So...2024 broke the left. And...it's weird. Now people who were die hard Biden bros are now radicalizing into anti establishment progressives (to be fair Vaush has always been a leftist...), and people like me who were anti establishment progressives are turning into "democratic party shills", kind of. I mean, I'm not really a shill. I'm kind of in that Vaush territory of obviously being to their left but arguing to vote for democrats because of harm reduction, while these guys are like HELL NO I AINT VOTING FOR GAVIN NEWSOM.
So what's Vaush's argument? Well, it's still harm reduction. It's based on the idea that he advocated for people to vote for Biden in 2020 and 2024, people didn't in fact vote for him, and then the democrats turned around, did nothing, and then Trump came back in 2024 FAR WORSE than he was in 2020. Like...if Trump won 2020, he would've been a lame duck, would've been an ineffective president and then left office, but the democrats winning put their own gross incompetence on to such a blunt display that it caused Trump to win again. Meanwhile, Trump started out relatively tame, went bonkers when he lost 2020, been on the big lie ever since, and now he's morphed into full blown authoritarianism and fascism. Basically, if Trump won in 2020, we'd be in a better timeline.
Now, to be fair, this is the same argument I've been making since 2016. in 2016, I figured I didnt want clinton to win because she'd do nothing with her power, and then the GOP would come back in 2020 and win big, possibly establishing a mandate. It would be better for Trump to have a relatively ineffective presidency because the dude was a moron who didn't know what he was doing, had no real agenda, no real means to materialize his agenda, etc. But he would be bad enough that people would look at that and go "yeah let's never do that again." And then we'd come back, run Bernie (hopefully the democrats would learn their lesson) and then we'd be in the GOOD timeline.
However, I must admit, I did make some miscalculations, some of which I was warned about.
1) The republicans were able to fill 3 SCOTUS seats. To be fair, part of this is the dems being their own corrupt mess of incompetence too. RBG shouldve resigned during the Obama era instead of dying of cancer under trump. And then they filled scalia and kennedy's seats. This has shifted the courts to the right, leading to an era of right wing judicial activism that largely benefits trump. This isn't fatal in and of itself since I do believe we have a shot with thomas, alito, and roberts have their seats up for grabs in the 2030s some time, but right now, SCOTUS can't be trusted to contain this trump administration in his second term. It would be one thing if they acted like legit constitutionalists, but they're not.
2) The democrats never learned, tried the same 2016 playbook in 2020...and 2024...and probably in 2028....
3) That trump would be fundamentally unpopular after his first term. He hasnt been. He only narrowly lost 2020 and in 2024 he still had a coalition behind him. Even now, with the authoritarianism and concentration camps, politics has only shifted about 8 points to the left, which is substantial, but not like, coalition breaking. His coalition is still viable, and will remain viable for some time to come.
4) Knowing the future of MAGA and the GOP is tenuous, the GOP sees their future in voter suppression and radically changing the demographics of the country by purging and disenfranchising certain demographics hostile to its interests, and they are in a very real position with a very real danger to do this. This could head off any Obama era "coalition of the ascendant" that would otherwise happen.
I'm not saying that we'd be in a better timeline had Clinton won in 2016. I do believe Vaush is right in that democratic incompetence and unwillingness to fight would get us in some variation of total GOP domination one way or another. If clinton won in 2016, she'd lose 2020 in a landslide, giving the GOP an in that way. But I am just pointing out that I thought like Vaush back in 2016 and 2020, and how the solution was to refuse to vote democrat to force them to change. But the GOP is doing unimaginable damage now, and the dems still havent learned, and quite frankly dont seem interested in learning. These are very dangerous circumstances.
And honestly? The fact that Trump is now so dangerous is why I sound like Vaush. In 2016, I'd argue we had the luxury of being able to pull off a protest vote. Trump wasnt that dangerous. He was just a normal politician at that stage as far as I'm concerned. While he always had some authoritarian impulses, it seemed clear that we had enough checks and balances to contain him if he tried anything. I mean, back then the GOP were so called "constitutionalists", and I believed the GOP itself would support those principles enough where they would push back against anything too crazy and authoritarian. And you know what? They kinda did. Trump tried January 6th, he failed, in part because of Mike Pence, his own VP, and the system worked. The system worked. it stopped trump's attempted coup.
But things are different now. He went insane with the big lie since losing 2020, and in 2024, he morphed into something much darker. He wasnt just getting normal republicans in his cabinet, he was getting loyalists. He had the heritage foundation write project 2025. He had a plan to consolidate power. He had a cooperative congress, a cooperative supreme court. And he's GOING FOR IT. He's trying to dismantle our democracy.
Look, for years, I've criticized the democratic party for being useless. And I still do. Their uselessness is on full display during the trump era. Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries are a joke. They are not vigorously opposing Trump. And most 2028 candidates are establishment lightweights who won't be able to deliver better than Biden. Even if they win in 2028, and if we still have fair elections, they should, quite comfortably, we're at a D+8 scenario right now give or take based on more recent polling projections, they're gonna make the same mistakes Biden did and then lose again.
