So, as you can see, I'm following the same template as I did last time, for efficiency's sake. I kind of wondered if it was worth pushing a new update on the election so soon because not much had changed, but then a bunch of polls came out in the last day or so that are NOT good news for Clinton, and things are looking more positive for Trump. A lot has happened in the last week. We've seen the DNC email leak, and a fairly strong performance by Trump last week at the Republican Convention, so Trump appears to be gaining a lot on Hillary. Without further ado, let's get to it and see the damage first hand.
Aggregate polling
Trump- 44.3%, Clinton, 44.1% (Trump 0.2%)
Ouch. Trump just decimated Clinton's lead and they are now tied for all intents and purposes in the popular vote. If you recall, last time I suggested Trump gaining 3 points could give him the election. We'll have to see how the electoral college turns out, but this is not looking good for Clinton. She is getting destroyed this week.
Aggregate polling with third party candidates
Clinton- 40.4%, Trump- 40%, Johnson- 7.2%, Stein- 3.0% (Clinton +0.4%)
Clinton is also more or less tied with Trump when third party candidates are counted. Not surprising. Her leads stay the same or are slightly better when third party candidates are counted.
Electoral College
Changes: I'm dropping Colorado from this last for now since Real Clear Politics did so and the margin is 8 points. Oregon is now considered in play, but still leans Clinton, and I would expect it to stay that way. The way things stand, Clinton is starting out with 202 electoral votes, with Trump starting out with 156. So she still has an institutional starting advantage regardless.
Arizona - 0.5% Clinton (no change)
Florida - 0.3% Trump (swung back to Trump, but still a de facto tie)
Georgia - 4.5% Trump (up from 4.2%)
Iowa - 0.5% Clinton (down from 3%)
Kentucky - 3.0% Clinton (no change, I still don't trust it)
Michigan - 5.2% Clinton (up from 5%)
Nevada - 2.0% Trump (up from 0.5%)
New Hampshire - 3.7% Clinton (up from 2.7%)
North Carolina - 2.0% Clinton (no change)
Ohio - 0.8% Clinton (down from 1.8%)
Oregon - 4.5% Clinton
Pennsylvania - 3.2% Clinton (no change)
Virginia - 5.3% Clinton (up from 4.8%, may be attributable to Tim Kaine as vice president)
Wisconsin - 5.6% Clinton (no change)
Maine CD2 - 1% Trump (no change)
Election Scenarios
Most likely scenario with toss ups - 295-178 Clinton
Most likely scenario (best guess) - 330-208 Clinton
All toss ups Clinton (Clinton + 1) - 360-178 Clinton
Clinton + 2 - 366-172 Clinton
All toss ups Trump (Trump + 1) - 295-243 Clinton
Trump + 2 - 280-258 Clinton
Trump + 3 - 272-266 Clinton
Trump + 4 - 248-290 Trump
All in all, while Trump made some significant gains, he really only shifted the race significantly in the really close match ups, and while the most accurate electoral counts are much more competitive compared to last time, as the race has pivoted toward Trump, it really is a drop in the bucket compared to what he needs. He won over a few more states and is more competitive, but the most positive REALISTIC scenario has him at 295-243, still in favor of Clinton. As a matter of fact, losing New Hampshire on the Trump + 3 model cost him the race there. To be fair, we don't have updated polls in Pennsylvania, and that could really make the difference in the +3 model. If new polls dropped the average below 3 points, then Clinton is done in that scenario. Even in the +2 model, if Trump can hit hard in PA, he can still win the election there.
So, we need to keep an eye on things. But despite many of the gains made by the Trump campaign in aggregate polling averages, the electoral college data does not pan out THAT much more favorably toward Trump, and he's still likely going to lose. He needs to make a concerted effort in a few target states and solidify leads in the states he's currently competitive in to stand a chance.
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