds of outcomes my simulator produces, but again, it shows what can happen, and I do trust it enough to tell me which way the race is leaning and who has more potential paths to victory statistically. 

Anyway, here's the senate map.

Conclusion

So yeah. It's a close race. The presidential is gonna be razor thin, and the senate, while likely going to go republican, isn't guaranteed to. The dems can pull off an upset there, especially if they win the presidency, which would turn a 50-50 tie into a de facto democratic senate majority. 

Vote. Make sure you're registered. Make sure you got a plan, whether it be to vote by mail or show up in person on election day. But please vote.