Friday, April 29, 2022

Discussing Rammstein's Angst music video

 So, I don't normally discuss my musical tastes on here as this is a political blog, but anyone who knows me off of here knows I have an unhealthy obsession with German metal, ESPECIALLY Rammstein. And today they released a new album. So why I am I discussing them on a political blog? because they also released a single called Angst, which is political in nature. And while they have discussed politics in the past, nothing they wrote was particularly relevant to topics I felt like discussing. But given my current train of thought on topics like politics post 1968 in the US, party alignments and realignments, and discussion regarding books from people like Robert Putnam and Thomas Frank, it only felt right to discuss this video.

So, I linked it above, but the overall summary is that the song is about "angst" or "fear" in English. It seems to discuss authoritarian tendencies, stuff like fake news, polarization, racism, etc. Essentially, the video starts off with the band members all sitting around a Tranquility Lane type square where they're all neighborly. It has an old schools 1950s American suburbia vibe. Wearing sweater vests, reading newspapers, mowing their lawn, grilling. You know, the good old American past time. Strange to see from a German band, but it fits. But, all of them have a computer. And a disfigured guy is tied down and brought up to a podium, and he is essentially hooked up to the internet. This disfigured man is the "schwarzen man" or "boogeyman" discussed in the song (although it also translates to "black man", more on this later). The song is about how uneducated men can be prone to authoritarianism and fear of the other. As the respective band members start listening to the "boogeyman" through their computers, they start becoming increasingly paranoid. This causes them to surround themselves with walls and barbed wire, and ultimately get access to weapons to defend themselves. They really are lampooning America hard here as one band member even starts kissing his rifle like the guy from the Cyanide and Happiness video on guns. Ultimately, they become so paranoid that they start shooting their computers, causing the walls to crumble around them. By the end of the song, they're all sitting around and watching TV while eating a specific kind of snack I'll discuss a bit later to discuss a certain alternative meaning of the song. But, even though they're more united, they're still susceptible to propaganda, and are watching refugees alone on TV. Realizing what is happening one band member destroys the TV and the color returns to their world.

So, now discussing meaning. The most obvious interpretation is taking a swipe at Trumpers and their equivalents in Europe like Brexiters in the UK, Front National in France, AFD in Germany, etc. Essentially, while the song starts out with everyone acting neighborly, they all start listening to the boogeyman talking to them through their computers, causing them to become more polarized and distrustful of each other. This has a lot of different forms of symbolism. The most blatant is one of literal fascism, good, normal people becoming susceptible to extreme propaganda and becoming more authoritarian and outwardly fascist. But it also has a lot of interesting meaning here in US politics, since it's taking swipes at us. I mean, both in Robert Putnam's Upswing and Thomas Frank's listen liberal, we've seen the fall of the collective in America since the literal 1950s, and the rise of the individual. Starting in the 1960s, we went from being relatively collectivist and being all on the same page, to being more individualist and on different pages. While people will blame social media for this, and that seems to be a clear theme I picked up on in the song, I'd argue the roots of this are deeper than just social media. They go all the way back to the 1960s, and the internet has just accelerated this. For me, the internet isn't the inherent problem. It's just making it worse. As people start going online they fall into their own echo chambers, listening to people who largely or only agree with them. And this causes them to become more distrustful of their neighbors. And while this song has a right wing theme to it, I have a warning for the left, YOU'RE DOING IT TOO. All of this social justice culture is a form of this. People put their sanctimony above comradery with their fellow man. Wanting to censor others? Even physically assault them like some leftists want to do? They're falling into their own forms of authoritarian tendencies. Hence one of the reasons I dislike cancel culture, and why I'm taking potshots at the extreme left and their extreme purity testing. Even I'm somewhat guilty of this, but I've kind of gone in a different direction, which has made me feel relatively politically homeless lately. But yeah, we basically are in that boogeyman stage. And both sides are doing it. obviously the right is chasing ghosts like immigrants, critical race theory, etc., but the left is also doing its own versions of this, and it's dangerous too. 

But, let's go back to the song. Is the solution to go back to a time before social media? No. And I think Rammstein demonstrated this as well. Sure, we can get rid of social media and be more "united" like some "moderates" want. I always see moderates lamenting the past where they miss a time where we could be more civil and on the same page. but that past was still authoritarian. And we see that at the end. They're all sitting around watching TV at the end, having gotten rid of their computers, and all agreeing again...but you notice anything off? Well, they're all white. And they're watching refugees on TV. And it kind of has a point. This mythical past where we were all on the same page was never that great. First of all, TV has been a source of propaganda since long before the internet. You think fox news and rush limbaugh didn't help create the problems with modern america? Before 2016 and the focus on social media TV was seen as dividing and misleading people, with accusations of right wing media being propaganda. And of course, MSNBC and CNN are propaganda too. They're just democratic party aligned propaganda. but as someone who is more left wing, it doesn't mean that they don't shut out those they dont like either. Heck, I blame some of the social media induced polarization on the fact that traditional media has alienated a lot of people, causing them to lose their trust in it. And honestly? I'd argue traditional media deserves some of that. The image of togetherness was always a farce, and it was always held together by propaganda. it just used to be we all listened to the same propaganda and all agreed, whereas now we listen to our own propaganda sources and are more atomized as a result. So, in the Rammstein song, getting rid of the TV was what it took to free people of all propaganda. Not that that actually would work in practice, but it really does make you think...who or what are you listening to? Where do you get your information from? Is it reliable? I mean, you honestly should question everything if you ask me. Even me. I can sometimes be wrong, and I don't hold a monopoly on truth. if you don't like what I say, I can respect that to a large extent. As long as you can justify your views with reliable evidence of course.  

Now, to discuss another theme in the video. That of racism. The Schwarzen Man wasn't JUST the boogeyman. It was also "the black man"....and I think this double meaning is intentional. Because a lot of polarization in America and Europe is driven by racism. The seeds of our own modern situation came in the 1960s, and beyond shifting from collectivism to individualism, we also had a backlash to the civil rights movement in the 1960s, which led to the rise of modern conservatism. And a lot of modern conservatism is based on racism and dog whistle politics. But for a generation, it was on the down low. But Trump made it more overt, and now the right is trending toward more outright fascism. This phenomenon is happening in Europe to with the rise of far right parties looking to keep refugees from the Middle East and Africa out of Europe. So in some ways, people literally are fearing "the black man" and it's driving them to nationalism. 

Which gives an alternative meaning to the end of the song. Again, that old consensus was great on paper, but it was always exclusionary. it primarily benefitted whites. In America, the 1950s unity was always white driven and came at the expense of people of other races. And going back to that just reinforces those old boundaries. So Rammstein is kind of critiquing that too. Also, that snack they're eating? According to people on Rammstein forums from Germany, that snack actually has a pretty infamous racist nickname, translating to something like "N word kiss". That seemed to be pretty intentional and is something that would go over an American's head, but I did appreciate that detail. But yeah. A lot of enlightened centrists talk such a big game about how great the old days of unity were, but they really just want unity with white people, they don't want to welcome POC and the like in their ranks. So Rammstein is calling this out and basically telling people to be better and less racist and exclusionary. I know a lot of non Germans always love to joke around and be like HURR DURR ANGRY GERMANS, MUST BE NAZI, but no, Rammstein is actually lib left as fudge. They grew up under the GDR (communist), and while not as authoritarian, they're actually quite left wing politically. While they don't discuss politics often, often times their songs do cover topics like being anti war, addiction to oil, tolerance and openness to whatever sexuality you have, and in recent years anti fascism. 

Anyway, being a huge fan of the band, I just wanted to discuss this video, since it does intersect with this blog. Not an orthodox post, but yeah. Fun nevertheless.

Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Discussing the PA senate race and who I support

 So, probably one of the most popular senate races in the country is happening in my own state. And I feel like I should talk about it, since that's coming up soon. I'll be focusing on the democratic side since that's the side I'm registered as and identify more closely as, but I will be discussing both. This is the seat that Pat Toomey is retiring from, Toomey able to hold onto it because 2010 and 2016 were rather red years. Then you have Bob Casey's seat, who seems to hold onto the other one because his election years seem to occur in more blue years like 2012 and 2018. Amazing how in a purple state like PA that one seat keeps going red and the other blue simply because of the timing of their reelection. 

Anyway, based on that alone I don't have much faith in the democrats winning the seat given 2022 is shaping up to be very red, but at the same time, this senate election does not look typical. The republicans are running whackjobs and as of right now progressives look like they're dominating the democratic primary. So this might actually swing blue. Anyway, to discuss the varying sides.

Republican primary

The republican side looks rather crowded with around 7 candidates, but 2 seem to really be competitive. David McCormick is the leading option, with an average of 22% of the vote. He seems to be a very corporate candidate looking at his record, and seems to represent the old guard of the republican party. He condemned the January 6th attacks, he's pro globalism, and he even supports LGBT rights. He seems to be a fairly liberal republican. 

But he has competition, mostly from Dr. Oz, you know, THAT Dr. Oz. Dr. Oz is at 19% of the vote, and well within the margin of error to win. He's endorsed by Trump, but he's also fairly liberal at times. Honestly, this guy is all over the place looking at wiki. He's pro life, but also pro LGBT. He's against cannibis legalization. He seems to be one of those hydroxychloroquine whackjobs on COVID. Strangely enough he supports universal healthcare in the form of an insurance mandate (same as many moderate democrats). And yeah. He's kind of weird. Anyway, i'm just gonna say I wouldn't take him seriously as he seems to be running for senate based on his celebrity status and trying to pull a Trump. But a lot of republicans seem to like him.

I won't go too far into detail on the other candidates as I'm not really closely paying attention to the republican primary and have no dog in that fight, but there are 5 others running. Kathy Barnette is at 11% in the polls, Jeff Bartos is at 10%, Carla Sands is at 9%, George Bochetto is at 3%, and Sean Gale is at 2%. Let's face it, it's probably Oz or McCormick. 

Democratic Primary

The democratic primary is a bit less crowded, with 3 major candidates running according to Ballotpedia. I watched a debate the other night with those three, and it was pretty good. There are a couple more minor candidates running, but the race seems to primarily be of the three.

