So, Mark Kelly won Arizona, and Catherine Cortez Masto won Nevada. That means we officially have 50 seats in the senate, regardless of what happens in Georgia or not. I was pretty sure, given the other results, that Kelly would win Arizona, but I wasn't sure about Nevada. Looked like it would come down to the wire, given the polling had going red by roughly the same margin as Wisconsin in my predictions. And it did. While Kelly won by a healthy 5.7 point margin, implying like many other states, that the polling was off (6 points in this case), Cortez Masto only won by 0.5%. Democrats overperform again!
Anyway, this pretty much shows that the republican attempt to take over the senate is a total rout at this point. Even if they win Georgia, it doesn't matter. With that, I'm not sure what will happen. If I HAD to guess based on the results of the first round, I think a lot of the libertarians will go for Walker, but who knows? Democrats are doing good and if Walker does win, democrats will have gained ground in the senate, effectively defending all of their states and flipping Pennsylvania. House control is still up for grabs, but I honestly don't see democrats' chances good there. Still, given 538 had like a 28% chance and RCP basically gave them effectively 0%, I considered the house a foregone conclusion. If the republicans DO win it, I don't expect it to be by much. We're talking a 222-213 margin or something like that (that's my best attempt to guess right now). And people question if the republicans can even effectively leverage their control with those margins. I was watching stuff saying that previous speakers struggled to do it with 230-240. But with a margin like this, any defection or anyone not being present for a vote could change the balance of power on some votes.
So democrats are still likely losing the house. But, again, all things considered, this was just about the best possible REALISTIC outcome for them.
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