Saturday, September 30, 2023

Discussing the need for self interest in any morality worth its salt

 So, interesting debate on reddit, as a question was targetted at the left as to whether they're drawn to their ideals for moral reasons or for their own self interest. And as you guys would know, the answer is both. My views ARE in my self interest. You can't detach self interest from morality. Morality is the rules that govern how we should act, and there's nothing wrong with humans making morals that serve human interests. if anything, that's the freaking point. A moral system that does not do this is basely, arbitrary, and enforced on us without good reason. it's the morality of divine command theory and other authoritarians. And to me, that's a perversion of real morality. Real morality, on humanist principles, has some level of self interest to it. And my appeal to people to accept my morality is that...it normally serves their interests. My morals would serve the interests of the bottom 80% of society. It might come at the expense of the top 20%, but given they reap the lion's share of rewards in our society, I'm fine with some redistribution from the very top to everyone else. Some may not like it, but oh well, I really don't care. Generally I would argue that in advocating for left wing ideals, I'm doing so on the basis that it benefits YOU. And yes, it benefits me as well. I wouldnt be for these ideas if they didn't benefit me or came at my expense. But in a democracy, I'd expect the majority who does benefit to outvote the minority that does not, and if everyone voted in their actual rational self interests, we would all be better off. 

Of course, some leftists seemed appalled by this, claiming that those who do not do things purely for moral reasons devoid of self interest can't be trusted. Well, let me put it this way, this is why conservatives think left wing ideas dont work. Because they look at humans as self interested and that we need a system to motivate people in their self interests. And to some extent...I agree. I admit I diverge from conservatives a bit in my implementation of this. They seem to view humans acting in their self interests as evil as well, since they have this weird christian self denial thing going on, but I tend to embrace the selfishness. There's nothing wrong with being a little selfish. It's only wrong when that selfishness is to such a degree it leads to a worse world for all. But given I see some level of rules and advocacy for left wing collectivist ideals to serve individual self interests, I don't see the dichotomy some do. Which is why I'd argue my left wing ideals work, while a lot of more extreme ones dont.

Because, at the end of the day, humans are self interested. And if you want to impose a moral system on people, but people dont just do things out of the goodness of their heart, and need to be pressured to do something, and unless you give positive incentives based in self interest to do so, you get force. Which is why leftists end up going down the path of authoritarianism. Because their system destroys the capitalist incentive system, not merely modifies it like I want to, but DESTROYS it and expects it to be replaced by people behaving in a way they generally would not, and because that does not work, you get raw force picking up the slack. So a system in which people are subtlely or not so subtlely guided to take on unpleasant work is replaced by a system that forces you to do so at gunpoint. And rather than wearing down the negative sides of those incentives over time through reform like I desire to do, they just end up blowing up the system, and then you get something worse.

And of course, the idea that people wouldnt just give up their interests to serve the collective? These guys cant stand that, which is why in practice these guys end up just executing or imprisoning anyone who doesnt think exactly like they want you to. 

So yes, I think, at the end of the day, some moralizer who has some idea that they know what's good for others and expect them to act perfect by their moral system is the root of authoritarianism. This is true whether it comes in the form of the christian form of god, or from radical leftists. That mindset is dangerous and best off being avoided.

I know that this answer would likely piss off many leftists in that thread (some have argued that lefties like me are no better than conservatives, or that if we had our way we would just sit around all day and do nothing, which I'm not opposed to), well, they can cope. Because honestly, who would act against their self interests? Who would advocate for a morality that does not serve them? Brainwashed and ignorant people, that's who. I mean, no one should be forced to do something they dont wanna do unless there is some really good reason justifying it. For me, liberty is an important part of any moral system, and freedom is an important moral goal in itself. Liberty allows people to pursue their own interests and decide what's good for them. And while I fully acknowledge the excesses of base "right libertarianism" with its extreme focus on individualism and selfishness, I believe my own proposed compromises are adequate to overcome those flaws.