John Fetterman is the frontrunner, with 37% of the vote. Former Mayor of Braddock, and currently Lieutenant Governor, Fetterman has been overlooked in the past, and in 2016 was deemed "too far left", but now with more experience under his belt he's being taken seriously. And that's good. I like him. He represents a kind of working class progressive brand of politics long forgotten by the democratic party. He supports a $15 minimum wage, medicare for all, and generally holds progressive positions. He is being attacked for a 2013 incident involving pointing a shotgun at a black jogger. Apparently he heard gunshots and essentially being mayor and head of law enforcement at the time decided to apprehend him on the basis that he was a suspect in a potential shooting. he turned out to be wrong, and now the BLM crowd is claiming he was wrong for it, because obvious that sort of thing is touchy. it should be noted even the suspect defends Fetterman for his actions, but it doesn't stop the black community along with rival Malcolm Kenyatta from criticizing him for it.

Conor Lamb is the runner up with 14% of the vote as of now. Lamb is a more establishment politician, more in the mold of Joe Biden. He seems to be a "democrat" through and through and is generally more moderate. While I have seen him make a couple good points in the debate (since progressives tend to overextend their leftism at times, and moderates sometimes pull back on those reins and talk logistics and practicality), I generally am not a fan of his, as he's going to be far more moderate overall. He's a very intelligent and accomplished person for his age, but honestly,he's not in my wing of the democratic party.

Malcolm Kenyatta is an African American from Philly, who grew up in a relatively poor household. He has 6% of the vote as of now. He's also very young, and rather educated and accomplished. Honestly, I like him roughly as much as Fetterman based on the debate. On healthcare, he always mentioned that his mom died rationing her insulin, and that he supports healthcare for all. Honestly, he is a good candidate. too.

There are more minor candidates, but they aren't really getting much recognition at all. Alex Khalil has 2% of the vote and seems to be for medicare for all too. Looking at her other policies she seems to be a standard fare progressive democrat, supporting things like $15 minimum wage, paid family leave, a jobs program, worker's rights, etc.She seems to go a bit further than Fetterman or Kenyatta at times on some issues and I actually really like her despite her lack of visibility or support.

Then there's Kevin Baumlin with 5% of the vote. He's another standard fare democrat who doesn't seem to mention medicare for all but supports other staples.

So who do I support?

Honestly, the field seems largely....redundant to me. Fetterman and Kenyatta seem to have identical platforms. And Fetterman has far more support. So unless you're really gonna make a big deal over his shotgun incident, I don't see a reason not to support Fetterman. Conor Lamb is a bit underwhelming, being the solid establishment option. I'm gonna be honest. I'm really impressed with Khalil, she actually seems to be the one candidate who seems to be more progressive than Fetterman. She supports paid family leave, a job guarantee, and while those sorts of things aren't necessarily my big thing, I kind of have to give points for effort here. Baumlin just seems meh.

Based on policy positions alone, I'd probably rank them as follows

1) Khalil

2) Fetterman/Kenyatta (tie)

4) Lamb

5) Baumlin

As for who I'll support....honestly....I gotta go with Fetterman. Khalil's additional progressive positions are not something I'm willing to fall on my sword on like I will sometimes do in these elections. While often times certain progressive positions will cause me to go against the grain and be like "i'm gonna support this candidate with 2% of the vote because they support UBI or something"....no one here is supporting UBI. Heck, most candidates are supporting almost the same platform. Khalil is marginally more progressive but honestly, I'm not gonna vote my principles over a JOBS PROGRAM. Especially after what I posted yesterday. So...honestly, Fetterman is acceptable, and I'd like to see him win.

Honestly, a huge issue I have in general is that there's very little difference between the candidates. So you get a 2020 effect where it's like you get a crop of candidates who all say similar things with only a few outliers. Except here it's all progressives with one slightly more progressive and the moderates just crapping the bed in general.

Honestly, I'm just gonna support Fetterman. I'd rather ensure that he DOES in fact win and is the nominee.

Monday, April 25, 2022

Debunking "16 Reasons Matt Yglesias is Wong about the Job Guarantee vs Basic Income"

 So...I ended up getting in an argument with a Bernie bro about Yang/UBI, and while much of the discussion came down to the same drivel I've rebutted again and again on this sub, one source used was a post attacking Matt Yglesias for previous posts criticizing the idea of a jobs guarantee and seeing it as potentially being coercive and abusive. His posts were blurbs, but apparently one author Pavlina Tcherneva basically took them seriously and wrote a largely caustic article attacking UBI and advocating for a jobs guarantee. And since these were used against me in debate, I felt like it would be good to write an article about it since I'm generally speaking anti JG and pro UBI. A lot of her post was ideological circlejerking, but in standard fashion, so will mine be. After all, I have an ideological dog in this fight too. 

Slate’s Matt Yglesias is out with another caricature of post on the Job Guarantee (JG) and, guess what? He still doesn’t like what he sees. He’s all for guaranteeing income to people who can’t find jobs, but he’s opposed to making receipt of that money “conditional on performing make-work labor for the government.”

 Yeah as you can tell she starts out snarky and sarcastic. never mind Yglesias was pretty light in criticizing the topic, with one whole post simply being acknowledging that MMT orthodoxy seems hardcore on the JG proposal, and the other simply suggesting the UBI is a much more direct approach to ending poverty, and is less open to abuse (for example Yglesias mentioned a "job guarantee" in fighting dangerous California wildfires). As someone who identifies as an indepentarian, and supports the right to say no, not just to any job, but all jobs, I feel like the UBI is the superior approach to solving poverty.

As one of the leading proponents of the JG, let me say this for the nth time: THE JOB GUARANTEE IS NOT ‘MAKE-WORK.’ This is not a reaction to Yglesias but a core principle of the earliest literature on the Job Guarantee (e.g., here, here and here). There is no way that anyone familiar with even a sliver of the vast collection of books, articles, essays, working papers, policy briefs and blog posts on the JG could, in good faith, continue to claim that the JG is “make-work.”

 I mean to some extent it is. While job guarantees CAN do useful things, like infrastructure projects, after a while, you're just making up things for people to do because ultimately you believe that people should have to suffer for their existence. JG proponents can't stand to think about a world in which we aren't expected to toil all day every day, and as such they're literally creating work out of thin air for people to do. Sometimes this can be useful work. I mean, a reason I TOLERATED Bernie's green new deal previously is I understand for the next decade his idea would be useful. But after that, it would quickly become pork.

So much of our economy, from the tax preparation services, to the healthcare insurance industry, is just make work. But we can't get rid of that work because "but but, we would put people out of the job." preserving jobs is a key proponent of our economic policy, with a lot of government agencies in particular being bloated because cuts would put people out of the job. To make an argument leftists would be sympathetic toward, think defense contractors and the military industrial complex. Part of the reason we make so many weapons isn't because we need them, but because we have given people jobs doing so, and getting rid of such jobs would be unpopular. In a sense, our near $800 billion budget is a jobs program. And we could argue that those arms are useful to. They protect us from Russia and China, and Ukraine is doing a good job fighting off the Ruskies with our surplus military weapons. But the question is, should we be employing people simply in making arms we don't necessarily need? A leftist would probably say no. Well, congratulations. Now you understand the logic against job guarantees. Jobs in the government can provide useful things. But the real question is, do those things necessarily have to be done? In the short term, a JG would do useful things. In the long term, it would not. It would lead to bloat just like the military industrial complex. Just like the medical insurance industry and all of those administrative jobs that wouldn't need to exist under single payer. Just like the tax industry. We could have the government file taxes for us and not have to deal with the nonsense we all just went through in the past month. But then someone would be out of work, and that's bad. The logic behind preserving jobs leads to all kinds of bone headed decisions like this.

And now to get into her 16 reasons why she thinks a JG is better.

1. Yglesias may not realize it, but all serious academic support for BIG is based on the idea that many people will quit working (this is considered desirable in order to eliminate bad jobs and ultimately ‘decommodify’ labor; e.g. here and here ). So the goal is to reduce the supply of labor and reduce production.

Oh noes, the horror. You see, this is what most UBI vs JG arguments come down to. Pure ideological disagreements. With JG proponents basically being jobists. And this is basically why this whole post sounds like a circlejerk.

I'm going to be honest, i wouldn't agree with every aspect of the premise proposed, but I would agree with the gist of it. I mean, for reference, I wouldn't say I'm necessarily pro reducing production. I mean we could debate the exact tradeoff between reducing work time and productivity, and I would say I'm GENERALLY adverse to our current "work to increase GDP at all costs" mindset that we currently have. But I'm not explicitly ANTI production. I'm kind of neutral toward it.

But I would generally say that I am for freeing people from labor, which seems to be what her sources cited seem to indicate. Both of the sources she cited link to Phillippe Van Parijs related work, and Van Parijs is a "real libertarian" who is a close ideological cousin to my own outlook on the world. But yeah. I'm for people quitting their jobs. I'm for freeing people from labor. And generally speaking, JG advocates support continuing a system of wage slavery as I see it, which is why I see the JG as so disagreeable. We have a perfect excuse and reason to reduce how much we work, and JG proponents just want to keep that cycle of maximizing work and GDP growth at all costs going.

As I said, I'm not really ANTI work to the extent that I want to rob people of the ability to work if they want it. I simply support freedom to choose. And I do expect most people to choose to work in some capacity and for work reductions to, at first, be minimal. And that's kind of the thing. I'm actually fairly "moderate" in my anti work mentality. I see a lot of benefits of work and modern society. I just believe we need a sense of balance, and moderation, and the best way to move in that direction is to make work more voluntary so we can work less. From there, I suggest we let the market decide and go from there. If people choose to continue to work, that's fine, but if not, then I don't think we should force them.

2. JG provides a “good job” alternative to people who work in “bad jobs”. When private employers want them back, they have to provide at least the same or better living wage-benefit package and work conditions offered in the JG. JG sets the labor standard.

