So, I posted some of my election predictions from yesterday online and I was asked about the Nebraska race with independent Dan Osborn running against a republican. I admit, I didn't follow that one, primarily because there was zero polling on RCP about it. Still, I decided to look into 538 as a backup site, as they sometimes cover polls RCP doesnt for whatever reason, and I found 3 polls for him. In one, he's ahead by 5, in one, he's ahead by 1, and in a third one, he's behind by 1. 5/3=1.67, or 1.7 with rounding, and that's his polling average.
He's actually winning. In Nebraska. Against the republican.
Now, keep in mind, Osborn is an independent. He's NOT a democrat. Looking at his policy, he seems more independent than anything, but he does have a progressive streak. He actually seems to like Bernie Sanders, and democrats seem to be helping him behind the scenes. Could he caucus with the dems similar to Sanders and King to give the dems a 50 seat majority (granted Harris wins)? Maybe. It's not off the table.
Anyway, I did have the republicans at 49-51, with there being little flexibility to shift things either way. My senate prediction yesterday had the GOP at an 86% chance of winning, the dems at an 11% chance, and there being a 3-4% chance of a tie.
But Osborn, if I count him as a de facto democrat in my model (which I will simply because he's running against the republican and my model is not gonna handle an independent candidacy well), he blows the race wide open. Suddenly the dems have a 14% chance, the GOP is down to a 34% chance, and there's suddenly a 52% chance of a tie. That's a marked improvement in odds.
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