You see, when I came over to the left, in retrospect, I never stopped being a libertarian. I just developed a more sophisticated idea of what liberty really is and how to actually achieve it properly without the downsides that lead to a real world tragedy of the commons. Sometimes it is in our self interest to work together and pursue collectivist policies, but at the end of the day, the purpose of doing so should be to pursue our larger interests, whatever they may be. I never stopped being an individualist. Again, just a more sophisticated idea of what that is.

Discussing Jamal Bowman allegedly pulling a fire alarm

 So apparently Jamal Bowman allegedly pulled a fire alarm to delay a vote in congress. And I just wanted to briefly discuss it.

I think mccarthy's comments comparing it to january 6th are a bit extreme, but at the same time, yeah, no this is an unacceptable way to obstruct legislative proceedings. As they say, shouting fire on a crowded movie theater isnt acceptable speech, and neither is pulling a fire alarm intentionally when there is no fire. Someone could get hurt and you're causing a panic for no good reason. There are heavy fines and sometimes criminal punishments for doing such a thing. So if Bowman did this with the intent to obstruct a legislative proceeding, then he should face whatever consequences there is for such a thing.

It makes little to no difference to me that he's technically on my side. There are lines that should not be crossed, and this is one of them. 

Now, I will say, expulsion, which is what some republicans want, is a bit extreme. But fines and possible misdemeanor charges, sure. I'm more "slap on the wrist to know we mean business" here, not "this is unforgiveable and he should never engage in politics again." I would go that far with trump, but not with this. This is NOT january 6th by a long shot. It deserves consequences, but not severe ones.

RFK Jr. hints at third party run

 So, RFK Jr. is hinting at a third party run. And my initial opinion is "good riddance, don't let the door hit you on the way out." I have made my disdain for his candidacy clear, and believe he offers little of value. He's not a real democrat, and I don't mean that in the no true scotsmanny type ways the neolibs push it with claiming bernie aint a real democrat despite agreeing with them in principle 99% of the time (and if anything being more true to the roots of the party than the neolibs). The dude might have the kennedy namesake, but he seems more appealing to trumper types than actual democratic and/or leftie voters. The only lefties I see go for him are the ones who are brainless populists who think being anti elite is more important than policy, and seem to prioritize being "anti war" or "pro environment" without having much of substance to back those positions up.

So yeah, good riddance, please leave the democratic party. You don't really belong here, bye!

Now, to be fair, one aspect in which i sympathize with him is that the democratic party is...anti democratic. They arent holding debates in 2024 despite 2 alternatives to biden with significant numbers of voters (RFK and Williamson). I know it's not common for incumbent parties to hold debates when their guy is running for reelection, but no one really seems to want Biden, to be perfectly honest. He's just kinda there and forced on us. 

And I know RFK is...a crank, and williamson has some flaws that sometimes make it hard for the public to take her seriously, but I do believe in the idea of having open primaries where people can just walk in and challenge incumbents. The democratic party tries their darndest to foist their candidates on the public and then tell them they have to accept them or get the republican. It's why i myself voted green in 2016 and 2020. 

And for 2024, despite obviously backing biden for the GENERAL election, primary, I'm still pro williamson. I might not be a hardcore supporter of hers as her agenda differs a bit from my more human centered capitalist one, but she is still better than Biden on my priorities. And even if biden winning is inevitable, I do believe in maintaining political pressure from the left so biden keeps doing based things like he's been trying to do. 

But yeah. if you're unhappy with biden, is RFK "it"? No. He's not. He's another substanceless populist like trump and seems to appeal to the same kind of voter. The kinds of voters who feel like there's something deeply wrong with politics but lack the knowledge or conviction to know what exactly to so about it so they're just voting on vibes. I'd vote for cornel west in a heartbeat over RFK if I were gonna go third party. And cornel west, despite having a very similar platform to williamson, is a hard sell over biden given the current political environment and where I stand exactly on the issues. I might be willing to make my priorities known in a virtually nonexistent primary, but i do think this is an election where progressives have to play defensively for Biden, and that we're better off waiting until 2028 to actually push for things.