Who determines what jobs are good? Karl Widerquist often would say something like "don't tell oppressed or disadvantaged people what jobs are good for them, let them decide for themselves". Yes, a JG can set some minimum standard. but if those jobs suck, then you're not making people better off. UBI gives people the ability to sit on the couch and NOT work, while still giving plenty of incentive TO work. UBI would provide a much stronger assurance against bad jobs, forcing employers to compete with people staying home. So they would need to provide better pay and working conditions. A JG does this somewhat, but while still preserving wage slavery. Which means its effects are more limited and the idea feels dystopian to me.

3. Under BIG, production drops, consumption rises, and so do prices. Suddenly, the value of the BIG grant has been eroded. Great success: the poor are still poor.

We currently have a $72k GDP per capita. If we saw a roughly 1/8 reduction in production, we would have a $63k GDP per capita. While a recession would happen, and you would see some inflation, no one would be poor. And if we implemented the UBI slowly, the brunt of those impacts would be minimized as growth that happens anyway would offset it. This is kind of strawmanny. 

Like, I don't actually think we should see much of a reduction in work effort, or much of an increase in consumption. It would still happen, but the effects, if UBI is done properly, would be mild. It would be FAR less severe than the 2020 COVID recession, in the worst case scenario, and I could see it not being an issue at all if it were done slowly enough.

4. Under JG, employment rises, socially useful production rises, and (as we have argued many times) some of that production is dedicated to the benefit of the poor, providing goods and services at the local level that the private sector has not provided, and thus it absorbs part of the wage. In other words, both supply and demand rise.

Yes, employment rises, socially useful production CAN rise (not saying it WILL but it CAN) and while it might lead to more wealth, again, maybe higher GDP isn't necessarily what we need? Again, we have $72k GDP per capita. We're plenty rich in America. I would argue we don't really NEED more GDP growth and more GDP growth wouldn't get us out of poverty. Because poverty is in essence a distribution issue and UBI would redistribute income/wealth from the top to the bottom to ensure our needs are bet. 

Yes, if your primary concern is more growth, a JG is better. I'm arguing maybe growth isn't the end all be all of life. Maybe we should have more work life balance. Maybe we should have a better distribution of goods and services. Maybe these are more important than just endlessly grinding for higher numbers on paper.

5. Coupled with its countercyclical mechanism, JG is an inflation stabilizer (not an inflation generator, like BIG). We’ve modeled this many times (see here, here, here). Inflation from other sources is, of course, possible (runaway bank lending, speculation, oil shocks etc.—all are separate issues.)

6. BIG is not countercyclical. It’s universal, unconditional, but does not fluctuate with the business cycle. JG is a direct response to recessions and expansions.

 I mean, basically what you're more or less saying is this. You make more jobs during recessions to stabilize the economy, and make less during good times. That's fine if you're Keynesian, you know, government steps in during bad times, and backs off during good times. But honestly? A UBI would stabilize the economy in bad times too as people would still have that to rely on without the government lifting a finger. Remember covid and how millions were out of work and how the government barely did anything to help anyone because republicans were in charge? Remember the left sputtering on arguing for a temporary UBI because we were in a situation where we COULDN'T employ people because contagious diseases? UBI would've been there for people from day 1 during COVID. It would've stabilized the economy in a way that a JG model could not, and it rapidly would've stepped in to be an important buffer against poverty.

 And during times like these, if we had a UBI, all we would really need to do is reduce the number of jobs available by raising interest rates via the federal reserve. While production and GDP would admittedly be lower than under the JG, maybe ever growing levels of GDP aren't really central to peoples' well being anyway any more. I'd argue GDP's biggest relevance is in waging war. It's nice to have a high GDP because that means you can field a high military budget. That means you can stay ahead of Russia and China. But beyond that, I think beyond a certain point, higher levels of GDP are meaningless. What good is $72k GDP when people are paying so much for say, housing? Or healthcare? Do we exist for the economy, or does the economy exist for us? Again, I support human centered capitalism. The economy exists for us. We're not slaves to it. But JG and the jobist mentality behind it seeks to make us slaves to the economy, rather than the economy work for us.

7. There is no mechanism by which BIG can ensure full employment over the short or long run. Only the JG can.

Again, maybe I don't value full employment over all else. I support ending poverty, but also freeing people of wage slavery. Full employment is a policy choice and it's the stark ideological divide I have with the traditional labor centric left.


8. In short, BIG doesn’t deal with price (or currency) stability, useful output, or any of the negative externalities from unemployment.

I mean not having money is an externality from unemployment. Beyond that, UBI isn't intended to deal with price or currency stability. That's the fed's job. Raise interest rates when needed to keep inflation in check, lower them to encourage more job creation to minimize unemployment. And while UBI would act as a permanent stimulus of sorts, it doesn't really change the core idea. It just changes what the ideal interest rates actually are. 

What a JG does on the other hand is when jobs disappear, a JG provides more jobs to compensate. It gives people an income by putting them to work, and that spurs on economic development directly as goods and services are being made, and people have money to spend. UBI tends to give people money with less work getting done, leading to somewhat lower GDP, but if the difference is say, $63k per capita vs $72k, is that really such a huge deal? 

Like that's what it ultimately comes down to. Would you prefer to keep maximizing GDP while forcing people into wage slavery, or have somewhat less GDP but have people be freer and more able to participate as they want? I'd rather have $63k with a more just economy under UBI than $72k with an economy under wage slavery.

Because I know by 2030 given growth happens either way, we'll be up to $72k GDP then. But then the JG proponent would say, we could have, say, $84k or something. Sure. We could. But again, is it worth it?

The point is, I don't want to keep going like we are and in 100 years have a $300k GDP (remember how I did those projections?) and still be enslaved to working all the time when we could have say, $260k GDP and be free to say no. 

Higher numbers isn't everything. Leisure and freedom have their own inherent worth, and the JG proponent doesn't understand this.

9. As Amartya Sen taught us, poverty is not just a function of lack of adequate income. Providing income alone does not eliminate poverty.

Now she's starting to sound like Joe Biden. "A job isn't just about a paycheck, it's about dignity."

Uh, poverty is about a lack of paycheck. Poverty is by definition solved by giving people money. You can claim there's some moral worth of a job, but honestly, I say we let people decide that. Not moral do gooders telling me what's best for me without even asking me.

10. The poor and the unemployed want to work (here, here). And as my work on Argentina showed (9m14s), receiving income is the fifth reason why the poor wanted to work! Why do BIG advocates presume to know what’s better for the poor than the poor themselves? BIG does little for those who want to work.

Oh give me a break. The obnoxious moralizing on this one. Counter question, why do JG advocates presume to speak for me and claim I WANT to work? I DONT want to work, honestly. And I dont think a lot of people actually do. Here's the thing. Regardless of whatever work this lady has done on the subject, a big thing we like to ignore in society is that WORKING ISN'T A CHOICE. I mean, it is, but it isn't. We have a system where you can say no, but no one does, because the consequences are poverty and homelessness. And what are the results of that? Well, just think about your last job interview. How much did you BS your prospective employer trying to act enthusiastic about how you wanted to work. Do you really feel passionate about shoes where you want to work in footlocker? Does the idea of flipping burgers for 40 hours a week make you happy and feel a sense of pride? Some work does have some mental health benefits. I don't doubt that. But for a lot of people, a lot of people saying they want to work is done under duress. They have to say that. Because if they won't they won't get the job. They wont get that income. So, a lot of people have to pretend it's not about the income....when yeah, it's about the income. If it wasn't about the income people would continue doing it without being paid. And there are some things people do for free. And you know what? They can choose to do those things even if they get a UBI. UBI would allow people to do what they WANT to do. because their livelihood isn't tied to a job. A JG still ties your livelihood to that job, and as such will continue to be coercive.

Also, i find it funny she cites her own work on freaking JACOBIN of all places. Yeah, you're really objective, lady /s. This is just leftist circlejerking.

11. There is almost a ‘neoclassical market equilibrating assumption’ behind most BIG analysis that says: “as long as people have cash, the market will magically provide the goods for them, allow them to acquire assets, provide them with the freedom to do what they please, etc. etc.” If the market hasn’t solved these problems now, why would it do so just because people get cash? All structures that marginalize, reduce opportunities, and discriminate remain. JG is not a panacea for all these problems, but it deals with one crucial and systemic aspect of marginalization – the absence of guaranteed decent work.

Because this is my own ideological assumption, but in my own analysis, the root evil of capitalism IS wage slavery. Cash would not only compensate people for the market's inadequacies, but give them power to bargain in the market in ways that don't exist now. The problem is the market does coerce people to work, while simultaenously not giving them enough cash to live on. UBI would clearly solve this.

12. Amartya Sen also taught us that what matters is not just freedom, but substantive freedom. That is, policy has to 1) recognize what individuals themselves want and value; 2) it must provide these opportunities; and 3) it must remove obstacles from taking advantage of these opportunities.

13. The JG does precisely that: recognizes many people want paid work, provides the job opportunity, and removes obstacles from taking the opportunity by targeting the jobs to the communities, and providing the very services that one might need in order to take care of these opportunities (education, transportation, care etc., etc.).

Cool, freedom to, not just freedom from, right? Well, what if I desire freedom FROM work? What if I reject this whole rat race altogether? Sure, some people desire freedom to work. But honestly, I wouldn't stop them, and if anything removing the people who dont wanna be there from the market would allow the people who do want to be there to find jobs more easily.

Also, this might be unpopular with JG proponents, but I dont believe people should be guaranteed a JOB. The logistics of doing so is difficult as you gotta match the job with the people in the locations they live, and you also gotta ensure that the job is suitable to the person, etc. And for all we know, there might not be any useful job that they would want to do. Honestly, I support people looking for work that they want, and if they find it they find it, and if they don't they don't. UBI would likely give them a cushion that would allow them more choice and flexibility in the market, allowing them to say, move more easily. Or maybe pursue alternative careers not necessarily available in a jobist paradigm. Wanna start that youtube channel? Or that art project? But you won't be able to support yourself on it alone? UBI would HELP you. 

