Thursday, June 30, 2022

Dear religious nutjobs, keep your religion out of our government!

 So, I may not be an atheist any more, but there are times when I feel like I have to go "full atheist" in reference to my atheist days of 2012-2014 or so in dealing with religious nonsense. The other day I had a fairly civil article explaining to pro lifers why they are hated by half the country. This is going to be the not so nice version of that. 

Look, you are free to believe whatever you want. I don't care. I support the first amendment, and I support your right to believe in whatever you want. Even if it is wrong. Even if it is arguably harmful for society. Even if I think you're stupid or hateful for it.

HOWEVER, if you start pushing that crap on the rest of us, we're gonna have a problem. And as such, I need to go after these guys again. I hate having to do this. I want to discuss UBI, and healthcare, and stuff like that. But instead, because the regressive right is taking away our abortion rights, and is targetting other stuff, I'm having to backtrack and defend the left on issues we had already won.

I'm not some woke moron either. I question SJWs myself all the time and my record on this blog attests to that.

But, religious right, where the hell do you get off on telling us what to do on the basis of your religion? KEEP YOUR FREAKING FANTASIES OUT OF MY GOVERNMENT.

There's no good reason to be against gay marriage. Gay people want to screw each other in the butt? LET THEM. It doesn't hurt you. It doesn't affect anyone but the people involved. Who the hell are you guys to tell people that they can't do that, or that they can't be married because of YOUR religion? Screw your religion. Screw it. I'm seriously. I don't give a flying frick about your religion. But if you're gonna use it to tell me I can't do something? That's a problem.

Same thing with abortion. I admit this issue is a bit more sensitive because we are killing a fetus. But you know what? You STILL don't get off telling us what to do on the basis of your religion. If you don't want abortions, don't get them. But don't tell me I can't because YOU think it's wrong. 

Trans issues. Basically, just apply the same logic as homosexuality. Idk what's with these right wing edgelords obsessed with this trans people. HURR DURR YOURE REALLY A MAN!

WHO. THE HELL. CARES?!

Yes, I also get annoyed by wokies pushing the issue too. But, you guys are just as insufferable. And you're not even right. At least the SJWs are right, no matter how misguided their approach. I don't care if people identify as literal attack helicopters. WHO CARES?! Let them do what they want as long as they're not forcing it on you. And before you say they are, eh, maybe SJWs are a bit overzealous, but no one is telling you to be trans. At most they want you to respect their pronouns, which, you should at least try to make a good faith attempt on. I admit, the SJWs do go a bit overboard. I've had trans friends go nuclear on me for misgendering them ONCE, when it just didn't sink in. Ya know, maybe taking a more soft route and explaining it one more time and correcting would've been better, and the militant crap pisses people off, but why some people die on the hill of misgendering trans people INTENTIONALLY because of their own views is beyond me. It's a jerk move. What can I say? Don't do it. Try to at least respect the other person. If you make an honest mistake you make an honest mistake. But you know, TRY.

One issue I will concede a bit on is the people who think you're transphobic for not sleeping with trans people...yeah, they're weird. I bring this up because I literally got crap from SJWs on it before, and my stance is, again, you wanna do what you want, that's fine, just don't bring me into it. Telling me im morally required to bang trans people or not have a prejudice against them as sexual partners is kinda bringing me into it. So yeah I will concede that to the right. The fact is, my right to choose my sexual partners outweighs a trans person's right to sex. But OTHER THAN THAT, all the people getting all butthurt because people just merely decide to be trans, it's like, who cares? LET THEM. It's their life. Not yours. 

Oh, and before people go on about turning kids trans, uh....gender dysphoria is a real thing, people spend years getting therapy before gender reassignment is on the table, and the minors getting it are DEFINITELY AND TOTALLY TRANS. Like seriously, if you're diagnosed at the age of 9, you're likely not gonna transition until you're like 16. No, this isn't just a kid having a phase thinking they're a cat. This is a real life documented phenomenon. And gender reassignment is granted to people who have had lifelong struggles with their gender identity. 

It's annoying man, it's annoying. 

All I really want is a society where people can do what they want as long as they're not harming others. If people wanna get abortions, be gay, be trans, etc. LET THEM. And the same with you guys. If you're being religious and not harming anyone with it. I WILL LET YOU. I DONT WANT TO TAKE AWAY YOUR FREE EXERCISE RIGHTS. But, YOU DONT GET TO TELL OTHERS TO LIVE ACCORDING TO YOUR RELIGION.

All laws and restrictions should have primarily secular purposes. Spirituality can influence your views, but you don't get to tell people what to do based on that spirituality. If you can't justify it secularly, on the basis of some sort of grave individual or societal harm, or restriction of certain rights, freedoms, and abilities, then you don't have a right to push it on the rest of society. PERIOD. 

Really, I despise authoritarianism. Laws exist for common secular purposes. Your own private morality is not sufficient to impose laws on other people. Laws exist to respond to real problems with real human behavior, that can only be properly solved by those laws. Religious based morality isn't based on those assumptions. It's often based on divine command theory or other illiberal epistemologies. They have no place in our government.

So what does the 2022 election forecast looking like?

 I know it's early, but I feel like I should be running some electoral scenarios for November. We should be mostly past primaries at this point, and I can get some baseline for what's going on this election cycle.

