Friday, September 30, 2022

Discussing American Compass's "Five Deadly Sins of the Left"

 So, I came across The American Compass's "Five Deadly Sins of the left" and found it to be an interesting article, even if the forum it was posted on did not (most libs and lefties I came across seemed to hate it irrationally). Now, to be fair, looking more into the American Compass, they are a right wing organization, with right wing goals, and taking a quick look at other things they posted, I REALLY don't agree with these people, but as a leftie who is unhappy with the existing left as we know it, I did find this to be worth discussing. So this is going to be one of those "quote what they say and I respond" kind of articles.

After 40 years of decline, perhaps it’s time for the Left to try something new.

After all, capitalism has been underperforming as an engine of prosperity since the latter part of the previous century, in terms of both the rate and distribution of growth. But these many decades of rising inequality do not appear to have benefitted the western Left. Mass publics have not seen what the Left has on offer as a plausible cure for what ails their societies and they have voted accordingly.

 Yeah, because the narrative has been controlled by the far right, and the current brand of centrist liberalism is just complicit in allowing the problems that exist to fester. And then many other factions of the left fail to miss the mark for various reasons, which I will be discussing in my response to this article.

It is especially striking that even the Great Financial Crisis of 2008–09 did not spur any realignment of voters toward the Left. In the greatest crisis of capitalism since the 1930s, with widespread suffering and plummeting incomes, forces of the Right benefited the most, particularly Right-populists. Of course, Right-populists are themselves vulnerable, as their significant losses in the 2018 election made clear. In 2020, they face the possible defeat of their standard-bearer, Donald Trump. But such outcomes reflect Trump’s own weaknesses more so than the Left’s ability to govern effectively or sustain a majority coalition over time. On those counts, the record for decades has been poor.

Actually it did. Do they forget that Bernie Sanders existed or that he faced the brunt of blatant media bias and repression to sabotage any such alignment left? I AM a former conservative. The 2008 recession DID shift me left. But, again, the democrats just missed the mark. Their current centrism is problematic, and the other factions often being too far left and dogmatic often fail to miss the mark too. But yes, we almost had a realignment to the left. The problem it was derailed and we ended up with Donald Trump instead, who sucked up all of that populist energy. And the democrats kept their current messaging in opposition to him, which also is extremely dull and boring. 

If Bernie won the democratic primary and went on to win the 2016 election, things would be much different now. Although I suspect the left would fall victim to these sins.

The Left has theories about this failure. One is that the true Left has the right formula but has not been able to make its case, thanks to the pernicious influence of neoliberal incrementalism and the craven politicians who espouse it within the Democratic Party. Another is that the globalized capitalist class has become more powerful and, in alliance with a cleverer and better-organized Right, has bent societies and politicians in its direction, despite the Left’s resistance.  Still another is that, precisely because of this globalization, national Lefts cannot succeed on the level of the nation-state.

 And all of those are accurate. 

But there is a simpler theory: The public just isn’t interested in buying what the Left is selling. No matter how loudly the Left hawks its wares or how heroically it organizes, even as America grapples with a pandemic-driven health and economic crisis, it will not succeed. The Left’s internal diagnoses lead it to believe that in picking up the pieces from this global debacle it can finally gain the elusive support it needs. But while it is certainly possible—perhaps probable—that the Left will win some important elections in the near future, durable mass support for the Left and its goals will not emerge unless and until it radically revamps its offering, abandoning the unhealthy and unpopular obsessions that consume its attention and distract from actually solving problems. In particular, it must find the strength to overcome five deadly sins.

 Eh, a little of A, a little of B. It's hard to get a consistent constituency when most people are casual observers of politics, and there are powerful forces that dominate and shape the public conscious along certain battle lines. 

Quite frankly, the public is ignorant. And I know, a lot of people tend to gasp and drop their monocles when I dare suggest that most people are stupid, but honestly, I kind of think they are. Most are susceptible to mass media campaigns, and literally are as easy to herd as a flock of literal sheep (wake up, sheeple!). And powerful forces bank on this to ensure that the left never really has a breakthrough moment. Even a lot of lefties are complicit, whether by committing these sins, or by being manipulated by corporate media, into sabotaging the left's ascendancy. 

But at the same time, many of these sins are legitimate problems with the left, and need to be addressed. And some of them actually are pushed by these corporate sources to keep us distracted from the real issues that we face. Without further ado, let's look at the deadly sins.

The Sin of Identity Politics

Hahaha yeah. I mean, do I really need to say more. I will say more, but yes, identity politics is cancer. The stuff is divisive in the sense that it pits some demographics against other demographics in a zero sum way to inspire tons of outrage and infighting among groups that otherwise probably wouldnt have problems with one another. it's grievance politics, but instead of the grievance being aimed at something legitimate, it's aimed at the rest of society in a circular firing squad kind of way. While we should be healing from the wounds of the past, identity politics sticks the knife into those wounds, constantly reminding us of everything wrong in the world, and pitting people against each other. When we hear people like Andrew Yang talking about how divided we are and how we're barrelling toward civil war, this stuff is a major root cause of that. Because often times these divisions aren't based on ideas, but one's immutable characteristics and their relation to their place within society. The underprivileged despise the privileged, and the privileged dont even see the problems in the first place and seek to protect their advantages. Instead of stopping racism, I'd argue this stuff amplifies it. It's a complete and utter distraction from the real issues in society.

In discussing the role of the neoliberal establishment in democratic politics, identity politics comes off as a form of "babel moment", where "god" (the democratic party) starts making people speak different languages (divides people based on identity characteristics) causing the people to fight each other and stop progress on whatever offends the offending party so deeply. In the bible it was building a tower to heaven, in democratic party politics, it's coming together to solve problems in a universal way. I absolutely agree that this is a sin, and it is one of the big ones the modern left embraces. 

The first deadly sin is identity politics. This form of politics originated in the entirely just and necessary 1960s movements that sought to eliminate discrimination against and establish equal treatment and access for women, gays, and racial minorities. In evolving to the present day, the focus has mutated into an attempt to impose a worldview that emphasizes multiple, intersecting levels of oppression (“intersectionality”) based on group identification. In place of promoting universal rights and principles, advocates now police others on the Left to uncritically embrace this intersectional approach, insist on an arcane vocabulary for speaking about these purportedly oppressed groups, and prohibit discourse based on logic and evidence to evaluate the assertions of those who claim to speak on the groups’ behalf.

 Yep. To the idea that these ideas started off good and went too far, the idea that we should be thinking more in terms of universal rights and privileges, and that the worldview ultimately rejects reason and evidence and even worse is extremely toxic and militant to those who disagree with it.

Is America really a “white supremacist” society? What does “structural racism” even mean and does it explain all the socioeconomic problems of nonwhites? Is anyone who raises questions about immigration levels a racist? Are personal pronouns necessary and something the Left should seek to popularize? Are transwomen exactly the same as biological women and are those who question such a claim simply “haters” who should be expunged from the Left coalition (as has been advocated in the UK)? This list could go on. What ties the questions together is that they are closely associated with practitioners of identity politics or adherents of the intersectional approach, who deem them not open to debate with the usual tools of logic and evidence. Politically derived answers are simply to be embraced by the Left in the interest of “social justice.”

 Yep, and they're really big on censoring those who disagree, which makes them run afoul of my very pro speech and freedom approach to politics. 

I mean, I admit I dont see rights the same way the right would, but I do very much have a rule utilitarian perspective that approaches things in that way, and I largely support most rights currently existing in society. Even if some should be curtailed slightly and not treated in such an absolutist way, I honestly do believe we need that approach to politics. 

Instead we get this view based on intersectionality, which don't get me wrong, has some value in small doses, but taken to the extremes it is, well, it's extremely toxic.

The Left has paid a considerable price for its increasingly strong linkage to militant identity politics, which brands it as focused on, or at least distracted by, issues of little relevance to most voters’ lives. Worse, the focus has led many working-class voters to believe that, unless they subscribe to this emerging worldview and are willing to speak its language, they will be condemned as reactionary, intolerant, and racist by those who purport to represent their interests. To some extent these voters are right: They really are looked down upon by elements of the Left—typically younger, well-educated, and metropolitan—who embrace identity politics and the intersectional approach. This has contributed to the well-documented rupture in the Democratic Party’s coalition along lines of education and region.

 And I know that this comment pissed off quite a few libs on the forum that I mentioned. "What do you mean doesnt impact most voters lives?" And then they cite statistics of how many people it impacts. I mean, cool, but it does exclude large swaths of the population too. And even among different oppressed groups, there's a lot of infighting among various subgroups who subscribe to social justice ideology. Take the 2008 primary where the people pushing black identity politics were calling Hillary supporters racist and the feminists were calling Obama supporters sexist. Or consider how people scream about JK Rowling being a "TERF", and how her identity politics runs afoul of the trans groups. Or how Dave Chapelle, in being accused of transphobia, pushed black identity politics to play a suffering olympics game of who has it worse.