You might argue, well, if those jobs arent "useful" to society, why do them? We need meat packers and freight unloaders and burger flippers. Who cares about your vanity art project? I mean, sure, but at that point let's face it that you wanna coerce people into slavery while telling people they want it all along. If you really want that to get done, you can PAY people for it. Thats kind of a weird thing this author argues. People wouldnt work, but people WANT to work. It's a double edged argument where their early points about lower productivity are offset by their later points about lack of opportunity. And it's laced with this benevolent paternalism rooted in the protestant work ethic of "we have to force these people to work for their own good."

If people dont want to work, and productivity lowers, pay your darned employees better and give them better working conditions. If they do want to work and cant find it, let them find their way doing art projects or whatever. if some rich fricker can sell monkey pictures for tens of thousands of dollars, why can't poor people make their own art and sell it? 

Like really, this moralizing this person does is just so obnoxious to me.

14. BIG may lull the recipients into a false sense of security. Once the BIG grant proves inadequate to liberate the poor from their poverty, and the poor decide to search for better paying jobs and opportunities, they will not be there. Just like they aren’t now. As research has shown the mark of unemployment is devastating and unemployment breeds unemployability.

Who is to say that it would be inadequate to liberate the poor from poverty? Kinda loaded when their definition of poverty a la point 9 sounds like having a job is part of escaping poverty?

Anyway, as someone who exists in this kind of environment, as a college grad who never found a job post college because poor opportunities? Yeah, I'm screwed. And I don't really want a JG to "fix" my life. I don't want some government job building roads in the hot sun or freezing cold winter. I want a UBI so I can live comfortably without being forced to do a job I don't actually want to do. And maybe I would rather write posts about UBI all day than actually do a make work job, because my sense of purpose is related to my own UBI advocacy. 

Like really. people can make their own jobs in this new economy. Start a YT channel, make a blog, do art, whatever. Come up with the next brilliant idea. How many books have been written by people who had the luxury to not be forced to join the working class? How much human potential is suppressed because our einsteins are stuck asking if we want fries with that? 

Like...okay, unemployment breeds unemployability. Well...what if people dont truly desire employment? While a JG could give them a step into employment, if people don't really want it, then why force it? 

And let's ask another question. Maybe people who aren't constantly employed are unemployable because employers want nice loyal worker bees who will put up with their abuse? That seems to be the mentality between not hiring workers like that. Because maybe they'll end up doing what I did and understand that work actually is an abusive and exploitative institution akin to slavery? Employers don't want smart people to think for themselves. They want submissive people who will say "yes sir/maam" and when told to jump, will ask "how high" rather than saying "you know what? I'm not gonna jump for you at all." 

If UBI would reduce the number of people working voluntarily, then I say let those people leave. They often times don't WANT to be there. And you know what? Employers can pay people to make it worth their while to do those jobs. If you can walk off the job at any time, employers would have an incentive to work with their employees, meet them half way, give them good working conditions and wages. Because they don't HAVE to be there. They WANT to be there.

Like, again, everything about this person's perspective assumes jobs are good, and she moralizes and lectures and condescends to us about poor us who dont have jobs. Uh...maybe at the end of the day jobs are hell, and people like me are the only ones honest enough to admit it? Someone has to. because we have such a strong culture around work and not ever admitting that maybe we dont want to do these things, that it takes someone like me to break that illusion. 

15. Again, many BIG bloggers are not familiar with even the basic BIG literature. There is such a thing called ‘participation income’ and ‘civic minimum’ in serious scholarly work (Atkison 1995 and White 2003, respectively)—an idea that society is built on the principle of reciprocation. Society provides you with a basic income; you reciprocate by participating in socially-productive activities. This is exactly what the JG does. No matter what Yglesias says, it is not based on the coercion principle of workfare, but rather on the principle of participation.

Okay, this person can kindly screw off at this point. The obnoxious moralizing was bad enough but is she seriously calling us ignorant? Anyone who surfs r/basicincome for more than a week would know we're constantly INUNDATED with weird ideas like this. Like "what if we had a UBI, but we made people do a bare minimum work to claim it?" Then it's not a UBI, because it's not universal, and it's conditional.

The fact is, UBI proponents don't like these ideas, because we're not jobists. This person is OBSESSED with forcing people to work and do labor and making it MANDATORY. I'm familiar with reciprocity. I've debated social democrats and know many of them against it because ERMAHGERD PEOPLE MIGHT CHOOSE NOT TO WORK. Let them. Again, I'm more in the Van Parijs/Widerquist vein of people shouldn't be forced to do it. And you could argue, it's not a principle of coercion based on workfare, but rather the principle of participation, but this is just a useless word salad. It's like the south claiming the civil war was about states rights. States rights to what? Same thing here. Principle to participate in...what?

Basicallythey're trying to force people to work. They're framing it differently, but let's face it. Their big thing in this whole thing is at the end of the day, they think forcing people to work is a good thing. That's what it comes down to. Sothey're basically lecturing us about how we can make people work. 

WE DON'T WANT TO DO THAT. THAT'S WHAT SEPARATES US FROM THEM.

Like, if we agreed maximizing employment was a good thing, we should maximize GDP and have everyone working 40 hours as a moral requirement for their existence, yeah, your JG ideas are pretty based. But we don't think that. On principle. Rather than work making us free (cough), we want to be free of work.

16. I find it ironic that we have to debate each other. BIG and JG stand on much the same principles. Let policy provide an opportunity to all to perform socially useful activities on the ‘participation principle’ through the JG, while supporting those who cannot (the young, retired, disabled, with onerous care burden) and we have a stronger, more stable economy that creates socially useful activities that serve the public purpose.

Okay. I'm going to be kind of double handed with this one.

On the one hand, I KIND of agree. I mean, given the system we have now, both JG and UBI people have ideas about guaranteed SOMETHING. Some means of subsistence guaranteed. As opposed to our free market mentality of "oh, we're gonna force you to work, but we're not gonna guarantee that you can find work, or that work pays well"....I mean, we both want to find ways to make this economy just. Your idea is one of giving people guaranteed employment at a reasonable minimum wage to ensure everyone has some minimum standard of employment, and mine is giving people money, regardless of employment status, to ensure peoples' needs are met without work. 

This, in my opinion, the issue I wish we WOULD debate centrally in society. They can be one party touting the dignity of work and a good old fashioned job, and mine is the party of well jobs aren't the answer and we need to decouple work and income.

But let's be honest, beyond that, this person can screw off with the condescension. Don't tell me what my ideas SHOULD be. I really dislike that this person is trying to push a UBI position into their stupid "participation income" idea and then say "but we both want the same thing." NO WE DONT. I literally view a JG as slavery. I view capitalism as it exists as slavery. I am opposed to wage slavery. I seek to free people from the tyrannies of work, while this person seeks to continue that enslavement under a new paradigm. it's like the big casino being replaced with the big cooperative in Widerquist's big casino essay.

The fact is, you don't get to tell me what is good for me. I want to be able to pick whatever job i want, or no job at all. I dont wanna be forced to state some crappy state job, as the alternative to some crappy free market job. 

Here's a better idea. Instead of participation income, why don't THEY support a "universal wage". This is a wage we give to everyone unconditionally, and we let people decide how and whether they want to contribute in the first place. Oh....they don't like that? They think im strawmanning their ideas and making a mockery of them? Well, welcome to the club. 

We don't want the same thing. And while I respect the proponents of JG for proposing SOME ideas that make us better off as a society (there's a reason I would've supported Bernie in 2020 despite my misgivings), let's be honest, we're not ideologically the same, we shouldn't pretend to be, and our ideas are diametrically opposed on an ideological level.

Yes, sending a check to people is not as “messy,” but let’s stop pretending that it’s a panacea for the fundamental problem of economic insecurity.

 But it is. Let's stop pretending your moralizing doesn't come with a whopping side of "I want to coerce people to work via propertylessness". 

Again, I kind of have a begrudging respect for JG people. I think compared to the status quo, they're at least thinking about how to improve capitalism and peoples' lives. But the moralizing here and assumptions about how jobs are good and we should all be forced to do them are obnoxious, and this whole article has been offputting. Like, it's just dripping with condescension and trying to tell us what's good for us without letting us decide what's good for us. If we want to work, we'll try to find a job. We don't need one guaranteed to us, and then be forced to do it. I'd rather have a society where I'm allowed to live as I want, than one where I'm forced to live according to someone else telling me what's good for me. JG proponents do that way too much and it's annoying. They remind me of the protestant work ethic people who are like "well, we know you don't want to work, but we're going to force you for your own good." I HATE that level of benevolent paternalism. it feels like gaslighting in way. Like I'm being told what's good for me and I'm being pressured to go along with it than being allowed to decide for myself.

Again, I don't wish to deny anyone the opportunity to work if they want it. There's a lot of socially useful work out there to be done. And I do believe most people would like to participate in such work to some degree. But I say we need to let THEM decide that. Rather than just forcing people to take crappy government jobs they hate for their own good. 

I feel like we live in a society that's very mentally ill. We all pretend like we all like to work and everything is fine, but I think at the end of the day many people don't actually like working but can't admit it for fear of social disapproval or sanctions against their means of making a living as they do. So they do this fake thing of pretending to like work, while insisting everyone has to work, because if they don't, they get angry and bitter and the real them comes out: "why do I have to work when they don't?" So, we all kind of hide behind these facades of pretending to like working when we hate it, while simultaneously insisting that we all have to work, because it isn't unfair to us and our suffering if we don't.

But that kind of mentality is exactly how we end up with the insanity of pushing for full employment, and job guarantees and blah blah blah. It really is an authoritarian mindset based on a sense of self loathing and bitterness of the idea of someone else being able to not work. 

I want a system where you CAN choose not to work? And if you legitimately choose to, go for it. But if you don't that's okay too. 

I mean I actually see a parallel between people who choose to be parents and childfree people. having a kid IS a choice. But a lot of parents will keep telling themselves it's great and the best thing in the world despite being miserable. So they keep trying to force their childfree peers to have kids in this weird "join in on the misery" mindset. And when they dont want to, they're often told they're selfish and make themselves our to be martyrs. I see it as this self loathing and hatred of how one's life is, turned into this weird toxic positivity because they can't express their misery in socially acceptable ways. So they're like this is great, this is the best thing ever, join me, and then they hate and loathe those who are like "no thanks, we're good."

