Saturday, February 3, 2024

South Carolina dem primary results are coming in, it's over

 So, the south carolina results are coming in, and while we only got 43% reporting, it's over. 

Biden is leading by an eye watering 96.5% of the vote. Marianne Williamson is at 1.9%, and Dean Phillips is at 1.5%. 

I knew it would be bad, but this is just...crushing. I think the polling had like 78% wanting Biden, 5% wanting Marianne, and 3% wanting Dean Phillips, so I never really had positive expectations or any illusions of a win here. But...this is just...sad. Really sad. 

The fact is, we still had like 14% of the undecided vote that could have swung toward other candidates. On the republican primaries so far, much of the undecided vote is going to people like Haley and DeSantis, where the more optimistic expections as per the polling are coming in where Trump gets like 54% and Haley like 46% or something.

Here, the challengers are getting CRUSHED. I mean this isn't even close. Say that Biden got exactly 78%, with the other 22% going to other candidates. Say Dean Phillips gets 14% and Marianne gets 8% or something. That still would be a loss, but it wouldn't be as embarrassing as this is. Biden got literally around 96-97% of the vote. This is the best possible case for Biden and the worst possible case for anyone else.

Just calling it now, it's over. Idk if these guys wanna fight on at all, but it seems pretty clear that despite Biden's unpopularity, there is virtually no demand for anyone different. And yes, I know it's south carolina, and it's basically filled with establishment voters, but yeah, this is just...worse than expected. 

I mean for reference, in 2020, Biden got 49% and Bernie got 20%. In 2016, Bernie got 26%. So, I know the ceiling for a non establishment candidate is probably, at most, that. But again, COMBINED they got 3.5% of the vote. If ONE of them got 3.5% I would be inclined to say they underperformed. But for both of them to get that combined, it's just...over.

Seriously, it's over. This is a complete and utter rejection of any challenge to Biden. Voters want Biden, they don't want anyone else. There's no possible way to spin it any other way.

And yes, I know the democrats have their finger on the scale here. Still, this is an embarrassing and crushing defeat even considering that. It's not like I ever expected anyone but Biden to win. I just didn't think the margins would be so bad. 

EDIT: with 99% of the vote in, the final tally is now at:

Biden: 96.2%

Williamson: 2.1%

Phillips: 1.7%

Not much changed but the margins did get ever so slightly better for Williamson/Phillips. Still a crushing defeat though.

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