So yeah. I wish RFK the best of luck in his future endeavors, but im kinda happy to see him out of the party.

Friday, September 29, 2023

A quick response to the republican debate

 So, the second debate was last night. I actually thought it was tonight, only to find out half way through it was going on. And I was kinda tired and sick last night (dealing with another cold...yuck), so I ended up watching it today.

And...it was a crapshow. As other commentators I've watched have already said, no one really won. It was just a bunch of bickering and arguing, and platitudes, and lies, and no real solutions to anything. And at the end of the day, it doesn't really matter as Trump has more support than everyone on that stage combined. 

If I were to give it a shot to discuss who "won" in the sense of who sounded the best...eh....I think Tim Scott came off as a lot better this time, and Nikki Haley was a close second for me. Pence and Christie sounded pretty mid this time around. DeSantis was okay too. Ramaswamy had that same "love him or hate him" vibe from the first one, he was very charismatic, but he also had no idea what he was talking about at times, so he's going to be divisive just for that. I get wanting to appeal to the next generation, but if this is the next generation of conservatives...just....abandon ship. The old guys at least know what they're talking about policy wise, this guy is just trying to position himself as a successor to trump, and the inheritor of trump's legacy and "america first" movement. And Burgum...he was okay, but like always, kinda invisible. 

All in all, none of them really stood out, minus ramaswamy if you're into conservative populism. And there was a lot of yelling and bickering over nothing.

Given the economy is kind of my thing, I would like to say a few things on that though. A lot of candidates were doing things that I've outlined in previous articles. They were attacking Biden simply because he was in power, without having many ideas themselves. They'd act like we're living in a dystopia simply because Biden was president and liberalism is bad, despite offering few solutions themselves. What did they offer? THe same false promises of more jobs and growth. Ya know, the things we've tried for decades but things dont get any better? Heck, we're already at full employment and a lot of rich people want the federal reserve to raise rates to actually drive people back into desperation. THey think workers are getting too uppity and asking for too much. And if you notice none of these guys seem to support the unions. They actually criticized them going on about how they wanted higher pay and to work less hours. How dare they /s. 

I keep saying it, guys, the republicans dont have solutions. They're just attacking Biden because hes currently in charge and an easy target. Biden is actually doing a decent job by conventional metrics. Full employment, bringing jobs back to America, he's doing all the things trump promised and he's still being crapped on.

Also, a lot of conservatives have a weird obsession with mexico and the border. Screaming about fentanyl and I think at one point they were talking about war with Mexico? Like wtf?! On the fentanyl thing, I always hear conservatives screaming about it, and quite frankly, it seems silly. You ask a conservative its like they think fentanyl is just randomly laced in everything. Im not worried about it. It seems to be hyped up like finding razor blades in halloween candy. Not saying it cant happen, but unless youre looking for drugs, i cant see how anyone would end up getting poisoned by that. And if you do look into illicit drugs and end up consuming something laced with something else...well...that's kind of the risk you take when dealing with an unregulated black market. I personally aint super sympathetic to that since it doesnt seem like something that is gonna happen to people unless you are into shady stuff, but let's say i were gonna be more compassionate. Okay, what are good solutions to this? Uh...end the war on drugs? Decriminalize that stuff? Legalize and regulate the less hard ones? Have those drug and detox centers liberals want where people can shoot up without fear of ODing? It's not like solutions aren't there. Conservatives are talking a big game about how they care about people ODing on fentanyl but they once again arent willing to embrace solutions that actually fix the problem. They just weaponize it to instill fear in people and make them obsessed with the southern border. 

Honestly, I could go on and on. But I'd prefer not to. Go down the line and I just dont have much in common with the right any more. My ideas actually came from opposing them. And my ideas actually make the most sense when you consider the kinds of policies conservatives like those on stage here like to support. 

