I'm going to hold off on doing my normal election update for now, I might do it in the near future or put it off until there's more data. I want to talk about larger changes to the electoral college system going on here. Not just what's going on this year (although maybe some of that), but what will happen if trends continue. The republicans are in a downward spiral. They are losing ground this election badly. States that were once swing are turning into democratic strongholds, and states that were republican strongholds are becoming swing states or at risk for doing so in the future. It's hard to know if trends will continue or if this is just a one time think because Trump, but I've been noticing since 2008 it's been very difficult for a republican to win the presidency these days.
Let's look of some polling averages that my regular election updates won't necessarily cover since I typically focus on those with margins under 3-4% or so.
First, let's look at the current polling averages of some "swing states" that aren't even considered swing states any more.
Colorado - 10.8% Clinton
New Hampshire - 8.2% Clinton
Pennsylvania - 9.2% Clinton
Virginia - 11.2% Clinton
Wisconsin - 9.4% Clinton
Now, let's look at the trends these states have had in the past.
Colorado - Typically known to flip either way, but before 2008, was generally more red than blue. This state seems to have realigned itself along democratic lines in recent election cycles. Even then this is the first election it's up by double digits.
New Hampshire - Looking at it in context, New Hampshire isn't doing anything unusual. While in the Bush era they were more swing, they've been more consistent democratic voters since 2008, and they've voted by fairly large margins before here.
Pennsylvania - As I've said earlier posts, PA is a swing state in name only. Its margins are sometimes within swing state levels, but it's reliably blue in presidential elections. This is not out of the ordinary here.
Virginia - Virginia has been reliably red until 2008. Since then, it's become more of a swing state, and this election, it's more or less solidly blue. This is a recent development, since I seem to remember last election it was the one state I was unsure of in my electoral projections, and the one state I actually got wrong. To see it up by double digits is a surprise.
Wisconsin - Wisconsin was really only swing during the Bush era, and in the Obama era, it was more strongly blue. There are no real changes going on this time.
So, we're not seeing huge changes in these states this year for the most part, although some states like Colorado and Virginia,which were former swing states, are turning more blue.
This is bad enough, since the republicans need a lot of these states to win. After all, the democrats start out with more electoral votes going into the election, where it's like they start halfway to the finish line to begin with. But wait, it gets worse for the republicans. Let's look at what's going on in more traditionally red states.
Arizona - Trump 0.3%
Georgia - Clinton 0.3%
Indiana - Trump 8.6%
Kansas - Trump 11.0%
Louisiana - Trump 12.0%
Mississippi - Trump 9.0%
Missouri - Trump 5.3%
North Carolina - Clinton 2.0%
South Carolina - Trump 3.5%
Texas - Trump 8.4%
Utah - 10.5%
I mean, if you look at these guys' voting records, you can do that here to your heart's desire, you can see these are solidly red states. They might have gone blue once or twice, maybe in 1996 or 2008, which were bad years for republicans, but other than that, when I think of them, I think red.
But as we can see, some of them are now REALLY swing state status, with some like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina being included in my electoral analyses, and the others are well within similar margins of other swing states mentioned above. Missouri has weaker margins for Trump than any of the five states mentioned above. South Carolina has little polling data, but what exists shows questionable margins too. Indiana and TEXAS have weaker margins than four of those five states (Texas is the biggest reliably red state there is). Mississippi, Kansas, Utah, and Louisiana now have similar margins to the most strongly blue states on that list.
It's hard to know if there's a long term trend here or if the people really just hate Trump, I think it's a combination of both. I mean, the republicans have been falling apart since 2008 and just aren't recovering, and they're just turning into increasingly worse versions of themselves like they're Majin Buu or something (that's a dragonball z reference for non anime fans). Even with the democrats being unpopular and not really having their act together this time, they're still winning by these insane margins. Some projections, including mine, have Clinton winning the election comfortably with no trouble at this point. And traditionally swing states are now polling just as strongly blue as much of the south, including republican strongholds like Texas.
If this trend continues and isn't a one time thing caused by Trump just being that awful of a candidate, then the republicans are dying out as they exist. It's hard to know which way it will go. On the one hand there is a clear generational gap in politics with modern conservatives primarily appealing to older voters and largely alienating younger voters. On the other hand, Trump is an extraordinarily weak candidate and someone else could have likely been a stronger opponent of Clinton's. Regardless, considering how much the GOP would have to dig themselves out of the hole to win the electoral college if this were just an ordinary post 2008 election, they still would be screwed. For the south to be just as in reach for the democrats as traditional swing states are to the republicans is just embarrassing and shows how badly the party is doing on a national level. The only reason they hold power locally is gerrymandering, voter suppression, and low voter turnout. When everyone turns out in presidential elections, the democrats wipe the floor with them. I expect them to fall apart or change their ideology significantly to remain relevant in the next few election cycles.
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