So, this is a post I've been having in my head recently, and it's asking, how COULD the dems dig themselves out of the mess they have now, before 2024? Quite frankly, I'm not sure that they could, even if they embraced a left wing platform.
Here's the thing. Biden and the dems dug themselves into a hole, and are facing unique circumstances that put them in a VERY BAD position for the 2022 midterms and 2024. We got here, primarily because of the dems' propensity to compromise, but also because the timing is bad. Timing is everything. I've said it before, I seriously wonder, had the republicans won in 1976, if we'd live in the same country today, and I have to wonder that about 2016 onward.
Under a traditional set of circumstances, the answer to me would be obvious. Distance yourself from centrism, run someone to the left. But as someone, on a message board I frequent pointed out, it's not 2016 any more, and that energy might be gone.
We could stand to reason that this is the case, and that events of the past 6 years have put the dems in a bad position.
Think about it, in 2016, we were in a position where we were coming off of the great recession. Numbers on spreadsheet were good, but despite the low unemployment numbers, we still felt the recession. Other than temporary aid we had little to no progress on issues, and the dems just sat there looking all pretty talking about job creation and how they couldnt do anything because "democracy is hard work", and "I'm not a king". While I can understand Obama's hands were tied, in the 2014 mid terms, I would've argued the dems could've fared better had they took the fight to the republicans and pointed to the obstruction and said GIVE ME A CONGRESS, AND I'LL PASS ALL OF THESE THINGS WE NEED.
But...Obama didn't do that. He was a pushover, and outside of my own state of PA where we wanted to get Corbett out, the dems suffered nationwide losses as they got destroyed all over the country.
In 2016, it could've been argued that we needed someone like say, Bernie Sanders, or given my current politics, Andrew Yang, and I'm almost certain that they could've won independents on the rust belt.
But...that was the 2016 moment, 2016 was either a realigning election year or a precursor to such, and I would argue a lot of those white working class independents shifted toward Trump since then. They started seeing the economy as good, and started believing in MAGA, and got sucked down alt right rabbit holes, blah blah blah.
In 2020, the environment we ended up with was totally different. And it was largely due to COVID. COVID introduced new debates in the country that strengthened the "economy" argument in favor of the GOP. While Trump was in charge, and handled covid VERY poorly, the GOP had an economic argument to make. it went like this. "Those democrats want to implode the economy and shut everything down to keep people safe", we want to open stuff back up again even if it means people will die. And sadly, we learned almost half the country literally is that sociopathic they'd let old people and min wage workers die if it meant they can go to ihop for brunch again.
Still, due to Trump being the leader of the country, and handling COVID poorly, enough people were sane enough to barely elect Biden. But it was close. And honestly Trump still got record votes himself.
But that leads us to where we are today. What really defined 2020, was COVID and it was a referendum against Trump. The dems didn't win because they had a mandate or were popular, they won because they were the "not trump" candidate. Biden had the charisma of wallpaper and his agenda was equally unambitious.
And while I would have possibly argued a further left view would've went over in 2020 given people liked the stimulus checks and we should've been providing for people all along, now, as the economy reopens, we have the kinds of economic conditions deadly to democrats.
For most of my adult life, the big problem with the economy has been that workers have been screwed. There aren't enough jobs. pay is low. And people are mistreated and unhappy. But in 2021, we finally got the tables turned. But now...we have inflation. And we're in the age of the "anti work" movement taking off. And while I'm a proud supporter of that, it's wearing on independents. Independents dont like being screwed at work. They dislike low pay and bad opportunities, but at the end of the day, they still want that brunch at ihop, and dont care how many have to suffer to get there. And the upper class people? Forget it. The upper class in this country is blindly ignorant and sociopathic of their fellow man, not willing to go without minor creature comforts that require literal servants to provide for a period of time to ensure better worker rights.
So now, as the price of goods and services goes up from supply shortages, and people quit their jobs leading to longer wait times, more expensive services, and lower quality service, these entitled people who at this point just want to go back "to normal" are screaming. They're posting "no one wants to work any more" memes. They're complaining about inflation. And they're laying the blame squarely on the democrats.
Now, I'm gonna be honest, these systemic problems are NOT the democrats' fault. But, much like during Carter, republicans are masters of propaganda and spin and are good at taking advantage of a cranky populace who wants cheap crap during bad times, to paint it as a democratic problem. I mean, now those $1400 checks and expanded unemployment are being blamed for inflation and work avoidance. It doesn't matter if it's true. What matters is if people think it's true. And given the dems have been for regulations on masks, and giving people money, they're coming under assault from a GOP looking to argue that things were better under trump. And I think they can make a good case. Not because of anything Biden or Trump did, but just appealing to the zeitgeist of the time. "Remember how great things were in 2019? We wanna go back to that", is just enough to get a wide variety of americans on board.
