Election update 11/2-3 (FINAL)

 So we're at the end of another long, and in my left wing opinion, disappointing campaign season. Seriously, we had 20+ candidates, including people for medicare for all and basic income and this is the best we could do? But I'm not here to rant and rave about how much I hate both candidates and how I voted green again, I'm here to just bring you the electoral math (to be fair Biden is the lesser evil though). That said, here's how this is going to work. I'll post the charts, change the info to remove the aforementioned bad pollsters (ie, trafalgar and the two associated with the center of american greatness, these guys are bombing the polling averages to make Trump look better), and I'll post my thoughts about each swing state and what I think will happen. Then I will do something similar for the senate. I will be updating this final chart as the day goes on and new polls come in, and finalize it tomorrow before the polls close. That said, let's get into it.

 2 way: Biden +6.5%

4 way:  Biden +7.2%

Hmm, so Biden has taken a last minute hit. Still, he's ahead of where Hillary was on election day in 2016. 

States	Winner/Margin	Z score	% D Win	% R Win	EV D win	EV R win
Michigan	Biden +8.6%	-2.150	98.4%	1.6%	232	322
Wisconsin	Biden +8.3%	-2.075	98.1%	1.9%	242	306
Minnesota	Biden +5.0%	-1.250	89.4%	10.6%	252	296
Pennsylvania	Biden +4.8%	-1.200	88.5%	11.5%	272	286
Nevada	Biden +4.0%	-1.000	84.1%	15.9%	278	266
Maine CD2	Biden +3.7%	-0.925	82.3%	17.7%	279	260
Nebraska CD2	Biden +3.0%	-0.750	77.3%	22.7%	280	259
Florida	Biden +2.8%	-0.700	75.8%	24.2%	309	258
Arizona	Biden +1.5%	-0.375	64.7%	35.3%	320	229
North Carolina	Biden +1.0%	-0.250	59.9%	40.1%	335	218
Georgia	Biden +0.3%	-0.075	53.0%	47.0%	351	203
Ohio	Trump +0.5%	+0.125	45.0%	55.0%	369	187
Texas	Trump +1.2%	+0.300	38.2%	61.8%	407	169
Iowa	Trump +1.3%	+0.325	37.3%	62.7%	413	131
Alaska	Trump +6.0%	+1.500	6.7%	93.3%	416	125
South Carolina	Trump +7.5%	+1.875	3.0%	97.0%	425	122
Missouri	Trump +7.5%	+1.875	3.0%	97.0%	435	113
Montana	Trump +8.0%	+2.000	2.3%	97.7%	438	103

Chance of Biden winning: 88.5%

Chance of Trump winning: 11.5%

Tipping point: Pennsylvania at 4.8%

Most likely outcome: Biden 351-187

To go into each state:

Michigan: This is a solid blowout for Biden. I admit I had to change the data a bit here, not only removing pro Trump groups from poll bombing the average, but also adding another CNN poll back in which was removed for some reason despite being equally recent as the ones included. It was Biden +12. So it shifted it heavily toward Biden. I'm extremely confident this will go Biden.

Wisconsin: Ditto for Michigan. Solid state for Biden. Despite shifting 7.4% in 2016, I don't think that will happen this time and polling is extremely bullish for Biden here.

 Minnesota: Not polled very often, but the two most recent polls that aren't trafalgar are +5. This is partially because of lack of polling but it could also be lack of campaigning. Hopefully Minnesota won't feel ignored and go hard Trump like Wisconsin did in 2016, Minnesota almost turned red, but barely held on. I would expect it to do so this election too, by the way.

Pennsylvania: The dedicated tipping point state, not only in most of my forecasts, but everyone else's too. Trump NEEDS PA to win. He needs to sweep the board in the south, and THEN take PA to win. Or another rust belt state. But PA is seem as the weakest one. We have a ton of data on this state and other than the poll bombers, it's very strongly pro Biden. I think Trump is locked out of the electoral college honestly, although any path to victory requires taking PA or another similarly strong or stronger rust belt state.

Nevada: This went for Hillary in 2016, and the polls are all very strongly Biden. Weaker than the rust belt, but still respectable and pretty much a lock for Biden in my opinion.

ME2: Maine's second district went Trump in 2016 narrowly, but polls show it as having a solid 3-4 point lead there. There was an outlier Trump +8 discussed in a previous forecast, but that's old data and an extreme outlier. I'm guessing it will go Biden. 

