So...with all the overhype of AI, I wanna give some quick thoughts before going to bed to round out the night. People have been speculating, is AI here to stay? or will the bubble burst? yes, and yes.
AI IS here to stay. It's a useful tool. I mean we have these language models that can bring up all human knowledge in an instant and give semi informed summaries to people. We have robots that can write essays in seconds. We can see people who code being put out of work because of AI. AI IS revolutionizing employment in the 2020s, leading to a lot of technological unemployment.
However, it IS overrated. These models arent perfect. They lie. They hallucinate. Their usefulness is immense, but they cant replace all human labor. They're "weak AI" as I said, chinese room experiment type AI. They're not strong, generalized AI. This isn't the singularity. People are acting like it is.
I also feel like we're massively OVERINVESTING in AI as a society. I mean, that's one of the real reasons I despise it. It's not the tech itself, it's what the corporations are doing. They think this is gonna be this thing that's gonna revolutionize society, and they're trying to ram it down peoples' throats. And I just don't think people are that interested. I know I'm not super interested. I use chatgpt sometimes, but I'm not like a regular every day user. I feel like we try to put AI in everything, and for most things, it just feels forced. Like these companies are trying to force us to adapt AI, and people aren't anywhere as interested as its being sold. The big people interested are other companies, who use it to automate labor. And it can automate some labor, but not all of it.
Honestly. There is a usefulness to AI. I'm not gonna lie, but people are comparing it to the dotcom bubble of the 90s and I would agree with that. I do think there is aggressive speculation and our society is gripped by this crazy delusion of what AI is, and what it means, and we're WAAAAY overselling it. And I think that the corporations making it buying up all the computing power in the world and sucking up tons of electricity is unsustainable. I think at the end of the day, when the limits of the tech is more apparent and we get past the whole "this isn't strong AI, this is weak AI" distinction, we will eventually get to a point where this bubble is gonna burst. Profit margins of the tech won't be as healthy as indicated. And it will be like the crypto boom when that went bust. Suddenly there's all this RAM and GPUs that no one wants and needs and HOPEFULLY computer prices will go back to normal.
It will be painful. Between AI actually taking a decent amount of jobs, and the bust causing basically great depression 2.0, we're gonna be in for some hard economic times. I really do think we will be seeing some major economic pain by the end of the trump term. We're seeing it now to some degree, but I dont think we'll REALLY see it until 2026 or 2027, maybe 2028, when we just get to a point of the bubble bursting in a HUGE way.
And then....boom. Great recession 2.0. I think it'll happen. This AI stuff is the only thing driving our economy right now, otherwise it's kinda dead in the water with trump's tariffs and crap. Jobs are disappearing, consumer spending is down, AI is literally the only thing driving us right now and when that pops, we're gonna see a MAJOR economic contraction. Again, I think it'll be another 2008, honestly. That big. And yeah. I just wanted to give my thoughts on that, and to conclude my train of thought on AI for now. Again, it's a cool tech, but it's MASSIVELY oversold and eventually I think that that bubble is gonna pop as people don't find it anywhere near as useful as its hyped up to be. Like, really, it seems like we're having AI distort the PC hardware markets, and then tech companies try putting AI in everything, but consumers arent as interested in it as they think, and its usefulness is oversold, and I think, as a result, something will pop somewhere eventually. Like, I dont think this is sustainable. This trend seems to be pushed by all these rich guys trying to build a product that no one actually wants to the degree that it's valued. Overinvestment combined with underwhelming return means that eventually we will see a market correction. It's just a matter of time. I say by the end of trump's term.
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