These politics are just hot garbage. They do tend to alienate people not excluded in these groups. 

And yes, they basically also attack people in such a way where if you dont preach their views (as I do not, even if I am SOMEWHAT sympathetic to them, sometimes), you are considered in league with fascism. Youre either with them or against them. And as such, I end up being "against them" simply because they dont know when to quit and consider people a casual ally rather than an enemy for not agreeing with them 100%. 

And yes, this is why we're seeing a lot of that populist energy that could have supported Sanders, going to Trump. Because there's a lot of common ground between some 2016 populists on the right and left against this stuff, and I've seen a bit of a Bernie to Trump pipeline form in the past few years where a lot of 2016 Bernie or Busters are now Trump supporters. The same thing is, this could have gone differently. But the democrats chose these lines carefully. Again, they're like god with the tower of babel. They chose to disrupt a potentially powerful left wing populist coalition by dividing them with idfentity politics and conquering, which has caused it to fracture every which way since then, with some becoming right wingers, some being absorbed into the democratic party, some becoming increasingly socialist (which we will discuss with the next sin), and others doing things like joining Yang's "Forward" movement (which I was on board with until they abandoned their principles). 

What makes this sin so strange, counterproductive, and perhaps unforgivable, is that popular views on basic issues of tolerance and equality have become much more liberal over the years. The very things the Left was originally fighting for have become less controversial and more accepted—from gay marriage to women’s and racial equality to opposition to discrimination. The Left won.

 Well, we were winning until 2016. But instead, these kinds of grievance politics can never be satisfied, and just keep the left on a treadmill of never being happy, causing them to fight on new and increasingly unpopular battlegrounds, to the point they run out of popular support. And then the movement on the right that forms in response to them actually backlashes, becomes more extreme, allows their crazies back into their movement giving them mainstream voice, and progress is threatened again.

 Which is the threat we now face from the Alt Right. As I said back in 2016, if we didnt feed the troll, the troll would go away. But now the troll is a big existential threat to the left, and actually has power. And this extreme "intersectional" or as I now call it post understanding the times, the "postmodernist" left, isn't in a good shape to combat these threats, because much like the boy who cried wolf too many times, no one takes them seriously. So the more they scream about fascism and the right being an existential threat, the more people become desensitized and don't listen. 

 Of course, that argument was prosecuted in the familiar language of fairness and civil rights; universal principles that have wide appeal and a deep foundation in the nation’s discourse. The same cannot be said for the boutique, academic-derived ideas and language favored by the identity-politics Left, or for the distinctly illiberal attitudes displayed toward dissent from those ideas or use of dis-approved language. Indeed, such emphasis and behavior is antithetical to the universal political and moral principles that have typically animated the Left and underpinned broad coalitions for social change. So long as the Left appears more interested in finding new enemies than in seeking new friends, it will fail to advance its many important priorities.

 Yep, and you know what? It won me over. I never really was racist from the perspective of rights. The left won that in the 1960s before I was born. Gay marriage was won for me, because I stopped caring once I left christianity. I support women's rights, I support minority rights, I support gay rights. 

But that's the thing. I DO have that more conservative rights based system. And I justify it under rule utilitarian reasons as "good". 

But what I don't support are the modern left's solutions to these issues, or even them being the focus to debate at all. Would anyone doubt that income inequality between races would close under a UBI? Or that universal healthcare would ensure that everyone has healthcare? I'm not saying there arent issues related to certain communities (such as the inner cities) that dont need to be addressed too, but as someone who lives in one of those communities, uh, my ideas would help these areas A LOT. 

The Sin of Retro-Socialism

I cant really react to this one until we see their definition, but retro socialism on the surface sounds a lot to me like the left being stuck on old ideas, rather than new ones relative to the times. For example, insisting on this really old antiquated views based on labor politics, rather than the more high tech anti work left I propose. But let's look at what they say about it.

The second deadly sin of the Left is retro-socialism, which demands a complete remaking of the market system to heal the problems of contemporary capitalism. In this view, the ills of the current era are traceable to neoliberalism—faith in the market as the organizing mechanism for society—which compounds underlying problems with the capitalist system itself. The retro-socialists contend that the public is so sick of stagnating living standards, inequality, and periodic crises that it will (eventually) embrace their complete socialist overhaul of the system. This mistakes the public’s genuine discontent with current outcomes for a desire to abandon capitalism entirely. Voters are indeed dissatisfied with the current model of capitalism, but what they want is a different, better capitalism, not “socialism.”

 Uh, yeah, this merits some discussion. He seems to be talking more about the Bernie Sanders type left than anything. And I kind of get it. Focusing on the terminology of socialism is alienating. Theres a lot of stigmas there and much of what Bernie proposed wasn't socialism anyway.

On the other hand, in response to the neoliberals organizing to keep the left out of power, a lot of people who otherwise would be unhappy with more gradual changes have hardened to become LITERAL socialists, who believe the system is so corrupt literally the only solution is socialism. This is alienating, even to a passionate critic of the current system like me, who does support reasonable "medium scale change" (to differentiate between large scale change to another economic system a la socialism, and also small scale change that focuses on band aids like the neolibs support). I mean, I might want things, UBI, universal healthcare, free college, but I don't want "socialism." I just want a form of libertarian social democracy that combines traditional social programs like Europe would have with UBI. But this isn't enough for socialists, because "It IsNt SoCiAlIsM". Well, who cares. Screw socialism. It's an extremely overrated goal not worth pursuing. Id rather get changes that impact me positively within the current system. 

The American Left is mostly careful to put the qualifier “democratic” in front of “socialism” to distinguish it from the authoritarian, command-economy socialists of yesteryear. And for many who use the term, their idea of socialism seems closer to a traditional social-democratic mixed economy than a radically different system that would somehow do away with profits and markets. So why call it socialism, a term that has all kinds of unpleasant associations and does imply a replacement of capitalism? Why not call it “people’s capitalism” or “democratic capitalism” or “the advanced mixed economy” or whatever?

 Yeah this is a branding issue that Bernie had in general. He had good ideas, and didn't support shifting to a form of socialism that's bad, but calling it socialism is alienating. He would have been better off calling it social democracy or cloaking it in FDR's second bill of rights, because that's exactly what it is. 

By grasping nostalgically at revolutionary rhetoric, the Left sets the bar high for public embrace of what might otherwise be quite popular policy ideas, from single-payer health insurance to free college to a job guarantee. Generally, it is not a selling point for voters that your policies are a step along the road to socialism. Moreover, belief in the viability of replacing capitalism and the market encourages unrealistic thinking about policies that might work within a market system and misestimation of how quickly they might be adopted. This tendency has not gone unnoticed by voters, who are pragmatically interested in what is feasible and workable and have no ideological commitment to a different system. The socialist label and terminology undercut efforts to persuade voters that the Left’s agenda can work.

 Yeah, I actually agree with this. Notice how despite this being a right wing article they're not focusing on the substance, even acknowledging these ideas COULD be popular. They are instead rejecting extremist rhetoric, which has caused some since 2016 to become more extreme, and others to reject Sanders' vision entirely. 

I have my own critiques with Sanders himself, which should be known, but I still support most of his ideas. But the "socialism" stuff has cooled on me significantly. I didn't think the branding issue was much of a big deal in 2016, but given how the discourse evolved, it is, and I've shifted away from the "socialist left" as a result, as I clearly have different ideological views than they do. 

The Sin of Catastrophism

Here they seem to be focusing on how they use climate change as an existential crisis in order to push a radical agenda. And we actually have studied this relatively recently on this blog as I waded into the climate change issue myself. But it's not just that, it's everything, and how the left are turning into the boy who cried wolf.

The third deadly sin is catastrophism. From the final crisis of capitalism to the inevitabilities of war and fascism, the Left often extends systemic critiques to claims that the Big Meltdown is just around the corner and can be prevented only if the Left comes to power and radically restructures the system. Among many current iterations of this catastrophism, the most prominent one by far concerns climate change.

 Yeah, agree on all fronts, and if you notice, i tend to have a lot less of this in my politics. I was largely quiet through the Trump years on the threat Trump posed, only really speaking out when January 6th happened, and I felt a need to actually say something to highly how serious of a threat that this is. And with climate change, yeah, the left does abuse the extent of the issue to promote their agenda, as we'll discuss as this sin is explained further.

There are exceptions of course, but the Left’s dominant strand of thinking sees climate change as a trend that will roast the planet and wipe out human civilization unless drastic action is taken very, very soon. For most on the Left, the apocalyptic pronouncements of Greta Thunberg and Extinction Rebellion are more plausible than arguments that a warming climate is a problem susceptible to reform and better policy, addressable through adaptation and technological innovation. It is assumed that we are headed for, in David Wallace-Wells’ phrase, “the uninhabitable Earth.” When green activists claim we have five or, at most, ten years to solve the problem by achieving net-zero carbon emissions, most on the Left nod in agreement.