Honestly, the whole thing was a crapshow, and the worst part is none of these guys are gonna win anyway. Again, trump has more support than all of them combined. As some mentioned, this is more an audition for VP, and quite frankly, on that front, Ramaswamy is probably gonna win that one as he's the biggest bootlicker on that stage. The others represent the older pre 2016 conservatism no one seems interested in any more. Ya know, the ideals I abandoned. Well, now most of the country has moved on, with most of those guys either becoming democrats or trumpers. How far Reagan's movement has fallen. I mean it was never great but it's gotten progressively worse over the past 43 years. As some commentators have said, Reagan couldnt even win a primary in the modern republican party any more. 2016 was a realignment for better or worse and the republicans are all in on trumpism whether the establishment likes it or not. 

Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Responding to criticism of my 2024 political forecast

 So, I ended up posting my map on the yapms subreddit since they seem into that sort of thing and I got a criticism that I think is worth discussing. Basically they said that I can't just shift polls 6 points and have it be accurate because the shifts might manifest differently on the state level. And he's....totally right. Maybe some states like Arizona would shift less than say, Florida. It's possible there are localized effects that this prediction won't pick up.

HOWEVER, I do want to keep a few things in mind. First of all, yesterday's prediction was just a best attempt at approximating things RIGHT NOW. Right now, we have limited to no state wide data on polling. Most polling organizations aren't even polling states yet. So I'm deriving a scenario based on a single national number. And....all things considered, I don't think it's unrealistic. Basically, this IS roughly what a scenario with trump up 1.5% in the national polls would look like. And it seems not all that different than 2016's actual results, minus nevada shifting to the red column. But yeah, this is basically what I would expect to happen roughly.

Keep in mind I internally debated whether trends applied nationally or not, and whether states will respond the same way to a national shift in polling one direction or another or whether states should be treated separately. And I think the "trend" model is roughly accurate. When one state shifts, and the national polling shifts, the rest likely shift too. This is not to say this is uniform. We saw more significant than expected shifts from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan than we did in the rest of the country. So there are some localized effects there, but at the same time, this is really just an approximation based on limited data. I'm not gonna say "well the rust belt is gonna shift more than expected and the sun belt less", that might happen, but until we see polling numbers on the individual state level, I think looking at the previous election's national environment is probably the best approximation. As I said, I plan to make more serious predictions when we have more data in mid 2024. Right now, that's around 9 months away. So this is the best we're doing for now. 

And one last thing. Given the margins that AZ and GA went blue last time, ANY shift in national polling away from the democrats is going to flip those states. GA went blue by a margin of 0.2%. AZ went blue by 0.3%. At that point, you only need like 5% of the projected national shift to apply to those states to flip them. I just don't see AZ or GA going blue this election style as long as the national numbers look as they do. Maybe they won't go red by a massive 5-6% margin like I projected, but if the shift is minimized in those states, maybe by 2-3%? Electoral college result looks about the same. 

Tuesday, September 26, 2023

Attempting to build a model of what the 2024 presidential election will look like based on current data

 So, I know that it's very early. Way way WAY too early, but I wanted to try to build a model for what the 2024 election would look like with current polling data vs 2020. Now, I do want to say that what I come up with should be taken with a grain of salt. I expected, based on where we were in 2021 for the 2022 mid terms to be a complete and utter disaster for the democrats. But then roe v wade was overturned and the numbers went in a much different direction. I would probably say the best time to start SERIOUS projections would be June 2024 or so. By then we will know who the nominees probably will be with some level of certainty, and states do more in depth polling on the state level. 

Right now? There are too many variables to know for sure, and so much can change over the next year or so. Still, I know a lot of people are already doing doomer projections and arguing that not much will likely change, so I wanted to give my input of what the 2024 election will look like with current polling.

Republican & Democratic primaries

Right now, and I believe this to be the case barring health issues or legal troubles, but Biden and Trump are both heavily favored to be their respective parties nominees for president. It's not even competitive. 

Trump has 57% of the vote in his party, with the next nominee, Ron Desantis and having 14.5%. From there, you got Haley and Ramaswamy at around 5-6%, and it just gets worse from there.

