Saturday, October 5, 2024

Can one midwestern indie boi save the senate for the democrats?

 So, I posted some of my election predictions from yesterday online and I was asked about the Nebraska race with independent Dan Osborn running against a republican. I admit, I didn't follow that one, primarily because there was zero polling on RCP about it. Still, I decided to look into 538 as a backup site,  as they sometimes cover polls RCP doesnt for whatever reason, and I found 3 polls for him. In one, he's ahead by 5, in one, he's ahead by 1, and in a third one, he's behind by 1. 5/3=1.67, or 1.7 with rounding, and that's his polling average.

He's actually winning. In Nebraska. Against the republican.

Now, keep in mind, Osborn is an independent. He's NOT a democrat. Looking at his policy, he seems more independent than anything, but he does have a progressive streak. He actually seems to like Bernie Sanders, and democrats seem to be helping him behind the scenes. Could he caucus with the dems similar to Sanders and King to give the dems a 50 seat majority (granted Harris wins)? Maybe. It's not off the table.

Anyway, I did have the republicans at 49-51, with there being little flexibility to shift things either way. My senate prediction yesterday had the GOP at an 86% chance of winning, the dems at an 11% chance, and there being a 3-4% chance of a tie. 

But Osborn, if I count him as a de facto democrat in my model (which I will simply because he's running against the republican and my model is not gonna handle an independent candidacy well), he blows the race wide open. Suddenly the dems have a 14% chance, the GOP is down to a 34% chance, and there's suddenly a 52% chance of a tie. That's a marked improvement in odds. 

As such, I'll continue to keep an eye on this race. I hope RCP covers it soon, but if they don't, I'll keep using 538's data. This seems kind of important to follow, and even if the polling is relatively low quality, the race is in play and he probably has a higher chance at flipping something than some races I'm already covering.

Repository of previous presidential election predictions 2004-2020 (new format)

 So, I've been predicting elections for a while. Since 2008. And in the overall result, I got most of them right, outside of 2016. I do tend to get a few states wrong in the details, but I'm often CLOSE, as we'll see. Now, I've shared much of this before, but now I got my fancy charts with my fancy maps, so I'm gonna be posting receipts on this for future reference.

2004

So, 2004 was the first election I took active interest in in my life. I wasn't old enough to vote, but it was the first election where I considered myself politically active and informed enough to have some sort of actual opinion. I may have had the intelligence of your average republican voter in that election cycle, which isn't amazing by current standards, but wasn't bad for a teenager. 

Anyway, I didn't make a formal election prediction this race. I did believe Bush would win, but I wasn't informed enough to actually follow polling, I was mostly following vibes based on how my family, teachers, and peers voted. And everyone was conservative and believed democrats were evil, that was my echo chamber back then, so I was passionate about Bush winning too. And he did win, narrowly. Not as narrowly as 2000, but it was still, in retrospect, a very competitive election. 

Anyway if I did make a prediction with current methodology, I would've gotten Wisconsin and Hawaii wrong. Wisconsin I would've understood, it's a fairly competitive rust belt state even today, and it came down to less than a point. Hawaii, idk why the polling was like that, I think hawaii and I think a D+30 state or something. Mustve been junk polling. Ah well, young me wouldn't have known better anyway. 

2008

So, this actually is an election I had a prediction on. And no, this prediction isn't it. This is based on polling and my more modern methodology. Ironically, my actual prediction was more accurate. How do I know this? Because I was pissed I got north carolina wrong. What caused me to undertake this election prediction thing in the first place was a contest in my political science department in college for who could predict the election best. I spent hours pouring over the data, mostly going by polls, but occasionally making judgment calls based on past history of the states involved. I somehow guessed Indiana correct, but got North Carolina wrong. And I lost the contest to someone who guessed perfectly. 

Anyway, in retrospect, going by past trends did help me over this prediction. I did get Indiana right somehow, idk how I did but I do remember I had I think 351-187 Obama that election? Yeah. Makes sense based on the math. Mightve gotten one of those weird districts wrong too. But they had no polling. Oh well. 

Funny thing is, I did take stats and research methods around this time and I kind of knew that Obama was polling so well his win was basically statistically significant. I went by a 3 MOE back then, but yeah. Even with my newer, more lax MOE, Obama still had a 94.8% chance of winning. Kind of insane. I miss that at this point, even though I was dooming as hard at the time as I was when Biden was in the running this year. Biden actually had better odds. Let that say something. 