....yeah. I mean, don't get me wrong, climate change is a very serious threat, and we are at risk of destroying our civilization long term if we do not act on it, but yeah, the whole "we need this massive bloated green new deal by 2030 or we're doomed" thinking is a bit overblown. This is really an issue that we have to solve over the course of the next several decades. And the consequences won't be fully realized for potentially centuries. While I'm not advocating complacency, the left does use alarmism to push an agenda, as the green new deal is more or less a front for a massive jobs program, as well as radically changing how we live in ways that are out of touch with most Americans. Like, leftists view these really dense green communities where we all take public transportation to work, and it just...ain't...happening. We need to work with what we have, and change more in ways Americans are largely willing to accept. We can accomplish the bulk of the work by say, 2050 if we act diligently, but we dont need to SOLVE the problem completely by 2030, and doing so would be exponentially more expensive and require alternations most Americans wouldn't accept. 

Such a rapid transition of global energy systems is a fairy tale, making the situation look hopeless instead of solvable. That is a real liability. Voters want to hear how problems can be solved—not told they’re doomed unless obviously impractical steps are taken. And it doesn’t help that the Left’s version of the steps that must be taken includes a raft of unrelated social programs that would be nice to have but don’t do anything about climate change (see, for instance, the Green New Deal proposed in Congress). Nor does it help that obviously necessary components of a clean energy program like nuclear power are ruled out because, well, people on the Left don’t like nuclear power.

 Exactly, longer time scale needed. And for the most part the green new deal is a front for other stuff. And yeah the left is weirdly purist on nuclear power, which would certainly help the issue more than most solutions would. But yeah, given my own brand of left, this article is mostly preaching to the choir. And it should be noted I'm left, but I'm a different kind of left. 

None of this makes sense as either a political or policy approach. Climate change is, in fact, a solvable problem, but it will take some time (2050 is a reasonable target for net-zero global emissions) and massive technological innovation rather than a quixotic attempt to remake the global economy in just a few years. In the meantime, adaptations to unavoidable rises in temperature will be necessary, but these do not require turning the world upside down nor will they condemn billions of people to mass migration and death. The Left has plenty to fight for here, but the political support they need will not materialize so long as they continue their embrace of catastrophism.

 I agree, and having studied the issue as of late, I think the 2050 timeline is more realistic. And again, notice how this article isn't attacking the left's valid arguments on these causes, mostly focusing on the horrid framing the left does to promote its causes, which tend to alienate people. 

The Sin of Growthphobia

Eh, I'm mixed on this one. Mainly because Im not a super pro growth leftie. Don't get me wrong, I wouldnt consider myself as having growth-phobia, but I feel like most camps left and right focus on growth fetishism. Like growth above all else. Ignoring anything like trying to achieve a new work life balance, or shifting away from work at all. If you do get this on the traditional left, it often takes the form of anarchism, which more or less advocates for an abolition of current ways of life and a return to monke. Which...I don't support. I always try to balance whatever aspirations I have with reality, and I dont advocate for anything that would "degrow" the economy.

Still, I find actual anti growthers to be minorities on the left. Most people on the left are either bog standard neolibs, or if they're more in the left wing sanders camp, they're proponents of MMT, which is very pro growth (and pro labor, part of the reason they oppose UBI is because they dont see it as promoting growth under their own paradigm, instead opting for jobs programs). So this doesn't seem to be a huge issue for me. Still, let's hear what he has to say.
 
The fourth deadly sin is growthphobia: discarding the goal of faster growth in the rush to address economic inequality. While reducing inequality is a laudable and essential goal, both through market reforms that generate more equal outcomes (“predistribution”) and tax-and-transfer programs (“redistribution”), it is counterproductive to lose sight of the need for faster growth as well. Growth, particularly productivity growth, is what drives rising living standards over time and the Left presumably stands for the fastest possible rise in living standards.
 Eh, not really, this is where I disagree with the author. Here's the thing. We've been told for decades that higher growth would lead to a tide that raises all boats, but instead, we get stagnating living standards for the bottom 80% and accelerating inequality between them and the top 20%, and particularly the top 0.1%. And while the left could afford to be a lot less punitive of the rich for its own sake, yeah I would literally reject the growth paradigm somewhat to ensure better inequality for all. What's the point of all of this growth if people are still struggling for the essentials 200 years after capitalism started? Why do we still have hungry? Why do we still have homeless? Why are healthcare costs out of control? I'm sorry but all of this "growth" rings hollow for me in a country in which we still struggle with systemic poverty and inequality. I literally couldn't care about our quarterly GDP numbers if I'm grinding in service economy hell and struggling to meet my needs, ya know?

I dont care if we grow a little slower if it means people are better taken care of. Ya know?

Faster growth also makes easier the achievement of the Left’s other goals. Hard economic times typically generate pessimism about the future and fear of change, not broad support for more democracy and social justice. In contrast, when times are good, when the economy is expanding and living standards are steadily rising for most of the population, people see better opportunities for themselves and are more inclined toward social generosity, tolerance, and collective advance.
I dont disagree but keep in mind what I said. I couldnt care less about growth if I, or many others, aren't feeling it. I aint feeling it. I just ain't. And as such I am one of those pessimistic people. Literally my entire platform derives from what I see as solving the problems we as Americans face. And real progress comes from the left and redistribution. Not this pro growth "tide that raises all boats" mentality.

Some resistance to growth may derive from an assumed growth-equity tradeoff, but evidence has strengthened over time that high inequality regimes (such as the one we live in today) have a negative effect on growth. We have gotten the worst of both worlds: sluggish growth and high inequality. A more equal society is fully compatible with a higher growth society—the proverbial “win-win.”
 You need a more left wing pro equality paradigm to get more growth, paradoxically. When people have money to spend, it actually expands the economy by stimulating more economic activity, creating jobs (ew, but hey I'm speaking their language), and more stuff to go around.

Income inequality has been so high in the past few decades growth is actually stagnating because people dont have the money to spend. And if people dont have the money to spend, the economy doesn't grow. To be fair, right now our economy is the opposite, with supply chain issues slowing growth and causing high inflation, but under traditional economic times, yes, we've been too inflation conscious at the point it's causing increasing inequality and living standards.

A UBI for example has been considered a form of trickle up economics, where giving people money to spend stimulates demand increasing the economy. And MMT advocates also argue for policies (like a jobs program, ew) to create more stuff and stimulate demand in the same way. 

And the worst thing is, I see more pro growth rhetoric under these paradigms than anti growth rhetoric. it's only extreme anti work (even by my standards) anarchists and extreme environmentalists who argue completely AGAINST growth. I admit, I tend to be a bit less pro growth than most lefties due to my anti work mindset, but I still advocate for some level of balance and would advocate for SOME growth. I just dont believe that we should focus exclusively on growth at the expense of everything else.

In truth, the Left’s lack of interest in growth reflects not only an understandable and laudable focus on unequal distribution, but also a general suspicion that the fruits of growth are poisoned. Growth encourages the accumulation of unneeded material possessions and a consumerist lifestyle rather than a truly good life, the thinking goes. And, worse, it is literally poisoning the Earth, driving the climate crisis that is hurtling the human race toward doom.
 I'm mixed on this one. On the one hand the ex conservative in me understands exactly what he's saying. The left does at times use alarmism to try to push ways of life on people that they wouldn't accept, and many of their goals are much different than those of most Americans. I understand that we need some sort of balance, hence why I seek to work with the current system and achieve more gradual shifts in my direction. The left seemingly does want to push degrowth on people at times, at least some segments of it. 

But on the other hand, while we can try to solve climate change within the pro growth paradigm, I have trouble arguing against the left on whether how we're living is sustainable long term. And I honestly also am a critic of the work-consume paradigm, and do believe that a good life would be better had if we moved away from this stuff, if only a little.

of course, that's the difference between me and the leftists in general in this article. The author is pointing to the extremists, whereas I tend to support many of their goals, but in less extreme forms. I support most of Sanders agenda, but I'm not a socialist. I support solving climate change, but not within the green new deal paradigm or its alarmism. I support stopping the far right, but i dont buy into the kneejerk reactionary rhetoric of the far left on that matter. I literally support a shift away from GDP and obsession with growth, and support people working less, but I dont support forcing degrowth or extreme changes on people. I even support some social justice goals, i just think the identity politics crap is crazy and extreme. I've been a critic of this in recent years, all while being on the left. 

Still, with this one I have to disagree with the author somewhat. I would like to get rid of the growth fetishism. That isnt synonymous with being anti growth or pro degrowth, but I do think that we should shift away from being as pro growth as we are. Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of a cancer cell after all.

