Mid October Election Predictions (10/13)

So it's been two weeks. A lot has happened since then. Trump had an awful debate where he just yelled over Biden and Biden seemed kinda weak in response. Then another debate where Pence tried a similar strategy with Harris and it didn't work well. And then Trump got COVID and recovered, and likely had it at the debate. It hasn't been a good two weeks for Trump. And polling reflects that. Biden is now in a very strong position to win, overtaking anything I predicted in 2016 with Hillary. While democrats shouldn't claim victory just yet because remember 2016, it's looking very good for Biden and I don't see how Trump can realistically recover. That said let's look at the data.

 General Election - Biden +10.0%

 4 Way -  Biden +8.8%

Now keep in mind, I don't think a spoiler effect exists here, rather the polling averages haven't shifted as much in the 4 way from last time due to less polling. Still, in both matchups, Biden has a commanding lead outside of a 4 point margin of error. The 2 way results report double digits between Biden and Trump. In both the 2 way and 4 way polls, Biden is at 51.6%, which means even if Trump won every undecided vote and third party vote at this point, he still can't win and would top out around 48%. Yikes. I'd say it's over, but hey, remember 2016.

 For the swing states, I'm removing New Hampshire from my analysis  because it's up by 10.5%, outside of the margin of error. It will be assumed "safe" for the purposes of this analysis as the chance for Trump to win it is under 2%. As for the rest:

States	Winner/Margin	Z Score	% Biden Win	% Trump Win	Electoral Votes if Biden Wins	Electoral Votes if Trump Wins
Pennsylvania	Biden +7.0%	-1.750	96.0%	4.0%	246	312
Michigan	Biden +7.0%	-1.750	96.0%	4.0%	262	292
Nebraska CD2	Biden +6.5%	-1.625	94.8%	5.2%	263	276
Wisconsin	Biden +6.3%	-1.575	94.3%	5.7%	273	275
Nevada	Biden +5.2%	-1.300	90.3%	9.7%	279	265
Florida	Biden +3.5%	-0.875	81.0%	19.0%	308	259
Arizona	Biden +2.7%	-0.675	75.1%	24.9%	319	230
North Carolina	Biden +2.7%	-0.675	75.1%	24.9%	334	219
Iowa	Biden +1.2%	-0.300	62.0%	38.0%	340	204
Ohio	Biden +0.6%	-0.150	56.0%	44.0%	358	198
Maine CD2	Trump +0.2%	+0.050	48.0%	52.0%	359	180
Georgia	Trump +0.4%	+0.100	46.0%	54.0%	375	179
Texas	Trump +4.4%	+1.100	13.6%	86.4%	413	163
South Carolina	Trump +5.5%	+1.375	8.5%	91.5%	422	125
Missouri	Trump +7.5%	+1.875	3.0%	97.0%	432	116

Ouch. Biden has a 94.3% chance of winning and Trump only has a 5.7% chance. A Biden win is just short of statistical significance. Now, again, does that mean he will DEFINITELY win? Well, many ballots are being cast now. And I doubt Trump can regain the energy he lost. Even if he regresses to the mean and gains say, 3-4 points, he would only be at 259 electoral votes with Florida. You'd literally need a Trump +6-7 scenario for him to WIN, which is extremely unlikely. Like, 4-7% level unlikely. Trump is toast. The electoral map is a commanding 358-180 win for Biden.

I mean, for reference, the highest I ever gave Hillary by this methodology is like a 85% chance, with Trump having a 15% chance. And Hillary's numbers fluctuated a lot with her going into the 50s. A bad day for Biden is a good day for Hillary. 

Now, how does the senate look?

Well for starters I added Texas into the mix as it's now technically "in play". I don't expect it to go red as it's barely in play but it's worth looking at. This brings the GOP's "safe senators down to 45. 

States	Winner/ Margin	Z Score	% Dem Win	% GOP Win	Senate Seats if Democrat Wins	Senate Seats if Republican Wins
Arizona	Kelly +8.0%	-2.000	97.7%	2.3%	47	54
North Carolina	Cunningham +5.7%	-1.425	92.3%	7.7%	48	53
Michigan	Peters +4.9%	-1.225	89.0%	11.0%	49	52
Iowa	Greenfield +4.8%	-1.200	88.5%	11.5%	50	51
Maine	Gideon +3.7%	-0.925	82.3%	17.7%	51	50
South Carolina	Graham +0.5%	+0.125	45.0%	55.0%	52	49
Georgia	Perdue +2.8%	+0.700	24.2%	75.8%	53	48
Montana	Daines +3.3%	+0.825	20.5%	79.5%	54	47
Texas	Cornyn +7.6%	+1.900	2.8%	97.2%	55	46

Based on this, the democrats have an 82.3% chance of winning the senate by the trend model. The republicans have a 11.5% chance by comparison. This means there's a 6.2% chance it's a 50-50 split. This is up from last time for the democrats, but is still far less certain than what will happen with the presidency.

All in all, it looks like the GOP are screwed. As I said I ain't even doing the house, but I doubt that is particularly going well for them either given they need virtually all swing seats just to achieve a narrow majority. Yikes. While we still have 3 weeks and a lot can change, this looks like a blow out for the democratic party. Bye Trump, you're fired! Or you will be a month from now, probably. 

For the record I'm probably gonna be doing these more frequently between now and the election. We're getting close so I'll likely be doing them once a week now unless literally almost nothing changes, and I will especially be paying close attention in the last week or two leading up to the election. If things change, I want it to be documented here so we can analyze what happens.