2012

In retrospect, 2012 was kind of a boring year for election predictions. it was 2008 2.0 with the GOP standing no chance. And let me just say, I kind of understood why at the time. The GOP wasn't popular. They were advocating for trickle down economics in the middle of a recession and they ran the rich frick who liked firing people and whined about the 47% not paying taxes. So this was a lap for Obama. 

I was also almost dead on in my prediction, only getting florida wrong in this methodology. 

At the time, I had a different prediction, much like 2008. I was once again irritated about being off by 1 state. I got Florida right, but guessed Virginia wrong, thinking it would go red. It was a tossup, but still. I should've known better. That's when I stopped trying to make judgment calls and just let the data do the talking. Of course,analyzing those past predictions now, maybe my judgment calls were sometimes slightly more accurate. Idk. I seem to be making the same amount of mistakes generally, just different ones, following the data. Randomness be randomness.

2016

So, some may remember this one.

This is my infamous 2016 prediction. It's the first election I guessed live on this blog, and the first prediction where I started using something resembling the current prediction chart we all know and love today. Since starting blogging, I started beefing up my methods and by election day, I was getting relatively sophisticated in my predictions. At the time I did the charts manually, and they took up a lot of time. Switching to sheets has basically greatly improved the speed at which I can pop predictions out. And that has allowed me to get even more sophisticated...like adding maps directly into my predictions now. 

But yeah. This one I was off. Then again, who wasn't? No one guessed MI/WI/PA would flip, at least no one reputable. As such, the only other state I got wrong was Nevada, and the red call seemed justified at the time based on polling. I mean, it was a tossup. I get tossups wrong. Meh. 

Also, on 2016, I like to famously say I was closer than anyone else here. As I said, no one guessed the rust belt would flip like that. And my probability had clinton at a 56% chance. Silver was being praised for having 71% in his model. So if anything I would say i actually beat Nate Silver on this one. 

2020

So yeah, 2020, I screwed up. Then again, once again, everyone did. I was way too bullish on Biden. This is because I culled the polling averages and removed certain R leaning pollsters who had junk polls from the averages. This ended up leading to me having a way too D happy forecast. And then I was crapping bricks on election night as North Carolina and Florida went red. 

To be fair, Nate Silver messed up too. Same error I made tbqh. This is why I don't weight the polling averages any more. I feel like whenever I go against the data, I make mistakes. In retrospect with 2008 and 2012, maybe I wasnt as bad as I thought, but yeah, this once again confirmed that it's generally not a good idea to go against the data. Hence why this time I'm not weighting anything almost.

Anyway, I was so displeased with the accuracy of this prediction I went back and redid it, making a second retroactive prediction based on what I would have gotten had I just followed the data:

This prediction is better, at least in terms of margins. Far more accurate, and while I made the same number of overall errors, I did so on closer states. My original prediction I got GA right but FL and NC wrong. In my revised prediction, I got NC right, but then I was wrong on GA. Still, I think in terms of margins this is a much better prediction, and 62% is more accurate of Biden's actual chances given the final result than the 89% I got with my original prediction. I basically predicted another 2008 landslide, I got 2016 but slightly more D leaning. 

2024 (Biden)

*holds up cross* GET BACK! GET BACK SATAN!

...yeah. Biden was bombing hard. This was the worst electoral prediction map for the dems I've ever seen. You'd need to go back to 1988 with tank man (Dukakis) to get a worse map than this. He was losing everything. NY, NJ, WA, IL, and ME1 were all on the chart, with the first few of those being actively in play. I mean, when do you hear of those states in play? When he pulled out, he was losing virginia. The sun belt is turning red red. The rust belt is still looking like a tomato. This was not a good map. And while I was skeptical replacing Biden with Harris was a good idea given her initial polling seemed even worse, I'm pleased to say that, yes, it was a good decision.

I won't say the modern map looks great. And I won't repost any Harris maps here since that election is still ongoing with the data shifting by the day, but yeah...it looks closer to my 2020 revised map. Maybe just a little worse.

As such, I'm not entirely confident even harris can win, but to be fair, I'd rather have a map that looks just slightly worse than my revised Biden 2020 map than this above map. This was TERRIBLE. And this is why I was kinda freaking out. At least we have a chance now...

Conclusion

So yeah, I just wanted to post these so I could bring them up whenever I need them. I wanted to post a condensed history of my election predictions, and figured given my fancy new format with google sheets that these pictures would provide my predictions in a relatively snazzy format.