This has led many on the Left to argue that our capitalist economy based on growth must be replaced with a “degrowth” economy focused on simple, healthy communities; efficient resource use; and the elimination of wasteful consumerism. If that means no or negative economic growth, so be it.
 I wouldnt oppose this in more moderate forms, but yeah, completely moving away from such a mentality is problematic. Capitalism and its pro growth mentality are the engine of our prosperity in modern times. It is on that prosperity that I feel that we are able to argue for my own ideas and policies. I don't support a complete abandonment of those goals. I just seek balance with other priorities. 

Naomi Klein, author of the hugely influential 2015 book, This Change Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate, advocates in a New Statesman essay for “radical and immediate de-growth strategies in the US, EU and other wealthy nations.” She continues:

[W]e happen to have an economic system that fetishizes GDP growth above all else. . . . The bottom line is that an ecological crisis that has its roots in the overconsumption of natural resources must be addressed not just by improving the efficiency of our economies but by reducing the amount of material stuff we produce and consume.

 Current green icon, teenager Greta Thunberg, has joined the degrowth chorus.

I mean, they're not entirely wrong. I mean how does the right tend to combat the idea that we are sowing the seeds of our demise? Our way of life is like a cancer on this planet, and one that if not controlled will metastasize and kill our host. Which will kill us too. How can we support infinite growth on a finite planet? Technology can help, but it only goes so far.

I mean, again, I dont support moving entirely away from growth, I dont wanna return to monke and I tend to crap on "leftists" a lot for being too radical at times. 

But I feel like the author ignores the problems with capitalism that the left is trying to raise here. 

Degrowth is probably the worst idea on the Left since communism. People want more, not less; they don’t object to growth, they object to where the benefits of growth have mostly gone. In short, they want abundance, not societally-mandated scarcity. And not only will people not accept artificial scarcity, but also the transition to a green economy is really only possible in a high-growth context, where the requisite (and expensive) technological innovation and infrastructure development—as, for example, in a Green New Deal—can be supported.
 Eh, sure, but people haven't benefitted from "growth" in decades, other than technological advancement. And as I said I couldnt care less if we grow if we still have systemic poverty and resource denial, like we do.

I do think the left goes wrong in wanting to mandate these things though. Like I ain't a hard core pro growth guy, but my solutions would be more market oriented and voluntary, rather than mandated. 

One thing I will say is they're right in that we can only really move to a society with green tech through growth. More technology is more growth. It means we can do more with less, and is the biggest driver of growth. And as you know, I'm very pro technology in that sense. I want technology to replace human labor in the long term after all. 

What is true for publics in advanced countries is doubly true for those living in the developing world. The radical drop in extreme poverty worldwide, from 44 percent in 1990 to under 10 percent today, has been widely noted. Less well-known, a Brookings Institution study has shown that the global middle class has doubled in size from about a quarter of the world’s population in 2000 to just over half today. These changes are attributable to economic growth, even if the benefits of economic growth in developing countries, as in developed countries, have been distributed unequally. It is highly implausible that these populations want less growth when they’ve already benefitted so much from the growth they have seen. What they really want is more and more equally-distributed growth and, ultimately, the lives of abundance they see many people around the world already living.
 Sure, but they're trying to grow out of poverty. We've been grown out of poverty for a good century or more. And UBI has been viable for at least 50 years. But let's not confuse some global south country trying to get enough just to go around with an advanced country like the US. For us, growth is arguably overrated.

The Sin of Technopessimism 

Ugh, yeah, the left has this weird anti technology bend to it as a result of its anticapitalism and obsession with work and labor. Just look at how Thomas Frank and those types of libs were so critical of "big tech" and how old and outdated their policies were.
The Left’s final deadly sin is technopessimism. In the 21st century, the Left has become distinctly unenthusiastic about the potential of technology, tending to see it as a dark force to be contained rather than a force for good to be celebrated. This is very odd indeed. Almost everything people like about the modern world, including relatively high living standards, is traceable to technological advances and the knowledge embedded in those advances. From smart phones, flat-screen TVs, and the internet, to air and auto travel, to central heating and air conditioning, to the medical devices and drugs that cure disease and extend life, to electric lights and the mundane flush toilet, technology has dramatically transformed people’s lives for the better. It is difficult to argue that the average person today is not far, far better off than her counterpart in the past. As the Northwestern University economic historian Joel Mokyr puts it, “the good old days were old but not good.”
 Yeah I also see this as baffling as I said above. Technology is what drives growth and makes a lot of my own brands of left wing politics feasible. I dont support a return to monke. I support modernity. I just dont support working our lives away despite technological advancements allowing us not to, or alternatively pursuing growth and advancement to a point it's not sustainable and will eventually lead to ecological collapse. Goals which I presume this guy is not very sympathetic with based on the above.

But yeah, I also agree with him that the left's weird anti tech bend is bizarre to me. 

Economists debate endlessly about the exact mechanisms connecting technology to growth, and about the social and institutional conditions that must be met for technology to maximize its effect on growth, but at the end of the day the growth we have seen—and the living standards the mass public enjoys—would simply not have been possible without the massive breakthroughs and continuous improvements we have seen in the technological realm.’
I agree. Most gains in GDP per capita are due to technological advancement. The reason the average worker is 3x more efficient than one who worked at the end of WWII is technological growth. The 2020s simply have more advanced tech than the 1950s did. And the 1950s had more advanced tech than the 1800s. And before the 1800s, we had virtually nothing.

Given all this, one would expect the Left to embrace techno-optimism rather than technopessimism. If the goal is improving people’s lives, rapid technological advance is surely something to promote enthusiastically. But the Left has been lukewarm at best about the possibilities of new and better technologies, leaving techno-optimism to the libertarian-minded denizens of Silicon Valley. As British science journalist Leigh Phillips has observed:

Once upon a time, the Left . . . promised more innovation, faster progress, greater abundance. One of the reasons . . . that the historically fringe ideology of libertarianism is today so surprisingly popular in Silicon Valley and with tech-savvy young people more broadly . . . is that libertarianism is the only extant ideology that so substantially promises a significantly materially better future.

And strangely enough that association with silicon valley is also why the left rejects it in favor of being stuck in the 19th century or something. I'm more in line with the left of the 1960s that made stuff like Star Trek and the Jetsons. Somewhere along the way, the left lost its way and instead of embracing tech solving problems, they see tech as a problem with capitalism, and that we need old school labor politics and socialism as opposed to something based on technology and working less. My anti work goals are built on the back of technology. I love tech. I celebrate it. We can't make my ideas work if not for tech.
 
 So yeah, for once, back to preaching to the choir.

There are two main reasons for the Left’s ambiguous relationship to technology. One is directly related to the sin of growthphobia: The Left tends to underestimate the importance of economic growth, believing incorrectly that its social objectives are achievable with slow or even no growth. That leads naturally to an underestimation of the importance of technological change, since one of its chief attributes is promoting growth.
In a sense, yes. This is a problem. The left is also just stupidly dogmatic in its policy prescriptions, with the best of them being stuck in the 1930s, and the worst in the 1800s. But yeah, the degrowth people tend to hate tech, and see us as returning to monke, while I see us doing more with less and embracing tech.

The left also has a labor boner where the idea of using tech to do away with work forces a complete rethink of their political ideology, as they see their labor power as essential to curb the power of the capitalists, and that if fewer people worked, then we wouldnt be able to push for more equitable distribution of goods. This isnt as big of a problem for me because 1) I recognize the limits of my anti work aspirations and would support rationing work available along the lines of "full employment" among voluntary participants and 2), i largely support using the state to redistribute stuff, rather than union power. 

And while maybe in the long long term labor will be eradicated to the extent that the only viable path forward will be socialism, we are nowhere near that part of history yet, and I see it as a hypothetical question for future generations to explore.

Second, and worse, many on the Left tend to regard technological change with dread rather than hope. They see technology as a force facilitating inequality rather than growth, destroying jobs rather than leading to skilled-job creation, turning consumers into corporate pawns rather than information-savvy citizens, and destroying the planet in the process. We are far, far away from the Left’s traditional attitude, which welcomed technological change as the handmaiden of abundance and increased leisure, or, for that matter, from the liberal optimism that permeated the culture of the 1950s and ‘60s with tantalizing visions of flying cars and obedient robots.
 Yep, I kind of just discussed this. Again, its their ideological rigidness and being stuck in the past. 

The Left’s technopessimism places yet another obstacle between its vital core message and ordinary voters. Voters know rapid technological change is a central and inevitable part of their world and they greatly enjoy many of the benefits that technological advances produce. Again, what they want is more and better, not a lot of tut-tutting about the dark side of progress and gloom about the future. To disparage technology in today’s world simply robs voters of hope. That is not a position the Left can afford to adopt.
 Yep, this is a grave sin of the modern left in my opinion, and a huge reason I've had a falling out with much of the far left in recent years. Just look at how they treated Yang's Human Centered Capitalism. Instead of being heralded as the solution to our problems, and in line with what I had wanted all along, the left really showed its luddite side and inability to adjust to the present day. The left is just stuck in a time warp of eras past, and I dont see how anyone can seriously support their ideas sometimes, even if the status quo is garbage.