Senate

Realclearpolitics has 7 senate races in play, with the "leans" races effectively being +8 or more in my experience, meaning they are pretty safe in my estimation. I only really look at races with less than an 8 point difference generally, as swings larger than that are well outside of the margin of error and in my methodology have a <2% chance of flipping

This gives us the following 7 races:

Arizona- Kelly (D) is defending his seat from the GOP (candidate to be decided)

Georgia- Raphael Warnock (D), who won the pivotal special election in 2020, has to defend his seat from  Hershal Walker (R)

New Hampshire- Hassan (D) has to defend his seat from the GOP (candidate to be decided)

North Carolina- Open seat being contested between Ted Budd (R) and Cheri Beasley (D)

Nevada- Catherine Masto (D) is defending her seat vs Adam Laxalt (R)

Pennsylvania- The race I'm following closely because I live here: John Fetterman (D) takes on Dr. Oz for the seat Pat Toomey (R) is retiring from

Wisconsin- Ron Johnson (R) defends his seat from the dems (candidate to be decided)

Generally speaking, the republicans hold 47 seats, while the democrats hold 46. Each side needs to win 4 races to control the senate. The GOP needs 51 votes, while the dems need 50. 

So, here's the predictions based on RCP's polling data. For reference, I will be assuming the presumed primary winner takes on the other candidate in cases where that is unclear, so I will only count those polls.

States

Winner/Margin

Z score

% D Win

% R Win

Seats D win

Seats R win

Arizona
Kelly +9.0%
-2.25
98.8%
1.2%
47
54
Pennsylvania
Fetterman +9.0%
-2.25
98.8%
1.2%
48
53
New Hampshire
Hassan + 4.0%
-1.00
84.1%
15.9%
49
52
Wisconsin
Barnes +2.0%
-0.50
69.2%
30.8%
50
51
Georgia
Warnock +1.6%
-0.40
65.5%
34.5%
51
50
Nevada
Cortez Masto +0.7%
-0.14
55.6%
44.6%
52
49
North Carolina
Budd +4.0%
+1.00
15.9%
84.1%
53
48

I'm going to be honest, this actually is surprising me. I admit, the polling here is kind of thin. RCP seems to be doing a poor job keeping track of the polls, and I did check 538 for comparison's sake and they seem to include more polls. They also seem to have their own forecast that is a lot more negative toward the democrats. My own prediction based on the above data, essentially breaks it down to a 69% chance for dems to win, and a 31% chance of the GOP. Whereas 538 says 55% chance GOP, 45% Dems. 

I will admit, the dems were doing terrible in the polls until recently, but they seem to be getting a bump due to the abortion stuff, and also possibly January 6th. the GOP is shooting itself in the foot and creating a backlash effect. What did I say about letting dems play defensive on social issues and let the GOP do stupid crap that pisses people off? They hit the beehive with shooting down Roe V. Wade and just like that, the dems suddenly come out ahead.

I don't expect this bump to last all the way into November given the American public has the memory of a goldfish, but it does give me some hope that maybe, the dems can win. Looking at the polls a lot recently leading up to this gave me a much more negative outlook for them, where it looked like a red wave would sweep them away. Now, I'm not so sure. Still, I do expect this to be a red favored year, so we'll have to see. I trust polling over trends though.

Still, polls can be wrong. While 2018 seemed pretty close, 2016 and 2020 showed major red waves that defied predictions. Say we shifted the results by, say, 3 points. Well, suddenly, we're looking at Wisconsin, Nevada, and Georgia all going red, and the GOP will control the senate with 51 votes. So this isn't a landslide for the dems. If anything, it's too early to really know what will happen. These current numbers are comforting, but admittedly there isnt much data to go by here. We will have to see what things look like in october or so. But right now, the most likely outcome is a 52-48 senate in favor of the dems

The house

The house looks like a completely different story. I don't have much data to go on here, but it looks like on RCP that the GOP winning the house is a foregone conclusion. When the "leans republican" bar is where the pivoting seats are, that means, by my methodology, they effectively have a 98%+ chance of winning. I mean, pack it up, we are done by that point. For reference, 538 has a 87% chance in favor of the GOP, and that might be more reliable. Again, most of those races dont have polls and there's too many races to really account for, so it's hard to say with any certainty what the outcome will be, but I would just say, the dems look done in november for the house.

Governors

RCP has 9 key races to look at here. I'm just gonna post the data.

States

Winner/Margin

Z score

% D Win

% R Win

Michigan
Whitmer +25.5%
-6.38
100%
0%
PennsylvaniaShapiro +4.0%-1.00
84.1%
15.9%
WisconsinEvers +4.0%-1.00
84.1%
15.9%
Maine
Mills +3.5%
-0.88
81.1%
18.9%
Minnesota
Walz +3.5%
-0.88
81.1%18.9%
Nevada
Sisolak +3.5%
-0.88
81.1%18.9%
New Mexico
Lujan Grisham+3.5%
-0.88
81.1%18.9%
Arizona
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Georgia
Kemp +4.8%
+1.20
11.5%
88.5%

Much like the senate, this doesn't look like a massive blowout for the GOP. If anything dems are holding relatively small but consistent leads. This could change easily between now and november, but seriously, the dems seem to be winning most races. It seems like the GOP is pushing extremists no one really likes, while the dems are occasionally pushing decent candidates.

I know in PA, we have Mastriano vs Shapiro, and while Shapiro is a fairly lukewarm moderate, Mastriano is apparently a Trumper who was actually at the January 6th insurrection. Yikes. And in our senate race, Dr. Oz is a weak candidate that doesn't really resonate. Politically the dude is a RINO and he isn't even from PA, so yeah he's doing bad. meanwhile fetterman is the template of "Bernie with an attitude", being a working class guy who dresses down, and has tattoos and a beard. 

Not sure if other states translate the same way, but it seems like most races in play are in favor of the dems. 

Also, I'm not even sure what's going on with Arizona. Both of their parties still have primaries and there's zero general election data yet. I'm also baffled why Michigan was included given Whitmer's insane margin. I mean, Kansas looks like a far more interesting race, where a dem is expected to lose to a republican. Why is this even included?

