Okay, sorry, I hate having to do these so regularly, but things keep changing in a dramatic way. It's now safe to say Trump is screwed. I mean, the margins by which Clinton is winning are getting larger and larger by the day. I'm not kidding. Let's take a look.
Aggregate polling
Clinton - 47.4%, Trump - 41.5% (5.9% Clinton)
Clinton is now almost 6 points ahead of Trump. This is reminiscent of the first election analysis I did, although now the electoral college is backing it up.
Aggregate polling with third party candidates
Clinton- 42.5%, Trump- 38.4%, Johnson- 7.2%, Stein- 3.2% (4.3% Clinton)
The 4 way counts haven't changed much though. Perhaps third parties do have a very mild spoiler effect toward Clinton, or maybe it just has to do with the way polling is done. I don't know. Most changes seem to have gone on among the major candidates, not the third party guys though.
Electoral College
No changes from the other day in methodology. Just data.
Arizona - 0.5% Clinton (no change)
Florida - 2.7% Clinton (flipped from 0.3% Trump)
Georgia - 4.0% Trump (no change)
Iowa - 0.5% Clinton (no change)
Kentucky - 3.0% Clinton (no change)
Michigan - 6.0% Clinton (up from 5.2%)
Mississippi - 3.0% Trump
Missouri - 6.3% Trump
Nevada - 2.5% Clinton (no change)
New Hampshire - 7.0% Clinton (up from 3.7%)
North Carolina - 2.0% Clinton (no change)
Ohio - 0.8% Clinton (no change)
Oregon - 4.5% Clinton (no change)
Pennsylvania - 8.0% Clinton (up from 5.0%)
Texas - 5.0% Trump
Virginia - 5.3% Clinton (no change)
Wisconsin - 5.6% Clinton (no change)
Maine CD2 - 1% Trump (no change)
Election Scenarios
These new changes do make some differences in the electoral college level
Most likely scenario with toss ups - 330-172 Clinton
Most likely scenario (best guess) - 365-173 Clinton
All toss ups Clinton (Clinton + 1) - 366-172 Clinton
Clinton + 2 - 366-172 Clinton
Clinton + 3 - 372-166 Clinton
Clinton + 4 - 388-150 Clinton
Clinton + 5 - 426-112 Clinton
All toss ups Trump (Trump + 1) - 330-208 Clinton
Trump + 2 - 315-223 Clinton
Trump + 3 - 272-266 Clinton
Trump + 4 - 272-266 Trump
Trump + 5 - 265-273 Trump
Trump + 6 - 226-312 Trump
As we can see, Clinton is now dominating the map. She has Florida now, which has followed suit with Nevada in moving from a toss up toward Trump to leaning more heavily pro Clinton. She also is gaining in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, which were essential states for Trump to win. They're so far out of reach Trump would be better off taking on traditional democratic strongholds like Michigan, Wisconsin, or even Oregon. I don't know what's going on, but Trump is losing big. It could be because of ads (as a Pennsylvanian I can say Clinton is spamming ads literally every 2 minutes on TV). It could be because he's not moving into general election mode. It could be he's finally gone over the top with his craziness and is alienating people like crazy. I'm also seeing people saying the polls are "rigged", although I see little actual evidence of this that is actually viable and not taken out of context.
Conclusion
As it stands, Trump's changes of victory are getting more distant by the day. He now needs a 5 point handicap in swing states to have any chance at all. He's toast. He's screwed. If this kind of shift happened to Clinton, Trump might actually win this thing, but as it is her numbers are getting better and better and Trump's just keep going down.
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