Whose Left? 

Not coincidentally, these deadly sins all emerge from a highly educated, intellectually influential part of what economist Thomas Piketty has termed “the Brahmin Left.” These ideas are what these individuals believe, but not what most voters believe, hence the difficulties of forging a mass, durable Left.

 Actually, this is a little clunky to me. The "Brahmin left" are highly educated neolibs obsessed with identity politics and superficial politics. Thomas Frank attacked the Brahmin left in "listen liberal" while committing several of these sins himself. 

Regardless, there is a disconnect between the brahmin left and the populist left, but this article has shown me that both strains of the left have issues. The brahmin left is actually very out of touch, and obsessed on performative politics and not solving problems. But they are pro growth and pro tech. But they're just basically moderate right wingers who only pass as left because of how far the actual right has gotten. 

But yes, the more populist left has issues of its own, committing several of the sins above. Heck, most of this article is directed more at the far left than the brahmin left. Still, both have issues.
 
 The solution is obvious: advocate for what most voters want and believe; don’t advocate for what they don’t want or believe. The overwhelming majority of voters oppose discrimination and support universal values of equal opportunity and fair treatment for all. The overwhelming majority of voters believe inequality is too high and that the wealthy have too much power and fail to promote the common good. The overwhelming majority of voters believe a clean energy transition is necessary and want it pursued effectively. The overwhelming majority of voters oppose the way growth has been distributed but want higher living standards and technological progress.
 Sure, and I'd agree with at least four of the sins discussed being serious problems with the left. The only one I have an issue with is growthphobia, given how society fetishizes GDP growth above all else, but I do acknowledge some lefties become too anti growth, whereas I seek balance. 

But yes, the left has a major branding problem. The identity politics must go. The socialism most go. The alarmism must go. The technophobia must go. And the apprehension of growth must be moderated. The left has a lot to offer, but they're too wrapped up in all of these dogmatic isms lately. And many of them are alienating and do drive people away, including me.

I know this article was very poorly recieved by the lefties who read it, with them being very argumentative and dismissive of the arguments, but honestly, as a more independent leftie, I agree with 80% of it or so. And I have a long history of pointing out these problems, even if I am on the left. This article, unlike most trash from this site, seems very much constructive, and some of its advice should be taken seriously.

A Left that promotes universal values, a better model of capitalism, practical problem-solving on climate change, and an economy that delivers abundance for all has a great opportunity. But first the Left has to decide if it wants to be popular or Brahmin, only one of which is likely to succeed in a democracy. That is a debate not currently happening.
 Again, the populist left commits several of these sins. The brahmin left and the populist left arent the same kind of left, and they arent necessarily in agreement with each other. But yeah, I largely agree with this. I would like to see the left focus a bit more on a direction of working less though. I mean, to go back to that techno utopian vision the left used to have, the Jetsons worked like 9 hours a week and mostly doing BS jobs pushing buttons. Most real work was full on automated. Star Trek achieved post scarcity. I mean, thats the kind of left we should be embracing, and I feel like that was lost.

Still, im not fully "pro growth". Im not "anti growth" either, but I do think growth needs to be balanced with environmental priorities, and with making work more voluntary and achieving better work life balance. 

All in all though? Good article. I dont agree fully with it, but as I always say on here if I can find 80% agreement with something, that's generally a good thing. And I would say I roughly agree with 80% of this article, only having some particular issues with a handful of topics, mostly related to this guy's growth fixation. Even then, I acknowledge my ideas may be unpopular. After all, I have noted that most Americans seem to feel okay with coercing their fellow citizens to work crappy jobs in de facto slavery conditions to produce affordable middle class luxuries for them. And I find this distasteful. So I won't concede that point. But other than that, good article.

Thursday, September 29, 2022

Biden, Bernie, or Yang?

 So, this is a combination of two different concepts. I was going to write a rematch of Bernie vs Yang ideologically after reading Our Revolution, but then I saw one of my favorite forums I love to hate on having a Biden vs Bernie debate with a lot of the "center left" neolib types being pro Biden for all the normal terrible reasons. So I figured why not approach all three traditions simultaneously and rank them? After all, all three have different and distinct ideologies. And while I would probably lean mostly Yang on paper, he does have some glaring weaknesses, and I do have better things to say about the others (well, mostly Bernie). And given I've distanced myself from bernie sufficiently over the past 2 years, I feel more able to approach this objectively. For the record, I'm mostly going to be discussing Yang in the context of his 2020 run, not his substanceless Forward party as it exists. Dude used to have a fairly based platform, so that is my goal.

Social issues

All in all, I find none of the three peoples' ideas particularly objectionable. I'd probably say I lean most toward Yang since he seemed progressive without the wokeism, and let's face it, i've developed quite a distaste for wokeism over the past...8 years or so. To be fair, never been a fan of it, but for a while I tolerated it, and understanding the theory I tried to be sympathetic and work with them. But...let's face it, it's taken over the left like a disease, and I would say Yang's moderate approach was solid. He largely addressed the issues, but didn't lay it on thick. And that's what I want. yang was, after all, trying to reach people in the midwest who not be orthodox conservatives. 

Bernie was a lot like Yang in 2016, but due to the obnoxious Pharasaic display of public righteousness that the centrist wing of the party put on, Bernie got crushed, so bernie got a lot more woke in 2020. To be fair, he always believed that stuff, and I'm going to respect that, I dont begrudge him for it. But he did lay it on a bit too thick to try to win over POC and it still failed despite this, because wokeism is a lot like being in the cool kids club in middle school. Youre either in or you're not, and who decides you're in is largely an insufferable circlejerk that excludes the socially awkward like me, despite our intentions. Anyway, I dont really blame or begrudge him for it, he was trying to play the game. And I dont mind left wing positions otherwise, I just hate a hyperfixation on this stuff. But the culture of the democratic party forces it these days, so he did at least try to bend to win over those voters.

Still, I do have to say I'm not really hardcore on "leftism" socially. The culture around Bernie, while not necessarily the same as performative SJWism, is adjacent to it, and the purity testing is obnoxious. A lot of leftists just dont know how to moderate their positions at all or package them in ways that are accessible. On illegal immigration they might be like No HuMaN iS IlLeGaL, while someone like Biden, or Yang would be more willing to bend. Idk, I just like the more moderate bend on social issues at tiems these days. it should be noted none of these guys are right wing, we're really just debating shades of left wing social ideology. But yeah. Bernie tends to be a bit too extreme for me. 

Biden is weird. He combined some level of moderation, which I dont mind, as moderate lefties still get the sausage made, but he does lay on the wokeism kind of thick to pander to POC, blah blah blah. Dems are obnoxious at that. And Biden, being the old out of touch dude that he is, sometimes ends up being cringe with it. Remember how if you dont support him "you aint black"? Idk, some real "democratic plantation" vibes to bring a right wing take to the democratic party on race relations and social issues energy right there. 

So, idk, Biden just combines some of the worst impulses with democratic party politics into his views. Leans hard into the identity politics stuff, while being cringey with it, but you know what? Remember what I said earlier about middle school cliques. Dude is an honorary cool kid for some reason. Never mind that Bernie started his political career getting arrested protesting for civil rights. 

The thing is, Biden represents the establishment brand of democratic politics. Bernie and Yang were independents trying to bring new energy into the democrats, and as an ex conservative who jumped over during 2012, their views are always going to appeal to me more than someone like CLinton or Biden, who represented the worst possible vision of the party, the kind of stuff that alienated and kept me conservative growing up. Bernie was a rural independent who was a bit more chill on guns, a bit less obnoxious on race (while still walking the walk), and Yang was a relatively apolitical democrat previous to 2016 who started his career trying to win over rust belt voters unhappy with the democrats. 

So honestly, someone like Yang or Bernie would always appeal to me more.

That said, if I had to rank them:

1) Yang

2) Sanders

3) Biden

Foreign policy issues

This time I'll start with Biden. And I'm going to say it. I LIKE Biden on foreign policy. Here's the thing. I am a moderate on foreign policy. The right to me is too crazy aggressive and have a school yard bully attitude toward everything, and the left is so anti war that they're ltierally simping for Russia right now. We need a middle ground, and Biden is it. He supports defending American interests abroad while still being progressive and ending the wars. He literally got us out of Afghanistan, after Obama got us out of Iraq. At the same time, he's been tough on Russia and supportive of Ukraine. I'm not hard to please on foreign policy, my main goals are defend our interests but avoid unnecessary entanglements that put people in harm's way. And Biden gets that balance perfectly. Yes, the left will scream about how he's supportive of some random conflict that it's immoral we're in, and will get obnoxiously self righteous about it, and the right will make weird appeals to Biden being "weak" never mind the fact that they're either 1) batcrap insane and invade countries for dumb and unjust reasons or 2) end up being as isolationist as the far left does. But you know what? Biden gets it right. He just does.