Conclusion

Honestly, 2022 isn't really shaping up to be that bad of a red wave after all. To be fair I could just be looking right after the dems get a huge boost from January 6th hearings and the GOP hitting the beehive with abortion rights, but in the senate the dems stand to hold their ground or even gain it. Governorships are going the same way. Makes me wonder what's going so badly in the house where it looks like a red wave is going to destroy their majority. Are the models just spitting out red victories because of bad data? I mean models are often input in output out. You put in certain variables and it spits out results based on those variables. Given the conventional knowledge that we're looking at a red tsunami this november, the models might just be outputting based on that. Makes me wonder what's really going on in individual races. But it's kind of hard to tell since so few races have data.We'll see.

Either way I'm doing this in literally June, so, probably not very reliable. Remember how I did 2016 in June too and concluded Donald Trump was screwed? How well did that work out?

Still, I wanted a baseline to go by, so this is what I got.

The January 6th hearings are worth watching or at least reading about

 So, I see mixed views on the January 6th hearings. I feel like parts of the country are watching them horrified at how evil Trump is, but then others are like, meh, it's just political theater.

Okay, look MFers, this crap is worth watching. Or at least reading a summary about in a newspaper. There have been 6 hearings so far, and I watched all 6, but summarizing 12 hours of content like this is too hard unless I went into them planning to write on them like I did for the dem committee hearings. But I will discuss a couple bombshells from the recent one. Like Trump apparently letting people with weapons into his rally telling people to march on the capitol. I know, and this is one of my takes that didn't age too well, that when January 6th happened, that I did not believe he overtly incited anything, but a lot of these hearings discuss stuff like that. He knew these people were armed and wanted to unleash them on the capitol. He actually wanted to lead them to the capitol and was stopped by secret service for obvious security reasons. This led to a physical altercation between him and the secret service agents. And he also apparently was throwing dishes and his food around at the wall when he didn't get his way back at the white house. 

That's just the tip of the iceberg, but as the January 6th committee has been saying, his actions on January 6th were "a coup in search of a legal theory". Remember me wondering where the heck the national guard was? Blame trump for that. He refused to send them in. I blamed racism at the time, but no, the president wanted this to happen and refused to intervene to stop it. When people were chanting "hang Mike Pence" he was saying "maybe he should be hung" or something like that. 

All of this was covered in these hearings. These guys planned this. He and his administration. They wanted this to happen. They were literally inciting a mob to attack the capitol and knew this would happen. So no, this guy should be arrested. He should be charged for sedition. He should probably go to jail and/or be barred from ever running for office again. WILL he face charges? I doubt it. There is a lot of reluctance to try a former president for crimes to begin with, and republicans would actively fight it probably, and I seriously think even a lot of dems, including Biden's AG Merrick Garland, would have the balls. 

So he might get away from all of this. But, I encourage every American to watch the hearings, or at least read summaries about them, and get informed.

At the very least, Trump should never be allowed to get into power again. He only failed because some patriotic Americans decided to not back this coup. We might not be so lucky this time. A future Trump administration would purge everyone not loyal and they will try to do this again. I might even be forced to make a a truce with the dems just to stop this guy if he's the 2024 candidate. This isn't your typical republican. This guy is  wannabe dictator who almost succeeded at overturning the election results. He dangerous. If he wins again our democracy might be in trouble. 

This last part I'm going to aim at republicans. Long before this blog was a thing, I used to be a republican. And I cannot fathom supporting Donald Trump in his current state, even if I still was as conservative as I was at my peak. I would literally be backing Biden right now. Because Biden is a moderate dem who isn't much of a threat to the right. Conservative me, would've held my nose for Hillary and Biden.  When I was a conservative, I cared about the constitution. I cared about the government having limited power. I cared about checks and balances. This guy doesn't. Donald Trump is the kind of guy our constitution was made to stop. And he was only stopped, because the checks on him were as good as they were. Our founders knew someone like Trump would try this crap some day, and we were able to survive him. But if he is allowed to win again, we might not be so lucky. 

Other republicans, whatever. I hate the likes of Ron DeSantis, and Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Ted Cruz, and Mike Pence, but I'm sure at least some of those people wouldn't outright try to steal an election (well, maybe MTG...). They might do shady and questionable stuff, and I despise them as politicians, i might even insult them and call them crazy or idiotic. But they're not Trump. Trump is an existential threat to American democracy, and should never be allowed to hold power again. he should be stripped of his ability to run again by the legal system, and failing that, he should not be allowed near power again by the voters.

This even offers a unique moral dilemma for me, given my anti democratic party third party stance. I hate the idea of being forced to vote for democrats to avoid republicans, as that just enables weak and feckless democrats to hold the system hostage. But if Trump runs again, he offers an existential threat to the system that is severe enough to cause me to consider suspending this rule for myself. I might end up voting democrat just to keep Trump out if he runs again. I'm not sure what I'll do yet, we need to wait for 2024 to play out. And I do consider myself more loyal to the forward party and even the progressive cause than the democrats. 

But, if Trump gets his way, there are no more elections and that is a far worse outcome that we can't recover from. It sucks that it came to this, and I can't help but think (or know, after rereading my old posts) that if Bernie was the nominee in 2016, none of this would have happened. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all went to Trump by less than a point. And Bernie was a significantly stronger candidate than Hillary in the polls that were conducted. All we needed was ONE POINT, and Bernie was generally 1-4 ahead of Hillary at any given time. It infuriates me.  The fact that someone as dangerous as Trump was allowed to take power in the first place is squarely the democrats' fault, for cultivating a brand of politics so distasteful to the American public that Trump actually seemed like a good idea at the time. Forget third party voters for a second. The fact that people liked trump so much should tell you that the dems are doing something wrong.