Jobism is a similar kind of disease in our society. And the fact is the bitter miserable people insist everyone has to work because it isn't fair to them if they don't. So they do this weird toxic positivity thing of "oh work is so good for you, dont you want to do this?" combined with this intense hatred and misery against anyone who would choose not to.

That's what's going on at the center of this person's mindset, and those who think like this. In reality they can't stand the idea that people would dare choose a different decision than them, so they want to make the system in a way that coerces us into the system without a choice.

Yeah, I'm just gonna call that out and reject it. 

Sunday, April 24, 2022

Discussing the French election and electoral system

 So, I've previously done this with the UK, and with Germany, but now, with the contentious French election in the spotlight, it seems like a good time to discuss the French election, and its electoral system. 

So the French electoral system has come under fire with this election, as the recent 2022 elections were seen as an election between two lesser evils. And when you really think of it, Le Pen vs Macron is a lot like Trump vs Biden. You have one very far right party facing off against a lukewarm centrist. And ultimately, the centrist won. 

Given Le Pen has extreme right views and was very anti NATO and even pro Putin in some ways, Macron winning again is good. But why does the French electoral system seem to suck much like the American one, with most voters groaning over supporting either option? Well, that's what I want to focus on.

So, the French electoral system actually isn't a mere two party system like the US. They have a two round electoral system in which they have an open "vote for whomever you want" first round, where the two top candidates move on to the next stage of the election. And then you have people choosing between the top two candidates. The first round actually had like a dozen different candidates all over the political spectrum, but of them, only around 3 of them were relevant. You had Emmanuel Macron, a centrist, who got 28% of the vote, Marine Le Pen was a far right nationalist, who got 23% of the vote, and Jean-Luc Melenchon with 22% of the vote. He was a Marxist. So you actually do have some decent representation on paper, compared to the US. You have a right wing option, a left wing option, and a centrist option. And while more niche candidates existed, they didn't get much support and were relatively uncompetitive. Still, given how American politics is currently captured by the republicans and democrats, both awful options, the french system seems slightly better on paper. I even recall they did have a socialist president (Hollande) not long ago, although they lost favor as they went a bit too far with stuff at times and the population and especially the billionaire class backlashed against them. 

Anyway, this time around, Macron got 28%, and Le Pen 23%. This means they went to the second round of the election. And there, Macron got 59% of the vote, and Le Pen 41%. So Macron won again. Yay...but also ugh. I get the dislike of the guy. But still, better than Le Pen, who would be the equivalent of us electing Marjorie Taylor Greene. Anyway, from my more foreign policy oriented approach right now, eh...Macron isn't bad. But, I get why he isnt that amazing either. He's basically a centrist neoliberal type. Honestly, I'm not really sold on any of the three big candidates. I mean, I'm not big on Marxism at this point, but neoliberalism sucks too. And the far right is just...no. Honestly, I really just feel like the current political spectrum isn't very satisfying. Like, my views go beyond mere capitalism vs socialism, or liberalism vs conservatism or socialism. I mean, once you're Yang pilled like me, there's just no going back. 

Speaking of which, how do I feel about this electoral system? It's okay, but let's face it, it's kinda crappy. I mean, the top 2 options get to the next round FPTP style? Really? And then you have to choose between them? I could see the first round being gamed in a lesser evil way to only allow three realistic options. Which is better than 2 like in the US, but really. The top guy is gonna be the top guy, and the people are gonna lesser evil vote between options 2 and 3 to get in that other slot while other candidates might get ignored. LLike I might have to vote for the Marxist in this election to knock le pen out, rather than voting for say, a forwardist type option. 

I don't know, I just feel that ranked choice voting is a better system. Where I rank my options and as they get eliminated my vote is transferred to my viable back up options until someone wins. That seems better than this. So, while this is slightly better than the American system, it still leaves a lot to be desired. Anyway, how does this compare to UK and Germany? Well, if I recall Germany had 6 viable parties so I considered that better. The UK had 2 main ones, with a bunch of smaller ones, but their overton window was significantly left of ours, with Johnson being like an American centrist by comparison, and the Labor party reminding me of American leftists like the greens. So, it's an okay system, but there could be better. 

Saturday, April 23, 2022

Discussing Thomas Frank's "Listen Liberal" and the problems with the left

 So, I recently finished the book "Listen Liberal" by Thomas Frank and felt like talking about it. Overall, the book was good. It was written during the 2016 election cycle and essentially was a discussion about how the democratic party hasn't been the party of the people since the 1960s. This aligns with my own theory about a party realignment beginning in 1968, and Robert Putnam's theory about collectivism declining in the 1960s, leading to an era of much more individualistic mindsets. 

Essentially, he's arguing that starting with the 1972 election cycle and from then on, the democrats turned their backs on organized labor and began to embrace the professional class. His theory makes a lot of sense, and while I will disagree with him in details, I largely agree with it. And this is why in both 2016 and 2020, progressive ideas have failed to take root in the democratic party. Because the old democratic party is long dead, and now the party answers to upper class technocrats rather than the working class. And these technocrats are basically right wingers. They have professional class attitudes about things like entrepreneurship, their place in society, income inequality, etc. And honestly? Given HRC's mindset in 2016, he's dead on the money. Frank talks about how the democrats, over the past generation, have presided over a period of increased income inequality and a decline of opportunity across the country, with most opportunities now being present in a handful of cities, with the rest of the country being screwed. The democrats tend to represent the winners of this economy. 

He talks about how the Clinton administration really solidified the neoliberal order in America, and how Bill Clinton was able to get away with things that the republicans could only dream of. Like declaring the era of "big government" over, and slashing welfare, and deregulating wall street, and attempting to privatize social security (he failed on this one). He talks about how Obama had the perfect opportunity to reclaim the democrats for the left but instead surrounded himself with 'experts" who were lenient on wall street, and how he could have advocated for single payer or a public option but didn't. And how he did the bare minimum to actually fix the country after the recession, with many people feeling the effects, long after.

In a lot of ways, this book spoke to me, because he wrote it around the time I started this blog, and I live in one of the more "screwed" areas of the country economically. And I know Obama did the bare minimum to solve problems, and how he left a legacy that left a lot to be desired. my calls for UBI, universal healthcare, and free college/student debt forgiveness came out of my own frustrations with the economy. Ideas that the democratic party have repeatedly rejected since then.

Still, while I agree with Frank's main thesis, there are a lot of details I don't agree on. For example, I have slight differences in my view on, for example, McGovern's 1972 run. He views McGovern as the first of the technocrats. A democrat who turned his backs on organized labor in favor of the wealthy professional class. But...I have a slightly different outlook on the 1968-1980 period. In mean, to give a brief timeline:

In 1968, the democratic party fractured. For a long time, potentially since as early as 1948, the democratic part has had to balance the priorities of two major factions. Conservative southern democrats, and progressives. Conservative democrats were democrats who were on board with the new deal, but whose views on say, racism, were a bit regressive to put it lightly. In 1968, the democrats lost these guys due to Johnson's backing of civil rights. Johnson himself refused to run for reelection in 1968, I think mainly due to health issues, and this led to a scenario in which the democratic establishment chose Humphrey as a nominee. And this alienated the young progressive class. In 1972, that young progressive class chose McGovern. And the party establishment lost their crap over it and revolted against him. Now, to be fair, McGovern DID suck in some ways, but organized labor turned against him for not representing their specific concerns (an issue I tend to have with that branch of the left, more on that later), and also because the establishment didn't see him as part of the club. And then in 1976 they ran Carter who was more establishment friendly, but after that the democrats just...lost it. And THEN they started angling to be more right wing in the 80s, with them having the massive centrist takeover in the 90s with Bill Clinton.

That's kind of where I have a falling out with Frank. Frank's politics are the politics of dinosaurs to some extent, and he makes sweeping generalizations about some people and policies that I just don't agree with. He's stuck in the New Deal era, with his obsession with jobs and organized labor, and to some extent, while I believe he means well, he comes off as a bit of a luddite to me. He tends to rip anyone who doesn't represent "Ye Olde Left" of FDR as a technocrat, crapping on both McGovern, and a lot of people in Silicon Valley who I would see as friendly to my version of left wing politics. And he seems stuck in this era of bringing back the factory work, and solving every issue with union organizing and jobs programs. And I'm going to be honest. This is a bit of a turn off for me too. 

I get it to some extent. The 1932-1968 alignment was one of the best, for the people, in American history. We saw massive improvements to quality of life, and it is a shame that things have turned away from that. But in some ways, thing's were never perfect. And there was more change and evolution to be done. Between 1968 and 1972, I feel like the country was starting to evolve in a positive direction, before partisan politics and infighting caused that "babel" moment that then undid everything.

In 1969, Richard Nixon had a commission on poverty that studied the issue and found that no amount of traditional new deal esque approaches to it would solve the issue. They recommended, essentially, a UBI to solve the problems. You can read about this in "Poverty Amid Plenty: The American Paradox". This led to Nixon to support the family assistance plan in 1970. But, members of his own party were themselves obsessed with what it would do to work ethic, and the democrats didn't think it was progressive enough and kind of had a sense of pride of it undermining their accomplishment, so were against it too. But then McGovern championed the issue in 1972 and this just turned more people against it. The democrats refused to back it because once again, if you didn't do things ye olde way with organized labor, they weren't going to back it. And then Nixon turned on it, shifting right and claiming it would put half the country on welfare. So while there was a moment where it had support, everyone ended up turning against it, and then the country shifted right in general. 

