So...as I've been saying since basically this blog's inception, we've been undergoing a party realignment since 2016. And, as I see it, it could've gone one of two ways. Either we got a strong progressive left with a weak and moderate right, or we get a strong populist right with a weak and moderate left. I wanted us to go in the other direction, but because the democrats basically F-ed us, we're on the other trajectory.
And now we're basically in the midst of an authoritarian police state attempting to solidify its control over the country. It's control is not complete or absolute, but we are clearly in the phase where the threat is present, and conditions are worsening by the day. With that said, I want to map a few possibilities of how things will go from here.
1) Trump succeeds, American democracy is over
So say Trump invokes the insurrection act, suspends elections, or does other things that make the idea of a fair election like we've had basically impossible. The range of outcomes here can vary. On the one extreme, elections are cancelled altogether, and on the other, Trump basically is able to get some legislation through mandating voter IDs, banning mail in voting, and deporting POC on a level that shifts the demographics in a way to make democratic wins impossible. We could slide into a one party state with the pretense of democracy like Russia, or we could just do away with the concept like Nazi Germany. It's a spectrum, but the outcome could be on that spectrum.
Well, then we're screwed. While it is possible a realignment occurs as the democrats are forced to realign themselves to this new reality and come back even more moderate, it's possible that, much like with Russia, the republican party maintains power by sabotaging further movements from democrats to ensure that they always win. And America just keeps backsliding.
This is the worst outcome, and yeah, we're screwed if things go this way.
2) Trump fails; democrats claw back power
Now, Trump's solidification of power is not yet complete. He CAN still fail here. We are in a dangerous time, but I believe if we make it through 2026, we can begin to make a come back. If American democracy is allowed to continue as is, it's very likely that democrats will retake the house next November. I dont know what margins we'll see, but based on the generic congressional vote, I estimate the public has shifted 4 points since 2024, which means we should have a rather comfortable win, with a ballpark estimate of a 85% shot at retaking the house. The senate, that's gonna be a tough nut to crack. My own estimate is that democrats might gain ground, particularly in North Carolina and Maine, but I doubt they'll be able to secure a net of four seats required to control the senate outright. I'd say, optimistically, the democrats have a 25% shot there based on raw polling at this point (tipping point: Texas), but I wouldn't count on that.
Still, with the house, Trump's ability to get legislation passed grinds to a halt. There will be investigations, impeachments, although without a compliant senate, it's unclear how much will stick. At the very least, Trump's ability to actually do things will be reined in, and he will be a lame duck the rest of his term.
And in 2028, well, then we very well could likely retake the senate and the presidency. And with that, a new era of politics can begin...or can it?
At this point, I'm gonna split things into various possible outcomes depending on how democrats act.
2a) Democrats learn nothing and do nothing, MAGA wins again
So...we saw this game before. Biden won in 2020, Trump did January 6th...and then F all happened. The house investigated and voted to impeach but the senate saved Trump. Trump plotted his come back. The Biden DOJ investigated him for several crimes, but never acted fast enough to actually put the guy behind bars, despite Jack Smith now saying they had a hole in one case. And now Trump is enacting his revenge.
And....let's face it. The democrats propped up Biden in 2024 when he wasnt in any condition to actually continue to govern. Then they replaced him with Harris. They learned nothing, blamed Biden but refused to look internally at their own brand of politics, which I would argue has been unpopular since 2016 (because we ARE in a realignment). And uh...yeah. So they get in, they dont have a grand vision beyond getting Trump out. They don't prosecute Trump or his officials for obvious crimes against the constitution and humanity because they wanna put the thing behind us. And then...in 2030, republicans retake the house, and in 2032, they retake the presidency with someone else. Possibly Vance, or someone else.
And what happens from here? Well...we're back to square one. Keep in mind, Trump is too stupid to do everything he's doing. He has people behind him. He has infrastructure behind him. He has true believers behind him. And his own voter base is NUTS. They LIKE what he's doing. I was reading what they were saying about today's....uh...event, and they were cheering on the ICE officers. They are beyond hope and beyond help.
And given the direction of America first, the MAGA civil war, we could see the next wave of MAGA be outright Nazis. Trump might be a transition president for the GOP...with the next guy after him being a full blown fascist, like, the ones openly talking about concentration camps and screaming about Jews. Nick Fuentes's fanbase. Those people. They might be in charge.
If that's the case, we're still screwed. We'll avert disaster....only to repeat the same cycle because the democrats refuse to learn.
2b) Democrats learn nothing, but public too afraid to vote republican again for a while
It's possible MAGA scars the country's psyche so bad that people just end up voting for the democrats by default for the next 12-20 years. They dont change, they don't learn anything, but the public realizes what we just went through and is so scared of Trump and his ilk ever getting power again that democrats maintain strong bipartisan support for a while among the 60% of the country that's sane. We see landslide type electoral wins in 2028, 2032, and 2036, and possibly beyond. After all, a telltale sign of a realignment is strong, overwhelming wins for one party and the end of the other party's current brand of politics. Here, the republicans would forced to moderate in order to win back voters, and the republicans would end up becoming relatively socially moderate, but still fiscally conservative. The democrats would remain fiscally conservative, but be socially liberal. It wouldn't be a great outcome, as things would never improve economically for the people. But everyone is just so glad that the Trump era is over that democrats are able to remain this third way party that no one likes but everyone tolerates anyway.
