Election update 10/29

Let's get into it.

2 way: Biden +7.7%

4 way: Biden +7.6%

Going up for Biden a little.

States	Winner/Margin	Z score	% D Win	% R Win	EV D win	EV R win
Michigan	Biden +8.2%	-2.050	98.0%	2.0%	232	322
Nebraska CD2	Biden +6.5%	-1.625	94.8%	5.2%	233	306
Wisconsin	Biden +6.4%	-1.600	94.5%	5.5%	243	305
Minnesota	Biden +4.7%	-1.175	88.0%	12.0%	253	295
Nevada	Biden +4.6%	-1.150	87.5%	12.5%	259	285
Pennsylvania	Biden +4.3%	-1.075	85.9%	14.1%	279	279
Maine CD2	Biden +2.3%	-0.575	71.8%	28.2%	280	259
Florida	Biden +1.4%	-0.350	63.7%	36.3%	309	258
Iowa	Biden +1.0%	-0.250	59.9%	40.1%	315	229
North Carolina	Biden +0.7%	-0.175	57.0%	43.0%	330	223
Georgia	Biden +0.4%	-0.100	54.0%	46.0%	346	208
Arizona	Tie +0.0%	0.000	50.0%	50.0%	357	192
Ohio	Tie +0.0%	0.000	50.0%	50.0%	375	181
Texas	Trump +2.6%	+0.650	25.8%	74.2%	413	163
Alaska	Trump +6.0%	+1.500	6.7%	93.3%	416	125
South Carolina	Trump +6.5%	+1.625	5.2%	94.8%	425	122
Missouri	Trump +7.5%	+1.875	3.0%	97.0%	435	113
Montana	Trump +8.0%	+2.000	2.3%	97.7%	438	103

Chance of Biden win: 85.9%

Chance of Trump win: 14.1%

Deciding state: Pennsylvania at +4.3% Biden

Most likely outcome: 346-163 Biden (outcomes range between 346-192 Biden and 375-163 Biden)

Lots of changes. The forecast has become more pro Biden, which is bad for Trump. We're getting to the nitty gritty and it's do or die for Trump. And unlike 2016, things are largely moving back toward Biden. Sure, Minnesota and Arizona leaned more pro Trump, but largely because of blatantly right wing polls like Trafalgar and to a lesser extent Rasmussen. Interesting , Florida and Georgia are now slightly leaning Biden, while Arizona and Ohio are ties today. I'm glad Ohio got more polls, it's been criminally underpolled recently for such a close state. Arizona got brought down to coin flip territory due to a Trump leaning Rasmussen poll. 

We will have to see how this continues to develop. It seems very likely Biden will win, but the margin is really the question. Will it only be a 280 or so narrow lead? Or a 375 lead? It doesn't take much to go either way to make that difference. A lot of these southern sun belt states aren't reliable, and even the most red rust belt ones aren't reliable either. They could literally go either way. Biden might eek it out for a narrow win, or he could see a more commanding win. More extreme outcomes range from Biden losing to Trump Hillary style to a 400+ blowout.

I will say this, we're at the stage in the campaign where I can say this is not 2016. In 2016 my estimates 5 days out from the campaign dropped to the 55-60% range for Hillary. Here we are with a solid 86% lead and I don't see that going down substantively in the next few days. It could still happen, but that window is closing fast. Of course, given how rust belt states flipped in 2016, a pro Trump outcome isn't impossible and he could beat the odds again. However, I don't see a reason to believe he will.

Senate forecast

States	Winner/Margin	Z score	% D Win	% R Win	Seats D win	Seats R win
Michigan	Peters 7.6%	-1.900	97.1%	2.9%	46	55
Minnesota	Smith +6.3%	-1.575	94.2%	5.8%	47	54
Maine	Gideon +4.0%	-1.000	84.1%	15.9%	48	53
Arizona	Kelly +2.7%	-0.675	75.0%	25.0%	49	52
North Carolina	Cunningham +2.1%	-0.550	70.9%	29.1%	50	51
Iowa	Greenfield +1.5%	-0.375	64.6%	35.4%	51	50
Georgia 1	Perdue +0.2%	+0.050	48.0%	52.0%	52	49
South Carolina	Graham +2.5%	+0.625	26.6%	73.4%	53	48
Montana	Daines +3.3%	+0.825	20.5%	79.5%	54	47
Kansas	Marshall +4.0%	+1.000	15.9%	84.1%	55	46
Georgia 2	GOP +4.5%*	+1.125	13.0%	87.0%	56	45
Texas	Cornyn +7.5%	+1.875	3.0%	97.0%	57	44

Chance of democratic control: 64.6%

Chance of republican control: 29.1%

Chance of a 50-50 split: 6.3%

Most likely outcome: 51-49 DEM

Lots of changes. Arizona seems far worse, Michigan and Minnesota are more certain. Iowa and North Carolina, which are the deciding states, are still weak but in democratic control. Georgia 1 is a toss up. Texas is now more in play. It's interesting. All in all the chances for both parties went down slightly, with a tie being slightly more likely due to Cunningham's race leaning a bit more toward the democrats than it did.