Thursday, October 3, 2024

Election Update 10/3/24

 So, we're getting into October, polling is constant, every prediction I make is inundated by like a trillion new polls the next day, and there is no longer a good time to just make an update. I usually do it Fridays because polling slows over the weekend, except...now it doesn't and if any day is slow, it's Sunday, and even then not always. Today was slow, so I decided to update today.

I also decided to update today since I improved my charts to more explicitly show who the winner is, as well integrating an electoral map right into my excel/google sheets sheet. So that's gonna streamline some of my predictions and I wanted to show off these improvements. That said, let's get to it.

Presidential

So yeah, the race is as close as it gets. It all hinges on PA, basically, although any weird combination of the 7 swing states could swing the race either way. The race is 50-50, and it comes out as a tie. 257-262 electoral map, no winner, because PA is 50-50.

As far as the trend goes, line goes up, line goes down, you can't explain that. Actually I can. New polls replace old polls, sometimes we get waves of polls that show good news for Harris, and then new Trump leaning polls come in and swing it back the other way. We got daily fluctuations by this point, and right now the race is literally 50-50. Tomorrow it might be 48-52 Trump, or 58-42 Harris, who knows? Within 60-40 it's all functionally the same anyway from a statistical standpoint.

Senate

Senate race is the same 49-51R hot mess it's always been. Some races getting less certain for the democrats, but they still got a significant advantage there. Anything can happen, but we're probably gonna end up with 49-51R.

And yeah, that's my election update.

So, Ana Kasperian has finally "left the left"

 So, it finally happened, the thing that tribalistic leftists have been predicting since Ana Kasperian started pushing back on her nonsense. Ana has finally "left the left." So, I'm going to go over her article, respond to it, that sort of thing. Because I've had some strong opinions on this topic in the past, and I kind of sympathize with her in some way. I admit, myself, I kinda realized I was never the kind of crazy left the so called "leftists" like to push on people in a tribalistic way, and I'm not the kind of person to let myself be pushed around, but let's see what Ana says in her own words.

Independent and Unaligned

You're right, I've changed.

After Trump came onto the political scene, and especially after he was elected in 2016, the us-vs-them mentality immediately took shape. Anyone who refused to “resist Trump” was seen as a threat to the country, and I was fully on board with that mindset.

It all felt righteous at first. But eventually, the tactics deployed to fight Trump became repetitive, boring and ultimately fruitless. Polling shows that he has increased his support among Black and Latino voters despite wall-to-wall coverage on his unsavory, racist or bigoted remarks. Several years of media raising alarm over Trump’s threat to democracy has only resulted in a tight presidential race between himself and Kamala Harris.

 I mean I'm gonna be honest, I was never even on board with THAT. I was a Bernie or buster who basically got pissed off at the democratic party, voted green and then checked out of politics for a while. If anything, I hated the kind of cult like behavior the left was starting to employ, and when I did post, i was deeply critical of the mainstream left. The fact was, I didn't leave conservatism just to put up with THIS nonsense. so I never really was on board with the left during the "resistance" years. I largely just stayed out of it. I had my views, and I disengaged from the left because ever since leaving Christianity, I have this defense system up where if I detect people are trying to manipulate me to their way of thinking, I'll just quarantine myself like an anti virus keeping a virus away from an OS. The fact is, in a lot of ways, the groupthink of the modern left IS a mind virus, and I've been heavily critical of it over the years.

For Ana to not recognize it does come off to me as naivete. I can't blame her. Unless one has had the strong epistemological soul searching that I've had, it's easy to be swept up in stuff, most people have never truly "left the cave" and most aren't capable of looking at things rationally and objectively. There's always a sense of "us vs them" and tribalism, and if you dont identity with every part of the tribe, your credentials are questioned. With me, my big "leaving something" moment came in leaving Christianity and conservatism. So it was relatively easy for me to not be swept up in stuff a second time and to realize it for what it is. But yeah, I understand not everyone has the same views i do.

I can’t help but acknowledge that the only thing that was accomplished by resisting Trump was less understanding and more division among Americans. I personally became reluctant to challenge my “side” or engage with voters who disagreed with me. In turn, I became less knowledgeable about the people and world around me. I saw Republican voters as an evil monolith and that was a big mistake.

 Yep. Kind of went into the whole tribalism thing as I said. However, one thing I will say. Just because the left is wrong doesn't mean the right is right. And as someone who "left the right", let me tell you, I DID THAT FOR A REASON, and while not all people who identify as right are evil, I would largely say their ideas are morally and intellectually bankrupt, and by my own ideological and moral standards, I would go so far as to call the modern GOP "evil." 