This is the "crappy status quo" outcome. It's not my preferred outcome, and progressives would be very muted because stepping out of line would mean electing another Trump, but at least we avoid fascism.
Still, this might be kicking the can that is our economic reckoning down the road. Kinda like how Jacksonian democrats and whigs distracted from the slavery issue, or how the democrats and republicans in the 4th party system did F all to actually improve things significantly for the working classes, and it required the great depression a generation later for real change. Such is the nature of American politics, we'll do everything but the right thing, and we'll only do the right thing when absolutely forced.
Speaking of which, when will said reckoning come? Give or take...2060. Why then? Well, let's keep in mind the 36 year cycles. And then keep in mind the possibility for messy transition periods between cycles. For example, we had the New Deal coalition win in 1932, the collapse of it in 1968, and the Reagan revolution in 1980. And what was 36 years after 1980? 2016.
If Trump counts as the transitional figure, 36 years after 2016 is...2052. If we start with 2028, we might see a 36 year coalitional collapse in 2064, with potentially another messy transition lasting from 2064 to...2076.
So yeah the exact timeline is variable. Could begin as early as the 2050s, might not see the crap hit the fan until the 2060s. But expect the crap to hit the fan in the mid 21st century sometime. What would cause that? Who knows. Could be climate change. Could be the national debt, or China's ascendancy. I'm not sure. But the cycles tend to happen. I'm not sure what will happen in terms of cycles if Trump ends democracy though. We could see a revolution around that time if he succeeds in solidifying control in this era. Or some sort of Soviet collapse. Who knows.
2c) Democrats learn, we get the progressive future I wanted
I'm starting to consider this a long shot, but it's possible that we could end up seeing the democrats learn from their mistakes. I know it looks like Newsom, Harris, and the like are ahead NOW, but what if the democratic primary season is a really nasty and bitter one. What if a popular charismatic candidate like Jon Stewart comes out of nowhere and wins it? What if the public decides they're enough with centrist democratic leaders and their approved candidates fall on their face? What then? Well, then we might see the democrats come back, elect a more extreme progressive candidate, and be able to enact a positive agenda that improves the lives of the people and wins them over.
This is my preferred outcome and the one I hope for, but it's also the least likely. But if this happens, we get the happily ever after ending. The bad guys get tribunals, the country gets a new new deal, and we get a coalition of progressive interests centered around democratic socialism, human centered capitalism, or some variation thereof. And that lasts until around 2064 before it collapses, while it is replaced by the next thing in 2076.
How do I rank the likelihood of these scenarios?
I won't assign percentages, but the outcomes are ranked as is from worst to best. From most likely to least likely...idk.
I personally dont think Trump's control on power is complete enough that we'll get the truly hellish outcome, although he's certainly gonna try something I think before ceding power. I doubt he will succeed, but he's gonna try. And he COULD succeed, so that should scare everyone.
Anyway, I asked chatGPT, and it basically broke it down like this:
5-10% chance of ending democracy itself
30-40% chance of democratic backsliding (similar to Hungary in the 2010s or Turkey in the 2000s)
50-65% chance of Trump failing and a reversal to some version of the status quo
They seem to think that the US is very resistant to authoritarian takeovers (I would agree) and that Trump just taking over and creating a one party state is unlikely. However, there is a significant likelihood of some sort of "1B" (Trump weakens democracy but doesn't destroy it) or "2A" type situation.
I also asked chatGPT about how they think the democrats would respond to Trump and Trumpism, and they tend to agree with me that they're more likely to basically double down on their current identity rather than embrace some sort of economic transformation. They'll lean into moderation and appealing to donors and the donor class over embracing something resembling a new New Deal.
If anything, the more I discussed it with chatgpt, their analysis seems to suggest some variation of 2a or 2b. We're in for a long messy period in which democrats become centrist institutionalists, and republicans keep doubling down on a post trump version of Trumpism. I will say, we do have different takes on what this post trump trumpism will look like. They think the GOP will likely become more insane, but still quietly authoritarian, a la, say, JD Vance, whereas I think that the "America first" people might draw them even further into radicalism. I recognize the Vance approach is very much a possibility. I just believe that the GOP keeps trying to "manage" their chaos agents only to be taken over by them and driven more and more to the right. So...idk.
So I guess....2a and 2b are the most likely outcomes, with 1 being less likely, and 2c (my preferred outcome) being even less likely.
If anything, the more I think about it, and chatGPT seems to concur with my analysis. We're kinda screwed. I was kinda hoping 2016 would merely be the chaotic period leading up to a realignment, with a real realignment around 2028, but if the democrats learn nothing, and they probably won't, 2016 was the event, and the best hope we have until like 2052 or so is just "voting blue no matter who." Which sucks.
So...yeah. idk what to say here. This exercise kinda made me depressed about our future chances.
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