Election update 11/1

 So lots of new polls. Let's get to it.

2 way: Biden +7.2%

4 way: Biden +7.6%

States	Winner/Margin	Z score	% D Win	% R Win	EV D win	EV R win
Michigan	Biden +8.3%	-2.025	97.9%	2.1%	232	322
Wisconsin	Biden +8.0%	-2.000	97.7%	2.3%	242	306
Pennsylvania	Biden +6.0%	-1.500	93.3%	6.7%	262	296
Minnesota	Biden +5.3%	-1.325	90.7%	9.3%	272	276
Nevada	Biden +4.0%	-1.000	84.1%	15.9%	278	266
Maine CD2	Biden +4.0%	-1.000	84.1%	15.9%	279	260
Nebraska CD2	Biden +3.0%	-0.750	77.3%	22.7%	280	259
Arizona	Biden +2.1%	-0.525	70.0%	30.0%	291	258
North Carolina	Biden +2.0%	-0.500	69.1%	30.9%	306	247
Florida	Biden +1.8%	-0.450	67.4%	32.6%	335	232
Ohio	Biden +0.8%	-0.200	57.9%	42.1%	353	203
Georgia	Biden +0.8%	-0.200	57.9%	42.1%	369	185
Iowa	Trump +0.4%	+0.100	46.0%	54.0%	175	169
Texas	Trump +2.3%	+0.575	28.3%	71.7%	413	163
Alaska	Trump +6.0%	+1.500	6.7%	93.3%	416	125
South Carolina	Trump +7.5%	+1.875	3.0%	97.0%	425	122
Missouri	Trump +7.5%	+1.875	3.0%	97.0%	435	113
Montana	Trump +8.0%	+2.000	2.3%	97.7%	438	103

Chance of a Biden win: 90.7%

Chance of a Trump win: 9.3%

Deciding state: Minnesota at +5.3%

Most likely electoral college map: 369-169 Biden

So, among weaker swing states, there has been a shift back toward the center overnight. Part of this is due to clearing out old data. For example a removed a NE2 Biden +7 poll from over a month ago from the averages and was left with a +3. I removed older polls from ME2 and got +4. On the flip side some states like Nevada and Iowa just weakened. I don't think it will make a huge difference, but it's something to think about. At the same time the rust belt, which is the key region, has strengthened. Pennsylvania is up by 6 once I remove the Trafalgar effect. Minnesota is now the key state due to being slightly weaker, and that bump's Biden's odds up to 91%. Not a huge shift but it is a shift.

Senate forecast

States	Winner/Margin	Z score	% D Win	% R Win	Seats D win	Seats R win
Michigan	Peters 7.0%	-1.750	96.0%	4.0%	46	55
Arizona	Kelly +5.7%	-1.425	92.3%	7.7%	47	54
Minnesota	Smith +5.0%	-1.250	89.4%	10.6%	48	53
Maine	Gideon +4.0%	-1.000	84.1%	15.9%	49	52
North Carolina	Cunningham +3.8%	-0.950	82.9%	17.1%	50	51
Georgia 1	Ossoff +0.7%	-0.175	56.9%	43.1%	51	50
Iowa	Ernst +0.6%	+0.150	56.0%	44.0%	52	49
Montana	Daines +1.0%	+0.250	59.9%	40.1%	53	48
Georgia 2	GOP +2.4%*	+0.600	27.4%	72.6%	54	47
South Carolina	Graham +2.5%	+0.625	26.6%	73.4%	55	46
Kansas	Marshall +4.0%	+1.000	15.9%	84.1%	56	45
Texas	Cornyn +7.5%	+1.875	3.0%	97.0%	57	44

Chance of democratic control: 56.9%

Chance of republican control: 15.9%

Chance of a tie: 27.2%

Most likely outcome: 51-49 DEM

While the conservative trend in Iowa might not mean anything as far as the presidential election goes it could negatively impact the senate balance. Ernst is now projected to win the Iowa senate seat, which loosens the democrats' grip on the senate. While Georgia is picking up the slack I'm not really confident in that either. Generally speaking I actually suspect we might end up with a 50-50 split, although 51 or even 52-53 seats are possible for democrats. I don't think the democrats will realistically get less than 50 though. Cunningham is just doing too good in North Carolina. 

There you have it, the second to last projection for this election cycle. Tomorrow will be the final one and I'll just continue to amend that one into Tuesday morning, much like 2016. Still, looking good for Biden, although the senate I'm less sure of now.