So, it's not surprise that Biden's approval rating has been dropping for a while. And I came across a relatively recent poll covered by NBC news that tries to untangle this mess. And given I have mixed views on Biden, I'm going to be giving commentary as we go along.
General approval
Generally Biden's approval rating has been dropping significantly over time. Back in April 2021, a year ago, Biden's approval rating was 53%, with 39% disapproving. Nowadays, about a year later, the rating have reversed, with 40% approving and 55% disapproving. I won't comment too much here as I want to discuss the specific issues, but it's a significant drop. Some of this is going to largely be due to Biden's inability to deal with many issues, but some of it is also because presidents get unnaturally high approval when they get into office. They're given a honeymoon period where they're given the benefit of the doubt, and then unless they do things people like, they lose support over time. I would argue that a combination of the two is responsible for this. it should be noted results seem pretty consistent since at least October, where the numbers were 42% approve and 54% disapprove. So yeah, definitely lost that honeymoon period and people are unhappy.
COVID
Now, this is one area where my own take is going to be highly unpopular, but I'm going to look at it. Biden started off strong on COVID, a year ago the vaccine was coming out, it was making an impact, the economy was reopening, and people had every reason to be positive toward Biden. Approval was at 69% and disapproval at 27%. But, things quickly became polarized as Biden tried to enforce vaccine mandates, and they fell through, and the virus never really went away, and he lost a lot of support, where by January this year, Biden's approval dropped to 44% and disapproval at 53%. Now, this is where I disagree with the rest of the country. Up to this point, I largely approved. Biden was following CDC guidance, he was trying to enact mandates, he wanted to keep it under control. But Americans don't like to take their medicine. So they threw tantrums and starting around January/February, Biden kind of went into "it is what it is" mode. He seemingly is abandoning any major public policy on the matter and seems intent to get back to "normal" at all costs. While he's listening to the will of the people here, and the most recent poll shows an approval bump back up to 53% with 46% I'm going to be honest, I'm not feeling Biden on this one, and the American people should be ashamed of themselves. We need to combat the virus and I know people just wanna go back to normal at all costs, the virus is still out there and it's still getting people sick. And we do have a stubborn 30-40% of the country that just refuses to take their medicine, and you know what, screw them and their feelings. They should be ashamed. ironically, they're also the people most keen to want to go back to "normal". They're basically the republicans. They're sociopaths. They just wanna ignore the darned thing and act like it's not there and who cares who dies. Well, I do. And I am now in the disapprove category for Biden caving to these guys.
The economy
This is where Biden has really dropped the ball. While Biden started off with a tepid but positive 52%, with 43% disapproval, his ratings have dropped precipitously and he's now at 33% approval and 63% disapproval. And you know what? he deserves it. There's more on this later and to some extent there's always going to be the 40% of the country that blames everything on him and paints him as Jimmy Carter for daring to give people money while being unemployed, or giving $1400 checks in general, but honestly, for the number to be THIS high, clearly many people are unhappy. And you know what, that includes a lot of the left.
The fact is, build back better was tepid as it was, and he couldnt even get that passed. he compromised on a compromise on a compromise, and then the people who pushed him to compromise just said "just kidding we never wanted this anyway." Biden is a joke of a negotiator and of a politician. he could forgive student debt at the stroke of a pen, but won't. And you know what, i feel like people have had it with him. Both on the left and the right. This is what happens when you triangulate, instead of making everyone happy, no one is happy, except for that 1/3 of his country that is hardcore neoliberals who will praise Biden no matter how badly he does. But anyone who isn't totally loyal to the democratic party is unhappy right now. For good reason.
Honestly, he's never gonna make anyone happy, but if he shifted left, he could at least make his base happy. If he shifts right, the trumpers will never be happy, and the left won't either.
Foreign policy
On foreign policy, Biden was considered weak in January of this year, with 37% who approve and 54% who disapprove. Foreign policy has largely not been in the limelight prior to the Ukraine war, and Biden's only accomplishment prior to this was getting out of Afghanistan. How do I feel about that? I approve mostly, but I do admit it was messy. Trump apparently made a deal the year before and dropped this in his lap, leading to a messy withdrawal which was seen as shameful by some. While it would've been nice to leave in a more organized fashion though, well, bite me, we've been there for 20 years, we should've pulled out 10 years ago after we got Bin Laden, and staying there forever is just a massive waste of US resources. If the country can't rule itself by now, it never will be and I am fine with pulling the plug.