So to the democrats, DO. FREAKING. BETTER. We are looking more and more like Weimar Germany because the democrats cant get their heads out of their butts and actually run a platform people like. This lesser evil crap isn't working. And Joe Biden is looking like Jimmy Carter 2.0 to me. And what happened next? REAGAN. 

We know the solution. We did it in the 1930s. We need another FDR. Someone like Bernie Sanders, or Andrew Yang, or Nina Turner. Stop running worthless centrists. The whole reason we are in this mess was because the dems didn't run Bernie in 2016. It doesnt have to be Bernie. If anything he's too old and his views are a little too close to FDR's literal views, which are almost a century old now. We need the 21st century version of that. Embrace social democracy and human centered capitalism. Support proposals like universal healthcare and basic income. Make the economy actually work for people, and realign the parties so that this can't happen again, and Trumpism is safely out of the overton window.

Trump can't be allowed to win again. But the strongest antidote to Trump in the long term isn't just supporting a weak opposition party that can't stay on the good side of the people to save their lives. That's what we tried in 2016 and 2020 and now in 2024 Trump actually could win again. We need a political movement that both rejects the status quo and offers a strong refutation of Trumpism. We need to address the material conditions that allow Trump's brand of politics to be popular in the first place. Yes, we need to vote to keep Trumps out. But we actually need an opposition party worthy of the public's support. Only that can help save us from having to deal with another Trump again. 

What I learned reading my own blog

 So, I decided to sit down and read much of my own blog. I did not read every single post, as that would be tedious and I have roughly 6 years of content, but I did read enough to get a general idea of what I wrote then, what I thought then, what I write now, and what I think now. I also can full in a lot of gaps when I did NOT post, and what I thought then, so this is a good record of my thought over the years. I will say I wish I started this sooner, it would be good to revisit my thinking especially from 2010-2016, as I underwent MAJOR shifts in that time frame. Honestly, my views from 2014 on have largely remained the same. 

1) My views have been remarkably consistent over the years

Honestly, I read many of my 2016 views, and I could have written many of those articles in 2022. I literally promote the same brand of politics as I did then, and as I said, I feel like most changes are due to the environment changing around me, rather than me changing. I was full on anti work and pro UBI in 2016. Those views have always been part of my brand. I was always critical of the SJW movement, although I would say I've become more outwardly hostile to them as time has gone on. I never liked socialism, although I did meander left between 2016-2020, only for me to snap back post 2020. I've always hated both the democratic party and the republicans.

2) While most of my takes have aged well, a handful have not

I would say I probably still agree with 95% of my takes over the years, but some of them are just cringe reading them now. Seeing me push stories regarding the 2016 primaries being literally rigged and posting Russian propaganda is cringe to me. And of course, as I pointed out recently, I had a take in which I downplayed Trump refusing to accept the results of the election. The thing is, while I largely hold similar views on the democratic party, honestly, I didn't really know Russians leaked that stuff at the time, and it confirmed what I already figured out on my own, so I still pushed that stuff. I did own up to it afterward, posting that it didn't matter where it came from, if it's true it's true, and I would still say I agree with that, but yeah, for the sake of transparency I should point that out. And as far as Trump refusing to accept the results of the election, eh, I mean, until January 6th, I'm going to be honest. I treated Trump as a giant idiot. The dude is a manchild who I treated with kid gloves because it didn't feel fair, or intellectually fulfilling, to go after the dude seriously. Not to mention the dems do that enough, to the point of making their entire narrative about how bad Trump is. Trump being bad should be obvious, I focus on the left because the counter to the right's ideology has to come from a strong left that actually takes on the right in a meaningful way. Instead the left just takes pot shots at the right while offering little substance of their own.

3) The democratic party hasn't really learned anything

I really hoped 2016 would be a wake up call for the left. Documenting the left's shortcomings, it seems obvious that their election strategy in 2016 was a stinker. But in 2018 they doubled down on their centrist suburbanite strategy, and in 2020 repeated the same strategy with Biden. And it won them the primary again, but the general election was too close for comfort. They almost lost again. And now, with the neolibs back in power, their approval is floundering, with Biden looking like the second coming of Jimmy Carter. I discussed back in 2016 a lot of the history of the democratic party and the left wing infighting from 1968-1980, and it seems like they didn't learn. They still insist on fighting their own party, pushing candidates on them that can't win, and then blaming the base when they lose. And then they wonder why republicans win. Seriously, even though 2016 was a "realigning year", a lot of today's struggles are following the same pattern as the 1970s, which is something that should scare the crap out of the left. 

And yes, I blame the party. The party blames the voters, and I admit, some of what the democrats have said would happen if we did not vote for them have come to happen, such as the Supreme Court. But ultimately, the democrats let it happen. It seems quite clear they have a leadership problem, with that old generation still running things, and they just won't vacate the party. I said in 2016 that the people in charge should vacate the party, hand it off to the next generation, and we should start over. That hasn't happened, and as long as that older generation desperately clings to power as the leaders of the party age into their literal 80s, nothing is going to improve. They can blame voters all they want, but if they can't make them vote for them, that is their problem, not the voters'. 

4) Sometimes more isn't better

While 2016 and 2021 were particularly insightful years on this blog, where I spent more time posting here, more isn't always better. A lot of the time, I sound like a broken record. I write posts that I think are new and groundbreaking when I actually offered the same take a year ago or even six years ago. I sometimes feel guilty for not posting more, but it seems like a lot of the time I force myself to post, I just end up offering repetitive takes in which I talk for way too long. 

I would say this year's posts in particular are among my weakest, since I just end up going on long tangents that don't really fit the post at hand.