This does not come out of a sense of tribalism, but of my soul searching experience. I've decided for myself, using my secular standards, to figure out what "good" and "evil" are...and the GOP is...quite frankly, evil by those standards. Their views are so devoid and counter to what I consider "good", that they have literally no value, and if anything have negative value in the modern world. The individual people in the moment, sure, they arent always evil. Heck most of the time, they're just brainwashed and caught up in something like pretty much every resist lib out there. But yeah, if you consider what their goals are, and what they're trying to do, they're...shall we say, "regressive." And I stand by that.

My evolution started in 2022 when I was sexually assaulted by a homeless man in my neighborhood as I was walking my dog. That horrible experience alone didn’t change me politically, but the treatment I received from the far left and some progressives after sharing the story did. 

I was told that by publicly sharing what had happened to me, I was stigmatizing my “unhoused neighbors.” Others accused me of feeding into racist tropes because they assumed that my attacker was black. But I had never even disclosed the man’s race. 

He was white. 

First, let me just say it's horrible she experienced that. Second, let me just say that yeah, I can see the left acting like that. Something something privilege. How dare you criticize a POC (even though the person wasn't POC), how dare you criticize a homeless person.

This is where nuance comes in. Homelessness in America is horrible. I feel bad for it, I don't think it should exist, I support solutions that solve the issue. But...as long as homeless people exist, and as long as poverty and desperation exist, well....the risk associated with homeless, poor, and desperate people doing criminal acts is...well...a thing. And it should be acknowledged as a thing. This is kind of why I sympathized with Yang in his 2021 mayoral race. He was criticized too for making comments about homeless people and how people shouldnt feel unsafe in their neighborhoods. And the left attacked him for it. Even though he would be for a UBI, which would solve the problem.

And I'm of a similar perspective. i live in a BAD neighborhood. The kind where you hear gunshots at night. The kind where my family's car has been shot up before by people deciding to have a shoot out in front of my house. And it sucks. And I'm afraid to go outside at night. I'm afraid to go outside during the day. And it sucks. 

But at the same time, I understand that sociologically, it got here because of a bunch of complex and interlinking factors that kind of drive me to my current left wing views. I understand things like white flight and urban decay. I understand that the so called "job creators" have no incentive to "create jobs" in areas where poverty and crime like this exists. And that things will never ever improve when left to the free market. I understand that the only real solution we have to fix areas like mine is a UBI, and that it would go further to stabilize things than anything else. We would have no poverty if we had UBI. Homelessness would be relatively rare. And crime would go down, if anything. Social dysfunction like crime comes from complex sociological factors that drive people to do such things. Policies like UBI would reduce the necessity that drives such things. 

But yes, merely pointing out "oh, I feel unsafe in my neighborhood", or "I dont like being around homeless people" or something like that is enough to drive self described leftists nuts where they're like how dare you think that way check your privilege, blah blah blah, and I can understand why Ana felt the way that she did. She literally was a victim of a crime and the left was telling her to STFU and check her privilege about it. Jesus christ. You see how this leftist brainrot doesn't resonate with people? Jesus. 

Not only did I suddenly see the flawed thinking of some on the left, I also witnessed their cruelty and hypocrisy in real time. These terrible traits that I had associated solely with my political opponents were obviously not exclusive to their tribe. I was stupid for ever thinking that was the case. 

 Yes yes, both sides do tribalism. I will still say, despite the above, one side does tend to be closer to the truth than the other though. The important thing about being "unaligned" and a rational thinker is you can analyze the situation from all angles and then make a judgment call that aligns with YOUR value system. Like I just did. 

Is the "i dont like crime and criminals in my neighborhood" mentality of the right justified? Yes. Is the "the root cause of these issues still systemic and best solved through some variations of left wing policy"? Also yes. Nuance is important. When people fear Ana leaving the left, they do so because they fear she will get sucked into the group think of the other side. And it's easy to do. I thought I was "on the left" until I realized I really wasn't one of them, that my ideological background was different, and I won't always align with them. And while I am still vaguely "left", I'm also deeply critical of "THE left." If that makes any sense at all. You can have your cake and eat it too. Really.

That doesn’t mean everyone on the left thinks or behaves in the way this small group of lunatics do. Far from it. But it does mean that there are factions and flaws on both sides of the aisle and no one has a monopoly on truth. 

In light of the above, I'm just gonna say that reality does have a liberal bias. Just saying. 