But, many normies are jingoistic and have this national pride thing of NO WE HAVE TO WIN! Uh, let it go. This is sunk cost fallacy at this point, and honestly, while people will ignorantly complain about the pull out, well, yeah no, I have to give Biden credit for having the balls to do something good here. And I know a lot of lefties actually approve of these moves, but still won't given Biden credit because something something war crimes all presidents are bad. Seriously, this is why i don't care the left seriously either.
Now, current numbers. Biden has gained some slight approval. 42% for approve, 51% for disapprove now. Ukraine is helping him, but it's not helping enough. We'll get to this later.
Cost of living issues
So, the American dream is in the toilet at this point. 62% feel like they're falling behind, 31% say they're staying the same, and a few people say they're gaining. To be fair, only a minority ever seems to say they're gaining, which seems to say a lot about the American dream. It mentions 1996 during the Clinton years and how 50-51% felt they were falling behind, 37-38% thought they were staying the same, and 9-10% were gaining. So most typically do think they're falling behind with a plurality staying the same. It's just WORSE now, as some of the staying the same people are now falling behind due to inflation.
I don't blame people for feeling this way. I don't think that the economy has served the average person for a long time, and we havent had real wage growth mostly since the 1960s and early 1970s. Since then productivity and income as decoupled and only the top 20% have benefitted since. For everyone else it was a struggle to stay the same or fall behind. While inflation is exacerbating the issue, the economy has always sucked in my opinion. We do need to get inflation under control, but beyond that, we need a new paradigm.
What's to blame for inflation?
38% blame Biden, 23% corporate price increases, 28% COVID, and a small minority blame the Ukraine War.
Honestly, I think the 38% who blame him are the conservative "let's go brandon" crowd. It seems to align with Trump's demographic roughly. People are idiots there. Biden has little to do with inflation. It's mostly COVID and reopening the country that sparked it, with some companies getting greedy and gauging because they think they can. So that 51% of the country is smart in my opinion.
And yeah. I do think Biden is suffering somewhat due to inflation but it's good to see so many people understand it's not necessarily Biden's fault.
Also, when asked to choose between focusing on Ukraine or inflation, 68% chose inflation and 29% Ukraine. Eh, not surprised. Americans are greedy jerks sometimes. They care mostly for their own bottom line and don't care about others. We have a very sociopathic culture.
What would I choose? Well, I'm undecided. Honestly, the fed needs to solve inflation. And while sanctions could exacerbate things somewhat, honestly, I'm willing to put up with higher inflation temporarily to bleed Russia dry here. The fact is, Russia is pulling Hitler crap and they need to be held accountable. If Russia is not stopped in Ukraine they will be emboldened and we will have an actual WWIII on our hands. So I guess I am in the 29% that says Ukraine. Once again in the minority.
Now, if the answer was UBI and M4A or ukraine I'd be more tempted, but again, I feel like the Ukraine issue is actually the most important issue to deal with at the moment and I feel like it's the one issue Biden can actually act on in a positive way. I mean, Biden is stalled on economics and I have no confidence in his ability to fix the economy. I mean, even getting beyond his lackluster agenda, he's just stalled. His own party is stabbing him in the back, getting rid of inflation isn't an easy fix and is mostly in the hands of the fed in my opinion. I mean what CAN Biden do?
Also, as I see it, the Ukraine thing is a temporary issue. Russia's war is unsustainable. I am guessing we can break Russia by June or so. Their losses are too high and Russia itself seems to realize they're on the clock and need to end this quickly.
War in Ukraine
This is where things get dismal for Biden. Interpreting the results, it seems like the US does not have a stomach for the Ukraine war, and fear Biden dragging us into it. A combined 28% seem to approve of Biden's ability to handle the war, while 71% disapprove or have little to no confidence in Biden. That's TERRIBLE. High numbers of people think that the war is increasing prices in the US (83%), and many fear us getting more deeply involved. 82% fear nuclear war, and 74% are afraid we will fight in Ukraine. 16% think we're at war with Russia, and 41% think we will be within the year.
