Election update: 8/12/16

We've had a lot of polls come out in the last 3 days so I figured I would update everything. TL;DR, it's not looking good for Trump yet again.

Aggregate polling

Clinton - 47.5%, Trump - 41.2% (6.3% Clinton)

Trump came up a point on the whole, although as we'll see, this doesn't really pan out for the electoral college.

Aggregate polling with third party candidates

Clinton- 44.0%, Trump- 37.6%, Johnson- 8.3%, Stein- 3.0% (6.4% Clinton)

Trump came up a point here too.

Electoral College

I'll stick to the same selection of swing states last time. For reference, I'm not including Utah because despite the media harping about Trump losing there, he's still ahead by quite a few points on average. I'm almost considering removing Maine CD2 because Maine is ahead by 8.5 points for Clinton and the CD2 is decided by congressional districts, but I don't know enough about how the votes for Trump would be distributed across the state. They could all be concentrated in urban areas with most congressional districts being more red. As such, I will leave it to the polling data even if it is questionable.

Arizona - 0.3% Trump (no change)

Florida - 3.3% Clinton (up from 2.7%)

Georgia - 1.2% Clinton (down from 1.8%)

Iowa - 0.4% Clinton (down from 0.5%)

Nevada - 2.3% Clinton (no change)

North Carolina - 2.0% Clinton (up from 1.3%)

Ohio - 2.6% Clinton (up from 0.8%)

Maine CD2 - 1% Trump (no change)

Trump made some slight rebounds in a few states, but also lost a bit in a few others. All in all, I would say he lost ground though because of the increases seen in Florida and Ohio.

Election Scenarios

Most likely scenario with no swing states (<3% lead) - 301-164 Clinton

Most likely scenario with toss ups (<1% lead) - 356-164 Clinton

Most likely scenario (best guess) - 362-176 Clinton

All toss ups Clinton (Clinton + 1) - 374-164 Clinton

Clinton + 2 -  374-164 Clinton

Clinton + 3 - 374-164 Clinton

All toss ups Trump (Trump + 1) - 356-182 Clinton

Trump + 2 - 325-213 Clinton

Trump + 3 - 301-237 Clinton

Ouch, as we can see, Trump's gains in Iowa and Georgia made little difference, but losing ground in Ohio and Florida hurt him significantly.

Conclusion

 We still have three months to go and people are still talking about post convention bounces, but all in all, Trump looks like he's getting worse and worse off, whereas Clinton is getting better and better off. I didn't even go into the states that aren't really considered swing any more. Clinton solidified leads there too in the last few days.