All in all, my creative potential ebbs and flows. Sometimes I have a lot to say and I say a lot of things that are worth talking about. Sometimes I don't. I should probably do a better job just posting as per my social energy. This blog isn't going anywhere if I don't constantly post. And if anything, sometimes less is more. I barely posted from 2017-2019, but I didn't really need to. The posts I made are some of my best and still stand the test of time. And if I did force myself to post I'd just sound like a broken record again.

5) Most of my posts sound much better than I give myself credit for

 I'm going to be honest. I kind of discussed this when I first made my blog, but this is relatively informal. Some of my posts are serious pieces of policy that I extensively research and go full throttle on, but others are just me writing stuff off the top of my head, with little idea of where I want to go with stuff. And often I hit post without thoroughly proofreading. My posts are often filled with typos and mistakes I did not catch, but they aren't exactly unreadable. And I make far fewer mistakes than I give myself credit for. A lot of my posts just sound...good. I like them. I agree with them. I'm proud of them.

6) I should probably bash republicans more

When I first started this, I went after everyone, republican and democrat. But a lot of the time, I end just fighting other lefties. There's a reason for this. Quite frankly, attacking republicans is boring. it's like shooting fish in a barrel. I mean, I could blog 20 times a day about how water is wet, but that is kind of pointless, right? Republicans bad. Attacking them is boring. I don't feel like I accomplish much doing so. The fact is, discussing them is largely below me.

At the same time, given the fact that the GOP is going nuts with the supreme court, and all of the January 6th stuff is going on, discussing Trump would probably be a good idea. I don't do it enough. 

7) I have a very solid foundation for my views here

I've gone over existential legwork that I forgot I even did. Stuff that I was thinking of writing about again, but forgot I did years ago. I have a vision, I've been working on it for years, and I really should continue expanding on it. 

8) A lot of developments I've made in the past 6 years could be seen coming from a mile away

Me dropping Bernie for Yang? yeah, the writing's been on the wall for that for a while. The fact is, in 2016, Bernie was the closest to my views, but I always had this pro UBI/anti work streak in my views. And has the Bernie camp has shifted to turn against that, it's no wonder my views have changed. I never was big on the green new deal, and shifting to abandon UBI for that was a shift that just wasn't going to happen. As I said in 2019, we have a lot of great ideas, but we need to prioritize. And I have prioritized. And in doing so, my views have shifted closer to Yang. 

Me becoming more hostile to SJWs is also something that could've been predicted. At first, I tried treating them with kid gloves. I was like, hey I get your concerns, but this kind of politics is just inflaming the alt right, could you cut it out? They didn't cut it out. Instead they try to force me to choose between my priorities and theirs, and it shouldn't be surprising when I throw them to the curb to keep promoting my own brand. If anything, I'm honestly starting to think SJWs are an existential threat to free speech. 

Honestly, a lot of developments try to force me into moments in which I decide, okay, does this event make me change my ethics? And given how strong my beliefs are in my own ethics, it rarely changes much of anything. I might concede on a few minor issues such as Trump being an existential threat to the country, but in all honesty? I'm largely the same. I literally changed a lot less than even I thought I did.

Conclusion: The state of this blog is strong

I have to say, I like most of what I posted here. Again, a few takes haven't aged particularly well, but like 95% of what I've said, I'll stand by as is, with minor corrections and improvements at best. My political views have barely changed in the past 6 years, and in all honesty, I feel like the major differences are the fact that the world has changed around me. If anything, rereading my old posts have given my perspective on issues that I had lost over the years. For example, I've been wondering if I should regret my 2016 green vote given the recent SCOTUS victories. But rereading my old posts makes me realize, yeah, the dems really made their bed and lied down on it. It didn't matter what I did, their strategy was so bad that what happened was inevitable. I mean, seriously, some of my old 2016 stuff is worth reading. I literally documented all of the missteps Hillary had made that alienated me and others. it's no wonder she lost. The dems might attempt revisionist history, but let the record stand that I was against her strategy from the get go, and that I was actually right where the dem propaganda machine was wrong. 

I might decide to post a bit less in some ways from now on, but I might decide to post more in other ways. I only need so many articles telling people that SJWs are bad, for instance. Or that the dems are a corrupt institution. I should branch out more in some ways, I should build on what I have in other ways, without beating the dead horse over and over again. And if there are months or even years where I don't have anything to say, maybe the answer is just not to talk. This blog will always be here to come back to.

Wednesday, June 29, 2022

The activist supreme court strikes again!

 So, SCOTUS is going nuts this term. First Roe v. Wade fell, and now Lemon v. Kurtzman is more or less dead. This time we have the case Kennedy v. Bremerton School District. Essentially, the case was about some football coach who prayed on the field after football games, and answered whether he had the right to do that. These cases are tricky, since the establishment clause and the free exercise clause tend to conflict sometimes. While the establishment clause tends to point that congress shall make no law respecting a an establishment of religion, the free exercise clause gives people the right to freely exercise their religion. But, these tend to create a lot of cases in schools in particular, which are government institutions, and the teachers and the like are government employees. 

Now, from the 1960s on, the supreme court has generally sided with the establishment clause. Teachers, coaches etc. are government employees, and therefore cannot lead students in prayer, as this is an establishment of religion. Essentially, teachers are not allowed to push religion on students. The government is to be as religiously neutral as possible, and in the past, having school prayer often created a hostile environment for students who weren't of the mainstream religion. If you were the lone class atheist, or even say muslim, and every morning you started off with Christian prayer, you might feel excluded or even harassed if you don't participate. Essentially, if you have school prayer, it kind of puts a target on the back of those who don't participate, leading to exclusion and harassment. The answer was to just remove prayer from schools.