Bernie on the other hand, is a bit too dovish for me. To be fair, I respect his balls sometimes. He was against the Iraq war when no one else was post 9/11 hysteria. He was the sane voice in the room vs the far right, and honestly, I gotta be honest, I have to respect that. So there is something to be said about Bernie's politics and political courage (I'll touch on personalities later on). Still, is he right because his philosophy was right or because he happened to be right in that circumstance? Probably the latter. While centrist democrats like Hillary and Biden did go along with it in a disgraceful display of triangulation and reinforcing the right's hegemony over our politics, Bernie really was the lone leftie rejecting it. But leftism isnt really the answer either, and I generally respect the Obama/Clinton/Biden paradigm on this more. Leftism can actually be very much a detriment. Let's not change our entire philosophy because we made one mistake at the time. That's how the right got so overbearing in the first place. "Grr, Carter weak, Reagan strong, strongness good". It's like that but in reverse. Just because reagan offset carter fairly well, doesnt mean that reagan's philosophy was good. Just because Bernie offset Bush's excesses doesnt mean his view is correct either. We need a happy medium.

Yang seems to largely have a more Bidenesque medium on foreign policy, but who knows. it was never his strong suit and his expertise was subject. Still, he did seem to be the kind of person to learn on the job and id imagine he would be sufficient at the job.

All things considered, I have to say:

1) Biden

2) Yang

3) Sanders

Economics

Economics is more my bread and butter with politics these days and where I have the most passionate views. In a sense my views are a weird mix of Bernie and Yang's, probably more Yang at this point, but I do respect Bernie's progressive flair and have a hint of that in my politics.Still, the three candidates did represent different schools of thought. 

Biden was the status quo guy. He ran on nothing will fundamentally change. He ran to the center, but was dragged somewhat left kicking and screaming by Bernie. Still, despite this he hasnt accomplished much of note in office, and the namesake "Bare Minimum Biden" exists for a reason. He does have some working class street cred and pushes the whole "work = dignity" mantra, which i find offputting, but meh. He does have some moderate views I like. I like Build back better, and his policies like mild student loan forgiveness, the inflation reduction act, child tax credit, and his proposed public option plan are better than literally nothing. Still, let's face it, not a fan of Biden.

Bernie was the gold standard for me in 2016, but only because a pro UBI candidate did not exist yet. His leftism is the real deal, and he basically would've brought social democracy to America, but much like Biden, he lays on the jobism too thick. His book really laid it out to me in a more visceral way, and I found it extremely offputting as a non jobist. 

Still, he would do some good things for America. His solutions are expensive as hell and I'm not sure all of them would work my preference for UBI, but his platform is what it is. Single payer healthcare is based, but expensive (and I could settle for a decent public option). Free college and student debt forgiveness is based, and WOULDN'T break the bank at all. He has a decent housing policy. And while his green new deal is overkill and mostly a wasteful jobs program, it would get results. I just have different priorities than him, and build my own platform around UBI, requiring some compromises, while he goes full on in favor of this jobs program of his. 

Yang has a very based ideology, and I found it refreshing to hear someone actually say the things I've been saying for years. Sure, his math is a bit fuzzy on the UBI, but eh, his plan isn't totally unworkable. Given he's the only one who supports (or supported) the idea, he was worth supporting. But, he did tend to be a bit weaker on other policies. While he started off as being pro medicare for all in a single payer sense, he flipped to a public option, then stopped talking about the issue at all. Yang really does have an issue with that. He had a more moderate free college policy akin to Biden's, although his climate plan was stronger than Biden's and reaches the sort of middle ground I'd want. 

All things considered, I have to go:

1) Yang

2) Sanders

3) Biden

Character

Bernie, Biden, and Yang are from different backgrounds. Biden has been in the senate for a while. he started his political career in the 1970s and has always been a wheeler and dealer. He's the kind of dude who values compromise and back room deals in smoke filled rooms. While it's said for every problem to arise in the past 40 years theres a video of bernie sanders trying to stop it, I feel like with Biden, he had his hand in creating it. But the dude ended up going somewhat political chameleon in 2020 and recognizing he needed to win over the left, he did offer some small symbolic concessions.

But yeah. The dude never really stood for a progressive platform and the dude's a moderate at heart. He's an old dude who's had to be dragged kicking and screaming via political pressure to support nice things. And the dude is only as good as that political pressure. The second the atmosphere goes more centrist, as it often does in DC, the dude abandons his left wing positions and runs to the center out of compromise. The democrats liked him because this is the kind of behavior that's been common over the past several decades, and having a spine like Bernie does often leads to political exile.

But of course, centrists look at that from a glass half full perspective too. They see him as the kind of guy who "gets things done" and recognizes that that's how the game is played and there's nothing wrong with it while they see Bernie as stupidly rigid because he dares have principles. Speaking of Bernie.

On this particular concept, I LOVE BERNIE! Bernie has BALLS. I mean, I know I don't always agree with him as sometimes he is too far left and too jobist for me, but I do have to appreciate his consistency, especially given what I have to say about Yang on this topic. Dude built a brand, he supports it. He doesnt betray it. I did wish he would be more firm against the democrats and felt like he let himself get coopted somewhat, but the dude has tried. And now he's considering running again in 2024. I cant say I would support that due to age and simply wanting someone with a different political persuasion these days (Bernie's views are too old school for reasons I keep laying out), but still, I respect him a ton on this front.

Yang...well....I have a lot of mixed views on Yang. 

I mean, the dude started with the best of intentions. He got into politics post 2016, running on UBI, an essentially advocating for what I have been for years before he even thought about it. He approached the issue from a different angle. He tried to be a job creator. And he recognized that job creation isnt working and this religion of jobs as I call it isnt gonna solve problems. Ya know, i really wish someone would get up and scream JOBS ARENT THE ANSWER politically, and this dude is the closest one to do so. And he has a lot of street cred given his "job creator" history. I know a lot of leftists hate entrepreneurs categorically, but I can see nuance, and Yang fits that nuance.

But...the dude doesnt stick to his positions. He supported medicare for all and passionately argued for it in the war on normal people. But then he used a lot of weasel words to claim he supported the spirit of it, but he backed off from it, and then supported a public option, but never released a plan, and his actual plan didnt even include that. Yang gets it so right sometimes, but then he just...bombs. It's baffling to me. He allows himself to get more easily swayed.

And while 2020 was based his mayoral campaign he ended up doing weird things unbecoming of lefties like attacking unions (to be fair i dislike the power they have over the democrats too), and yeah he was considered a grifter by some, although I largely stuck by him.

Then he pushed forward, basically sticking the knife into the democratic party, something I wish MORE PEOPLE WOULD HAVE THE BALLS TO DO (looking at you, bernie), and expanded his platform to emphasize ranked choice voting and blah blah blah. It was a dream come true for me.

But then he got way into this weird moderate mode and abandoned his awesome 2020 platform in the first place to win over moderate conservatives...and heres the thing. While i respect a desire to win over conservatives, I'd rather do it the Bernie 2016 or Yang 2020 way. By being lefties with balls. By having a platform with convictions that speak to these people and draw them away from the populism of the far right. It's a massive tactical error on the part of mainstream dems to abandon the populist argument to the right, as it causes the politically desperate and hopeless to flee to demogogues like Trump, while the democrats just sneer at them with contempt. BUT....Bernie wanted to appeal to these guys by going FURTHER left on economics while being more culturally moderate in some ways. And it actually worked fairly well I think. While his views were unpopular with the primary electorate who are the more conservative dems who like the party as it is, they are popular with more independent types and Bernie was drawing together a coalition of the far left and center right looking to flee from the GOP's crazy fiscal conservatism. But because the left slammed the door in their face, they went Trump.

Yang also tried to appeal to people in 2020 on these kinds of terms, combining social moderation (but still progressive on policy) with a new economic way forward, and it could have worked. had he run in the general, I think he couldve taken some wind out of Trump's sails. 

But...his current approach to winning over moderates involves taking these weird cringe enlightened centrist stances and abandoning his entire 2020 platform. All of those views, gone, seemingly overnight, in a deal with the devil. The fact is, yang just doesnt have the temperament to be a good leader at times. He tends to abandon his convictions way too often often to please people who he shouldnt even bother appealing to as hard as he is, and yeah, it's alienating.

I still am under the impression yang supports what he supports, but he's kind of keeping his mouth shut and trying to make this unholy alliance with these right wingers happen. And it's just so sad to see.

Yang, dude, never abandon your convictions. You have such good ideas sometimes, but you need to stick by them. Be more like Bernie in a way.