My take, being a UBI supporter, is that the idea was in discussion, but neither party was committed to it, and often used it as a way to attack each other for their respective support of it. The left claiming it would undermine welfare and organized labor, and the right screaming about work ethic and lazy people on welfare. Sound familiar? And let's be honest, both were wrong. And I admit, Nixon was a scumbag, and McGovern was poor candidate who couldn't even defend it properly, so politically it just never had a chance, but yeah. But yeah, Frank's take was that McGovern was too technocratic and he turned his back on organized labor, while in reality, organized labor was a relatively corrupt part of the democratic establishment at the time looking to crush any ideas but theirs, and honestly, I dont have the hatred of the educated that he does. I mean, does he not understand the same people who supported McGovern in 1972 are the type of people who support the likes of Bernie today? Young, relatively educated voters. And honestly organized labor back then was the equivalent of all of those Hillary supporting insiders who in 2016 were calling us "Bernie Bros." But Frank doesn't seen to make that distinction. He just has this blind hatred toward the educated and seems to be glorifying blue collar jobs and "labor." I mean, I get it, the educated of 1972 would get high paying jobs and become quite economically conservative. But this generation of educated voters can't find jobs half the time, are members of the working class, and are crippled by student debt. He's right about Clinton overemphasizing education. And his overemphasis has led to an economy full of college grads, many of whom can't find decent jobs. And that's what sets the stage for my own politics.

You wanna know why I think the way I do? Because first of all, I was never really gung ho on the idea of working in the first place but seen it as a necessary evil for much of my life. But for two, I graduated into an economy with no jobs, shattering my illusions about how great these jobs are. The economy HAS changed. There are entire regions of the country where jobs don't really exist. We are going through the 4th industrial revolution just as say, Yang says. Factory jobs are gone. They're not coming back. Gig work is on the rise, minimum wage jobs abound. And all Frank is focused on is unions and making jobs pay good wages. As someone who has studied at least SOME econ in college, dude, here's the cold hard fact about employers. THEY DON'T WANT TO PAY LIVING WAGES, AND PROVIDE HEALTHCARE. THEY EXIST TO MAKE PROFITS, AND THE LESS THEY HAVE TO PAY FOR LABOR THE BETTER. That's the entire source of misery with our society. We live in this fantasy world in our head in which all jobs are good jobs, they just gotta pay you enough and give you healthcare, and then viola, problems solved. But I'm going to be honest. That kind of life just doesn't exist any more, and I would go so far to say it was never great. The idea of getting a factory job out of high school and doing the same thing for 40 years until I retire might sound nice in a romanticized fashion, but it just isn't realistic any more. And rather than trying to get that back, I feel like I see reality, and understand that you're never going to solve our problems this way. Because employers exist to extract the most labor for the least money. And then this guy craps on neolibs for talking about the new economy and all the tech people in silicon valley automating stuff and acting like they're the bad guys, which I can kind of understand, but isnt' that progress? This is why I see Frank as a bit of a Luddite. This kind of left he focuses on, while it means well, is anti progress. What happens when you spend time unionizing jobs, only for those jobs to disappear, and then be replaced by other non unionized jobs for less money? Congrats, all that effort is down the drain. And honestly, unionization just makes wage slavery slightly less crappy. it doesn't resolve the issue. It doesnt help people who can't find jobs.

I would go so far to say that what we're seeing is the hollowing out and slow death of the idea of a job for most Americans. And rather than it being something to be feared, it should be celebrated. This shift is the beginning of the science fiction era where people work less, and many don't have to work at all. We just don't know how to adapt to that, because our institutions are so focused on jobs, that we don't have alternative means to provide for people that don't involve people working 40 hours a week for a livintg wage and healthcare. And we need to get on that.

Honestly, we need to get out of this idea that the good old fashioned "job" is a concept worth saving. I'm all for paying people more and treating them better. I'm not even anti union. I just don't think they're the end all and believe that they can become corrupt. I definitely don't like their machine type nature within democratic party politics. Because they will fight to preserve jobs that no longer exist and fight against ideas like UBI and medicare for all because it undermines gains unions have fought for. Instead of doing the right thing for the people, unions want people to be like "you need us, aren't we great?" The second jobs disappear or we push for UBI all of the sudden that's bad because it threatens their power. It's all about power with them. 

Honestly. I say bring on the gig economy. I actually kind of view the concept of the gig economy as better for workers in some ways. It offers more flexibility and freedom to prospective workers, it just sucks in terms of wages and benefits. And if a UBI can partially decouple jobs and income, and universal healthcare can replace employer sponsored healthcare, well, those are GOOD things. We should be for that. Honestly, I'd rather live in a world with UBI and government sponsored healthcare and I could work part time doing gig work. I dont want a full time job with a traditional employer really. Because employers are slave drivers. Employers want respect. Employers want me to dress a certain way. Show up at a certain time. leave at a certain time. Look busy all the time because they own my time. I'd rather have a world where work is decoupled from income and my basic needs are met, and then I work for extra spending money. Maybe I become a dog walker *cough*. Or I do uber. Or Mturk. Or whatever. The fact is, the traditional job isn't that great, it's not worth saving, and the world has moved on.

In some ways, Frank's ideas, as well meaning as they are, are the stuff of dinosaurs. They represent the world 2 generations ago, and a lot has changed since. Jobs are less stable. They pay less. They have found ways to evade the new deal era labor laws. And workers have no power of their own. We need ways to help workers that aren't unions or regulation. Not that those things are bad, mind you. I'm not attacking positive change. But such institutions and means of improving life are clunky, slow, and don't solve the root problem of oppression in our economic system. So, while Frank is right about the neoliberal nature of the democratic party and how for the past 30+ years they just don't give a crap about you any more, he's wrong about the solutions.

Honestly, while I respect the intentions of the old left, I honestly think some aspects of their politics are best not brought back. The answer to today's problems isn't just unions and jobs programs. We need things that decouple income and benefits like healthcare from work. We need ways to solve the education crisis without people having to be in crippling student debt. And Frank just wants to bring back the politics of a long gone era, not actually create the politics of the modern era. I mean, I could even get behind certain capitalists like Elon Musk if they champion my ideas. But the left would rather hate billionaires just because, while throwing away bad solutions because punishing the rich and obsessing over "labor" is more important than raising peoples' quality of life. 

Still, regardless, the book "Listen Liberal" is good, and just puts another nail in the democratic party for me. It is not an institution for change, and progressive politics, whether it's ye olde left a la Bernie, or my own proposed new left a la Yang, are equally unwelcome within it. The democratic party as it is, is too technocratic, too rooted in support of the status quo, and fails to offer new and innovative solutions to our problems that work. They instead focus on watered down and overly complex solutions (that according to Frank are intended to sabotage and obfuscate any policy they implement). And the party needs change. I don't agree with his specific form of change, but I still think he means well and some aspects of his politics are still useful. I just wish he wouldn't crap on educated people and people who want new solutions to focus on the economy as is, rather than bringing back 80 year old solutions that never worked well anyway.

Friday, April 22, 2022

Is there no one else? Who will champion the progressive wing if not Bernie?

 So....Bernie is ancient, but he also is probably the one guy who can rally the progressive wing and mount a solid offensive against the centrist wing of the party. A lot of progressives are asking, if not Bernie, then who? Who can pick up the torch?

I'm gonna be honest, I feel like the left flank of the party is fracturing in this "post bernie" environment. You got some who are becoming more and more socialist. Some who are not quite socialist, but seeming to be just anti democratic party in general to a cynical degree (see: Jimmy Dore) and who might be willing to go over to the right after a while as they seem to agree with them on stuff like COVID. Some are not socialist at all and are loyal to the democrats and becoming more and more absorbed back into "Bidenworld" and the toxic democratic party politics. And then you got me, who is going in a more Yang direction.

That's kind of the thing about party alignments. You normally get a guy who can bring together all of these different factions, and after that guy leaves, the coalition automatically starts falling apart. After Lincoln, the republican party quickly went into decline and got taken over by corruption and machine politics. After FDR, the popularity of the new deal coalition waned under the Truman administration, and eventually fractured under Johnson. After Reagan, Bush Sr. was seen as far less popular, and then George W. Bush led to the death of that wing of the party. And the same will likely occur to the post Trump GOP. I imagine its successors will be far weaker than "the man" was, and that you might have republicans well into the 2040s or even 2050s going on about how great Trump was and the good old days. After all, I saw the GOP doing this during the Obama years with Reagan, and honestly, a huge issue I have with progressives is they still seem stuck in 1930sesque politics, not knowing how to move forward, rejecting the neoliberal post Clinton party, and seem to look backwards at FDR than forward (hence why I prefer the "forward" party). 

So....while Bernie could likely unite the progressive wing, he is one step in the grave, and again, I'm kind of groaning over this. 

Honestly, it's quite clear who I want. Andrew Yang. But, the progressives seem to hate yang because they think he's one of those yuppie professional class guys who doesn't understand the labor politics of old. So they crap on him for every break from left wing orthodoxy and treat him like he's Mike Bloomberg or something, when no, if anything he's a disaffected professional class guy with the best interests for the working class. He just has different ideas, and the progressive wing is just intolerant of anyone who doesn't think exactly like them at this point. 

Marianne Willamson has been thrown around, and I feel like her progressive chops have grown since 2020 where people don't just see her as "orb mommy" any more. I mean, having listened to her on yang's podcast, it seems like both Yang and Williamson have progressive street cred in my opinion, with Williamson more popular among the progressive base. I could see a run of hers doing well, but I'm not sure it would do as good as Bernie. Williamson, on yang's podcast, has also shown a willingness to undercut the dems if they try to screw her with underhanded tactics, and would be willing to run on a third party ticket, potentially even the forward party. 

Nina Turner was, for a while, my go to successor to Bernie's movement, and had a close association with Bernie's 2020 campaign, but honestly, after she lost her primary in Ohio, and the progressive caucus recently snubbed her, I'm not sure she could draw the support Sanders did.

To be fair. maybe that's the problem. No one can really unite that wing like Bernie could. I have cooled on Bernie since 2020 I think but I could still back him if I saw him as the best option again. And that's the thing. So would everyone else too. It might be starting to look like Expendables 3 with the old crew well past its prime coming back together for one last job AGAIN, but maybe it would work.

Or maybe not. I was going to discuss this separately, and maybe I still will when I complete the book, but reading Thomas Frank's "Listen Liberal" is really kind of reinforcing for me that the old school progressive politics are dead. And while there is a resurgence among SOME democrats, the fact is, the democrats simply represent the professional class, its interests,  and there will never be enough organized democrats to take over the party, given the nature of its primary process and the relatively unorganized nature of independents. 