I know that a lot of fundie Christians act like removing prayer from schools was a bad thing and we were persecuting based on religion, but it was just the opposite. Students could pray quietly and privately if they wanted to. And teachers could do it quietly and privately away from students. They just could not, as employees of the government, lead students in religious activity. 

Which is where this case comes in. While the facts of the case were presented as this coach, Kennedy, wanted the right to freely exercise their right to prayer, and the SCOTUS case approached this in a way assuming it was done quietly and privately, but as Kyle Kulinski pointed out, it wasn't, he was doing it rather loudly and publicly and this led to public prayer among students. This is the insidiousness of this new SCOTUS. They basically seem to manipulate the questions they address to get the outcome they want. No longer are SCOTUS judges just acting in a principled way, they are ignoring all judicial principles to do what they want. This is NOT good, and I feel like this new wave of cases is undermining the legitimacy of the court. 

Anyway, this case seems to have effectively destroyed Lemon V. Kurtzman too, which basically applied the all important "Lemon Test", which established THE standard by which we addressed matters of church and state. Essentially, it weighed questions with three prongs:

1) Purpose Prong: legislation should "have a secular purpose."

2) Effect Prong: legisation should "neither advance nor inhibit religion."

3) Entanglement Prong: legislation should not cause "excessive government entanglement with religion." 

And you know what? That's fine. I want to remind people. Those big bad atheists who "hate religion"? Most of them don't wanna outlaw it. They believe in free speech. And even though I'm not an atheist any more, I still believe in separation of church and state just like I did as an atheist. All we want, is to keep peoples freaking religion out of our lives. We don't care if you want to practice your own religion privately. Your relationship with "god", or any other supernatural being, imaginary or not, is yours. But, don't bring that crap into the public square. Don't try to force it on other people. Government action should have a secular purpose. A football coach can pray privately regarding their own wins and losses, no one is denying that. It's engaging in such actions publicly as a government employee that's the problem. 

But according to this new supreme court, that's "free speech" now. 

I admit, the first amendment is vague on these issues. I firmly believe that in cases like these, the establishment and free exercise clause contradict. When dealing with government representatives, some of whom may be religious, that person's right to free expression comes into conflict with the government's job to remain neutral. And there is no one single solution.

However, I believe the lemon framework was correct. if you work for the government, for the best interests of society, you should refrain from practicing your religion publicly in a way that creates a harmful environment that pressures others to participate. The less government and religion entangle, the better. 

But, let's face it, this current SCOTUS is made up by Christian fundamentalist nutjobs. They don't believe in freedom of religion in this way. They effectively want to turn us into a theocracy. I've dealt with them. The way they frame it, and I understood it in my Christian days in the 2000s, was that while the founders didn't want a government church, that doesn't mean that the country shouldn't be guided by Christian principles. They literally believe in revisionist history on the subject. 

The GOP has been gunning for this for 40 years. And it's a shame they managed to succeed in their dying gasp, as this current alignment is expiring, and the country is rapidly secularizing. Seriously, the majority of Americans want legal abortion, and now we're making it illegal. And most Americans seem to support some flavor of religious neutrality in schools, with only a minority supporting an overtly christian perspective. But what are we getting? More prayer in schools. 

America is in a weird place. It seems to me that the people themselves are increasingly favoring liberal positions on a wide variety of issues, both social and economic, but then they vote in ways that support a party identity more than their actual convictions. And because our current political alignment is grossly outdated, with the republicans still largely supporting a more extreme mask off version of the same positions they've held since the 70s and 80s under Nixon and Reagan, and the democrats still representing the moderate politics of people like Joe Biden and Bill and Hillary Clinton, we are in a position where our politicians and institutions are increasingly out of touch with the American people.How long will we tolerate continuing to be governed by the previous generation's politics? How entrenched are our institutions where they don't respond to the will of the people?

That's where we're at. The republican and democratic party represent the last generation's politics that had already hit their expiration date in 2016. But because our institutions are stuck in a certain pattern despite the people increasingly wanting something different, everything is going wrong. People are falling for authoritarian strongmen like Trump. Dems are falling in line voting for old and outdated politicians like Hillary and Biden just to avoid Trump winning. We are not in a good place. And even if the opinions of people are changing, the entrenchment of the two party system, as well as factors like lifetime court appointments and gerrymandering are dragging out our ability to effectively change our country for the better. We are a victim of our own political dysfunction. And we can either rise above it, which is what I've been trying to encourage, or we can end up being tyrannized by it.

If there's any solace, unlike what the democrats freaked out about in 2016, I don't think this SCOTUS will last terribly long. Breyer is retiring, and Biden will replace him. Clarence Thomas is in his 70s. Bush's appointees will also be retiring in the next 10-15 years. Unlike what Hillary fearmongered about, I doubt this will be a 30-40 year thing. More a ~15 year thing. There's going to be a regular influx and outflux of justices. Now, Trump's appointees will be there for a while. They're gen Xers, and are only in their 50s. They could be there until 2050 or so if their health holds up. But...if we can flip other seats, we could easily flip SCOTUS back 6-3 the other way. Or even go back to having a split down the middle court. 

It depends on whether democrats can win elections, which, they kind of have a tendency to crap the bed on. Once again, because our politics represents the last generation's, and no one actually LIKES people like Hillary and Biden outside of the small insular minority that actually shows up and votes democrat. Again, we're victim to our institutions. Instead of our institutions responding to people, the people fear the institutions and threaten them into supporting them. Until the democrats are replaced from within, or from the outside by a third party movement, this crapshow is going to continue. The GOP is in a tailspin and the democrats are too dedicated to their centrist schtick to actually align the country toward their ideas. 