NE2: Never thought I'd see the day Nebraska would be up for grabs. Even if it is a small part. Polling is scarce here but the one recent poll I could find is Biden +3. And older ones had him up 6-7. So it's likely going Biden.

Florida: This is where we start getting into the tricky states. This state, and the next 6, are the ones that are the most competitive this election cycle. They are also the hardest to predict. This one is relatively easy. It's been fairly consistently pro Biden for most of the election cycle and while recent polls had it close to going for Trump, once the Trafalgar effect was removed we can see a trend that has it going Biden by a decent margin.

Arizona: Arizona is a weird state. Traditionally conservative, it's one of the neoliberal darlings for the whole Sun Belt strategy the democrats insist on trying. It's been going blue since Trump got in and John McCain died. Still a conservative state, it's hard to predict. Still, it's been largely pro Biden for most of the cycle and while it has narrowed in the final days of the campaign, I still expect a Biden win here.

North Carolina: This is another hard to predict state. It's nominally pro Trump by 0.6% on RCP right now, but part of that is due to poll bombing. Removing those polls gives it an extremely narrow Biden lead. This state has narrowed significantly in the last days of the campaign. It COULD go Trump. But I personally think it's going to go Biden. It only appears to be pro Trump because of poll bombers and relatively recent favorable Biden polls being excluded for some reason. Biden has a lot more strength here than current averages on RCP seem to indicate.

Georgia: Okay, here we come to the REALLY hard ones. I'd argue that Georgia and Ohio are going to be the hardest to nail down this election cycle. Removing the Trafalgar effect, it seems to go very narrowly for Biden. Like 0.25%. That's nothing. I mean, it might as well be tied. Still, data is data and I'm going to call it for the democrats. I really have serious doubts it will go blue, I mean, the GOP is infamous for voter suppression here and we saw this same story in 2018, but I'm a data driven guy so I'm calling it for Biden.

Ohio: Polling is weird here too. It's nominally Trump +1.4%, but removing the Trafalgar effect brings it down to 0.5%. Still, recent polling, while mixed, does seem to have a redward trend to it. It could go either way, but I'm giving this one to Trump. 

Texas: Texas is the one really big state conservatives have held onto. Democrats have California and New York, republicans have Texas. And given the state of 2020, this is another state the neolibs are targetting in their sun belt strategy. However, normally a pretty red state, it's always out of reach for democrats. I expect that to remain the case this year. I don't think the democrats will win here. It's close, and they could win, and seeing almost a 40% chance for a democrat to win Texas is a concern for the future of the GOP, but polling is polling, and despite it narrowing and being competitive, I expect the GOP to keep it. 

Iowa: This is the one really swingey swing state that seems to be making a clean break for Trump as the last days of the race close. I think that this is very likely going to Trump. I just hope this doesn't mean bad things for its neighbors like Minnesota and Wisconsin, that whole region seemed to trend the same way in 2016...

Alaska, South Carolina, Missouri, Montana: Merely included for statistical purposes given the margins are less than 8 and in theory democrats could win here. However, the odds of it are very low, and should not be taken seriously.

All in all, this looks like it's going to be a blowout for Biden. Anyone fearing a 2016 scenario should read what I wrote in 2016 on election day. I had a 56% chance Clinton would win, and a 44% chance Trump would, with New Hampshire being the deciding state and a 272-266 likely outcome. The polling margins and electoral map are far more favorable for Biden this time. I do think there is a lot of uncertainty in the outcome, but mostly along the lines of how big a Biden win it will be. An overperformance for Biden leads to a 400+ electoral blowout as Biden takes Texas and Iowa, sweeping the entire map of swing states that are realistic to take. A swing toward Trump would mean a more narrow win, with Trump keeping southern states like North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona, and Biden only having a 280 or so electoral vote win. The path to a Trump 270 becomes increasingly more difficult, as Trump will need to sweep all those states and then manage to blow a hole in the rust belt somewhere, most notably Pennsylvania, which everyone is worried about, or alternatively Minnesota, which seems a bit weaker than everyone thinks it is. It's still strong, but if I had to guess a Trump surprise win at this point it wouldn't come from Pennsylvania where democrats have their guards up, but Minnesota, where it seems to be taken for granted as a blue state. Regardless, either outcome is very improbable with only a roughly 11% chance of happening. Meanwhile there's almost a 40% chance of the Biden takes Texas and sweeps the map blowout scenario. Realistically speaking though, I think a 351-187 outcome is most likely to happen. However I have serious doubts about Georgia and could see a 335-203 outcome happening. I mean, it's GEORGIA. It's a red state going blue by a thread. Either way though, I think anything between a 280-413 electoral win for Biden is well within the realm of possibility. We're really just debating the margins of victory here at this point.

