So, we're getting into October, polling is constant, every prediction I make is inundated by like a trillion new polls the next day, and there is no longer a good time to just make an update. I usually do it Fridays because polling slows over the weekend, except...now it doesn't and if any day is slow, it's Sunday, and even then not always. Today was slow, so I decided to update today.
I also decided to update today since I improved my charts to more explicitly show who the winner is, as well integrating an electoral map right into my excel/google sheets sheet. So that's gonna streamline some of my predictions and I wanted to show off these improvements. That said, let's get to it.
Presidential
So yeah, the race is as close as it gets. It all hinges on PA, basically, although any weird combination of the 7 swing states could swing the race either way. The race is 50-50, and it comes out as a tie. 257-262 electoral map, no winner, because PA is 50-50.
As far as the trend goes, line goes up, line goes down, you can't explain that. Actually I can. New polls replace old polls, sometimes we get waves of polls that show good news for Harris, and then new Trump leaning polls come in and swing it back the other way. We got daily fluctuations by this point, and right now the race is literally 50-50. Tomorrow it might be 48-52 Trump, or 58-42 Harris, who knows? Within 60-40 it's all functionally the same anyway from a statistical standpoint.
Senate
Senate race is the same 49-51R hot mess it's always been. Some races getting less certain for the democrats, but they still got a significant advantage there. Anything can happen, but we're probably gonna end up with 49-51R.
And yeah, that's my election update.
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