So I'm doing it Friday after all, last Saturday had nothing and then Sunday had a bunch of polls. So I guess there isn't a good day to just put them up for a weekly update, but not doing it on Friday felt off, so...yay, Friday.
Senate
So, this is obviously a busy time of year with polls, and with more info we get, the less any specific info matters. it moves the needle less, and things arent shifting around wildly, just 1/10ths of a percent, really. So the map isn't really changing. This week, Maine, Alaska, and Minnesota have regained some of their D advantage, while Texas has lost a little. Arkansas is now a swing state. Added it today with it only being R+7. And think about that for a second, just how bad are you F-ing up as a republican to get ARKANSAS down to R+7?! It's insane. This is a completely bonkers map for democrats. And you know what? I did a futuristic forecast for a discussion yesterday about what the senate will look like, and this map is so nuts that in 6 years, when the dems likely have a normal election in 2032, they're gonna LOSE several seats because they won't be able to replicate how bonkers this map is. Unless this is a permanent trend and we're really seeing realignment into the 7th party system FOR REAL, yeah. This map won't be able to be replicated again next time. Even a decent night for dems might cause them to lose 3-4 seats. That's just how good THIS map is for the dems.
Obviously, it's not a lock though. A republican overperformance of R+2.5 will still net the republicans the senate. And the odds of that happening is around 25%. 28% if we wanna go by the actual tipping point. So keep in mind, nothing is written in stone here. This is a forecast that measures current averages and relative probabilities. Unless youre up by 8+, you're not really out of the woods. Even then, at 8 points, there's still a 2.3% chance, or about 1 in 45 or so, that something can go funky. Probably won't happen, but you never know.
But yeah, dems favored in senate, likely 54-46 or 53-47 D, with a 65% chance of control.
House
Governors
Still, something to keep in mind. We are 2.5 weeks out from election day. The momentum of changes from here, especially in that last week is essential. It could tell us what direction the momentum is going. Keep in mind, polling is a lagging indicator. you can take a poll today, it won't be published until next week some time, and by then the electorate can change its mind. With that said, if we see significant movement from here that can't be attributed to just new data where I had a lack thereof before, that could be meaningful to figure out what side of the aisle the polling error will favor. Remember 2016. it was supposed to be a massive blue wave for clinton then as the last minuters made up their minds it shifted to Trump. So the momentum we see from here can be important.
At the same time, voting is already happening. I got my ballot this week, already filled it out and turned it in. So to some degree, the maps we're seeing now can be indicative of where the electorate is going, especially in states with widespread mail in ballots and other early voting practices. With that said, it's like Jim Carrey once said in Sonic the Hedgehog. "The time for talking is over! It's time to push buttons!" The button pushing is already happening. Sure, we'll still have significant day of voting that can tip elections either way, but minds are already being made up and some votes are already in.
Conclusion
With that said, while we are seeing some votes already being cast...there's still a lot of room for change on election day. Especially as the tuned out middle starts tuning in asking deep questions like "is Ted Cruz running against James Talarico?" and "how do I vote for president Trump again?" I've heard anecdotes suggesting people are literally asking things like that, similar to asking "why isn't Joe Biden running again" at this time in 2024. Yeah...the average voter is horrifically uneducated and very unpredictable. Polling tells us the direction things are going, +/- a few points, but given that +/- a few points, things are uncertain. If I had to guess, the general electorate is gonna vote against the incumbents. However, it's very possible they don't even know republicans ARE the incumbents. Like, really, despite all of this math I'm doing, the outcome is still very much in question and a few points can decide the fate of, for example, the senate. It's amazing the democrats have a chance there, it's even more amazing that they're ahead, but who knows how far they'll STAY ahead. Republicans seem to overperform polls a lot in the past decade or so. At the same time, they're also messing up really really bad. I like to say, inside me, there are two wolves. One of them asks: "How come the republicans still have any support at all?" and the other asks "how TF is Arkansas now a swing state?!" I guess I kind of reconcile those two views with the idea that I fully believe 40% of the population to be unreachable politically, but yeah. Even accounting for that, and how much I'd expect the maps to shift from 2024, this is beyond my wildest dreams. Doesnt mean it's a lock that it will happen, but generally speaking its about 65-35 that it does. Which is a lot higher than it has any business being.
But yeah, not a ton has changed, some people are voting already and this is indicative of their voting habits, but at the same time, things CAN change by election day. Keep in mind I had Clinton up by 6 at this point in 2016 with her having an 81% chance of winning. Still, I honestly ain't expecting any cavalry to come to save the republicans this time when gas is $4.35 a gallon around me currently.
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