As for whether Hillary won, yes, she would've nominated three justices IF the senate would cooperate, which, given the GOP, they likely wouldn't. I mean they stonewalled obama. They could've held the whole process hostage until one party (probably the GOP given my belief that enthusiasm wins elections) held both the presidency and the senate. If Hillary DID get to nominate people, again, I'm not even sure the republican senate would let her as there's no set number of SCOTUS judges and they could've kept the court empty for years to keep the seats for themselves, yeah, this wouldn't have happened. Does that mean we should've voted for Hillary? Again, I'm not sure it really would've mattered. Hillary would've been an awful mediocre president, and we're all seeing Biden's floundering approval ratings. The GOP would've ended up winning anyway due to the enthusiasm gap in future elections, and we would be in the same boat. 

I'm serious, I really don't think electing Hillary would've done much long term. The historical trends are as such, right now, that as long as the dems push mediocre centrists, the GOP is going to hold a long term electoral advantage. They would hold the system hostage every year until they lose, and then everything that we fear happens anyway. The only unfortunately aspect of 2016 in particular was that Trump managed to nab three justices in one four year term. But if historical trends show anything, we'll have our chance in the future. As I said, I expect the next major wave of retirements around 10-15 years from now. And those will mostly be Bush appointees.If anyone is curious, the median SCOTUS appointment lasts around 16 years, but I imagine appointees in the modern era can last longer, probably closer to 20-30 on average. So yeah, it's a revolving door and I don't expect this majority to be permanent, especially if we have a left led party realignment in the near future (which is the best possible scenario). 

Either way, in the mean time, we're in for a wild ride as the current SCOTUS wreaks havoc and weakens our institutions in ways that could lead to nasty effects in the near future. I hope that progress wins out in the end, and that this whole dumpster fire really is temporary, but for now...we're gonna be dealing with a lot of regressive decisions that fly straight in the face of public opinion. Let's hope the democrats shape up where society is a more positive place by 2032 or so. I estimate this turbulent realignment period will come to an end around 2028-2032, so we'll have a better idea what direction society is really going in by then.

Saturday, June 25, 2022

Explaining to pro lifers why over half the country hates them right now

 So, we already discussed the fall of Roe v Wade when the decision leaked. it happened, it's a done deal, it's officially overturned, and the left is stark raving mad over it. I do have some friends, however, who are pro life, who seem to be getting some level of vitriol over the issue, and being an ex pro lifer, I kind of understand that myself, so rather than just beat the issue to death about how it's bad, it's terrible, blah blah blah, I'm going to try to make this an appeal to the right on this issue. 

The issue of Roe v. Wade isn't about the MORALITY of abortion, but the LEGALITY of it. Now, you might wonder, hey, if I have a moral issue with abortion, why shouldn't it be illegal? Good question. After all, shouldn't morality dictate public policy? Eh, to some degree yes, but to some degree no. You see, legality involves laws that apply to everyone. And morality can be...relatively subjective and controversial on a lot of issues. You can have one set of ethics for your own personal life, but that does not mean those ethics should apply to everyone.

And that's where I think the right misses the plot on the abortion issue. I personally believe, as a libertarian of sorts, that morality should only be legislated when it harms another person. And you might ask, well, doesn't abortion harm another person? Well, it depends what we consider a person to be, and that's where abortion is controversial. 

I would define a person as a being that is generally of the human species that is intelligent and sentient enough to be a moral agent. In order to do harm to someone or something, there had to be a party that harm is being done to. You need some being, to express some sort of will for how it wants itself to be treated. The problem is, that definition is not met when it comes to fetuses. You can argue, okay, born human, a newborn baby, baby. But then you have a fertilized egg which is literally just a single cell, and you get some people calling it "life". And yes, it's alive. But it ain't a moral agent, it has no sentience, it has no will for how it wants itself to be treated. There is no party that's demonstrably being harmed. Meanwhile, take the wills of the mother carrying this fetus into account, or even the father, who themselves may or may not want to be a parent. 

If you believe a fetus is a life for yourself, fine, but the morality and ethics regarding fetuses isn't settled, and it's far from objective. People have different standards for what is acceptable, and different sets of ethics for how to handle these situations. And in questions like this, I feel like it's best to take a libertarian stance. If you don't want an abortion, don't get one. I would never want to force someone to get an abortion, like, say, China would, with their one child policies and the like. But, that doesn't mean you should have a right to impose your views on others.

To make things worse, the logic behind banning abortion is often incredibly shaky. America is a country founded on freedom of religion and separation of church and state. Ideally, public policy is decided based on some sort of secular ethic that can be agreed on to be a basis of morality for all, with religion not supposed to have any role in public morality. Don't get me wrong, you can have a private morality on these issues, but public morality, no. The first amendment states that "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof". Generally speaking, once again, laws are supposed to be for ALL of us. We shouldn't make laws based off of one group imposing their will on another group without good reason, and especially on the basis of religious morality.

Which, sadly, is the basis for the right's push against abortion rights. Catholics were among the first, if I recall, to push the subject, but in the 1970s evangelicals started getting involved, and they wanted to push it based on their religious morality. And that's a no no in American politics. I remember growing up in the 2000s going to religious school they were against it more or less because they wanted America to be a theocracy based on their morals. They would quote bible verses from Jeremiah about how God formed people in the womb and had a special plan for them, while simultaneously ignoring the abortion potion verses. They would base their views on divine command theory that if a baby was conceived it was God's plan and going against that was murder and wrong. And of course, they believed in souls and the like. But, here's the thing. Again, we're supposed to be a secular republic that doesn't base views on religion. We need to base our ideas on morals and values that appeal to everyone. 