And the next wave of MAGA? Hooh boy. We're already seeing outlines of what they could be. If you think these guys are bad? The next wave WILL be worse. They'll be the Nick Fuentes types, the MTG types, ya know that anti establishment "America first" faction that sounds more and more like outright fascists. Trump is fascist lite. He has authoritarian tendencies but lacks the ideological commitment to the bit. he only cares about power. The next wave are gonna be the true believer types who are ideologically committed to the bit and who are openly fascist and white supremacist. That's where we're going.
And I would agree with Vaush, the only way to head off this fate is if the democrats themselves change. But that's probably the worst thing about all of this. it seems quite clear that they have no intention of being responsive to the voters and will just come back every 4 years and demand we support them to avoid the fascist, and we're in a tough situation where we're darned if we do, but also darned if we don't.
In 2016 and 2020 I saw through their behavior, and I responded with their threats with my own that if they dont appeal to my politics, I aint gonna vote for them. It's a reasonable reaction in a world where democracy is assumed as a constant. You vote for a third party, the democrats lose until they get the message, and then they change. But that CAN take a few cycles of repeated losses to actually make it sink in. Here's the thing. We no longer have that luxury. Trump and his administration is too dangerous, and I'm worried about us having free and fair elections THIS YEAR. All it would take is a few congressional bills making it to his desk and him being able to implement strict voter ID laws, or destroying mail in voting, or reducing the number of polling places, or having the federal government (his people) counting the ballots, or him declaring a national emergency that allows him to suspend elections. And none of these are all that unthinkable. All he needs is 218 house votes (or whatever a majority would constitute these days, 214? 215? 216?), 50 senate votes, vance voting as the tie breaker in the senate, the bill reaching his desk, him signing it, and when challenged, SCOTUS either rules in his favor or he just ignores SCOTUS and does whatever he wants anyway since he also controls the justice system via pam bondi and kash patel.
And that's what has me so freaked out. We dont have the luxury of forcing the dems to learn their lesson over a certain period of time of F-ing around and finding out. We need these guys out NOW.
However, Vaush is also right. If the dems truly learn nothing, they'll just make the same mistakes again, and we'll have a worse iteration of MAGA come back in 2032 that will not just finish what this one started, but worse.
It's as if...the democrats really need to learn not to push wishy washy centrists, and I'm with Vaush, stop putting these people up, no one likes them, give us fighters. it's what I said since 2016. BUT....again....can I really embrace third party voting when the consequence is the guy who wins is literally Hitler?
And that's the rub. Vaush is right. He's late to the party, or I'm early but he's right. BUT...maybe he's too late. I've been thinking about this, and I thought, okay, dealignment in 2016, maybe a realignment by 2028? (mirroring the new deal dealignment in 1968, but reagan winning in 1980) But with the 2028 candidates looking to be more Gavin Newsoms, and Kamala Harrises and Pete Buttigiegs and them running the party, I'm not seeing a progressive bench. bernie Sanders was our once in a generation realigning figure, and we blew it. And the democrats left are just...the same uninspiring clinton types I've been opposing all along. AOC is in there sure, but she's 4th and not well positioned for a win. We need a whole new candidate to come out of nowhere and win people over.
Idk...2016 might've been the realignment, and now we're screwed. The time to fight was 2016, and 2020, and now, it's too late. The current alignment seems locked in and I dont see a way out. It's just the whigs vs the jacksonian democrats again. An ineffective opposition party opposing a crazy populist. It didn't have to be that way, but that's the way it went.
So...idk. I'm kinda resigning myself to a vote for harris or newsom right now. That's where 2028 seems to be going. I hate that it's going that way, and by rights, these MFers should NEVER get our votes....but when I think about it...what would it take for me to vote democrat under those circumstances? It's basically that they'd literally need to run against someone like Hitler. And that's....precisely where we are. I hate to say it, but that's where we are.
Maybe I'll change my mind after 2026 if we win big. If we can get checks and balances in and get this national emergency that is the trump administration and MAGA cancelled, I'd be willing to behave more normally. And maybe it would be better for the GOP to win in 2028...ASSUMING we have checks and balances from congress and the courts to contain their worst impulses.
But right now, given that the trump administration is literally working on breaking elections and building concentration camps and terrorizing americans (not just illegal immigrants, but americans) with his ICE gestapo thugs, well....I can't afford to be picky. Democrats are sleeze balls, but at least they're not outright fascists.
Still doesn't mean I wont be critical of the party. I'm very much gonna be critical of the party. And thats the thing. Centrist dem apologists hate you just for criticizing them. I had some biden bro type trying their weird pam bondi esque talking points (see the hearing the other day?) about how biden was the most progressive president ever and youre dumb if you didnt like him and blah blah blah. F off. I mean, you can maybe force me to vote for someone like that given the alternative is a fascist, but you'll never get me to actually speak more positively about them than they deserve. Biden sucked. harris sucks. Newsom sucks. Democrats suck. DEMOCRATS SUCK.
I just understand that we're reaching levels of evil with trump that even I cant like...refuse to vote for them. So yeah, I guess I will support voting blue no matter who until this crisis passes. But like I said in 2024, this is a tactical retreat based on the circumstances, not a surrender. I dont like these people, and my principles have not changed. by rights, these people dont deserve a vote. But...again....if we dont back them, we might lose our democracy altogether. So let's not be stupid about this.
No comments:
Post a Comment