So I figured I would discuss the developments in the polls, look at the electoral college, etc., to determine what is going on with the election and to make predictions. I made a post a few weeks ago, which I ported over, and I will likely be making more predictions every few weeks, maybe more closer to election time.
Aggregate polling
Aggregate polling has Clinton at 45%, and Trump at 40.7%, giving Clinton a 4.3% lead. That's significant, and if I recall, similar to the numbers Romney had against Trump. Compared to my last post on 6/19 though, Trump is closing on Hillary though. There she had a 6 point lead, and that has shrunk to 4.3%. Last time Clinton had 45%, while Trump had 39%. So more people don't seem to be flocking to Clinton, but Trump is gaining more steam. We will need to keep an eye on this.
If this were expanded to a four way race, Clinton would be at 40.3%, Trump would be at 36.3%, with the lead being four points. It does not seem to be that third parties are spoiling the results much, because the lead is roughly the same, and Clinton only lost 0.3% net against Trump. Johnson has 7.3%, Stein had 3.6%. This is fairly impressive for third parties.
Electoral college
Real clear politics currently has Clinton with 210 safe electoral votes, with Trump having 164. However, I would only give 156 to Trump since it's come to my attention that some sources suggest Kentucky is in play. It's only had one poll on the area, but it leaned +3 toward Clinton, which is surprising for a solid red state, and as such, I'm going to treat it as a swing state for now. So let's assume Clinton has 210 votes, with Trump having 156 locked down.
Without further ado, let's look at the swing states.
Arizona
I was surprised last time to see Arizona being competitive, and thinking it was a fluke, I was hard pressed to count it as a swing state. Looking at it now, holy crap, it's actually competitive. It's only leaning 0.5% toward Clinton, and could go either way. Some polls give it to Trump, some give it to Clinton. It's very hard to count states with less than a 1% lead, so this needs to have an eye kept on it.
Colorado
Last time, Colorado had me confused. It had one poll, from months ago, and it led heavily toward Trump. This seemed odd to me, but I counted it as the data suggested. Well, we have new polling data, and Clinton is a staggering 7 points ahead here. It seems very likely she will win this.
Florida
Florida seems to be swinging toward Trump. Older polling data had it going slightly toward Clinton, but two new polls give it Trump +3 and Trump +5. All in all the aggregates are giving it a 0.2% lead in favor of Trump. This is another state that could go either way. Again, these under 1 point races are very close and it's hard to know what will happen here. This is another state we'll need to keep an eye on.
Georgia
Georgia is currently 4.2 points in favor of Trump, and this should surprise no one. The only surprise here is Trump is ONLY 4 points ahead here. He should be more all things considered.
Iowa
Despite one poll slightly favoring Trump, Iowa still largely seems to be going toward Clinton. She's 3.8% ahead, which is pretty significant.
Kentucky
Again, it's only one poll, but PPP has Kentucky going +3 in favor of Clinton. This is surprising, but we should still be wary of the results as it's only one poll and it seems out of place given its political history and status as a red state.
Michigan
Michigan doesn't seem to be polled recently, but I have trouble considering it a swing state anyway. It's heavily going toward Clinton and I expect her to win there.
Nevada
A recent poll has Clinton ahead by 4 here. Still, keep an eye on it, since it's only one poll.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire is leaning 2.7% in favor of Clinton. This is down from like 4.something a few weeks ago.
North Carolina
Clinton is making inroads here and is currently 0.7% ahead of Trump here. This state is competitive and can go either way.
Ohio
Clinton is 1.3% ahead here, although this is lower than I remember it last time I looked at it.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania, my home state by the way, is still 3.2% in favor of Clinton, although if I recall, she was ahead by over 4 last time I checked the polling. Still, this is a pretty significant margin regardless.
Virginia
Clinton is ahead by 4 points in Virginia, and this is pretty significant. I would expect her to win here if trends continue.
Maine CD2
Apparently Maine has a split electoral vote system going on, and their second district made up of one electoral vote has a poll making it lean 1% in Trump's favor. Still, considering how it's only one poll, and how it's only by one point, I'm not sure if this is significant. Still worth keeping an eye on.
The big picture
All in all, Trump has made some gains in some swing states, and I feel like this race is a bit more competitive than it was last time. However, Clinton has also made progress in some states like Arizona and North Carolina, which often lean conservative. It's really going to be exciting to look at how this race develops.
All in all, this is what the race looks like now. I am basically going to not give states with less than a 1% lead toward either candidate in my first scenario because they really can go either way.
Most accurate scenario with toss ups
As we can see, Clinton still has a solid death grip on the electoral college here. Even excluding the toss ups that can go either way, Clinton has 310 electoral votes with Trump having 172. If all these three and a quarter states went to Trump, Clinton would win 310 to 228. If Clinton takes all 3.25, she wins by 366 to 172, which is a landslide. The most accurate scenario without the toss ups, with the states going to the candidates they respectively lean toward, with Clinton taking Arizona and North Carolina and Trump taking Florida and Maine's extra electoral district, the results are 336 to 202. This is essentially my best guess of how the election will come our based on the data currently available.
Most accurate scenario, no toss ups
Trump needs to make some serious inroads to have a chance of winning. He's coming up in a few states, but nowhere near enough to win. If we gave him every state he has less than 2 points in, this is what the electoral college would look like.
Current data, Trump +2
This is what the map looks like if Trump makes a gain of two points. He has all the current toss ups and Ohio, giving him 246 electoral votes to Clinton's 292. Clinton still wins. If we give Trump a 3 point handicap:
Current data, Trump +3
Here, she loses New Hampshire, and Kentucky could go either way, but I gave it to Trump because we're looking at scenarios in which Trump can win. here we bring it down to 280 to 258, which should make Clinton sweat a little, since she's also technically in the danger zone in Pennsylvania and Iowa. She could take a hit in Iowa and still win, but if she loses Pennsylvania at this stage, she's done. She's screwed. If we were to give Trump a 4 point handicap, he would take Iowa, Pennsylvania, and have a 50-50 shot in Nevada and Virginia, which I'll give to them in this scenario.
Current data, Trump +4
Now, I'm just trying to show you what it will take for Trump to win here. He would need to overcome his current polling data by a margin of roughly 4 points to win the election. I'm not saying this will happen, it's a possible scenario, but it's unlikely in my opinion. All in all Clinton has a lot of breathing room here. She's poised to win by a landslide, and even if Trump comes up a couple more points in the polls, she still has a solid grip on the electoral college. She could lose major swing states like Ohio and Florida, and still come out smelling like roses. That's just how far Clinton is ahead all things considered. I was actually considering running some scenarios to see how much Clinton would improve her successes with skewing the data, and I found she wouldn't improve much past the 366-172 scenario above. It turns out, outside of those states where she's less than a point behind, the only state she could realistically take on top of the toss ups is Georgia, and she would need to get a good 4-5 points in the polls for that to happen. So, Clinton is pretty secure, and most swing states are leaning her way. The ones that aren't could go toward either candidate all things considered, and Clinton could win without them.
Conclusion
While Trump has been making inroads on Clinton in some states, this election looks firmly in Clinton's hands. Trump would need to overcome the current polling data by about 3-4 points to have a chance of winning the election. He could take all of the relatively close states and still win. As it stands now, the most likely scenario has her winning at 336-202. It could be as high as 366-172, or as low as 310-228. We literally need to think up hypothetical scenarios in which Trump rises in the polls on a magnitude of 3-4 points before he really has a shot at winning the White House. So yes, Clinton is still likely going to win, and Trump is still screwed, although less so than last time.
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