A lot of pro lifers will try to shift the arguments to a secular perspective, with them even pushing the "secular pro life" position, which, quite frankly, is relatively weak, and speaks in vague, overreaching philosophical overtures about how a fetus is life and all life is morally relevant, which as you can tell by my outline of how the issue is viewed above, is all very questionable and suspect. Quite frankly, I would accuse anyone seriously proposing these arguments as either not actually understanding the issue well, or potentially trying to sneak a christian worldview under the radar. I know Matt Dillahunty (prominent atheist podcaster) debated a secular pro lifer back in the day and it didn't end well

So let's be honest and get back to what Roe v. Wade actually did. It respected a right to privacy for people, and protected abortion up to 20 weeks after Planned Parenthood v Casey caused the court to develop a standard based on viability. Late term abortions were generally left up to the states, with states often banning the practice somewhere around 22-28 weeks. This basically protected fetuses that could essentially be said to be indistinguishable from premature babies from abortion, while protecting people in the first roughly 2/3 of pregnancy. That's reasonable. it was a nice secular standard for everyone. 

And that's how it should be. Again, keep in mind, this isn't about the morality of it. You can be MORALLY OPPOSED to abortion before 20 weeks. But, you shouldn't be free to tell other people with other morals that they can't get one. Which is where the problem is. You know, there are a lot of people in this country who hold ethical standards against the idea, while wanting it to be legal. Heck, a huge reason I dragged Hillary in 2016 was because of this. She clearly wasn't a strong abortion rights defender rhetorically. Because she didn't believe in it. She was actually personally opposed to it, due to having her own Christian worldviews. This caused her to dance around the issue, talking about how women should have a chance to make the right decision and stuff. It seemed to be this weird weasel word stance of a politician who didn't really support the concept personally, but did legally. Whereas I'd take a stronger position. 

I also knew a girl in college once who grilled me on abortion. She was very pro choice herself, and would be one of those loud liberal times who would be like IF YOURE A MAN YOU SHOULDNT HAVE A SAY. And because I was a christian back then, I ended up being the awkward dude taking pro life positions and getting slammed for it. Then she got knocked up and had the kid and seemed very against the idea personally. 

I mean, that's how a lot of people are. And that's fine. I don't agree with said people, as someone who is a bit stronger on the pro choice side where I really see little reason to have even moral issues before 24 weeks or so, but I understand it. 

The reason you, pro lifer reading this, are getting grilled so hard, and facing so much hostility is because you're basically imposing your morality on people. And they don't like that. You're taking their rights away, forcing them to have a kid they don't want, which can carry serious health consequences, not even getting into the post birth consequences parenthood imposes on people, and they're rightfully pissed at you. I'm, to some extent, rightfully pissed at you. You shouldn't have any right to tell people what to do on the basis of weak secular ethics at best, and blatantly religious ethics at most. 

Even me, I'm starting to wonder, on a spiritual level, if abortion is morally acceptable. My spirituality is weird on the matter. Many sources seem to indicate there's no issue with it and seem to be relatively pro choice, but I did read a story from Jim Tucker, the reincarnation scientist with the University of Virginia, about a child who had past life memories, and who remembered being aborted before being born in her current body. It seemed kind of traumatic to her, if it were true. But, let's be honest, most people don't take science related to reincarnation seriously, nor would I advocate basing public policy on it. So the pro choice argument still stands.

Remember, it's pro CHOICE. A lot of abortion people in both camps tend to mischaracterize the other side a lot. Pro life people think that pro choice people are okay with murder. No, they're okay with giving people a choice. And pro choice people tend to think that pro life people want to just tell women what to do. As an ex pro lifer myself, this is a strawman. Sure, there are some sexist, controlling pro lifers out there, but my primary interest was in the health of the fetus. That and a bunch of divine command theory nonsense I don't believe in any more. 

A lot of pro choicers are actually quite morally opposed to the concept of abortion, they just dont believe in pushing it on people. And again, the reason they're so mad at pro lifers is they DO force it on people. And you don't really have a good reason to do so, if you're a pro lifer. How the heck is someone supposed to respect your opinion, if your opinion forces them to do things against their will that risk their health, wealth, autonomy, and freedom long term? A lot of pro choicers see you guys as trying to turn them into breeding cattle. And I honestly view it that way too. I'm holding back a lot here, trying to be respectful, but I really don't have respect for people who try to push their religious morality on people either. That is unacceptable, and is a huge driver of my social liberalism post 2012. As I always say, I'm not an SJW liberal, I'm a libertarian. And while my ethics aren't based in that "social justice" paradigm as much, they are based on a strong idea of personal liberty and being left alone unless there is a compelling need to make a law to coerce a certain behavior. There is no compelling need here. And the authoritarian types who want to control peoples' decisions need to chill out.

Keep in mind, even in my most anti theist of days, I NEVER wanted to outright ban Christianity. Because that would be wrong, and people have a right to their personal opinion, even if it is blatantly wrong. The problem is when people want to force their opinion on others. And that's what's happening here.

I feel like despite the social justice and "solidarity with women" framing that a lot of libs use, a lot of them are ultimately concerned about peoples' personal liberty, which I can sympathize with. And of course, people are going to be hostile toward those who want to take their rights away. I mean, can you blame them? You're literally the bad guy here. 

And that's where I think I'll leave it. Pro lifers, you might think you're the good guy in your own mind, saving those fetuses and all, but you're not. Your prioritizing hypothetical persons that generally dont fit an accurate description of what a moral agent is, over actual moral agents and taking their freedoms away.

It's a lot like, to put the shoe on the other foot, those wacko environmentalists that think because the rare red tailed turtledove decided to make a nest in your house, that you can't do anything about that because it's an endangered species. Ya know, REEE, WHAT DO YOU MEAN I CANT DO WHAT I WANT TO DO WITH MY PROPERTY?! Welcome to abortion. The house is a woman's body in this case. See the problem?

I'll leave it there.