Senate forecast

States	Winner/Margin	Z score	% D Win	% R Win	Seats D win	Seats R win
Arizona	Kelly +5.7%	-1.425	92.3%	7.7%	46	55
Michigan	Peters +5.4%	-1.350	91.1%	8.9%	47	54
Minnesota	Smith +5.0%	-1.250	89.4%	10.6%	48	53
Maine	Gideon +5.0%	-1.250	89.4%	10.6%	49	52
North Carolina	Cunningham +2.6%	-0.650	74.2%	25.8%	50	51
Georgia 1	Ossoff +0.7%	-0.175	56.9%	43.1%	51	50
Iowa	Ernst +0.7%	+0.175	56.9%	43.1%	52	49
Montana	Daines +1.0%	+0.250	40.1%	59.8%	53	48
Georgia 2	GOP +2.6%*	+0.650	25.8%	74.2%	54	47
Kansas	Marshall +4.0%	+1.000	15.9%	84.1%	55	46
South Carolina	Graham +4.5%	+1.125	13.0%	87.0%	56	45
Texas	Cornyn +7.5%	+1.875	3.0%	97.0%	57	44

Chance of democratic control: 56.9%

Chance of republican control: 25.8%

Chance of a 50-50 split: 17.3%

Most likely outcome: 51-49 DEM

To go into each state:

Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Maine: Not much to say here, all strong democratic leaning seats that will bring the democrats up to at least 49 seats. Whatever else happens, I think the hard limit for the GOP this time is 51 seats.

North Carolina: This has been a fairly contentious race and it has narrowed a lot in the last days. While Cunningham is favored to win and this will bring the senate up to a 50-50 split, there is an almost 30% chance the republicans will win here and thus control the senate. Not the most likely outcome, but the same rough outcome as Pennsylvania going for Trump in 2016, to put it into context.

Georgia 1: While Ossoff is slightly favored to win, Perdue has been the long time favorite here and this shift toward Ossoff is very recent. Moreover, it's by less than a point. I have doubts that the democrats can win here, but it's possible and even slightly favored. Data is data.

 Iowa: This has been in the democratic camp until recently, but much like on the electoral college level, Iowa is going hard red as of late, and the democrats are no longer favored to win here. Which puts their control of the senate into question. Democrats can win either here, or in Georgia, to take the senate, the real question is...will they? And I have my doubts. 

Montana: I have no idea what's going on here. It's surprising Montana is within realistic reach for the democrats, but it is. Still, I expect this to go GOP. 

Georgia 2: This is that open senate seat up for election with ranked choice voting. Polling favors the GOP, especially once libertarian votes (libertarians lean GOP and I'd expect most of them to vote republican before democrat) are counted as GOP votes. Still, the democrats can win here. I really have no idea what's going to happen.

Kansas, South Carolina, Texas: While there was some controversy over Lindsey Graham earlier this year, polls are clear that he's favored to win there. I expect all three of these seats to go conservative, meaning the upper realistic limit of democratic control of the senate is 54 seats.  

And there you have it. Ultimately, the democrats are favored to win the senate, but the result is far less of a lock than Biden's electoral college chances. I would expect at least a 50-50 split, perhaps a 51-49 democratic victory, but at the same time, anything between 49-53 seats for the democrats is realistic. Who knows what will happen?

House forecast

I'm just going to copy and paste what I wrote the other day.

I always wanted to do a house forecast but lacked the data. There are too many races to keep track of, and many don't have polls. However, I thought of a workaround. I only need FOUR democratic leaning seats to calculate the probability of republican/democratic control of the house, because of the 39 swing districts, the democrats only need to win 4 of them to win the house. So what can I find?

IA1: Dem 10.0%

IA2: Dem 9.0%

IA3: Dem 11.0%

NY22: Dem +9.0% 

Yeah, that didn't take long. 4 "swing" districts all above 8 points. Weakest one being 9 points. That's a 2.25 Z score, which means:

Chance of democratic control: 98.8%

Chance of republican control: 1.2%

Yeah, democrats are winning the house, it's pretty much statistically significant. 

 Conclusion

Well, there you have it. I am fully confident (99%) that the democrats will take the house, very confident (89%) of them winning the presidency, but far less certain (57%) over the fate of the senate. It will be interesting to watch.  

https://www.270towin.com/maps/QnXNy