So, this one is going to be short, it's only one race. And the data is pretty clear cut. So the runoff is going to be next Tuesday on the 6th. And the polls have Warnock an average of 3.2% ahead. This puts him at about a 78.8% chance of winning, and Walker at a 21.2% chance of winning. I like those odds, and that is a lot more optimistic than what I assumed. While polls can be off and our optimism should be cautious, I do think Warnock has a very good chance of winning based off of that number. 3 points is a decent buffer that can give me a reasonable degree of certainty that this outcome is likely.
I may update this prediction if I see reason to before Tuesday, but those are my estimates.
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