So, another common theme that has come out of this election is that young people broke HARD for the democrats, to the point that the republicans are shaken to their core. Many are calling for raising the voting age and making it harder for the GOP to vote. The more sane ones seem to have the same despair in their analysis of the 2022 election that I noticed before Trump came around in 2016.
One thing I have noticed over the past decade, is that the GOP has a young person problem. While gen Xers and Boomers and Silents all like the GOP and moderate democratic politics, millennials and zoomers...don't. Many have pointed out this young person problem, with some fearing that the party might be screwed demographically into the future as the GOP does nothing for young people and their problems.
And as a relatively young person, I have to generally agree. It seems clear those above and below 45 think differently. They are in two very different generations. The older people grew up in a world in which the cold war was raging on, there was the rise of conservatism from the 1960s into the 1980s, and liberals ended up getting beaten down and became more moderate in response. There was a very anti liberal and anti communist slant, which drove the country to the right, and made conservative politics make sense. But....for those of us under 45...the world is very different. We grew up largely after the cold war, with the Berlin wall falling and the Soviet Union dissolving when we were children, babies, or not even born yet. We grew up in the internet age, where we had access to more information than older people could ever dream of, and went to college to become the most educated generation ever. And yet....because we didn't succeed in "life", we ended up becoming the most liberal generation ever. Many Millennials who I know who started out conservative, aren't that conservative any more. Many are more moderate at best. The first conservative president we really had that we remember well is George W. Bush, who essentially ruined conservatism on us, between his bad foreign interventions and the great recession. And the great recession, hoo boy. I just covered that one earlier. Try graduating into an economy with no jobs and youre forced to work minimum wage to survive. The adage that people get conservative as they get older implies they have money, and value stability, but they don't have money, or stability. They can't build their lives, they've delayed things well into their 30s, some never even got anywhere. What does the GOP offer us? NOTHING. Their politics make little sense to us, because the American dream is like a huge party the previous generations had, and now it's over, but we somehow ended up on cleanup duty.
Admittedly, I feel like my generation is getting more conservative as they age, but more in a "moderate" sense. Many people just end up getting beaten down, and stop thinking about systemic change, and just think about their own lives and livelihoods. They end up just developing screw you i got mine mentalities not because they got theirs, but because the system is so screwed that they fight for everything they got. And honestly, I think 2016 broke our brains. Hillary's neoliberalism turned off a good part of our generation, and many of them became Trumpers as a response. And many of us on the left ended up passively accepting neoliberalism as an alternative to trump. Some became extremists, only to end up going crazy post 2020. Still, I think most millennials do lean further left than previous generations. They are just losing their will to fight. I guess that's what it means for us to get more conservative as we get older. Still, we're far more liberal than Xers and beyond on average.
Zoomers though, zoomers are a lot younger, and seem less willing to put up with peoples' crap. If the GOP has failed millennials, zoomers are the angry generation I wish my fellow millennials were. They are the Greta Thunbergs of the world telling the world that yall are destroying our futures and ruining our lives. They are the ones who are pro gun control because they spent most of their childhoods doing active shooter drills because of mass shooting. They are the ones who watched in horror as we millennials couldnt get jobs after college due to the recession. And they too lack any decent conservative role model in their lives worth a crap. Most seem smart enough to see through Trump's crap. Trump and Hillary and Biden were really the candidates of dinosaurs. They represented the older, affluent classes' interests, not the interests of the young. Young people like people like Bernie and Yang and have politics more in line with mine. heck a lot of millennials are more extreme. They are often the ones who embrace wokeism. They are also the ones who start acting like literal socialism is a good thing. Sometimes zoomers are too liberal. Still, I like the outrage, and I like the drive. Many of the people in my generation seemed to have mellowed out in age and have a "well I like bernie but..." mentality. And some have just abandoned the left entirely, especially white working class males without a college education. The thing about those guys, is they get the same "I work so hard" mentality my parents did, where they embrace a form of stubborn bitterness that life sucks and everyone else deserves to be as miserable as them. I don't see them as happy. But they generally have a screw you I got mine mentality and seem to foolishly reject any attempt to help people. I think these guys could've gone bernie in 2016, but now that the moment is gone, they went with trump, and the conservative indoctrination kicked in, we lost some of them. Younger zoomers in this category also tend to have a "well i saw you idiots make bad decisions and i didnt so sucks to be you i guess" while flaunting that they got a job out of college or went to trade school in our face. Those guys are clueless idiots. i guess people who never had anything go wrong for them are like that. "The system works for me, screw you I guess". It's messed up.
Okay, so assuming that zoomers remain as liberal as they are, and millennials are given the choice to express their preferences without being bullied into submission, what will happen? What will happen to us in the coming years as the silents and boomers start dropping dead and the Xers become the new boomers?
Well...party realignment.
The republican party still has a huge demographic problem on their hands. This was apparent before 2016, when it seemed like liberalism was ascendant. Before Trump, it looked like the GOP was done. That they would fall apart, and that the left would suddenly become the dominant party again. But, Trump energized the base, and that old generation stuck in their old ways ended up alienating the left. Since Obama, it seems like the left has the future on their side. Tons of people voted for hope and change, and then stayed home when disappointed. They came out again in 2012 but in smaller numbers due to the recession, but then in 2014 they didn't as Obama seemed to do nothing but be a lame duck. In 2016, people wanted something different, but Hillary decided it was her turn, and Trump took the populist energy away from the democrats. And since then we've been kind of wondering if we had it wrong. If we are really about to lose our democracy to a fascist takeover, as humanity becomes ugly in the face of no positive solutions to our crises. If the left was done. I think as long as the left sticks to their old ways, they ARE done. Centrism doesnt motivate ANYONE. Old affluent people might like that, but young people want action.
