Friday, September 11, 2026

Election Update 9/11/26

 "Sir, another democrat favorable poll has hit the averages..." *Bush face*

  Yeah. That's what it feels like these days. So...I got a lot to talk about with this one. Let's get to it.

Senate

So....we finally got some good data out of South Carolina and Kansas, which mostly corroborated those crazy polling averages that made me revert my Nebraska data, since it actually does seem reasonable to believe Osborn may be winning or at least within a reasonable range of doing so. 

This makes the map look REALLY bad for republicans. Not only are they losing states that were previously unthinkable like Alaska and Texas, but now Kansas and South Carolina are showing up as swing states. Like, what the actual fudge? Yeah, this is NUTS. Trump is REALLY unpopular and he's losing badly. 

House

This I don't have as much to talk about. Average lurched back toward the democrats a bit more, making the forecast more favorable. 


 Governors

 

Here, a few more dem leaning governors got added to this. I dont expect Minnesota or New York to flip any time soon, but I like to track everything within around 12 points or so, so those got added. Maine is technically out of range but I'll keep it for now since it's being tracked pretty regularly and it's already there. 

Conclusion

This week's forecast is really bullish on democrats, even more than normal. I really have to be wondering, is this real? or are republicans REALLY doing this bad? I kinda gotta believe the numbers because I look at trump and I honestly wonder how anyone, even someone who is conservative, can support this guy. Seriously. So maybe he really is doing this bad? Either way, happy to see it, and hope this holds out come election time. Like always though i would advise anyone reading this to use a bit of caution here. If republicans have a reasonable overperformance, all of these crazy gains can be reversed and they'll still hold onto the senate, as I've discussed before. I really do think the republicans taking the house is highly unlikely though.  

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