So who is going to win the Georgia runoffs?

 So, I kind of misunderstood the Georgia races when they were going on. I thought GA2 was doing ranked choice voting, but in reality they were doing runoff voting, meaning there's a second round of voting between the top two candidates on January 5th. And because both candidates in GA1 failed to clear 50%, there's going to be a runoff rematch between them also on January 5th. And because the democrats did such a terrible job down ballot, the best case scenario is for a split senate assuming the democrats win both of these races, which essentially amounts to democratic control because Harris is tie breaker. That said I'm going to look at the polling and this time I won't be removing trafalgar or anything. While Georgia seemed to be the least off of the states I studied this past election, I still feel like removing trafalgar ended up being a bad decision. While Trafalgar obviously did bad data and was right for the wrong reasons, the fact is removing them skewed polls to be more democratic leaning than they turned out to be. So I'm going to include them this time for now. That said, let's get to it.

Georgia 1: Ossoff (D) +0.8%

So the democrat is actually ahead here narrowly. Now, this is very much in contentious territory. When you're below a point, things could easily swing either way. Heck, in this past election, anything within that 98% confidence of 8 points either way is going to be technically in place. But at this level of polling, Ossoff only has a 58% chance of winning the election, and Perdue still has a 42% chance. That's toss up territory. 

Georgia 2: Warnock (D) +1.8%

Warnock seems to have a much stronger lead vs Kelly Loeffler, as Warnock seems more popular and Loeffler is making many missteps that are alienating people, but like GA1, this can still go either way. Warnock has a 67% chance of winning, and Loeffler has a 33% chance. 

That said...assuming the trend model between the two, democrats have a 58% chance of control the senate while republicans have a 42% chance. Democrats can still pull it off, but ultimately they need both seats. All republicans need is one and they maintain their majority.We'll see how this plays out in a few days but this is going to be a close one.