New map tool and proving once again that Biden couldn't have won

 So, while the results aren't entirely in, I was able to develop a rough map of the actual election results. I do expect some states to maybe shift margins slightly from this still, but it's close enough that it will allow me to address the Biden would've won question more accurately. Because for some reason resist libs' big argument is now that "if we didn't replace Biden he would've won because he did in 2020." And we have overwhelming evidence that this is a lie.

So...here's the election map Harris had:

Btw, results are from NBC's website. 

As we can see, Harris lost by a margin of 1.6 in the popular vote, and 1.7 in the electoral college. Why is the electoral college matching up with the popular vote now? because Harris underperformed massively in swing states. Not only are red leaning states like 4-6 points more red than expected, but a lot of blue leaning ones like New Jersey, New York, and Illinois actually were a lot closer than expected too. So basically, the republicans' electoral college advantage eroded simply because the democrats' share of the vote in non competitive states eroded. 

Now, before I modify this map, I'm going to post these again.

This is Biden's polling data as of dropping out:

Yeah the map was a lot worse than what I predicted for Harris. And as we can see, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois did make it onto this list. So those trends were real, and picked up in polling when Biden was still in office. That will come in play a bit later as I work with the new maps to simulate a few more possible Biden projections, but before I do, I want to also share this trend map, as it accurately represents the Biden situation.

This is the electoral college trend map. As we can see, Biden dropping out had a MASSIVE effect in improving democratic numbers. Under Biden, the numbers were terrible, even before the debate. After the debate, Biden tanked to apocalyptic levels. Replacing him with Harris greatly improved democratic odds, where things went to tossup territory. And while I admit, harris did decline in october, keep in mind, given the polling error, she wouldn't have won either. The dems underperformed 1.7 nationally relative to expectations and given how she was only, at most one point ahead, it just wasn't enough. 

Still, that's not bad, compared to what we've learned since the election about Biden's polling. I remember some leaked polls had us losing new mexico, and a new polling data seems to suggest that while harris only lost by 2, Biden would have lost by 9. This is what that would look like, btw.

This actually does seem to actually lineup with that one leak. We were losing Virginia, which was reflected in actual polling, we would've lost maine, minnesota, and new hampshire. We would've lost NEW MEXICO. And We would've even lost NEW JERSEY! Yikes. That is a devastating map. This is Obama 2008 for republicans.

Oh, and let's not forget the Pod Save America 400+ map discussed. Yeah, here's that in this model with the actual results:

Here's the new version of that that didnt have washington turning red either. Yeah, this is what it would've taken to actually do that. Losing by TWELVE relative to what we did.

So yeah. Don't let anyone try that nonsense with you about how if only we kept Biden in the race he would've won. Polling indicates that yeah, not only would he have lost, but a narrow loss would've been replaced with a massive butt kicking. 

Harris actually did save the party enough to actually not be completely in the hole and on the verge of losing everything. And we can come back from this in 2028. If we kept Biden in the race? The democratic party would've been repudiated on a level not seen since the 1980s. Never forget that. We did damage control with harris. And I don't think she was perfect. But she did resoundingly better than Biden would have.