Then there was the insane reaction to one of my tweets in March 2023:

 For reference this is the infamous "birthing person" tweet.

All hell broke loose after I posted those words. Most “friends” in left-wing media didn’t bother reaching out privately to discuss their disagreement with my personal preference. Instead, many self-described socialists took it upon themselves to profit from conflict by publicly attacking me with monetized videos.

A smaller leftist YouTube show put out five separate videos skewering me about the tweet, while conveniently erasing the advocacy I had done on behalf of the transgender community throughout my career. They even went as far as drawing a link between my tweet and trans suicides, which sadly wasn’t the most unhinged outcome of the debacle.

TYT’s volunteer YouTube chat moderators quit over the tweet, and someone reported me to Human Resources. An on-air transgender contributor even resigned from the company after being urged by online mobs and leftist shows to do so. Curious that not one of those shows hired her after she took their advice.

I never apologized for the tweet and I never will.

That whole experience forced me to come to terms with the intolerance on the left and it allowed me to publicly reject the ideological shackles that kept my world small and less informed.

Yeah. And that was really just some of the most insular terminally online nonsense that you see when dealing with internet leftists. I mean, SJWism is a cult. And you're just support to unquestioningly uphold their social norms and values, and if you don't, you're excommunicated. "Burn the witch", blah blah blah. And yes, I am making a parallel to Christianity there with that reference, because social justice ideology is literally just the right's current zeitgeist of religious fundamentalism. It's cut out of the same cloth, and does the same thing to people's brains. 

And you know what? Ana shouldn't apologize and she should be proud for breaking through the group think there. There's a reason I never jumped on the social justice bandwagon. THis is why. As a free thinking "secular" humanist (secular in quotes as I'm spiritual now but I still hold a secular political ideology and my views do have a ton of intellectual debt owed to the new atheist movement), I never could jump on board with this stuff. Because it involves turning the brain off, not questioning things, and going with the group think. And I wasn't willing to do that at the expense of my priorities. 

Today I’m less certain and more curious than I was four years ago. I’ve made humiliating mistakes while covering political news because I was previously unwilling to consider or understand the perspective of Americans who vote differently from me. 

Just because you left a certain left wing cult doesn't mean the right is in any way justified. You can just be an independent minded leftie like me.

What to Expect From Unaligned

I’m hungry for dialogue, a space for in-depth analysis and a judgement free zone. That is what I plan to do here. Every week I will provide subscribers with:

  • two to three written pieces that dig deeper into the big stories of the week with the intention of finding truth rather than promoting a political side.

  • video posts sharing details on breaking news and political events.

  • a weekly podcast beginning in November that will feature long-form discussions and debates with guests from all walks of life.

  • engagement with me in the comments section for paid subscribers. Join me and be part of the dialogue.


 Won't be subbing but yeah, that's the end of the article.

I know Ana will never read this, my personal political blog with like 3 viewers or whatever, but I do have some advice in case she ever does.

So, with me, I left the right in 2012. I left fundamentalist Christianity, I became a "new atheist" and a "secular humanist", and I build up my worldview from there. 

What you (Ana) need most right now, is a coherent epistemology or a worldview. You need to figure out who you are and what you stand for. You're ideologically unmoored, which is a good thing. It allows you to do introspection and to look at things from a new perspective. But...in order to not fall into another "trap" so to speak, you need a coherent set of values guide your thinking.

I talk about worldview and epistemology a lot on this blog. All of my views come from my epistemology. These the views behind your views. These are what anchors you to reality. You need to figure out where you stand in regard to what worldview you espouse. 

Think about things like this:

Do you believe in god or not? What impact does this religious belief have on how you view reality?

What is morality, really? Does it come from god? Do humans make it? What are its goals? Who does it serve? 

What do I believe about the history of humans and where morality comes from, and where states come from?

What do I believe about human nature? What about free will?

How should humans organize themselves? Should we be more individualist and/or libertarian? More collectivist? What are our rights? What are the limitations of state action? What is okay and not okay?

From these kinds of questions, you tend to get some political ideas. Heck, the reason I'm so harsh on conservatism is I generally know what the answers to those questions are for those guys, and I fundamentally don't agree with them. Likewise, I also understand the left disagrees with each other on these questions. We're not necessarily a monolith. And the reason there's so much infighting among "leftists" is because there are tons of different ideologies that view these kinds of things differently.

