There were just too many changes that I want to talk about. I might be doing these more often than I anticipated given we're so close to the election and I want to document everything for posterity's sake.
2 way: Biden +7.1%
4 way: Biden +7.8%
Not much has changed here from yesterday. On the state level though...
|
States |
Winner/Margin |
Z score |
% D Win |
% R Win |
EV D win |
EV R win |
| Biden +8.6% |
-2.150 |
98.4% |
1.6% |
232 |
322 |
|
| Biden +6.5% |
-1.625 |
94.8% |
5.2% |
233 |
306 |
|
| Biden +6.4% |
-1.600 | 94.5% |
5.5% |
243 |
305 |
|
| Biden +6.0% |
-1.500 |
93.3% |
6.7% |
253 |
295 |
|
| Biden +4.6% |
-1.150 |
87.5% |
12.5% |
259 |
285 |
|
| Biden +3.8% |
-0.950 |
82.9% |
17.1% |
279 |
279 |
|
| Biden +2.3% | -0.575 | 71.8% | 28.2% | 280 |
259 |
|
| Biden +2.2% |
-0.550 |
70.8% |
29.2% |
291 |
258 |
|
| Biden +1.4% |
-0.350 |
63.7% |
36.3% |
297 |
247 |
|
| Biden +0.7% |
-0.175 |
57.0% |
43.0% |
312 |
241 |
|
|
Tie +0.0% |
0.000 |
50.0% |
50.0% |
328 |
226 |
|
|
Tie:+0.0% |
0.000 |
50.0% |
50.0% |
357 |
210 |
|
|
Trump +0.6% |
+0.150 |
44.0% |
56.0% |
375 |
181 |
|
|
Trump +2.6% |
+0.650 |
25.8% |
74.2% |
413 |
163 |
|
|
Trump +6.0% |
+1.500 |
6.7% |
93.3% |
416 |
125 |
|
|
Trump +6.3% |
+1.575 |
5.8% |
94.2% |
425 |
122 |
|
|
Trump +7.5% |
+1.875 |
3.0% |
97.0% |
435 |
113 |
|
|
Trump +8.0% |
+2.000 |
2.3% |
97.7% |
438 |
103 |
Results
Chance of Biden win: 82.9%
Chance of Trump win: 17.1%
Deciding state: Pennsylvania at +3.8% Biden
Most likely electoral college outcome: 312-181 Biden with Georgia and Florida as literal ties (outcomes ranging from 357-181 Biden to 312-226 Biden).
There are a few things I want to discuss with this.
First of all removed Kansas because a +14 poll made me realize it doesn't belong here. Given Michigan's declining back in the 8-9 range I decided to keep it here as it's just out of my normal scope of things and I don't want to screw around and add it back in later.
That said Biden is still starting out with 216 while Trump is now at an even 100.
Second of all, Wisconsin had a huge shift toward Biden with a +17 poll out today. However, it was tempered by some weaker polls elsewhere. Still, it shifted Wisconsin in a much more democratic leaning direction. This is important because we're in that crucial end phase of the campaign and such an outlier is good news for Biden, showing an opposite trend from 2016 overall.
Third, I want to talk about ME2. ME2 had a recent poll that was Biden +4. However, due to lack of polling there RCP declined to put an average on ME2. This is potentially due to there being a Trump +8 extreme outlier shifting the averages significantly. Most polls in ME2 over the past few months have been in the Biden direction, but that one +8 one massively shifted the averages toward Trump. If I included it with the 2 +4 polls, in October, Trump would have a lead he quite frankly doesn't deserve. Wanting a more stable and reliable forecast, I applied an average to all 7 polls over the past 2 months to derive a fairly conservative Biden +2.3 lead. This sounds about right given the polling. It's one thing to have an outlier poll but you don't want something like that heavily skewing the averages due to a lack of other polls, but a clear trend the other way.
That said other than those things, the forecast is fundamentally unchanged. PA is still the tipping point state, with a 83.1% chance of a Biden win and a 17.1% chance of a Trump win, and that is arguably skewed toward the right too, since as I discussed yesterday, if two right wing polls were removed, Biden would be up 5.6% there, shifting the probabilities to a 92% chance for Biden and an 8% chance for Trump. Take that as you will. I don't want to not include polls just because they skew heavily a certain way. But at the same time you don't want them to shift the averages and because those do, I'm mentioning it here, as my forecast depends on that data.
Senate Forecast
|
States |
Winner/Margin |
Z score |
% D Win |
% R Win |
Seats D win |
Seats R win |
|
Peters 6.7% |
-1.675 |
95.3% |
4.7% |
46 |
55 |
|
|
Smith +5.8% |
-1.450 |
92.6% |
7.4% |
47 |
54 |
|
|
Kelly +4.4% |
-1.100 |
86.4% |
13.6% |
48 |
53 |
|
|
Gideon +4.0% |
-1.000 |
84.1% |
15.9% |
49 |
52 |
|
|
Greenfield +1.8% |
-0.450 |
67.4% |
32.6% |
50 |
51 |
|
|
Cunningham +1.6% |
-0.400 |
65.6% |
34.4% |
51 |
50 |
|
|
Perdue +0.6% |
+0.150 |
44.0% |
56.0% |
52 |
49 |
|
|
Graham +2.3% |
+0.575 |
28.2% |
71.8% |
53 |
48 |
|
|
Daines +3.3% |
+0.825 | 20.5% | 79.5% |
54 |
47 |
|
|
Marshall +4.0% |
+1.000 |
15.9% |
84.1% |
55 |
46 |
|
|
GOP +4.3%* |
+1.075 |
14.1% |
85.9% |
56 |
45 |
|
|
Cornyn +8.0% |
+2.000 |
2.3% |
97.7% |
57 |
44 |
Results
Chance of democratic control: 65.6%
Chance of republican control: 32.6%
Chance of a tie: 1.8%
Most likely outcome: 51-49 DEM
Not much has changed here. Cunningham went down in NC, reducing democrats' chances slightly, Purdue in GA also went down a bit, and I added Cornyn as he is right on that 8.0 mark. But all in all, the forecast is fundamentally the same as yesterday. Georgia 2 went up for the GOP primarily because this time I counted libertarian votes as republican as due to RCV I would imagine most of them would go for the GOP candidate.
All in all I expect my next forecast to be Friday or Saturday although I'll make another one whenever I see fit to do so. I want at least two more this election season. One around the weekend when polls normally calm down for a bit, and another going from Monday into Tuesday.
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