Election Update: 11/2-3/26 FINAL

 So....I think the dust has finally settled on the predictions, I'm not sure, if not, I'll keep amending this post, but at this point, i think the predictions are in where I feel semi safe in posting them. 

Senate

 The odds for the senate went really bonkers for democrats in the past 24-48 hours. It's mental how much things have shifted, but at this point, I have to conclude that YES, the energy is on the side of the democrats. Republicans seem completely demoralized, and democrats are extremely motivated to turn out. This is leading to a blue tsunami and a national environment I haven't seen since my 2006-2008 days as a former republican. They seem completely doomer pilled by this point, and for good reason. What's the reason for this? Well, if we go by the trend chart, I think the answer is clear, the fatal blunder of the republicans was Trump's war in iran and the gas prices. 

 Now, in all fairness, data was sparse before May, but i still had SOME polling data that was significantly more in favor of the republicans, like 4-5 points or so in swing states, but things started swinging for democrats HARD come late april/early may, and the environment remained D favored for the rest of the election cycle. 

As we enter the final day of the election season, with election day itself being tomorrow, the republicans' chances of holding the senate have plummetted to a mere 18%, with the democrats having a 76% chance of taking the chamber. Back in 2025, I outlined a map in which I showed the senate to be a long shot, but the republicans screwed up so hard that not only are the democrats favored to win the senate, but their path to victory is closing. They would need not just everything in their column, but they'd need to keep Alaska, which they very well might, but then they'd face an extremely steep uphill battle to keep Texas, Ohio, and Maine. The odds of them doing this is, again, 18%. It can happen, and I don't think we should be overconfident, but we're past the point where a R+1.5 overperformance, or even a R+2-2.5 one will do it. They'd need to overperform closer to 3 just to keep a tie, and they'd need to overperform closer to 4 to keep the senate outright. I don't think it's happening, even if the republicans overperform. Meanwhile if democrats overperform, they'll take Iowa, and then be digging into states that in a normal election year should NEVER be even close to going blue. We got Louisana, South Carolina, Nebraska, and Mississippi up for grabs, assuming a ceiling of a 4 point overperformance in the democrats' direction. It's nuts. 

Still, I'm going to go with the forecast to the letter here, assuming a 54-46D outcome, with a 76% chance the democrats take the chamber. (Yes Im assuming Iowa goes D). 

House

So...here's the FULL house forecast chart:

See why I tend to abridge it? Here's the TLDR version:

And here's the map to go along with it (note: some coloring might be off, congressional house maps are a nightmare to fill out and I had to make the margins 2/5/10 for a contest when I'd normally make them 1/4/8). 

 

Basically, if you thought the senate was bad for republicans, the GOP is especially screwed on the house. I predict a 98% chance the democrats will take control of the chamber, with the most likely outcome being a 240-195D map. This is apocalyptic for republicans in the current environment. 

If people wonder about the fundamentals only forecast, that one is at 237-198D with a 99.5% chance democrats win. Once again, it's more certain but it has a slightly lower margin of victory. It will be interesting to see which model actually performs better, but the official one is the polling one. 

 Governors

 

Even the governors races have shifted hard left with Georgia and Kansas now in the D column. Overall, it's predicted we'll have 29 governors being democrats and 21 being republicans. And yes, I'm assuming Oregon goes blue here, despite it being a 50-50 tossup on my model. 

Conclusion

All in all, the model predicts a blue wave. However, as we know, these are statistical models that translate polling averages from RCP into actual odds, and as we know, the results are never exact. We could see these models be WAY too bullish for democrats where republicans overperform relative to them. This could lead to a relatively messy election night like 2016, 2020, and 2024. However, given its a midterm, and the republicans are REALLY in the dog house, if anything, I think democrats might overperform even this. I don't know. The only race I feel relatively safe calling contrary to my model is maybe Iowa. At a 49% chance of going democrat, yeah, that could easily flip. It is a tossup. Even then, I'm gonna let the model speak for itself. Same with races like Kansas and Georgia in the governors. They WERE lean R until the last minute. I kinda think RCP changed the averages to reflect what THEY think will happen, as they were around R+1.5 until today. Still, who knows? Again, it's possible everything is so bullish on democrats that it ends up being right. Idk. I'll just let the model do the talking and recognize that these models are fallible and can change. 

But yeah, that's my predictions for 2026. These predictions are FINAL unless RCP changes their averages yet again, but I think they already did all that. I kinda went away for a few hours this evening and let them cook and yeah, this is the result. So I'll go by what they say, but yeah. 

BLUE WAVE, BABY! WOO!!!! 

EDIT: Had to update some charts because RCP made last minute changes to some of their averages.