But anyone who leaves a worldview should figure out where they stand, in crafting the next. And it's best for people to figure this out for themselves, rather than just adopting some other guys' ideas. Heck, just adapting someone else's ideas instead of figuring out things for yourself, is how people get in these positions. Most peoples positions on things come from their social environments, their upbringing, etc. And people end up being in these tribes as a response. But sometimes people question their views. And sometimes people leave their ideologies and then form another. Given Ana is just "leaving the left", now, she's literally having her "leaving the cave" moment like I had in 2012. But where she goes from here is really up to her. And I hope she uses her newfound intellectual freedom responsibly and doesn't turn into a right wing ghoul in the process, I really don't. Sometimes people overcorrect from one side to the other, they adopt a worldview, and then they become everything the polar opposite of where they started.

Even I did it. I just did it before the modern zeitgeist where the polar opposite of fundamentalist christianity was "new atheism" and that whole zeitgeist. If you leave SJW politics and go to the polar opposite, that means becoming an alt righter. And for the love of God Ana, I'm just gonna give a warning, DO NOT GO DOWN THIS ROAD! Those guys really don't have the answers. If anything, that's how you end up going down the road to literal fascism.

Obviously, reality is nuanced. I mean, I expressed it in my views myself. You can both be not a fan of literal crime, while also understanding the sociological origins of most crime. It's fine. I do it myself. So does Yang. You can be for trans rights while also recognizing that the weird cultish behavior around language and "birthing persons" is unhealthy. You can be "left" in a sense, without being part of "the tribe." If anything, it's best NOT to be. 

I mean, on this issue, look no further than Kamala Harris. Pretty progressive lib, has a history in criminal justice and as a prosecutor. Even gets a lot of crap from the left over it, but you know what? I've had criminology professors that remind me of Harris before back in college. It's fine. if anything, I feel like that kind of position and nuance is lost in this modern age of tribalism. The left as a whole has picked up a lot of really awful habits and beliefs since the 2016 election cycle. Hell, thats where the left really started to go "wrong" for me. And I really have diverged from it then.

I'm still "left" in a vague sense, but I also understand I'm politically homeless, I dont have much of a "tribe", if one at all, and I really dont fit in anyone's box. Even the Yang Gang has exhibited toxic tribalism before, and I've called them out on that too. And called Yang out on his own shortcomings too. I crap on everyone. And that's one thing that I'd recommend. Understand who YOU are, stick with it, and then don't be afraid to call out anyone else's crap. Even someone you agree with. Even someone like say, Cenk Uygur, in Ana's case. Because we all know that guy does occasionally need to be brought down a peg when he gets going on his insane rants on occasion. 

Anyway, that's my response to Ana leaving the left. I largely support her decision, but think she also needs to have some discipline in who she listens to and stuff like that. There is a such thing as being so open minded your brain falls out. And I really do think Ana should take some time to herself and retrain her brain to figure out who she is, what she's for, and then stick with it. In my case it took about 2 years I'd say for me to really grow into the person I am today. I left religion in 2012, but I wouldnt say I came to anything resembling my current views until late 2013-2014ish. By the end of 2014, yeah i am who I am, but that was 2.5 years later. It really does take that much time to sort yourself out after leaving an entire worldview when it's all you've ever known.

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Are undecided voters as stupid as I think they are?

 So I'm watching NBC and they had a panel with undecided voters. They kind of were more perceptive than I thought. They knew vance was lying, they actually thought walz was better. I actually think that's a good sign to some extent.

On issues, one of them was just pissed off at both sides and didnt like either candidate. They said if either cared about the country, both wouldve not run. The interviewer pointed out that Biden did step a side, and ripped Harris for basically not being someone she could vote for. She kinda reminds me of me in a way and how I actually hate both parties. I could almost relate to this person, although at times it seemed like DUH JUST VOTE HARRIS! 

One was concerned about Janaury 6th. 

One was actually pro israel and wanted a candidate who was strong on israel and against iran. 

So these guys actually care about issues, they just don't really associate or identify with either candidate. They dont feel like the candidates address the issues they care about. To some extent, that's fair. 

I'm just pleased to see these people caring about actual ISSUES and not just voting based on vibes or some other dumb crap. I normally look at undecided voters in the october before the election like these guys are ignorant, they dont follow policy, they're probably gonna vote based on vibes, not fact check, etc. No, these guys actually are issue focused. And they just arent happy with what they see out of either candidate. That's somewhat fair. I hope they come around to harris and see through trump/vance's BS. The dems are unequivocally more substantive IMO to the point id never even consider the republicans even if i dont particularly like the democrats. Like that's how I feel as a left wing independent. I lean left, clearly. I just dislike the democratic party. I dislike their brand of politics, and i want them to do better. of course dems dont care about voters like me, but that also might actually push away actual independent voters too. The point is at least the ones who were talking didnt seem happy with the republicans either. They just hated both sides honestly. 