Anyway, here, I'd say:

1) Sanders

2) Yang

3) Biden

And just to go back to my top 5 economic issues...

UBI:

1) Yang

2) Biden

3) Sanders

I gave Biden #2 because of child tax credit. Bernie arguably pushed for a temporary UBI during COVID though and arguably deserves some credit, but yeah. Yang was for the idea, Biden kind of sort of delivered, and I feel like Bernie is too much of a jobist to focus on this. 

Healthcare:

1) Sanders

2) Biden

3) Yang

While Yang supports the "spirit of medicare for all", as we know from past analyses, his views are weaker than even Biden, who at least put his public option to paper. Yang went super weak on this one. And Bernie is still the gold standard for single payer plans in my opinion

Education:

1) Sanders

2) Biden

3) Yang

Once again, Bernie is the gold standard. Biden and Yang both supported free community college. Yang supported some IBR overhauls, but Biden's plan has proven more comprehensive in practice. 

Climate Change

1) Yang

2) Biden

3) Sanders

Yang has a really based climate plan in my opinion. Biden had a more "lite" version of Bernie's which I found solid. Bernie's was just an overglorified expensive jobs program. 

Housing

1) Sanders

2) Yang

3) Biden

Bernie is one again the gold standard. yang seemed to neglect the issue in 2020 but in his mayoral run supported a very progressive housing plan in my opinon that rivaled bernie's. Biden seems a bit more weak and piecemoeal on this issue.

All things considered

Adding up the main 4 categories:

Yang had a score of 6 (2 first place, 2 second place)

Sanders had a score of 8 (1 first place, 2 second place, 1 third place)

Biden had a score of 10 (1 first place, 3 third place)

Adding up my top five priorities:

Sanders had a score of 9

Yang had a score of 10

Biden had a score of 11

In terms of overall philosophy, my preferences are clear. Yang is by far the best and closest to my views. Sanders has a respectable second place position. And Biden is third, as you would expect.

Things change a lot when looking at my top five policies go. The thing is, both Yang and Bernie support npositions that I support. Yang has UBI, but is more centrist on some other positions. While Bernie tends to be stronger on other stuff but leans too strongly into the jobism. Bernie came slightly ahead as I wasn't weighting any priority over the other, but Yang supported strong positions on priorities 1 and 4 for me, while Bernie was better on 2, 3, and 5. 

Biden, he never stood out as a top option and was normally sandwiched in second, occasionally third. 

All in all, Bernie and Yang do have strengths and weaknesses. Which is why i kind of like both in different ways. Yang is better philosophically, but I like Bernie's convictions and he still has stronger positions on some issues. So I guess my views are like a hybrid of the two all things considered. 

As far as Biden goes...I have a distinct lack of preference for his policies. Outside of foreign policy he's never a first choice, and is normally my second or third choice. Yeah...I dont like Biden much. Are you surprised? I never did really. He's okay, but he's still bare minimum, Biden. Only reason he did as good as he did was because sometimes Yang dropped the ball that hard.

Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Senate/House 9/27/2022

So, turns out right after I made that big analysis at the end of last month, everything shifted dramatically. Of course by the time I noticed I was on the cusp of my vacation and didn't have time to rework the numbers, and I can't copy my charts properly on my tablet, so I ended up having to wait until I got back from my trip. So now I am going to do that. Buckle up, this is looking messy.

Senate

Lots of changes here. A lot of polling data has come in over the last month and a lot of margins have shifted dramatically, mostly in the GOP's favor. I guess outrage over the fall of Roe is waning and democrats couldn't count on that all the way to the election. Anyway we're now looking at 11 races in place. RCP cut it down to 7 but the 4 in the "leans" categories are mostly within the margin of error (with the one that isn't being JUST outside of it for all intents and purposes) so I'm going to include them. Which means we're looking at 44 safe seats for democrats and 45 for republicans.

StatesWinner/MarginSD% DEM Win% GOP WinSeats if DEMs WinSeats if GOP Wins
Colorado
Bennet + 8.6%
+2.15
98.4%
1.6%
45
55
New Hampshire
Hassan +8.0%
+2.00
97.7%
2.3%
46
54
Washington
Murray +7.7%
+1.93
97.4%
2.6%
47
53
Arizona
Kelly + 6.2%
+1.55
93.9%
6.1%
48
52
Pennsylvania
Fetterman +4.5%
+1.13
87.1%
12.9%
49
51
Georgia
Warnock +0.3%
+0.08
53.2%
46.8%
50
50
Ohio
Vance +1.2%
-0.30
38.2%
61.8%
51
49
Wisconsin
Johnson +1.5%
-0.38
35.2%
64.8%
52
48
Nevada
Laxalt +1.7%
-0.43
33.4%
66.6%
53
47
North Carolina
Budd + 2.0%
-0.50
30.9%
69.1%
54
46
Florida
Rubio +2.8%
-0.70
24.2%
75.8%
55
45

Oh crap, this is looking like 2020 all over again. Remember the control of the senate coming down to Warnock and the margins being razor thin? At this point, control of the senate could literally go either way, it's a literal coin flip. Dems have a 53% chance of controlling the senate, the GOP a 47% chance. Extremely close. Beyond that, the democrats' seats look pretty locked down. While Fetterman's margins have dropped to 4.5% from 6 something, he's still in good shape with an 87% chance of winning. On the GOP side, the race looks a lot more mushy, with any of the seats in question technically up for grabs. Given the GOP has only a 60-75% chance of winning each individual seat while the democrats have an 87% chance, the dems have more of an edge of races outside of georgia are in play. Even if the democrats lose Georgia if they can pick up one other close seat that was in play like say Wisconsin or Nevada, they should be golden. If the GOP has a wave election, the worst scenario I honestly think would happen is 49-51 GOP or possibly 48-52 if things go REALLY wrong. Meanwhile the GOP's leads are soft and mushy, and could theoretically switch back. And if the GOP loses even one of those seats, the race is out of their hands. 

Still, I find the more "wave" oriented model to be more accurate on the whole. While variability can exist, I do tend to view the national environment in a way in which the races all relate to each other, and what happens in one also happens in several others. They're not all independent, you know? Trump in 2016 had the whole "he needs to perform perfectly to win" things where by a trend model I had trump at a 44% chance whereas if i factored in every single race Hillary seemed to be in a much stronger position. So national environment is important. And if anything the national environment is arguably favorable to the GOP. Yes, the dems got a wave back in July over Roe v Wade being overturned, but they aren't maintaining it, and the margins are hollowing out a bit. Still, all things considered, it's almost 50-50.

House

Like always, I'm not going to analyze the house in detail as it's too many races with nowhere near enough data, but the fundamentals are as such where RCP still projects the GOP having 218 seats that lean their way strongly enough where I don't think the democrats have a realistic chance. I'm going to spitball a 98% chance the GOP takes the house, and a 2% chance that the democrats retain it, based on that. For a second opinion, Fivethirtyeight seems to estimate a 61% chance the GOP wins, while the dems have a 39% based on their "lite" model (polls only, no "expert opinions"). So maybe RCP is wrong? Who knows. 

Conclusion

I'm not gonna do governors this time because I didn't plan on doing this again until about a month from now, I just wanted to record shifts in the congressional races. And it's been a major shift. Democrats are no longer riding high from the GOP going too far in overturning abortion rights, and the GOP is now looking like they once again have a decent shot at the senate. If anything this election is turning into a nailbiter. Right now we're at 53/47 for the democrats keeping the senate, with any chance of expanding their margin looking less likely than before. They're not out of it, and this isn't looking to be an apocalyptic red wave like it did earlier this year, but it's close. There's a lot of energy running high in multiple directions and the results are very much up for grabs.

Monday, September 26, 2022

How environmentally unfriendly IS a Rammstein concert?

 So...for those of you who don't know me, or haven't figured it out, I'm a HUGE fan of the band Rammstein. You know, those crazy German guys from the movie xXx who are known for their crazy pyrotechnic concerts? The people who made Du Hast? yeah, those guys. People back in the day, they were obsessed with Elvis or the Beatles or Queen, I'm obsessed with the crazy German metal guys who like to light everything on fire, including themselves and each other. 

And I got to finally see them last month down in Philly. Which I mentioned in my last article. But as I've been watching replays and experiencing post concert depression despite going down to a tropical paradise in South Carolina a week later, and especially after watching part of last week's San Antonio concert, which had a closed roof, causing the entire stadium to get hazy, I had a thought. I started thinking, gee, this can't be good for people to breathe in, and perhaps this concert is polluting the environment. I mean, it kind of is. And given I have come out against greenhouse emissions to the extent I have, believing, like many on the left, that we need to curb emissions in order to save the planet, I really had to ask, how much are these concerts polluting stuff and is it worth it?

