So, I notice some on the left keep trying to push their own version of the "big lie" and claim that Trump (or Elon) stole the election. The strongest evidence for that comes from some strange comments Trump made on inauguration day about Musk knowing about PA voting machines or something. Look, on that, I will say, that's a bit suspicious. I do think that maybe we should be investigating such remarks, I mean, worst case scenario we find nothing. But let's face it, are the results themselves that out of the ordinary or implausible? No. A 226-312 victory was pretty expected. If we go by raw percentiles in my model, we were talking a 29% chance. It was the most likely of any single outcome in the distribution. Keep in mind, my prediction was the MEDIAN prediction.
Keep in mind, this is my model on election day. Median outcome, 251-287, Harris wins Michigan and Wisconsin but loses the other 5 swing states. Trump had a 54% chance to win overall, and the 226-312 outcome ranged from the 16th percentile to the 45th. You know? Nothing is that out of the ordinary, it's expected that the model be at least a little off. it performed on par with my expectations. 2 states wrong, both wrong by less than a 1 point. That's average.
As such, unless we have extraordinary evidence of some sort of fraud or controversy, can we stop questioning the results? And yes, I do think that Trump's comments raise enough suspicion to talk about the idea that maybe something funky happened. I just don't think, given the actual results, that we can say that it was due to specific fraud in specific states. Trump swept all 7 swing states, he overperformed even in deep red and blue states. he won. It was legit. It was a national trend toward the right, and the polling indicated that this was coming from a mile away. So yeah, unless we can point to specific things, I'm going to say this was a legit outcome.
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