Idk, maybe people aren't as stupid as I think they are.

Discussing the VP debate

 So, this is just my initial impression, I admit in the second 1/3 of it I was a little distracted by IRL issues, but I did watch it.

All in all, both candidates did pretty well on paper. Vance I think came off slightly better on charisma. he was smooth, he was slick, he was at the top of his game, and he came off well and relatable to the people IMO. Walz came off slightly worse. part of it was just his age and demeanor and thing beyond his control, but he still did look worse when contrasted with Vance. he also had that cringey comment about how he "befriended school shooters" which was an obvious gaffe and was not intentional, but you know how they are, people take everything out of context. Still, I'd give Vance a 5 on style, and Walz a 4. 

On substance though...well....Vance was peddling a bunch of garbage. He was all over the place, he was lying about everything, and while the American people are probably too stupid to know that, yeah, I knew it, and honestly, while he didnt go full on "eating the dogs" level like Trump did, he still kinda sucked. So he gets a 2. Walz on the other hand did better. I admit, on a couple of issues i wasnt super duper convinced by walz's answers (hello healthcare debate, where walz defended the flawed ACA framework and vance advocated for replacing it with the power of the free market), but yeah, he was substantive at least and I have to give him a solid 4 here. 

As such, Vance's overall performance is a 7, Walz is an 8, so walz won for me. i'll always take a slightly less charismatic candidate who speaks truth over the slick salesman selling lies and that's what it came down to. How the american people will view it, that's up for debate in itself. I could see a case for vance "winning", but honestly, i preferred walz. Although I was voting dem anyway so...yeah.

Is Kamala Harris a "bad candidate"?

 So, more polling came out today and Harris slid down a little more in some states. I'm still not convinced we should sound the alarm yet as the shifts only amounted to like a 0.3% shift in a handful of states, but it did generate some discussion, including some people claiming that the reason the dems are backsliding is because Harris is a "bad" candidate. So I wanted to address this question: is Harris a bad candidate?

Well, first, let's actually conceptualize a "good" candidate. What would a good candidate look like? Could they win in this political environment? For me, Bernie Sanders was a "good" candidate. If anything he's the best candidate of the 21st century (so far). He had his finger on the pulse of America at the time, and was mostly screwed because the democratic party was too resistant to change. And they did ram a bad candidate down our throats: Hillary Clinton. Why was Hillary so bad? Well, because she ignored what people wanted, she spat in peoples' faces, crushed their dreams, and then wrote off all criticism on her side as "those darned bernie bros are so sexist" and blah blah blah. In some ways, 2016 was a wakeup call for the democrats that they can't do this crap. And...to some extent, they listened.

Biden was a bit better than Clinton. I would still say he was a bad candidate, doomed to appease moderates while alienating the progressive base, but he won, mainly because Trump was in office and highly controversial and unpopular. Despite a massive polling lead on paper, the race ended up as narrow as it could have been, and Biden barely eked by. 

In 2024, Biden, himself deeply unpopular, was on course to lose in a relative electoral landslide. But then he dropped out, and Harris replaced him. I'll come back to this, but first, I want to finish my thoughts on some "good" candidates.

So Bernie was good. He had a solid command of the issues, and in 2016, he spoke in a way that said, we see you we hear you, we wanna fix the issues. The current course the dems were on was untenable, no one wanted to continue it, except the establishment, and people wanted change. 

In 2020, I also thought Yang was good. You know me, I'm the UBI guy so of course I'm gonna front the guy who ran on my ideology and signature policy, but at the same time, in a lot of ways, yang was also not good, and the fact that he ran more or less on a variation of my ideas is the only reason i am so charitable toward him. He backed away from a lot of those ideas in practice, he had no political experience, he seemed out of his depth on other issues where everything kept coming back to UBI even when it really shouldnt ("UBI will allow people to move to higher ground"), and again, did I mention he kept backing away from his signature policies like healthcare and alienating his own base, myself included? So yeah he kinda sucked too. 