So I started doing the math. I found out that Rammstein uses 265 gallons of fuel per show for their pyro. Which...actually doesn't sound half bad, considering what kind of show they put on. For reference, your typical car can carry around 12-15 gallons on average (although statistics seem to vary quite a bit), and typically get 25 miles per gallon. So your typical car can go somewhere around 300-400 miles per gas tank, which would mean from Philly where I saw the concert, you could theoretically drive down to Roanoke Rapids, NC, which is a pretty decent distance. And of course, you're talking roughly 20 cars give or take doing this. So that's a bit of a drive. For one person, you're talking about 6625 miles, which is enough to travel across the country and back by car.

Of course, more than 20 people enjoy a Rammstein concert. These concerts can sport crowds anywhere from 25,000 (my Philly concert was actually relatively tiny given their current tour) upward to 100,000. Say 50,000 on average. Well, at that rate, we're talking per person enjoying the concert, each person using 0.00053 gallons of gas. Which means each person would be able to, if they used that gas to drive, go 0.000212 miles, which amounts to each person going 1.11936 feet, or roughly 13 inches. 

That said, the actual fuel costs of a Rammstein concert, while much more than an average person's given the duration of the event, actually are the equivalent of each and every person in the stadium adjusting their car once while trying to parallel park. It probably was exponentially more harmful to the environment for everyone to travel to and attend the concert, than the concert itself was. The logistics required to set the concert up was also probably far more intensive on the environment than the concert itself. And I'm sure any other band would likely have at least a good percentage of those environmental costs in those circumstances.

That said, are Rammstein concerts harmful to the environment? Well, any event that causes that much fire and spews that much smoke into the atmosphere is probably causing SOME pollution. In context, does it actually cause that much pollution? No, not really. Everyone's collective daily commute to work (yes, it always comes back to work for me) causes many many MANY times more pollution than this beautiful monstrosity of a concert. So I feel like I can watch them set giant baby carriages on fire (yes, they literally did that) relatively guilt free. At the very least it's not any worse than any other concert all things considered. 

So should we ban Rammstein concerts? no, hell no. But I could see a carbon tax being a good policy to deal with this kind of pollution. You wanna fly over a giant stage from Europe and blow 265 gallons of fuel putting on the greatest live show I've ever seen? Go for it. But, I do think that paying an economic cost for doing so would possibly be a good idea. All things considered, the overall impact would be so little given the scale of the concert and the amount of money changing hands already to make it happen that it would barely factor in.

I don't get the appeal of big cities

 So, I just got back from a vacation down to south carolina. And this post has been in the back of my mind since I went down. Yes yes, I did review a couple books I read while I was down there, but I did want to discuss some other subject matters once I got back, which I will get to now.

The first of which being, essentially, the trip down. Now, as you guys know, I hate I-95. I live in Pennsylvania, and it's THE route south. Often times we will try taking I-81/77/26 and the like just to avoid the crapshow that is 95, and I did that post a while back about how there should be a giant beltway going from Richmond VA up to like Boston, MA that parallels 95 but allows people quick access to the cities if needed (or at least I thought I did? I can't find it). Anyway, there are two problems I find, as a Pennsylvanian, with I-95. 1) Baltimore. 2) Washington DC. I spent much of today navigating the circles of hell known as beltways, and my trip down was even worse. Now there are parts of 495 with unavoidable tolls that are EZpass only, and I didn't have an EZpass because I literally avoid toll roads at all costs and pay cash when I do go on them (I don't do it often). I didn't realize it because I haven't taken 495 around DC in years and the last time I went around the other way which IS free. Anyway google recommended I take the other route so I did, only to encounter this BS. So I had to get off of the highway, ended up paying cash for my toll, and then spent the next hour navigating suburbia trying to find my way back to freaking I-95 going through the slog that is DC traffic. And between this and navigating Philly the week before for a Rammstein concert, I really came to the conclusion that HEY, CITIES SUCK! At least the large ones. Medium sized ones are tolerable, but the big ones are a complete hot mess. I know a lot of lefties seem to demonize suburbia and seem to think we should all live in densely populated areas and use *shudder* public transportation, but honestly, I HATE big cities. 

The fact is, there are too many people. it takes too long to do anything. There are lines everywhere. You spend hours in traffic just trying to get anywhere. Rent is sky high. I keep telling people what the problem with housing is in a lot of these big cities, and I know DC in particular has this problem, but it's too many people wanting to live in too small of an area. That's why rent is so insane, why it keeps going up, and blah blah blah. Of course, we try to make people live there to get jobs that DON'T suck (see: the war on normal people, the other side of the equation), but the real question is, should we? A lot of ideologies and ideas that I ain't really big on, like say, georgism, actually make sense when applied to cities. because cities are neoliberal hellholes. You need to pay money just to EXIST there, literally. Just passing through I was hit with tolls. When I went to my Rammstein concert, I had to pay $30 for a parking spot for like 6 hours. Existence is commodified in cities to an insane degree even by capitalist standards and if you can't afford to live there, then you dont belong there. Capitalism literally introduces this king of the hill dynamic to it of whomever wants a piece of land the most and is willing to pay the most for it gets it. And this pisses off the propertyless because the owners of the land can easily exploit a location for money, which is why landlords are so despised. Like, I get it. I might think differently, but I get it. 

I just think the big problem is...the cities themselves. Sure, the problems with cities exist everywhere. Even in my own crappy city in a gunshot neighborhood, prices are going up, $600 rents from about 5-10 years ago are now $1000+. It's crazy. And wages aren't really keeping up either. But at least, I think anyway, my UBI ideas would work for more rural areas and smaller cities. Will they solve the problems of BIG cities? Of course not. And that's why many urban dwelling leftists hate the idea and keep going on about rent going up. Because they're trying to live in these insanely unaffordable areas where quite frankly too many people want to live. As it turns out, commodifying everything and then putting people in a densely packed area causes runaway inflation because the supply can't meet the demand. That's just basic economics. But then we have all of the best jobs in these areas too, so people are incentivized to live there if they want to avoid the hell that is the post industrial service economy working for amazon and walmart for peanuts. It's a mess. 

But seriously, being the anti work person, who doesnt prioritize jobs, and recognizes jobs are not and never will be the solution to our ills, and who sees the world differently, I think, gee, maybe people should flee the cities and we should live more spread out? I mean, Im not sure how well this would work in say, Europe, or China or Japan or something, but in the US at least, the US is a big place. Theres TONS of land. Tons of places to live, tons of places to develop. There's no reason, other than jobs, that we all have to live in these giant mega cities where population density accelerates the problems of capitalism to their breaking point. If we gave people a UBI, and made everywhere else more affordable, then maybe things would actually be better for people. We would have a human centered economy where we can all find our way somewhere, rather than this cut throat dog eat dog economy if either playing economic deathmatch in a densely populated area that can't support the population trying to live there, or basically being sentenced to a hell of working minimum wage jobs just to barely survive. Maybe if we had a UBI, we could make the more suburban, rural, and smaller urban centers more attractive, as people spread out more and seek to live as they want, rather than trying to crowd into cities that can't support them. And perhaps this will be good for the cities themselves too. After all, fewer people means that demand for housing drops, and housing and rent prices drop there too. 

Anyway, that's just how I see these issues. I hate big cities. I dislike visiting them. I dislike even passing through. Because there's just too many people, it takes forever to do anything or get anywhere, and it's just so expensive. Let me tell you, I never go to big big cities on vacation. Hotel prices are insane. Everything is insane. Meanwhile if I go somewhere down south like Myrtle Beach, Charleston, or Savannah, hotels are more affordable (well maybe not Myrtle Beach as much, at least during peak season, hence why I go in September when the prices drop), you know, these smaller cities with less population density where everything is more spread out, I tend to have more fun. It's more laid back. There's fewer people everywhere. The fewer people and the quieter it is, the better (within reason, I don't wanna be in the middle of the woods alone with no one but me and the bears or something). I know big cities have more stuff to do (if you're an extrovert), and if you like crowds and stuff, they might be good too, but I just ain't a fan. And I say this as someone who lives in a city myself. But I don't live in a monstrously large one. I live in a smaller one. Think less than say 250,000-300,000 people. That's about what I figured is a cutoff between what I consider an acceptable population size and what I consider "too big" looking at this list of cities online. Of course population density probably factors into things too. The cities I despise have a mindblowing 10k+ population per square mile, and that seems to factor into my hatred for them too. Again, too much congestion. Having a population of 10k+ per square mile seems to be too much in my opinion. I would be tempted to say even over 5000 is too high, but then I see cities that I find relatively livable that have that. To be fair, they also have far less than my 250-300k cutoff so maybe it is a matter of having both high population and high density. 

But yeah, DC and Philadelphia are examples of this phenomenon. Not even getting into New York. Only been there once. It was right after 9/11, I got to see ground zero, and yeah, same thing. Very expensive, very crowded, everything monetized. No thanks.