I just don't see the republican base shifting away from Trump, and it's gonna take a heart attack (health issues) or literally being thrown in prison to stop that. I'm not saying this can't happen because Trump is, in fact, old, and he is, in fact, dealing with legal issues, but I wouldn't count on it from a normal polling perspective.

The same is true of the democrats and Biden. Biden is at 65%, with Kennedy at 14.9% (why?!) and Williamson at 4.9%. Once again, barring some sort of medical crisis, which could happen at Biden's age, I just DON'T see him being replaced.And if he was, we would probably get vice president Harris being the obvious shoe in whether we like it or not. So let's just assume a Trump vs Biden matchup. I mean, at 40-50% ahead in both camps, we're talking Z scores in the 10+ range, which means virtually no probability for error here. Not saying it can't happen, but it would take either a nation wide shift in polling, or some sort of issue just flat out stopping those two from running. Given polls are snapshots in time, well, these things CAN change, which is why I've been reluctant to do a forecast like this, but assuming that they don't yeah. 

The general election

Right now, Trump has a 1.5% lead in national polling. I crap you not. Trump is actually ahead. And that ain't good because, well, remember discussions from last time about how the dems need a 3%+ lead just to maintain a roughly 50% shot at the presidency? Yeah...and they're 4.5 points underwater...

I mean, remember how razor thin the margins were with Biden having a 7.2% lead in the polls last time (which translated to a 4.5% lead in practice?). What about in 2016 about how Hillary lost with a 3.2% lead in polling and a 2.1% lead in the popular vote? So yeah, the dems are significantly underwater right now. 

If we were to apply my 2020 electoral college to popular vote model to current 2024 polling, we would get roughly a 85-86% chance of a Trump win, or a 14-15% chance of a Biden win

Or how about this? Biden won by 4.5% in the popular vote last time, and he's now down 1.5% to Trump. So say we took 2020's election results, and shifted the electoral college by 6 points. This is basically what the prediction would look like:

State

Election result 2020

2024 estimate

Z score

% Biden Win

% Trump Win

EV if Biden wins

EV if Trump wins

Iowa

-8.2%

-14.2%

-3.55

<0.1%

99.9%<

413

131

Ohio

-8.0%

-14.0%

-3.5

<0.1%

99.9%<

407

148

ME-2

-7.4%

-13.4%

-3.35

<0.1%

99.9%<

390

149

Texas

-5.6%

-11.6%

-2.9

<0.1%

99.9%<

389

189

Florida

-3.4%

-9.4%

-2.35

0.1%

99.9%

349

219

North Carolina

-1.4%

-7.4%

-1.85

3.2%

96.8%

319

235

Georgia

0.2%

-5.8%

-1.45

7.4%

92.6%

303

251

Arizona

0.3%

-5.7%

-1.43

7.7%

92.3%

287

262

Wisconsin

0.6%

-5.4%

-1.35

8.9%

91.1%

276

272

Pennsylvania

1.2%

-4.8%

-1.2

11.5%

88.5%

266

291

Nevada

2.4%

-3.6%

-0.9

18.4%

81.6%

247

297

Michigan

2.8%

-3.2%

-0.8

21.2%

78.8%

241

312

NE-2

6.5%

0.5%

0.13

55.2%

44.8%

226

313

Minnesota

7.1%

1.1%

0.28

61.0%

39.0%

225

323

New Hampshire

7.4%

1.4%

0.35

63.7%

36.3%

215

327

Maine

9.1%

3.1%

0.78

78.2%

21.8%

211

328

Virginia

10.1%

4.1%

1.03

84.8%

15.2%

209

341

New Mexico

10.8%

4.8%

1.2

88.5%

11.5%

196

346

Colorado

13.5%

7.5%

1.88

97.0%

3.0%

191

356

New Jersey

15.9%

8.9%

2.23

98.7%

1.3%

181

370

Now, there's a lot to unpack here. For reference, I shifted the entire 2020 election over to Trump by 6 points, accounting for shifts in polling. This caused 6 states to defect to Trump: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan. All the usual suspects that seem to define who wins a modern presidential election, with 5 of those (minus nevada) being the ones that swung from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020. A 6 point shift toward Trump would represent a shift back to 2016. Thankfully, after Michigan, Biden kind of has a nice plateau to act as a buffer. Still, this would quickly being NE2, Minnesota, and New Hampshire into swing state distance, with Maine, Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado, all comfortable non swing states becoming swing states. On the flip side, Iowa, Ohio, ME2, Texas and Florida all become so out of reach for democrats that they stand virtually no chance of winning there. And you can see how that translates into probabilities. This is why I rarely look at states outside of the margin of error, you very quickly end up with scenarios where one candidate has a 99.9%+ chance of winning and yeah it's not even worth measuring.

But all in all? Biden, based on this exercise, currently has a 8.9% chance of winning, with Trump having a 91.1% chance. This is literally worse than Trump's 2020 chances vs Biden. The electoral margin is expected to be 312 to 226 in Trump's favor, shifting from the 303-235 the post 2024 electoral map would yield for the same results as 2020, and resemble Trump's 2016 electoral victory. 

So yeah, if things continue like this, democrats are SCREWED.

Of course, I expected the dems to be screwed in the 2022 mid terms this time in 2021, but things changed. And things CAN change. Going back to 2020 actual numbers vs 2024's polling, there are a lot more undecided voters. Biden won 51-47 to Trump in 2020. Right now, however, we're talking 46-44. And I would say Biden stands a better chance than is portrayed by this logic: the people who are going to vote trump have already made up their mind, people are going ride or die on him. They dont care about his criminal charges, they dont care about January 6th, they are die hard BELIEVERS. Meanwhile what happens on the dem side? Well, a lot of people dont actually LIKE biden. Myself included. I admit I have warmed up to him as I see him doing some progressive stuff, but I'm not passionate for the guy. I mean, I have entertained going for Marianne Williamson and Cornel west over him.

But...at the end of the day, the dems know most will vote for him anyway whether they like it or not, and you're right, we will. Even I will probably be voting for Biden this time whereas I didn't in 2016 and 2020. And as long as the dems dont really flaunt this fact and shove it in peoples' faces without offering anything, there doesnt stand to be a reason why most swing voters won't just...do it again.

I mean, do they really want trump? When you're not in the cult, Biden might actually...appeal to you. He's a relatively inoffensive centrist to normie swing voters and while his record isn't amazing and people have obvious questions over stuff like the economy, inflation, etc, I mean, it's not really his fault.

So idk, it really depends what's worse, peoples' grievances against Biden, or people being so horrified the orange nutcase, who should be behind bars btw in my opinion, is running again and actually has a chance. I honestly think the fear of another trump presidency will motivate swing voters who currently can't commit to Biden currently more than whatever Biden's flaws are. I dont think this is 2016 again. Trump is more dangerous this time, we know what we're getting, and Biden has made some of the compromises needed to win over voters he didn't necessarily win in 2016.

As such, I could see the 2024 election follow 2020 pretty closely, just as the 2022 mid terms did. 

Still, based on the existing polling data and where we are now, if the election were held today, Trump wins overwhelmingly. It's actually scary how strong his numbers are. Not even Clinton polled this bad last time around. If anything throughout 2015 she was the overwhelming favorite nationally and would crush republicans. It only evened up as we got into 2016. It's possible that will happen here, where the poll numbers will spike for Biden and lag for Trump. Perhaps trump is the clinton of 2024. Kind of funny to see.

Anyway, that's why I don't normally do forecasts like this that early. It's a lot of effort (I literally just spent 2 hours making this) and honestly, the whole thing could be quickly invalidated. But I did want to explain exactly where the current polling stands. Biden seems as screwed as Trump did in 2016 when I started doing forecasts, although given how that turned out, again, that could easily happen here. We'll just have to wait and see.

Anyway, expect me to have more accurate election predictions come mid 2024.