What 2028 will look like if the electorate shifts 15 points

 So....we've been noticing some trends, whether it be the Wisconsin SCOTUS seat, or that one seat here in PA in Lancaster county that shifted 15 points since the 2024 election, but Trump is going down massively in popularity. What he's doing isn't popular, and it's actually pretty disastrous. Even if the dems learn nothing from 2024, 2028 could be a lay up if we see the country shift as massively as these early elections indicate. I mean, just to give you an idea of what 2028 would look like if the country shifted this much, this is what we can expect the map to be:

Yikes, a 15 point shift is so extreme my model isn't even programmed to account for it. ALL the states I listed will shift blue, including Florida, Texas, Iowa, and Alaska. However, nothing past that shifts. The next state to my knowledge is Kansas, which went red by 16.2%, so a 15 point shift still has it going to Trump by 1.2%. Still, that's a very close pink state if it showed directly. Beyond that, we got states like South Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, and Montana which all went in the 18-20 point zone. They will be down to 3-5 points, so also visibly less than solid red here. 

Keep in mind, my model is intended to predict elections and I typically dont go beyond 12 points because that's 3 standard deviations and the probability of something going out of those bounds is around 1 in 1000. So this model isn't set up to account for shifts that big. if I see shifts that big, I would likely just rebuild another map. Still, I did want to show what this would look like if it happened.

I doubt we'll see a shift THIS big. I mean, we're gonna shift, but even in 2020, the map only shifted around 4-6 points in the polling, although Biden could have possibly done far worse, leading to a map that would have been closer to 10-15. Keep in mind Harris did damage control and Biden is predicted to possibly do around 7 points worse than this map, so maybe this:

Yikes, that's also pretty apocalyptic. So could a 15 point shift happen in one election cycle? yeah, if you F up enough, and if the country was sane, I would say that yeah, Trump should give us a shift like that, but sadly this country isn't sane and I still think 40%+ of the country will defend the guy no matter how bad he gets. Of course a 15 point shift does only mean the 2028 nominee wins the popular vote by 13 points, which is about the margins we're seeing in special elections...

Still, it's possible those special elections just represent low turnout situations and the actual results would be closer. Still, even an 8 point shift to the left would give us a strong win. We'd get the 7 swing states, but that next crop of states would still go red...

 

This is a decisive win for democrats, but not so much of a death blow that the GOP can never recover. I would say given where this election was this time, the GOP losing Florida/Texas/Iowa/Ohio would be akin to the dems losing like, New Jersey, New York, or Illinois. Pack it up, you're DONE if that happens.

If I had to guess what happens in 2028, I do think some variation of a 319-219 map is one of the most likely scenarios. Any shift between 5.5-10 points would give us that map. It's basically the democrats' equivalent of the 226-312 map Trump got this time.

Today was a very bad day

 So, yesterday, we had a ray of sunshine, which was weird given it was april fools day. I didnt have a good joke this year and wasnt particularly motivated so I didn't bother. But yeah good day. Well, today, we get the bad day.

So it's liberation day. The day where Americans will be liberated from their money as Trump decided to tariff the everloving fudge out of the entire world. It's gonna make prices go up, especially on electronics. Seriously, hope you got what you need for the next 4 years, because this is gonna be bad.

Speaking of which, the switch 2 was announced today. And the prices are eyewatering. I didnt buy the first switch because they wanted like $200-300 with $60 games that rarely go on sale and I found that kind of insane. Not to mention I have little interest in the system outside of like the 5-10 first party games I'd play and given the cost, eh, I'd rather play on PC. Quite frankly I'm a guy of relatively limited means, i cant always afford the best and the greatest, and yeah, if switch was my MAIN console, that would be one thing, but PC gaming is my main platform, so yeah. Buying switch stuff would take away from my ability to afford what i want on PC so PC is my main platform as its basically the same as Xbox/PS these days. 

 The switch 2 though, they want fricking $450 for that with $80 games, $90 if you go physical, which there's no point in doing since physical games dont even use traditional cartridges but a weird system of cards that are linked to digital downloads which you can only play if you insert the card in your system. Why does this system exist? WHO KNOWS!? They could've just sold CD keys to their online store instead. This is stupid. heck the whole thing is stupid. Like, the more I look at the announcement and the specifics, the less I like about it.  

Even worse, to make this entire crapshow come together like cold and hot air during a tornado warning, the tariffs might make the switch 2 even MORE expensive, where the console costs $600. This is speculation, and it's also been speculated maybe those prices INCLUDE the tariffs, but yeah, this is a dumpster fire. If you feel like god is punishing you for voting for donald trump and this is the equivalent of the frogs and the hail in the 10 plagues, you're probably right. Or maybe you just F'ed around and now you're finding out. 

Either way, those of us who didnt vote for trump have to suffer this crapstorm too. I really hate this guy. Like, I never liked him, but i especially DESPISE second term him. First term, well, he sucked, we all knew he sucked, but at least he was under control. Now he's just going wild. And his policies are a disaster. And everything this guy touches is a disaster. Hopefully this is the shock therapy we need to encourage an entire generation of americans to never vote for him again. Maybe this is the second coming of herbert hoover we need to get the second coming of FDR. Who knows? Either way, the Biden economy looked great compared to this crap, yet the same people complaining about that are now cheering this guy on like a group of dumb seals.

Today was a good day

 So, two pieces of news I want to report on today. First, the liberal won the special election for the Wisconsin supreme court seat. Elon musk dumped tons of money into this and this was framed as a pivotal race that would decide the fate of western civilization, given how pivotal wisconsin is for national politics right now. Musk's candidate was defeated.

Actually three things. Musk is planning to step down from DOGE in may, citing mission accomplished after trying to cut a trillion dollars from government. Bye, don't let the door hit you on the way out! Seriously, F that guy...

In other news, the democrats actually grew a spine. Cory Booker, a democrat I'm normally somewhat critical of for his opposition to medicare for all, did a 25 hour filibuster the old fashioned way to protest Trump's medicaid cuts.  Gotta respect the big fricking balls on this guy. it used to be that you had to be on the senate floor talking for hours and hours and hours, you know, taking a principled stand, not just go "we're filibustering for 2 years" meaning you need 60 votes to pass literally ANYTHING. Well, Cory did it the old fashioned way like Strom Thurmond. And he broke Thurmond's record. So history was made today. A democrat actually stood up for something in a substantive way, and he broke the old record, which is actually a big fricking deal. 

You always hear these democrats being like "well we cant do anything, what do you expect from us?" LITERALLY THIS. So let's give this guy a round of applause for actually doing something to oppose trump. More of this, please. I dont mind if you do it the "new way" either. If Mitch McConnell did it, then we should do. But yeah, I do respect symbolic acts of protest and defiance too. 

At the bare minimum just dont be complicit with the opposition. To the likes of Chrissy Houlihan and John Fetterman, who actually do represent me personally, shame on you, do better. Be like Cory here. Or at least dont cave to the republicans. Im not gonna ask every single democrat to do a strom thurmond (or shall we say, cory booker) length filibuster. But, ya know, just....dont be complicit. If your actions can compared to vichy france, don't do what you're thinking of doing.