Honestly, this is where I feel like I must once again chastise the American people. First of all, the economic concerns. it's not the major issue, but seriously how freaking selfish are people? While I think the choice between combatting inflation and being tough on Russia is a false one, honestly, I am willing, in the short term at least (say, through June), to put up with higher prices if it means crushing Russia economically and sabotaging its invasion. Beyond that we can sit back and recalculate our options if the fighting is not concluded by then, but seriously. Just, screw the American people here.
As far as getting involved directly, look, I get it, but I want to be clear. BIDEN IS TRYING NOT TO GET US INVOLVED DIRECTLY. Zelensky is constantly chastising the west for not fighting Russia directly, even with all the aid we're trying to provide. We're literally trying to approve a new lend lease act to Ukraine, something that ironically helped Russia win in WWII. We're trying to provide aid, but not get involved directly. We're not interested in fighting Russia. Because it would be a nasty war that could end in nuclear holocaust. As long as the war is conventional, the combined forces of the US and NATO would crush Russia based on their performance so far, but honestly, we don't want it to come to that. And as far as us getting involved directly, well, that's up to Putin. If Putin attacks us, or even like Poland or something, that's his problem, and we're merely responding to our commitments. But I honestly think even Putin is sane enough to know that would go poorly for him. Russia is not the power it used to be, if it ever was anything more than a paper tiger in the first place.
The fact is, the people fearing Biden for being too hawkish are out of their depth. They don't know what they're talking about, and Biden is handling this crisis admirably. There's nothing to worry about.
Who should control congress?
Last year it was 47% democrats, 42% republicans. Now it's 44% democrats, 46% republicans. It's unclear how much of this is typical margin of error stuff, for most of the year, it's been 45-46% republicans and 47% democrats. The shift to 44% for democrats is problematic, but it could just be natural variation.
Still, the republicans? While the Trumpers will be Trumpers, I don't understand why people would support the GOP unless they're really brainwashed. And while I don't necessarily approve of democrats, they are a lesser evil here.
Conclusion
Honestly, to some extent, Americans are fickle, sociopathic idiots with no understanding of issues and seem to simply not have the resolve to do what's right. They're overly focused on their economic situation, and while Biden deserves a lot of blame for flopping on economics, there are more important issues right now than inflation. The fights against COVID or Russia aren't over, and Americans just have no stomach for either one. I mean, this is coming from the guy who says he would sell out social issues for economic in a heartbeat, but honestly, I'm disappointed. COVID and Ukraine are important, and I think we need to take strong stands on both. And while I sympathize with Americans thinking Biden sucks on the economy, because he does, I feel like they often blame him for the wrong reasons. Inflation is largely not his fault. What is his fault is his inability to pass build back better, let alone a more ambitious agenda like I support.
I might not like Biden on economics, but I criticize and oppose him out of principles, and failure to support policies I like. I don't blame him for inflation. it's not his fault.
And as for the other issues...uh, I felt like Biden WAS doing a good job on COVID. And on Ukraine I can't praise him enough so far, outside of one off color comment about regime change in Russia that he probably shouldn't have (openly) made (let's face it, we're all thinking it).
But the American people disagree.
Honestly, do I approve of Biden? Given my focus is on Ukraine and I understand Biden is DOA on anything to do with economics, I would say yes. I approve of his handling on Ukraine.
As far as economics? No. I don't. Although I don't blame him for inflation. I just hate how moderate and useless he is in general.
And on COVID, I disapprove of him backing down on being tough on it.
The fact is, on COVID, I support fighting the virus. On Ukraine, I support supporting Ukraine and sanctioning Russia without fighting Russia directly. On economics, I support getting inflation under control and implementing my own agenda, which is not Biden's.
Biden fails in many ways, but he's also getting way too much hate at the same time. it's like living through the Jimmy Carter years ago. The country hates him for crap that isn't his fault. Although I would still have plenty reason to despise Carter too. It's frustrating. Americans really are selfish, ignorant, and fickle. Biden isn't perfect, but he's not terrible. I'd take him over any republican.
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