So, with the democratic and republican conventions concluded the race looks much different than it did a few weeks ago, in a fairly disconcerting way. Long story short, the republicans are making a lot of gains and Biden is falling apart. Since COVID began, Biden has had this thing almost locked. He has been consistently ahead by 6-10 points, and that has all changed recently. Trump is gaining a lot of ground in the rust belt, much like in 2016 in the last days of the election, and it's a lot closer and competitive now. What I will be doing here is getting a handle on how much.
Safe electoral votes: Trump - 115, Biden - 212
The race has not changed at all in terms of what states are safe and swing. It has only changed among the states up for grabs. Now we will look at how much things have changed.
| States | Winner/Margin | SD | % Biden Win | % Trump Win | Electoral Votes if Biden Wins | Electoral Votes if Trump Wins |
| New Hampshire | Biden +9.7% | -2.43 | 99.25% | 0.75% | 216 | 326 |
| Minnesota | Biden +5.3% | -1.33 | 90.82% | 9.18% | 226 | 322 |
| Pennsylvania | Biden +4.7% | -1.18 | 88.10% | 11.90% | 246 | 312 |
| Nevada | Biden +4.0% | -1.00 | 84.13% | 15.87% | 252 | 292 |
| Florida | Biden +3.7% | -0.93 | 82.38% | 17.62% | 281 | 286 |
| Wisconsin | Biden +3.5% | -0.88 | 81.06% | 18.94% | 291 | 257 |
| Michigan | Biden +2.6% | -0.65 | 74.22% | 25.78% | 307 | 247 |
| Ohio | Biden +2.3% | -0.58 | 71.90% | 28.10% | 325 | 231 |
| Arizona | Biden +2.2% | -0.55 | 70.88% | 29.12% | 336 | 213 |
| Maine CD2 | Unknown (0.0%) | 0.00 | 50.00% | 50.00% | 337 | 202 |
| Nebraska CD2 | Unknown (0.0%) | 0.00 | 50.00% | 50.00% | 338 | 201 |
| North Carolina | Trump +0.3% | +0.08 | 46.81% | 53.19% | 353 | 200 |
| Georgia | Trump +1.1% | +0.28 | 38.97% | 61.03% | 369 | 185 |
| Iowa | Trump 1.7% | +0.43 | 33.36% | 66.64% | 375 | 169 |
| Texas | Trump +3.5% | +0.88 | 18.94% | 81.06% | 413 | 163 |
| Missouri | Trump +6.4% | +1.60 | 5.48% | 94.52% | 423 | 125 |
Yikes. Biden's margins have dropped significantly in the rust belt, including Minnesota and Pennsylvania, and in Florida. I keep saying it, despite the sun belt strategy the democrats are trying, which might be successful long term, the rust belt is the crucial area for the democrats to defend. That, along with Florida, the current tipping point, are the states the democrats really need to work at defending. If Trump can break through there, he can win. And given the margins are currently around 2-5 points in these locations, if the polls are off by a couple of points like they were in 2016, Trump can get it. Say I reduced the tipping point margin of Florida by 3 points, that brings the margin of victory for Biden down to less than 1 point, which translates to around a 55% chance for Biden and a 45% chance for Hillary. That isn't good. That's literally almost the same odds I gave HRC on election day and look at how that turned out.
Now, assuming polls are accurate, I'm more inclined to give Trump an 18% chance of victory, while Biden has an 82% chance, but that really does assume polling is accurate, and of course these projections are snapshots in time, given the election were held today. If polling isn't accurate, like in 2016 where it did not properly detect the full extent of the movement toward Trump, I could be overestimating Biden's chances here. That said it is possible for Biden to screw this up just like Hillary did, and a second term for Trump is possible. I still given the edge to Biden, but how much of an edge he really has is anyone's guess. If Biden's numbers keep tanking, he's done. For numbers to shift that drastically in only a few days is not a good sign for Biden. Biden is not invincible. If you want Trump out and aren't taking a principled stand against the democrats, you better vote. That's all I'm gonna say. Don't get complacent.
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