And with the rise of "Dark Brandon", well...I think some of us are coming around. I've heard someone ask if Kyle Kulinski was becoming a centrist for supporting Biden lately. As someone who thinks like Kyle in a lot of ways, hence why I listen to him a lot and reference his content a lot on here, uh...no. It's not that people like him, or me, are more centrist. It's that Biden is doing things, and we feel a need to reward that. it's not that we like biden. I think he's a mediocre president all things considered. And his centrism has been a turn off. But, he did try to forgive student loans, he did get us out of afghanistan, he did try to pardon drug offenders, he did push for green new deal lite, I personally understand that if he fails after doing all that, the democrats will go back to centrism. My grievances with the party were always about them having this attitude of "screw you i wont do anything for you but you better vote for me or else". And I basically took the "or else" because I dont tolerate that stuff. But if Biden does nice things, i'm going to reward that. Biden IS fighting for some nice things. And it seems apparent congress is the problem. And unlike obama who just sputtered about democracy being hard work, Biden actually appealed to people to give him a congress, which is all I can ask from a president who has an agenda being blocked by congress. Biden proved he is willing to continue to fight for his agenda. it doesnt mean his agenda is the best or I agree with him completely. I've been quite critical, but....he's who we got, and he's trying at least. I gotta reward that. if young people didnt come our and reward that he would do what clinton and obama did, and run to the center and compromise with the GOP. But, I think the democrats know, due to their loss in 2016, they they can't do that. We bernie or buster types really did put the screws in and they had to relent under pressure. Even if they did it in a way to save face, and even if they did it in a watered down way, we have to protect what progress is being made. All the GOP winning would do at this point was enable them. Instead, the red trickle has shown that the energy the GOP has is not that much, and the democrats are being rewarded for their behavior. And now we can go on the offensive more in 2024 I think.
Also, it's not like third parties are doing a better job. I had a lot of hopes for Forward, but since the merger it's become a bigger centrist circlejerk than the democrats, and takes my criticisms with them to almost parody level degrees. Sorry Yang, you screwed up here. Should've stuck to UBI advocacy. Third party stuff on top of that is fine, but you shouldnt have abandoned your principles. And the greens...well...we analysed their policies. Hawkins is one of their best and it's more smoke and mirrors than anything. An insane green new deal that's way too expensive and socialistic and life changing. A healthcare plan whose numbers don't work. A UBI whose numbers dont work and isn't really much of a UBI but an NIT at best. I mean, these guys are good for a protest vote, but they're not REALLY worth a vote if we can get progress from democrats.
The fact is, post 2020, the other factions have imploded so much that the democrats are the only ones standing. The bernie or busters are either insane like Jimmy Dore, or they're literal communists. The yang gang is a parody at this point with the forward stuff, and the democrats are at least doing SOME things.
That isnt' to say they're perfect, but eh...I'd be willing to support them over the other factions. Much like kyle, I am a social libertarian (he's considered one on polcompball wiki too), and while my philosophy differs slightly from his (he's more like a traditional left wing populist whereas I'm more in the whole UBI branch of it), I think it's the fact that the democrats are the only ones who aren't batcrap insane at this point and are getting things done. And it's not like the GOP isnt an existential threat trying to turn back all progress.
In 2024, I don't know what I'll do. If Biden runs again, I might just support that, although I'm potentially open to a third party run if the candidate/platform is right. It really depends. I know that if Biden DOESNT run, the democrats are in trouble. The democrats have their own problem. They have the future demographics, but their bench sucks. They've spent so much time cultivating their own bench of future candidates who no one likes because they're the same old centrists like Harris and Buttigieg, while Bernie is just too old and there is no adequate replacement to him. It's possible in the future we will see more progressive candidates as millennials and zoomers become more dominant voting blocs, but we'll have to see. The fact is there just aren't many candidates worth supporting. The dems kind of screwed themselves with Biden and now it's like we're stuck with him until 2028.
That's the weakness of the democrats. The GOP might have a demographic weakness, but the democrats have a politician weakness. They old all the cards, but they really don't know how to play their hand. And they've been playing it poorly, not realizng that the game is changing.
That's why I've been so bold by the way. I could see the blood in the water going into 2016, but then the GOP happened to get lucky with Trump and he saved the party. But now as he proves to be a liability to the party again, the existential dread is setting in for them again.
On the democratic side, they hold the keys to the future, it's just a matter of forging the coalition to realize it. We need good candidates that can do that. But....our candidates suck and they're a gerontocracy of their own with their aging politicians stuck in the past. The GOP have young politicians but an old voting base. The democrats have an young voting base with old politicians.
That said, it's unclear if the democrats will truly realize their advantage. But it's possible with these 2022 midterms turning out relatively well for democrats, they are starting to feel emboldened, and realize that perhaps they are just an election or two from driving the current GOP into the dust. And then maybe we can actually make more SERIOUS progress.
That's why I voted democrat this time by the way. between candidates like fetterman, and the possibility of losing the narrative for decades again due to inflation, I just realized that the GOP couldn't win here. If they won, the democratic party would potentially be toast and we could be looking at the GOP dominating things for the next generation. But, the actual turnout showed that maybe it's the GOP who is done, and maybe all that needs to happen is we need to outlast them. Maybe post Trump, the party will implode and will once again be directionless, and young people push the overton window further left. It's possible. I would expect that given we started realigning in 2016, perhaps by 2028, we might see the big realigning year.
No comments:
Post a Comment