What we really need is a party realignment. And if you can't do it from within the party, you need to do it from the outside. A splitting of the democratic coalition that cripples it, in hopes that is causes the two major parties to reorganize their coalitions and realign in ways more conducive to working class politics. Because we we are, and where we're going, we're screwed. As long as the republicans are a bunch of angry far right reactionaries, and democrats are the party of educated elites who don't care about the real issues plaguing this country, nothing will change. 

Again, for me, it's Yang. I don't know if he can really draw enough people in to make a difference. But I like his politics, and he's the only one with the party machinery and willingness to see the democrats for what they are and leave. People might hate on him because he isn't a true "progressive". Well...as I said, I feel like progressives these days are too rigid and purity testy, and their politics is stuck in the 1930s. Seriously. FDR was great for the time, but his politics are that of dinosaurs at this point. If there's anything I agree with the "new democrats" on in "listen liberal", it's that New Deal politics are a thing of the past, and while there are some aspects of it we can bring back, there's also a lot that can be left behind. They're quite frankly too dated at this point and the world isn't what it was 90 years ago. Less labor and more UBI and I would like them a lot better, but honestly, they need to expand their aspirations beyond simply trying to make wage slavery slightly less crappy. 

But that's just me. And I understand I have a minority of a minority opinion at this point, with like 2% of the country maybe agreeing with me.

Thursday, April 21, 2022

Bernie potentially running for president in 2024: should he?

 So, it's come out today that Bernie is considering a 2024 run if Biden does not run for president again. The real question is: should he?

I'm gonna be honest. If Bernie runs a third time, I'm probably going to be a lot less enthusiastic about him this time around. Don't get me wrong, I still have mad respect for the guy, but let's be honest, over the past 2 years, our politics have diverged quite a bit and I'm not as enthusiastic about a third run from the guy. In 2016, he was clearly the best we had and supported some of my priorities, but with the introduction of Yang and now the Forward party, I've always had mixed loyalties on Sanders. And in the past 2 years, my politics have shifted much harder in Yang's direction. I'm more willing to compromise down to a public option on medicare for all, knowing that funding both UBI and M4A is difficult, and free college has always been a distant third priority for me. I would personally benefit from student debt forgiveness, but a UBI could allow me to put the money toward my loans anyway, and all that's REALLY needed for me to compromise there is a removal of the IBR tax bomb, which if I recall Yang was for. What I have become more firm on is UBI, and Bernie just doesn't support that at all. He's a full jobs program kind of guy. He has that green new deal, and while I ain't going to crap on efforts to improve our infrastructure to be more environmentally friendly, I'm not big on large scale public works. Minimum wage and stuff is fine, but again, these fixes don't end wage slavery. Bernie means well, but his politics are straight out of the 1930s. I mean, he's a dinosaur, politically speaking. I'm really not as enthusiastic about the old left. I believe we need a new left and Yang's politics are more my style. 

Speaking of dinosaurs, how old would Bernie be upon taking office? Like 83? That's kind of a hard sell for me. I mean, before the last couple elections, anyone over 70 was considered a bad person for the job since they might die in office, but Bernie will be in his 80s. And while I wouldn't be as opposed to 75 year old Bernie Sanders getting in and then leaving office at 83, getting in at 83 he's going to be getting out at 91...if he lasts that long. I mean, at that age your life expectancy is like 6 years, so he's probably gonna be one term, with him having less than a 50% chance of getting through 2. I hope he has a strong VP. I think in 2020 I heard Nina Turner thrown around who would be a decent option, but eh.

Now, beyond that, would he ever win? Well, working within the democratic party, probably not. The democratic party is dropping with hostility toward Bernie, regularly choosing the concerns of the white suburbanite professional class over the working class, and using cynical identity politics to sabotage any chance of a progressive uprising from within. And while by 2024 I think the argument for a true successor to Biden could be significantly weakened, I really think the party will mobilize in the primary at least to push an alternative, even if it means getting creamed in the general. And Bernie, he isn't willing to, if it comes down to it, split the vote. Again, given I'm a "forward" kind of guy, I feel like any progressive challenger to the establishment within the party would need to be willing to walk and run on a third party ticket if needed. That's always been a concern of Bernie, he's too nice. He runs, he's hated by the party, he gets crushed because of the now traditional (since 1992) voting base that hates old new deal democrats, and then he endorses the nominee. 

Honestly, that's another thing I feel like Yang has up on Bernie. Yang seems to understand that the democratic party is broken and supports stuff like ranked choice voting to fix the problem. He also has been leaning more and more toward being willing to actually challenge the dems with a third party run push comes to shove to keep them honest. bernie just plays their game, and then loses, and then just gets behind the party. We need someone with backbone, someone who is willing to make waves with the party if they screw them. Like Marianne Williamson or even Nina Turner. And both of them aren't ancient either.

Now, if Bernie did win, could he be electable? Eh, maybe? In 2016, I think bernie would've ran with it and held the rust belt. In 2020, I feel like the country cooled on bernie somewhat. The socialist rhetoric became less popular, and he would've objectively done worse than Biden. While I suspect he would win the rust belt and narrowly win the election, he would've lost Georgia and Arizona in a landslide. Why? Because the dem strategy in the south once again relies explicitly on winning over minorities and the professional class. And given how enamored the white working class is with trump and how much they now hate "socialism" for some reason, I'm not sure how strongly they would've gone for Bernie. I feel like the country changed from 2016 to 2020. people became less enthused about Bernie and Trump actually gained support with wedge demographics if anything. 

In 2024 how would he do? I don't know. Sadly there are no polls on it. Still, Biden is down 3.7 to trump which is an almost definite loss, and Harris is WORSE. The fact is, if Biden doesn't run for reelection, the democrats are screwed. Bernie could distance himself from the Biden administration given his progressive orientation, and he could be successful, but given inflation I feel like he would be attacked relentlessly. I feel the same about any leftie honestly. Unless inflation is under control, I feel like the left is gonna be screwed. Still, could I see Bernie eeking out a win? Yeah. I think he would probably be the only other person than Biden who could potentially secure a democratic win. It might mean that the new democratic southern strategy fails, but he does have a path to victory up north. If you want to know what I think a Bernie win map would look like, it would be this: a 275-263 narrow win. The fact is, he won't win anywhere in the south, but as long as he holds the rust belt, he can secure a win. He could even possibly make headroom in places like Iowa and Ohio, but I wouldn't count on them either. The trump camp seems to be making headroom in the rust belt and midwest and I don't see any democrat reversing those states. I will say, if Bernie did, it would be a massive repudiation of the centrist wing of the party and show us that we really don't need the south to win. But yeah. The fact is, I really don't think the democrats would let Bernie anywhere near the nomination and even if he did win, I could see them mcgoverning him. 

The fact is, bernie's moment was in 2016. In 2020, I feel like his magic was gone or seriously reduced. We had more options, and the democratic party was more all over the place, with people supporting Biden, Bernie, or a wide variety of people in between like Yang, Warren, Buttigieg, etc. And most people went with Biden. I do feel like the dems kind of pushed the narrative toward Biden unfairly, but the fact is, bernie could never break like 35% support in most polls. And the centrists just had an overwhelming statistical majority where all they had to do was organize to remove their excessive cadndiates and turn it into a two person race. And then Biden destroyed Bernie.

And while Bernie would have won if he had made it to the general, it would've been narrower than Biden was. And while Bernie does have the luxury of coming out swinging far to the left of the Biden administration and potentially saving the party from itself in the general, I don't think he has the magic he did. He's ancient, his politics are dated and have several weaknesses, and I honestly think things would be better if the "progressive" option of the party was someone else. Maybe Turner, maybe Williamson, and I would get behind Yang in a heartbeat. Honestly, I feel like the progressive wing needs someone younger and slightly less polarizing.

That said, would I vote for Bernie in 2024? In the primary, eh, I wouldn't rule it out, but it depends. In the general, probably. Heck that's one of the few options that would dissuade me from a potential Yang vote or write in. All in all though? For now, I plan to see how Yang and the Forward Party approach 2024 before I set anything in stone. Ideally, I'd like to see yang run within the party, and then do a third party run against the eventual dem nominee in order to pressure concessions from them. The fact is, I don't think we can get real change from within the democratic party, and we will need to run third party candidates to try to crack the two coalitions and begin a realignment. otherwise we're gonna end up with more trump vs clinton type elections with the faces changing until some time in the 2050s or 2060s.

Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Discussing Robert Putnam's "Upswing" book

 So a friend recently recommended Robert Putnam's book "Upswing: How America Came Together a Century Ago and How We Can Do It Again." We discussed it at length privately but I do want to at least discuss it briefly on here. 

Basically, the guy's premise was that over the past 125 years or so, we spent around 60 years from the 1900s to the 1960s becoming more collectivist, which gave us more progressive institutions overall, but then in the 1960s things reversed the other way, and in the process, we entered a second gilded age. This thesis roughly mirror Robert Reich's arguments that between 1929 and the modern day there is a suspension bridge of inequality, where in both 1929 and the modern day we have reached insane peaks, but that from the great depression to around 1970 we went downwards toward a more equal society, and starting in 1970 we've become unequal again.

Putnam approaches this largely from a sociological perspective, looking at things like relatively collectivist attitudes, in which we thought of ourselves more as a collective than as individuals, and strong engagement and belief in various institutions such as unions, clubs, etc. He also cites a great cultural undoing of this in the 1960s, in which society pushed back against the stifling collectivism of the 1950s and this led to more individualistic expression in the 1960s and 1970s, which led to a decline in institutions and attitudes that made us more equal from then onward.

Ultimately, I'm going to be honest. i liked the book, and I generally agree with the premise, but from a political science perspective I can't help but view things very differently. I tend to look at things in terms of party alignments. There's a theory going around that every few decades, generally speaking every 36 years, but it can vary and this rule has gotten weaker in modern times presumably because of increase lifespans and world war ii leading to relatively unequal demographics that messed up the pattern, generally speaking, every few decades, you get party realignments. And a lot of Putnam's theory, in my opinion, can also be explained via party realignment theory. For example, I would separate America in the time frame Putnam mentioned into five distinct eras. 

