Election Update 12/29/2023

 So, you know what? I'm probably just gonna do these monthly at this point, although I might ramp it up closer to election day next year.

At the end of the year, things don't look good for Biden. 

Trump is at 2.3% in polling nationally, which puts Biden about 5 points underwater of where he needs to be to roughly tie Trump in the electoral college. 

As for the state level data:

State	Margin	Z Score	% D Win	% R Win	EV if D Wins	EV if R wins
Maine	Biden +11.0%	-2.75	99.7%	0.3%	143	398
New York	Biden +10.0%	-2.50	99.4%	0.6%	171	395
Washington	Biden +10.0%	-2.50	99.4%	0.6%	183	367
New Hampshire	Biden +8.6%	-2.15	98.4%	1.6%	187	355
New Mexico	Biden +8.0%	-2.00	97.7%	2.3%	192	351
Virginia	Biden +4.0%	-1.00	84.1%	15.9%	205	346
Colorado	Biden +4.0%	-1.00	84.1%	15.9%	215	333
Minnesota	Biden +2.5%	-0.63	73.6%	26.4%	225	323
NE2 (estimated)	Biden +1.9%	-0.48	68.4%	31.6%	226	313
Wisconsin	Tie 0.0%	0.00	50.0%	50.0%	236	312
Pennsylvania	Trump +1.0%	+0.25	40.1%	59.9%	255	302
Nevada	Trump +4.0%	+1.00	15.9%	84.1%	261	283
Michigan	Trump +4.8%	+1.20	11.5%	88.5%	276	277
Arizona	Trump +4.8%	+1.20	11.5%	88.5%	287	262
Georgia	Trump +5.2%	+1.30	9.7%	90.3%	303	251
Texas	Trump +8.0%	+2.00	2.3%	97.7%	343	235
Iowa	Trump +8.0%	+2.00	2.3%	97.7%	349	195
North Carolina	Trump +9.0%	+2.25	1.2%	98.8%	365	189
Florida	Trump +10.0%	+2.50	0.6%	99.4%	395	173
Ohio	Trump +10.0%	+2.50	0.6%	99.4%	412	143
ME2 (estimated)	Trump +10.0%	+2.50	0.6%	99.4%	413	126

Yep, as I said, almost 5 down in the electoral college. Michigan and Arizona share the tipping point status. Trump needs both of them to win, while Biden can win with one of them. 

All in all, Trump has a 88.5% chance of winning, the same chance I gave Biden in 2020 in my final analysis. Biden only has a 11.5% chance of winning. This isn't good. For most of the year I've had closer to a 70-30 split, so seeing it go this hard toward a 88-12 or so split is not really good. 

The likely electoral outcome is also split two ways because Wisconsin is literally 50/50 right now. if Biden gets it, it's 236-302 in Trump's favor. If Trump gets it, it's 312-226 is Trump's favor. Doesnt matter either way as Biden will lack the electoral votes, it is worth mentioning. 

So yeah. I'm ending this year electorally on a pessimistic note. Biden looks like he's screwed. The democrats look like they're screwed. The fascist looks like he's gonna win the white house next year. And that should scare all of us. It was all fun in games with all of the crap he was talking in 2016 but given his literally incited an insurrection and he's saying all kinds of crazy authoritarian things....guys...I'm scared. Can we NOT elect this guy again? Please? I know Biden aint great, but at least he won't let the country descend into an even darker age.