Honestly, it's hard to conceptualize a good candidate. The best I can realistically do is "Bernie but with UBI instead of a green new deal." That is a good description. But even then, could such a candidate even win in the current environment? Im not sure that they can. After Biden and so called "Bidenomics" (ie, mild keynesian theory that ended up backfiring because of the extreme challenges associated with covid and its recovery), the american people are in a relatively conservative mood, and very inflation conscious. So normal progressive ideas may not resonate. And it's hard for the dems to really...do anything. Especially given the institutional hurdles that kind of drag everything down into this obstructionary inertia. 

So...im really drawing a blank here. What DOES a good candidate for the dems look like in 2024?

Obviously being an outsider with some appeal and some political experience is probably for the best. We would like someone who can distance himself from the Biden administration and chart a new direction. But what does that agenda even look like? It's hard to say, really. I mean, I had all of the ideas for 2016 and 2020, but in 2024, they just seem out of place and unpopular given how the covid recovery shifted the narrative.I dont even know what people really want other than for prices to come down. And at this point deflation is impossible, so its like...well what can we do other than what Harris has already proposed? She has gone further than me on many issues related to this, and I really am at a loss. Normally the traditional idea to end inflation is to introduce unemployment, but that would be politically disastrous, and we already stabilized things the best we could, people are upset over 2-3 years ago still and the GOP is riding off of that dissatisfaction. Trump can get up there and talk all day about how if he was still in office none of this could have happened, but at the same time, he has zero policies to address inflation and his tariffs would likely make inflation WORSE. 

And let's go back to Harris now. So Harris. We were discussing for weeks before Biden dropped out who could replace him if he dropped out. And honestly...I had no real answer. The progressive bench is basically wiped out and again, i dont believe the public wants more left wing ideas at this time, if anything they're leaning back to the right. 

Harris is...all things considered, the best candidate we couldve gotten. I mean, the dems in general have a culture problem. They suppress anyone that isnt their specific brand of politics, and make everyone conform to their brand in an almost cult like manner. As a result, we always get some variation of the same brand of corporate centrist, and if anything, Harris has a history of being bernie lite and being further left than any of the viable alternatives. ANd her VP pick, tim walz, was the best the dems could have chosen under the circumstances.

So right now, this IS the best ticket, IMO, the dems could've run. So what's the problem?

Well, if harris has any flaws, it's IMO this: 1) she's too close to the biden administration. On the one hand that's what propelled her to the top, but on the other, it also makes people skeptical of her. people arent familiar with her policies, are skeptical of her policies when she hears them, and then people ask if youre VP why arent you doing this stuff already? Some of these questions are valid. I know it's easy to hear solutions and hard to do them and if harris is technically in office, why is she not doing more? Which brings us to the second problem with Harris: 2) she's being forced by the institutional challenges she must navigate to basically just be a biden second term. And people didnt want biden. Harris had a decent policy agenda in 2020. She wasnt the best candidate on policy, she was outshined by bernie and yang and those types (and even warren), but she was okay. But because the dems now have to appeal to suburbanites because the dems scared off all of the white working class voters who were dealigned in 2016 and have since realigned with MAGA, and we realigned where the dems need to appeal to moderates now just to survive. And that means that harris is pressured to move to the center, abandoning some policies like universal healthcare to win. So Harris ends up being this milquetoast moderate and de facto Biden 2.0, and yeah, see point 1. She cant distance herself from Biden and the existing democrat brand.

I swear, 2016 is kind of the gift that keeps on giving for democrats. The dems went all in with clinton and her centrism, ignoring bernie, and then the republicans outflanked her and the two mutually triggered a realignment. Trump got the white working class the dems abandoned, and the dems got the suburbanites, who are very unreliable because theyre functionally conservatives and the dems can't really get out a reliable coalition. Now the dems are losing their POC advantages as they get fed up with the status quo, and the dems' house of cards is falling apart. 

Honestly, Harris is the best candidate the dems could've run, at least from those who could have run this time, ie, who is or isnt too old, who is in a position to run, who the dems would allow to rise within their ranks, etc. The problems with Harris speak to larger issues with the democrats. Problems related to their coalition in general. Problems related to their brand. Problems related to political trends causing 2024 to be a year where a lot of people just dont want dems, they want change. And trump is the party that represents change. Trump can just get up there and be like "if i were in charge none of this would happen/i would solve it overnight magically" and people will vote for him. Harris has actual solutions, but maybe they're not what everyone wants, or maybe people are skeptical of them because dems tend to propose milquetoast policies that dont resonate or they wonder why harris isnt doing them already. 

And yeah. Harris isnt the problem. The democrats have major structural issues that just make it hard for them to win elections. ANd this year is a very anti dem year. Harris is doing as well as we could expect a candidate to do.