Meanwhile, Biden is just...stuck. he isnt doing anything for some, but for others hes seen as doing too much. Americans dont like to take their medicine. Literally. And they're blaming the left for vaccine and mask mandates, and shutting down businesses, and none of this wouldve happened if we just kept things open, and giving people money is bad, and blah blah blah. Again, none of this stuff is true, but because the average American thinks in terms of emotions and nostalgia, and not policy, it's working. Which is why the GOP is poised to win by a landslide.
ironically, by being as moderate as he is, Biden is guaranteeing, in this environment, that everyone hates him. The left hates him because he's ineffectual and not doing anything. The right hates him because this wouldnt be happening if our orange god emperor with glorious blonde hair were in charge. And sadly, that means the dems are screwed.
And here's the thing about moving left. Again...2016...isn't 2022. The problems are different. The problem isnt as much that people cant get jobs or jobs pay badly. Due to the fact that theres more people who wanna hire than workers available due to a combination of covid deaths, boomers retiring, and people staying home to take care of kids or avoid the pandemic in general, they cant get the workers they need. And given the inflation due to supply shortages, left wing ideas like giving people money or encouraging widespread worker strikes aren't going to win over the masses. Because the masses are selfish, and that pendulum of self interest has swung from left wing ideas to argue for better working conditions and pay and maybe even questioning the idea of work itself in my case, to trying to go back to normal so middle class people can go to brunch like they did in 2019.
That's the messed up thing about America. THings stay the same because just enough people are comfortable enough with the status quo that they dont want change, and fight against change. If the system benefits 55% of the people at the expense of the other 45%, you'll have glacially slow progress if no progress at all. And people like the status quo, as crappy as it is for someone like, say, me. They would love to see me enslaved, and serving them french fries at mcdonalds, because if they cant get their fries cheaply and right now, that's a "problem" that needs to be solved for them. This is why our economy is so screwed.
I never realized the average american was this sociopathic, but here we are. And if they're fighting like this vs Biden, who is basically not really responsible for these problems, he just inherited them and hasnt been able to do anything about him due to being stonewalled at every point, then what will they do against someone like say, me?
Would Bernie be able to win in this environment? probably not. Because the solutions dont meet the problems any more. ANd honestly, Bernie's solutions were never that great. Again, I'm starting to see why people turned on the new dealers during the carter years. That paradigm was never that great, and then you get a little inflation and supply shortages to the mix and everyone loses their mind. Suddenly, Ronald Reagan sounds like a great idea. And we're kind of in that environment again. It's one of the reasons I feel malaise about politics again.
Now, that said, if the dems ran someone further left, could it work? Eh...maybe? I actually think someone who is more capitalist and who can pivot a bit better like yang COULD work. Like, despite this, I actually think Yang STILL might be a good candidate. Why? because he has cross party appeal. Republicans like him...until they find he has that D after his name. he talks in ways that people can relate to them. And he, the basic income guy, would probably ACTUALLY be able to market worth a crap, arguing that "hey, no, the problem isnt UBI or giving people money, it's XYZ". Like...that's a problem the centrist dems fall into. They end up ruining it for the left by buying into right wing talking points. like Biden is starting to go all republican on covid where he's getting lax with it and starting to sweep it under the rug and pretend the problem doesnt exist. As the meme goes, 2020: shut everything down, 2021: get the vaccine, 2022: it is what it is. Biden just cares about normalcy no matter the cost and will pivot right in a desperate attempt to save face with the right, even though they'll hate him no matter what he does. Because it isnt about policy for the right. It's about who is in charge. When trump is in the right forgets all about the problems and blames them on dems. When a dem is in charge, they blame them on dems.
A lot of dems do this too. That's why the progressives hate on the pink hat type dems who liked clinton. When the argument is "we wanna go back to brunch", the center likes that message, but the actual left hates it. But lets face it, the normal left is just gonna take about solutions that wont do anything and sticking it to millionaires and billionaires, and i dont think those are the issues on most peoples' minds. Not to mention most dems like way too bureaucratic solutions for them to appeal to the average american. its like the average american wants something different than what the traditional left offers. That the traditional left isnt that great.
That's why I think Yang would be good. He can promote left wing ideas like UBI and M4A...while still being relatable. And I could see him being dynamic enough to pivot to the right, and actually explain the problems to the american people, while countering traditional right wing talking points. And because he is an independent left leaner, he still might be able to reach some on the right.
It ISNT 2016 any more. And I'd argue Bernie's moment has come and gone. Traditional left wing solutions arent gonna be workable in these troubling times. What we need to do is raise interest rates to put the brakes on the economy a bit so that there arent so many excess jobs, and inflation goes down, and THEN, we can talk about UBI and M4A again. This would be painful for a lot of Americans...but that's ultimately what laid the success for Reagan. The 1982 recession. It ended stagflation, and got the economy in a working state. We need to do that. And then, we can start arguing for left wing solutions from there.
But we can't do much as long as theres a "worker shortage" and as long as there's inflation. Left wing ideas look really bad in that context. So...raise interest rates, maybe cause a mini recession, and then come back with an actual New New Deal to solve the economic problems as we know them. If we get the economy under control, and THEN push for our solutions, things will work better. But nothing is gonna work as long as we're still reeling from pandemic induced shortages and inflation.
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