1896-1932- The Progressive Era

1932-1968- The New Deal Era

1968-1980- Transition period

1980-2016- Neoliberal Era

2016-present- Another transition period

I mean if I wanted to go further back, I could also include these prior American eras of history

1860-1896- Civil War/Reconstruction/Gilded Age

1828-1860- Populist Era

1796-1828- Federalist/Anti Federalist Era

I mean, it happens like clockwork. But say, for the sake of argument, we look at Putnam's theory through this lens. 

1896-1932- So, this is the progressive era, which was heralded in by William Jennings Bryan's presidential run. Bryan was a populist, and he was critical of the gilded age, which had been a growing concern in the previous decades. But, for the most part, in the 1860-1896 era, you largely had republican dominated politics, with the gilded age and its concerns only becoming an issue in the second half. By 1896 all of those dividing lines that had defined the country since the civil war had shifted, and we saw more of a focus toward wealth inequality.

Of course, institutional changes were slow in this era. While you had some incremental changes under say, Roosevelt, you didn't really see MASSIVE shifts in this era. But, as Putnam would point out, the attitudes toward the people started becoming more collective in this era. You started seeing more labor organizing, etc. And this grassroots effect did have an effect further down the road. It really was the beginning of people pushing back against hyper individualist gilded age politics, toward a more collective form of politics. While the 1920s were a temporary reversal of this, the great depression in 1929 basically acted as a catalyst, which propelled FDR to power in 1932.

In 1932, the country was in deep trouble. We were in the midst of the greatest economic crisis in modern times, if not all times, and the country was on the verge of collapse. In Russia, we saw the rise of communism just a few years before. In other parts of Europe like Germany and Italy, we saw the rise of Fascism. So FDR shifted hard left, and essentially saved liberal democracy and capitalism as we know it, by passing the new deal. And the new deal was a bit of a third way between capitalism and socialism. It was the start of a new social democratic era in democratic politics, with widespread institutional reforms. It also led to the near destruction of the republican party. The GOP only came back after 20 years in 1952, where the public FINALLY got tired of democratic party leadership, and the republicans ran a moderate platform that was almost the same thing. This paradigm held through 1968, where the new deal coalition came to an end.

Now, the thing about party realignment theory is a lot of it has to do with demographics. One generation replaces another. People die, others are born and come to age, and old people are replaced by new people. And that's generally what drives realignments. Generational shifts. 

Now, this is where Putnam spends a lot of his effort. What happened in the 1960s? Well, according to him, we saw a massive cultural shift from "we" to "I", in which we became more self centered, individualistic, and less attached to our institutions and common culture. You could argue that. The Boomers started coming to age after WWII around that time, and the generation that launched the new deal in the 1930s has become fairly old by this point. The country was gripped by crises from Vietnam, to civil rights, to poverty, and ultimately, during this time, people stopped caring about the collective. The official political narrative would, in my opinion, put most of the blame on civil rights actually. You always had this uneasy coalition in the New Deal Era where the coalition relied on white southerners to have its unbeatable majority, and in the 1960s that fractured as northern democrats under the Kennedy/Johnson administrations went hard in the direction of civil rights, to the point of alienating the south. THis led to, in 1968, the south voting for George Wallace and the democratic party losing its unbeatable coalition. I would also kind of blame the democrats being unresponsive to the needs and desires of young progressive democrats and Humphrey just not being a popular candidate. because, you know, institutionally democrats are crap and have been crap since...the 1960s. They've always been tone deaf and hostile to much of their own voter base throughout the modern era.And this allowed Nixon to come back in 1972 and run the Southern Strategy that allows them to win over those southern whites using dog whistle politics, thus giving the GOP an unbeatable coalition. And while corruption kind of sidelined this ascendent republican party in 1976, the Carter administration was the last gasp of the new deal era, and given his failures, Reagan came in 1980 and pushed hardcore individualism and realigned the parties.

That's basically the political narrative. Putnam, on the other hand, focused on the shift from collectivism and seeing the country as a community to individualism, and you know what? i think he's not wrong here. In the 1960s there was that tipping point, and he makes a good case for it. Boomers coming to age and becoming a dominant voting bloc in the 1964-1980 era definitely did contribute to the shift, and boomers were more individualistic, often referred to as the "me" generation. I think that the focus to civil rights and identity politics did also alienate people. Like, this is something I don't feel Putnam puts enough focus on, but I think that the shared 'we" sentiment only really applied to white males. Women being in the kitchen and blacks being inferior was always just a given in many peoples' minds. And while both groups generally benefited largely during the "we" era in a "rising tide raises all boats" kind of way, once the narrative started explicitly being about things like feminism and civil rights in the 1960s and 1970s, I feel like this created a backlash that essentially made people who previously were collectivist more individualist. because it really wasn't about "them" any more. "We" only really meant "white males" and once the narrative shifted away from them, I feel like people just...went back the other way. They became more individualistic and collective sentiment disappeared. And generally speaking, the shift toward individualism DID explicitly lead to the rise of Reagan. Back during WWII, people made all kinds of sacrifices for the economy. Goods and services were rationed to insane degrees. And people tolerated this due to the war. But by the 1970s when stagflation hit, the people backlashed against carter who told them to wear sweaters and turn the heat down. Americans became extremely selfish from the 1940s to the 1970s, and you can see clear cultural shifts there. 

I kind of have a theory, that the hard times of the gilded age created a desire for collective action. But by the 1960s, the times were so good, and the problems shifted from being about material inequalities to being about wanting more freedom and individual expression, that the boomer generation coming to age just rebelled against old norms. And this meant by 1980, they were voting for Reagan, having enough of collectivism for a lifetime

And that's where I come in, being born in the late 80s. The neoliberal era did explicitly undo a lot of our institutions. Reaganism attacked unions, high taxes, social safety nets. Etc. Everyone focused on short term profits, and less on the individual good for the community, and a generation of this paradigm led to the undoing of much of the progress made in the 20th century. In the 21st century, we millennials describe the situation as arriving to a party that's already over, and basically being forced to clean up after it. We entered our economic adulthood with the great recession, which has scarred us, and many of us have rebelled against Reagan and Bush era right wing economics. We voted for Obama for hope and change, but didn't get it, and we've become deeply cynical in the two party system as it exists. This ultimately led to 2016, another realignment year. Where the dems basically abandoned the working class for white suburbanites, and an ascendant ironclad democratic coalition suddenly imploded. The rust belt went to Trump, as the democrats tried to expand to the south, and people are still reeling from what happened.

I've been calling it all along, it's another political realignment. Except, instead of an ascendent democratic majority that was predicted in 2015, we got the worst of both worlds as the democrats decided to pursue centrism and identity politics, and the republicans regained their popularity through Trumpian populism. So now we're heading toward a much darker realignment than i could have predicted, and yeah.

For Putnam, we basically need to get back out shared sentiment in order to be collective again. But if you follow his advice, this will take way too long, for benefits that are way too brief. Seriously. If it takes two generations to build a communitarian coalition, and one generation to destroy it, we're at a disadvantage. And that's basically what happened. It took an entire generation of progressive era organizing just to get the new deal, and then after a generation of actual institutional change, we changed back on a dime and went hard back toward individualism. And the effects were much more immediate. That's not good. While I do believe that millennials and zoomers are more collectivist than say, boomers and gen X, we dont really have the political power or organizing to do anything. And while I am kind of optimistic about unionization efforts finally happening here in the 2020s, I don't really want to wait until mid century to see REAL positive changes. I want that crap NOW.

Also, it should be noted that collectivism is unpopular. Americans are still very individualist. Most are so selfish they refuse to put on masks or get vaccinated and want people to work in dangerous environments for sub par wages to provide them cheap luxury goods and services for their entitled mentalities. And even among more collective minded ones, like say, me, I'm NOT really looking forward to old school collectivism again. I'm not a social person. I dont enjoy clubs, or charity work, or the idea of unions. My entire political perspective is actually a more individualistic version of left wing politics with greater respect for individual autonomy and freedom. I kind of reject the collectivist attitudes but want the rewards regardless, so I pursue a synthesis of the ideas, that respects freedom and individuality as much as possible while still providing the benefits of such things. i get why boomers turned on the old left. i dont want those mistakes to happen again, and my ideology, as an ex conservative myself, is literally designed to bypass those problems. The problem with collectivist spirit is it must be continually maintained, but just like happened in the 1960s, it WON'T be. People will turn on it quickly, and then things will unravel. My goal to stop that is essentially to create a system where most people individually benefit and would have to be stupid to fight this stuff. And while I admit our country has a stupidity issue, as long as enough people are smart enough to see the benefits of say, UBI and universal healthcare, those programs won't be targetted and repealed. 

So, idk, I don't really see eye to eye with Putnam. Because I'm not part of the old left. i dont particularly value the come back of old 20th century liberalism or collectivism. It has its benefits, but it had its flaws. And I dont see a consensus around such ideas for long. People are too selfish for that, especially in America. And while I think Putnam would view selfishness as a problem, I do think it should be embraced and accepted to some degree. The key is working around it and trying to find a way to enjoy collective benefits without demanding the kinds of sustained shared sacrifice traditional collectivist political orders require. Again, all the benefits of collectivism, with the minimum sacrifices. That's what I'm about. Kind of a synthesis, attempting to counter the weaknesses of both paradigms.

Still, regardless of the disagreements I have with Putnam, it's a good book. I like it a lot. I generally agree with the overall premise, with my framings and approaches to the problems being more nuanced critiques given my more hybrid political philosophy. And I feel like my ideology would work better if it can only gain support. After all, the kinds of philosophies that inform me were designed explicitly to counter neoliberalism, and reinvent the left within a neoliberal era. And for me, that's what's needed. The left is never going to win if it requires a culture based on collectivist sentiment and shared sacrifice. Americans just don't go for that stuff. We need something that combines the values of individualism and freedom, with economic security for all. Which is what I think my particular ideology does.